Odyssey Dawn: a military operations in Libya thread.

CIA teams on the ground

gathering intelligence to direct airstrikes and to assist the few libyan officers working for the opposition in training.

maybe it'll work this time!

haha

there are a lot of reasons to oppose intervention in libya but afiac "arabs/muslims/libyans cant do democracy" seems like one of the worst

Mere orientalism

Re: Lebanon. Guessing that been stuck between Syria and Israel might, uh, put some strain on a country

A country, like many in the post European imperialist era that was formed from disparate elements that dislike and mistrust each other. The very fact that the president is supposed to be Maronite, the PM Sunni, the speaker of the parliament Shiite and the chief of staff Druze is the result of the worst kind of imperialist gerrymandering. I'm no fan of the Syrian Ba'athists or the Alawite elite in Syria but the impetus towards a 'greater Syria' isn't entirely devoid of historical relevance and prior to being manipulated by the French, the locals were, of course, under the dominion of the Turks.

The Alawite gang in Syria need war w/Israel and the Emergency Law to maintain themselves in power and I'm sure they fear that, if allowed to vote, the majority of the Syrian people wouldn't be terribly well-disposed toward them.

That's a great link, max

"There’s a dangerous narcissism in imagining the West has a monopoly on things like imperialism, and that kind of solipsism is often particularly tempting and satisfying to even those in the West that think bad things about “the West”: it allows us to maintain the belief that the West is still the center of the universe, even if it’s now the Devil rather than God. But being opposed to the devil we know doesn’t change the fact that there actually are other devils. And a legacy of anti-colonial thinking has left a lot of leftists unable to understand that being the enemy of our enemy doesn’t make someone our friend. Just because the great powers of The West are imperialist in some sense doesn’t mean that those who oppose them in some sense — people like Gaddafi, Chavez, Mugabe, or Ahmadinejad — actually are anti-imperialist."

so a lot of the anti-intervention voices ive been reading have been holding up kosovo as--i guess--a disaster? or at least a good example of why intervention isnt the right policy. is this the general sentiment? this was all before my political consciousness and ive never really read about it, but i always thought u.s. involvement was more or less "successful"?

Again, non-intervention in Kosovo might have been worse. It's still a major cf but then, so is Serbia generally and the Russians' paternalistic attitude towards the southern Slavs doesn't entirely help.

The Balkans can be seen through a post-imperialist lens as well, it's just that the imperialists were Turks.

Maybe I've been looking in the wrong places but I was under the impression that the Kosovo intervention was generally deemed a success, thought not an unqualified one. But there seems to be a growing argument that it was wrong, for a variety of reasons, none of which I find convincing and some of which seem to involved whitewashing Milosevic. I don't know why this is such a popular POV now, unless it's the internet echo-chamber effect - the same phrases and stats keep recurring.

This guy represents the anti case pretty clearly, though without the pro-Milosevic stuff you find in the comments below

The 3 responses that Glen Greenwald linked to on Salon responding to Juan Cole did not seem very impressive to me. Some (or 1) mentioned the Balkans--the long stalemate there.

I was unimpressed with Cole's two-line response from a couple of days ago.

Links?

Kosovo (like Libya) wasn't a chocolate vs dog shit choice. It's still deeply fcuked up and almost a million ppl were displaced and some 11K killed but doing nothing wouldn't have been a better option and Milosevic can emerge any time he likes from his grave and kiss my ass.

I may seriously question the committment of France, the UK and the US in Libya but sitting back and watching Qaddafi massacre the insurgents from the air like Saddam did to the Shia and Kurds in '91 did not sit well with me at all and it would have tarnished the Arab Spring to a very great extent.

watching Qaddafi massacre the insurgents from the air

...

Q: Do you see any evidence that he actually has fired on his own people from the air? There were reports of it, but do you have independent confirmation? If so, to what extent?

SEC. GATES: We’ve seen the press reports, but we have no confirmation of that.

