Thomas Friedman's flat world implies flat wages for equivalent work.
let's spend 20 seconds on this idea before ling out l
― sarahel hath no fury (history mayne), Saturday, 6 August 2011 12:29 (twelve years ago) link
"Am I even here now? What week is it? I'm Tom Friedman. I was talking to a taxi driver in Dubai yesterday. He taught me more about the global economy in five minutes than any of you could ever learn in your entire lives. Here what he said: A penny saved isn't a penny earned. It's a penny learned. That's why we need to create 'thin cities' made of polycarbon sheeting and guarded by solar-powered 'green nukes'. If we don't do it, that taxi driver will. And that can never be allowed to happen."
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, March 31, 2010 3:51 AM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink
― caek, Saturday, 6 August 2011 12:39 (twelve years ago) link
michael lewis's portrayal or S&P and other ratings agency in the big short makes them out to be a bunch of clueless ignoramus chumps
oh well
― 我爱你 G. Weingarten (dayo), Saturday, 6 August 2011 12:42 (twelve years ago) link
Reich: "We’d all be better off had S&P done the job it was supposed to do, [during the housing bubble]. We’ve paid a hefty price for its nonfeasance."
dude u have the wrong feasance there.
― if you hipster on your fixie tonight, dont forget, wear black. amen. (Hunt3r), Saturday, 6 August 2011 13:58 (twelve years ago) link
it's a good thing that protecting rich asshole "job creators" from paying more taxes is more important than our national credit rating
The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.
It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options.
The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/08/05/sp-downgrades-u-s-debt-rating-press-release/
― reggie (qualmsley), Saturday, 6 August 2011 14:55 (twelve years ago) link
Fuck the S&P, Krugman sez:
On the other hand, it’s hard to think of anyone less qualified to pass judgment on America than the rating agencies. The people who rated subprime-backed securities are now declaring that they are the judges of fiscal policy? Really?
Just to make it perfect, it turns out that S&P got the math wrong by $2 trillion, and after much discussion conceded the point — then went ahead with the downgrade.
More than that, everything I’ve heard about S&P’s demands suggests that it’s talking nonsense about the US fiscal situation. The agency has suggested that the downgrade depended on the size of agreed deficit reduction over the next decade, with $4 trillion apparently the magic number. Yet US solvency depends hardly at all on what happens in the near or even medium term: an extra trillion in debt adds only a fraction of a percent of GDP to future interest costs, so a couple of trillion more or less barely signifies in the long term. What matters is the longer-term prospect, which in turn mainly depends on health care costs.
― livin in my own private Biden hole (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 6 August 2011 14:56 (twelve years ago) link
yeah wondering what underlying factors are involved in this. putting my tinfoil hat on.
― 我爱你 G. Weingarten (dayo), Saturday, 6 August 2011 15:11 (twelve years ago) link
s&p were criminally negligent during the housing bubble . . . what i want to know is, how does them downgrading us to AA+ affect our day-to-day? is it just a symbolic gesture, or will my credit card interest rates go up etc.?
― reggie (qualmsley), Saturday, 6 August 2011 15:33 (twelve years ago) link
here's a good response to that
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/what-would-happen-if-us-debt-gets-downgraded/2011/08/05/gIQAx4NKxI_blog.html?wprss=ezra-klein
― iatee, Saturday, 6 August 2011 15:42 (twelve years ago) link
thanks! that's really helpful
― reggie (qualmsley), Saturday, 6 August 2011 15:55 (twelve years ago) link
Yeah, the US might be in a bad place, but fuck these negligent, incompetent S&P choads.
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 6 August 2011 16:22 (twelve years ago) link
Does anyone think that the last month or so has made the US economy look more stable? Or even had no effect on it's rating? Unfortunately, capitalism is based on perceptions to some degree, and S&P's decision shapes percepeption in a (perhaps small) way, and their decision is probably more based on perceptions than specific numbers.
― textbook blows on the head (dowd), Saturday, 6 August 2011 16:37 (twelve years ago) link
This downgrading is a good opportunity for poor, maligned US corporations to push that 'one-time' Corporate Tax Holiday they've been salivating over for a while.
