2008 Primaries Thread

http://www.theodoresworld.net/pics/0907/hippieclintonsImage1.jpg

hillry ckinton mad uugky 1976

bill lookin mighty christlike

Interesting analysis of what's at stake in New Hampshire

Anyway, the above-linked article sets forth what I think is HRC's remaining move against Obama (n.1): That he's "too liberal." HRC, who now must react to Obama's Iowa win, can't move to his left, and she didn't gain enough traction with her No. 1 argument (that she's more "experienced" and "ready to lead from Day One"; maybe this argument works better in New Hampshire, but I doubt HRC thinks -- at this point -- she can rest on it). So the natural move is to Obama's right. And she can frame that argument in a way that doesn't necessarily isolate the left base, by arguing that she's better positioned to respond to the right's "attack machine," then trotting out all the things that machine supposedly will say about Obama.

I see the reasoning. But I think it also opens another line of attack for Obama about how the fight between HRC and him is about the past v. the future. HRC (and Bill Clinton) grew up politically in an era when the country was moving right, and if liberals were going to succeed, they had to move with it. That led to "triangulation," where Bill Clinton appealed to a diverse group of voters by distancing himself from both the Democratic and Republican parties. But now may be a different moment, giving an opening to a more progressive candidate, like Obama. The question, and the legitimate debate, is which direction the country is prepared to go to: center-right (HRC) or center-left to left (Obama). That question can also be seen as whether the country is where it was in the 90s (or even further right), which would support continuing the politics of the past, or at a different point, and ready for something new, which would perhaps support a more progressive Democrat.

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(n.1) I say it's her "remaining move" not because she's desperate, but because there are only so many options available to a candidate. She's already deploying her strongest argument: That she's more "experienced."

you didn't sleep much huh

lol. Sorry if I'm bombarding the thread too much.

About 5 hours of sleep. I'm up getting ready for a guitar class for me, and a piano class for my daughter. Then, sadly, probably to work.

bill lookin mighty christlike

He looks like Sam Beam, of Iron & Wine! I knew I liked that guy.

daniel, esq 2008 = kingfish 2004

lol

Will someone liveblog the debates tonight? Maybe on another thread?

daniel, esq 2008 = kingfish 2004

Hm. Not sure what this means, but it doesn't sound flattering.(n.1)

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(n.1) Nothing against Kingfish, btw. I only recognize the name.

hillry ckinton mad uugky 1976

FUCK YOU!

does anyone remember that britishes poster in 04 who used tell us v eruditely all this CW stuff we already knew? who was that guy again?

Ed

Tom Cl3veland or something wasn't it?

whatever happened to that guy?

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyid=2008-01-05T134259Z_01_N04274456_RTRUKOC_0_US-USA-POLITICS-POLL.xml

FUNFUNFUN

http://i13.tinypic.com/71pt75g.jpg
FUNFUNFUN

til Daddy takes the T-Bird away

We've come on holiday by mistake

NIGHTMARE VACATION

New poll has Obama beating Clinton by 10 in NH, and if Kerry's bounce in 2004 is any indication his lead is only going to go up from there. I hate to be too cocky, but... stick a fork in her.

WOW!

Hatch, are you the WFMU DJ of the same name?

THATS A HUEG MOTHERFUCKING BOUNCE RIGHT THERE!

lol - http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/fred_thompson_im_skipping_new_hampshire.php - i'm not working for McCain or anything

Yes indeed, that's me.

Don't count HRC out until at least early February. She obv. has money and organization, and those are v. important on 02.05.08 (more important than retail politics, since there are so many big states in play on one day).

if she loses nh its over

george will on obama:

Barack Obama, who might be mercifully closing the Clinton parenthesis in presidential history, is refreshingly cerebral amid this recrudescence of the paranoid style in American politics. He is the un-Edwards and un-Huckabee -- an adult aiming to reform the real world rather than an adolescent fantasizing mock-heroic "fights" against fictitious villains in a left-wing cartoon version of this country.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/04/AR2008010403561.html

obv hrc is playing thru to superduper tuesday, but she's clearly behind if she loses NH, and won't be looking too good if she comes in 3rd again in SC

shell take care of edwards in sc

That WP article is mostly about Huckabee (and, to a lesser extent, Edwards). And, in that regard, George Will is a Madisonian ''establishment GOP'' hack (i.e., for free markets and limited gov't; not an evengelical). A smart, articulate hack, to be sure, but a hack nonetheless.