"This MUST be done! Look at how much the economy is hurting!"
― Telephoneface (Adam Bruneau), Sunday, 7 August 2011 13:12 (twelve years ago) link
bloomberg reports carmen reinhart, senior fellow at the (way conservative) peterson institute, is arguing the following ~
A restructuring of U.S. household debt, including debt forgiveness for low-income Americans, would be most effective in speeding economic growth, said Carmen Reinhart, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
“Until we deal head-on with the fact that some of those debts are not ever going to be repaid, we will continue to have this shadow” over growth, Reinhart said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” airing this weekend.
dang
― reggie (qualmsley), Sunday, 7 August 2011 16:00 (twelve years ago) link
here is the point where i argue yet again for making student loan debt dischargeable in bankruptcy like other non-recourse debt.
― My name is Frunze. Learn it well it is the chilling sound of your doom (Eisbaer), Sunday, 7 August 2011 16:02 (twelve years ago) link
I think it's inevitable in the longer term
― iatee, Sunday, 7 August 2011 16:09 (twelve years ago) link
the eventual devaluing of the dollar is gonna be a good thing right, means I can move to a gold mine and pay off all my debt with just a day of work
― dayo, Sunday, 7 August 2011 19:39 (twelve years ago) link
Let's all start from zero.
― saint dominic's p4k review (Eazy), Sunday, 7 August 2011 19:41 (twelve years ago) link
i keep wondering if efficiency is eventually gonna outstrip capitalism, where half the country is unemployed simply cuz they're not needed anymore.....Soylent Green ya'll
― Neanderthal, Sunday, 7 August 2011 23:29 (twelve years ago) link
Or a pre-industrial situation, where 20-30% of the population is intermittently or always unemployed.
― Christine Green Leafy Dragon Indigo, Sunday, 7 August 2011 23:36 (twelve years ago) link
we already have them, they're called "retirees"
― Kerm, Monday, 8 August 2011 00:17 (twelve years ago) link
marx figured eventually we will be so efficient that we can spend all our time hunting
― max, Monday, 8 August 2011 00:24 (twelve years ago) link
krugman has been so weird on the debt downgrade. like i completely agree that the rating agencies have no credibility and that their business model is corrupt, but the downgrade was based on news that's been obvious to everyone on earth who cared to pay attention. i doubt that standard and poor's seeing what everyone else sees is going to shake up markets anymore than america's terrible political system already has. the only reason i can think of that he's so worked up about it is that he sees the process of destroying the government's credit as the right's way of attacking any semblance of the welfare state and thinks that the downgrade really strengthens their hand.
― circles, Monday, 8 August 2011 01:44 (twelve years ago) link
krugman has been so weird on the debt downgrade. like i completely agree that the rating agencies have no credibility and that their business model is corrupt,
don't think you have to go beyond this
― iatee, Monday, 8 August 2011 01:49 (twelve years ago) link
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/08/06-7
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/matt-stoller-standard-poor%E2%80%99s-predatory-policy-agenda.html
and from http://themoderatevoice.com/118895/sp-timeline-culpability-then-threats/ ---
http://themoderatevoice.com/wordpress-engine/files//2011/08/mcgraw-hill-theyrule-net.png
― j., Monday, 8 August 2011 02:38 (twelve years ago) link
(the diagram centers on mcgraw-hill because they own s&p.)
― j., Monday, 8 August 2011 02:39 (twelve years ago) link
mcgraw-hill like the same people that make textbooks??
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Monday, 8 August 2011 02:51 (twelve years ago) link
they also publish aviation week and own j.d. power and associates
― j., Monday, 8 August 2011 02:54 (twelve years ago) link
xpost
http://www.vaiden.net/quick_draw.jpghttp://www.wvah.com/programs/kingofthehill/hankhill.jpg
― Neanderthal, Monday, 8 August 2011 02:54 (twelve years ago) link
larry elliot's latest state of play article.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/07/global-financial-crisis-key-stages
he says we're less than halfway through a crisis that began in 2007.
― Dark Noises from the Eurozone (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 August 2011 11:39 (twelve years ago) link
And from David Harvey -
The perpetual accumulation of capital and of wealth is therefore crucially dependent upon the perpetual accumulation and expansion of debt. These two variables – accumulation of capital and the accumulation of debt – have in fact run alongside each other in the history of capitalism (go look at the data), both feeding and supporting each other. They occasionally get out of sync to create a crisis of the sort recently witnessed. What looks like a crisis of Greek sovereign debt is in fact a crisis of the financial system which arises because of a failure to find new ways to expand the surplus through reinvestment!A startling conclusion follows. A vote against further debt creation is a vote to end capitalism! Fortunately or unfortunately (depending upon one’s political point of view) the Koch Brothers and the Republican Party cannot see that. Marx had always hoped that rebellious workers might end capitalism. So far they have not succeeded. So maybe the Koch brothers and the Republican Party can succeed where the workers have so far failed. Marx might not have been too surprised at that. As he also gleefully noted, individual capitalists operating in their own self-interest often take actions that collectively threaten the continuity of capitalism as a whole.It is unlikely, of course, that the Republicans will stick to this crusading mission for very long. When in power their record is very different. The Reagan and Bush Jnr administrations were profligate in debt creation. (“Reagan taught us that deficits don’t matter,” famously said Vice-President Cheney). Nevertheless, short-term, the crusading Republicans may cause a lot of damage to the system they ostensibly support. As Marx also noted: the contradictions of capitalism move in mysterious ways.
A startling conclusion follows. A vote against further debt creation is a vote to end capitalism! Fortunately or unfortunately (depending upon one’s political point of view) the Koch Brothers and the Republican Party cannot see that. Marx had always hoped that rebellious workers might end capitalism. So far they have not succeeded. So maybe the Koch brothers and the Republican Party can succeed where the workers have so far failed. Marx might not have been too surprised at that. As he also gleefully noted, individual capitalists operating in their own self-interest often take actions that collectively threaten the continuity of capitalism as a whole.
It is unlikely, of course, that the Republicans will stick to this crusading mission for very long. When in power their record is very different. The Reagan and Bush Jnr administrations were profligate in debt creation. (“Reagan taught us that deficits don’t matter,” famously said Vice-President Cheney). Nevertheless, short-term, the crusading Republicans may cause a lot of damage to the system they ostensibly support. As Marx also noted: the contradictions of capitalism move in mysterious ways.
http://davidharvey.org/2011/07/the-vote-to-end-capitalism/
― Dark Noises from the Eurozone (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 August 2011 11:45 (twelve years ago) link
And from a Big Picture guest blogger -
No, the issue of ability of the United States to pay its debts is unquestionable by even Standard & Poor’s. And the propensity or willingness to pay its debts, despite the recent political debate, must be assessed relative to the entire history of the Republic. The federal government of the United States has always paid its obligations – for hundreds of years.So what’s all the fuss?The fact of the matter amounts to nothing more or less than that a private company elected to deliver a verbal spanking to the congress, executive and – by extension – the people of the U.S. for the messiness of its political process and its confused electorate. Effectively – the S&P pronouncement last evening amounted to not much more than a guest in your house telling your children to clean up their rooms “or else.” I don’t know about you, but in my case, at least, I would ask such a guest to apologize or leave.
So what’s all the fuss?
The fact of the matter amounts to nothing more or less than that a private company elected to deliver a verbal spanking to the congress, executive and – by extension – the people of the U.S. for the messiness of its political process and its confused electorate. Effectively – the S&P pronouncement last evening amounted to not much more than a guest in your house telling your children to clean up their rooms “or else.” I don’t know about you, but in my case, at least, I would ask such a guest to apologize or leave.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/on-the-sp-downgrade-of-the-united-states-of-america/
― Dark Noises from the Eurozone (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 August 2011 11:55 (twelve years ago) link
Look, I know these S&P guys. Not these particular guys — I don’t know John Chambers or David Beers personally. But I know the rating agencies intimately. Back when I was an in-house lawyer for an investment bank, I had extensive interactions with all three rating agencies. We needed to get a lot of deals rated, and I was almost always involved in that process in the deals I worked on. To say that S&P analysts aren’t the sharpest tools in the drawer is a massive understatement.Naturally, before meeting with a rating agency, we would plan out our arguments — you want to make sure you’re making your strongest arguments, that everyone is on the same page about the deal’s positive attributes, etc. With S&P, it got to the point where we were constantly saying, “that’s a good point, but is S&P smart enough to understand that argument?” I kid you not, that was a hard-constraint in our game-plan.