I rarely agree with David Brooks, but his column yesterday made a good point.

"When an African-American man is leading a juggernaut to the White House, do you want to be the one to stand up and say No?"

If Obama sweeps the first four states--which will probably happen as long as he gets NH on Tuesday--it could be awfully damaging to the Clintons' reputation if they do decide to stay in the race through Super Tuesday. And even if she did stay in, she might be better off losing than pulling off an upset and potentially alienating a huge portion of the Democratic electorate.

she's not gonna drop out before super tuesday unless say edwards beats her in nh.

I just want to repost this for my own entertainment

http://slog.thestranger.com/files/2008/01/Romneypacksudgeyes.jpeghttp://slog.thestranger.com/files/2008/01/Romneypacksudgeyes.jpeghttp://slog.thestranger.com/files/2008/01/Romneypacksudgeyes.jpeg

literally the most terrifying .jpg on the internet

like, romney rectal examination> tubgirl> goats> 2girls1cup

goatse, even.

http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/thumb/f/f2/200px-Gumby_pokey.JPG

That WP article is mostly about Huckabee (and, to a lesser extent, Edwards). And, in that regard, George Will is a Madisonian ''establishment GOP'' hack (i.e., for free markets and limited gov't; not an evengelical). A smart, articulate hack, to be sure, but a hack nonetheless.

-- Daniel, Esq., Saturday, January 5, 2008 12:41 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Link

oh im fully aware of that; even though that article is 'mostly about' huckabee, those points are the most redundant in the discourse right now. The more interesting parts to me are his take on the dem candidates, and i think he really gets right to the point about what is grating about edwards (in the larger sense, i'm not about to get into his specific economic points and easy dismissal of corporations as the root of all evil)

daniel, esq 2008 = kingfish 2004

haha, thank God somebody else is there to dump links everywhere. There's no way i'm going back to heavy blog reading, due to anxiety levels and current non-desk-based job.

Altho, fun comment on Balloon-Juice about how when the BSRW machine comes about to aim at Obama, you just know they're going to start whispering about how he secretly fathered two black daughters.

Further confirmation of the biiiiig Iowa bump this poll conducted yesterday and today has Obama beating Clinton by 12 points in NH.

What is Wisconsin and why is it so unimportant?

What is Wisconsin? That is one of the greatest American mysteries.

O_O @ poll

Obama: Ecstasy & Agony [Jonah Goldberg]

This is just a late Friday night prediction. But after reading this regrettable excess from Ezra Klein as well as all of the more reasonable but nonetheless hopeful, proud, idealistic and sincere sentiments of pride and well-wishing for Obama as the first serious mainstream black contender for the White House (some, but by no means all, of these sentiments shared by yours truly) , I think it's worth imagining a certain scenario. Imagine the Democrats do rally around Obama. Imagine the media invests as heavily in him as I think we all know they will if he's the nominee — and then imagine he loses. I seriously think certain segments of American political life will become completely unhinged. I can imagine the fear of this social unraveling actually aiding Obama enormously in 2008. Forget Hillary's inevitability. Obama has a rendezvous with destiny, or so we will be told. And if he's denied it, teeth shall be gnashed, clothes rent and prices paid.

01/04 09:14 PM

Obama's up by 12 in New Hampshire? Wow. There are waves and there are waves. Implications: (a) HRC better recover fast, while there's time and (b) I hope Obama's momentum draws off lots of independent votes, so that -- on the GOP side -- Romney beats McCain, to crush McCain's supposed "momentum."

I wonder how Obama's big lead will impact independents. Will they jump on his bandwagon or, realizing that he's going to win the Democratic N.H. primary anyway, do they vote Republican, where they have more of a chance to impact the nat'l race (presumably by making McCain viable)? Any information on how independents will vote in N.H.?

Hatch, your WFMU show is v. good, btw.

romney is totally the kind of pretty boy flake that reminds me of jack ryan, the dude he was supposed to run against in IL who ended up folding in disgrace after it was revealed he took his wife to 'sex clubs' and encouraged her to have sex in public

the dude obama was supposed to run against, rather