Naturally, before meeting with a rating agency, we would plan out our arguments — you want to make sure you’re making your strongest arguments, that everyone is on the same page about the deal’s positive attributes, etc. With S&P, it got to the point where we were constantly saying, “that’s a good point, but is S&P smart enough to understand that argument?” I kid you not, that was a hard-constraint in our game-plan.
http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2011/08/on-s-downgrades-and-idiots.html
― Dark Noises from the Eurozone (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 August 2011 12:01 (twelve years ago) link
dow opened 200 points down. happy times!
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 8 August 2011 14:11 (twelve years ago) link
the picture michael lewis gives in the big short is that only dunderheads wind up working at the ratings agencies. all the poindexters work for goldman sachs and j.p. morgan &c.
― dayo, Monday, 8 August 2011 14:14 (twelve years ago) link
krugz:
Maybe there is an S&P story — but not the one you think. Arguably, that downgrade will bully policy makers into even more deflationary, contractionary policies than they would have undertaken otherwise, which has the perverse effect of making US debt more attractive, since the alternatives are worse.
― Dark Noises from the Eurozone (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 August 2011 15:29 (twelve years ago) link
what scares me the most about all this is that war mobilization was the only way out of the 1937 retrenchment
― Dark Noises from the Eurozone (Tracer Hand), Monday, 8 August 2011 15:42 (twelve years ago) link
Yeah, I fear for our inability to drum up any pretext to go to war.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 8 August 2011 15:47 (twelve years ago) link
These days, who needs pretext? Or use of the word 'war'?
― Telephoneface (Adam Bruneau), Monday, 8 August 2011 16:04 (twelve years ago) link
No kidding. How many people are even aware of our third war right now?
― jon /via/ chi 2.0, Monday, 8 August 2011 16:06 (twelve years ago) link
what, that little thing?
― j., Monday, 8 August 2011 17:27 (twelve years ago) link
as if listening to the great financial minds at S&P opine on the creditworthiness of the US wasn't bad enough, look who's wasting valuable space in the NYT pontificating about the current financial mess.
― My name is Frunze. Learn it well it is the chilling sound of your doom (Eisbaer), Tuesday, 9 August 2011 17:54 (twelve years ago) link
i mean, really ... reading Henry Paulson talk about the current financial mess is like listening to David Berkowitz talk about Ted Bundy.
Seeing as almost non-existent interest rates can't be cut any more, would the Fed ever consider paying people to borrow money? It seems to me that would be highly stimulative.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 9 August 2011 18:04 (twelve years ago) link
war mobilization was the only way out of the 1937 retrenchment
Not the only way, but a very effective way, in that army enlistment and the draft gave 'employment' to large numbers of men who would otherwise have been filling jobs or else looking for them, plus it greatly expanded demand and put vast sums of money into circulation (much of which was sopped back up as war bonds).
But effective as it was, there's no requirement for starting a war to get the economy moving again, just as there are numerous ways to skin a cat.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 9 August 2011 21:06 (twelve years ago) link
the thing about that saying is i can never think of any other half-effective way besides "with a knife," basically.
― puerile fantasies (Matt P), Tuesday, 9 August 2011 21:13 (twelve years ago) link
i guess the only way out of this mess is knives!
― puerile fantasies (Matt P), Tuesday, 9 August 2011 21:15 (twelve years ago) link
How many people are even aware of our third war right now?
4th by my count
― satan club sandwich (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 10 August 2011 03:23 (twelve years ago) link
don't forget the war on christmas, too
― J0rdan S., Wednesday, 10 August 2011 03:24 (twelve years ago) link
lol
― tine nic (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 10 August 2011 03:37 (twelve years ago) link