ADM. MULLEN: That’s correct. We’ve seen no confirmation whatsoever.

March 1 2011
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4777

...

A top Vatican official citing reliable sources in close contact with residents told Reuters at least 40 civilians have been killed in air strikes over Tripoli.

March 31 2011
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/2011331142051984358.html

...

it's not like i'm usually all about the US SecDef and the, uh, Vatican as reliable, truthful sources about military operations but.. it seems kind of germane to the conversation we're having

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/03/2011331142051984358.html

sorry, didn't mean to post that al-j article twice

here's another one:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/2011/03/2011328194855872276.html

this guy says the transitional council is NOT buddies with the west (though he provides scant evidence for this). i really would like to know more about these dudes.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/03/answer-to-glenn-greenwald.html

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/03/30/libya/index.html

I don't see the problem with Cole's response TBH.

OK he updated it; yesterday he posted a three-sentence answer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mustafa_Abdul_Jalil - Head of the National Transitional Council

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Jibril - PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_El-Hariri - Minister of Military Affairs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_al-Essawi - Foregin Affairs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Tarhouni - Finance

btw, my trivia team would've won last Sunday night if any of us had remembered "Odyssey Dawn."

(That's OK -- NONE of the teams correctly identified the host of ABC's This Week either. Truly trivial information.)

xpost Ah, of course, that figures.

Johan Galtung: 20 Years of War in Libya

The opposition in Libya, according to Galtung, stands for the West. France, Italy, the UK, and the US are likely to invest huge sums in that opposition. On Monday Obama promised to transfer $33 billion in seized Libyan assets to "the people" of Libya; that means the opposition. What's underway, Galtung says, is a civil war, not a no-fly zone protecting civilians. And killing Gadaffi would make him a martyr.

Gadaffi's military is not primarily foreign mercenaries. Prior to U.S. involvement, military forces were defecting to the rebel side; now one doesn't hear of that happening. The leader of the rebels is a CIA creation. Going back to the U.S. liberation of Cuba and the Philippines, the U.S. military has stepped in to "help" dozens of countries and overstayed its welcome every single time without exception.

Galtung doesn't predict that the United States will be at war in Libya for 20 years. He expects Western Europe to take over the poisonous role of empire from the current global power. China, he believes, even if it were powerful enough to step into that role, is not stupid enough to do so.

The paramount Greenwald question: "How many times do we have to arm one side of a civil war -- only for that side to then become our Enemy five or ten or fifteen years later -- before we learn not to do that any more?"

I'm fully willing to admit that I supported Iraq II, at least initially, on entirely humanitarian grounds. How would I feel if I were a Kurd? I thought. How would I feel if I were under the rule of a brutal dictator? I would want to be free, I thought. To be freed. My anti-war friends thought I was nuts, and there was much yelling. But soon enough I saw what a fuck-up the whole thing became and it really changed my mind on these things. Per what I said above, if you really want to help as many people as possible, provide food, water, shelter, education. But I increasingly believe there's little hope in helping a fully dysfunctional state (a repressive dictatorship that kills its own people being the most dysfunctional of all). I wish there was, but at best massacres can be delayed or forestalled, often at great cost, but as long as the dictator doing the killing is still in charge it's a bit pointless. But I'm also pretty firmly head of state anti-assassination, and to pussyfoot around that whole ethical quagmire reveals a lack of commitment on the part of those who say the ouster of said dictator would be a good thing.

Has there even been a call for the arrest of Qaddafi? Or just a "demand" that he step down?

xpost Yeah, yesterday China said to Sarkozy:

The aim of the UN's resolution is to stop violence and protect civilians.

If the military action brings disaster to innocent civilians and creates a bigger humanitarian crisis, that would violate the original intention of the Security Council resolution.

China disapproves of using military force in international affairs.

You have to admire the precision of adding "in international affairs" there on the end.

Josh I believe Obama has said Gaddafi "must go" as have countless Libyan opposition figures.

What does "must go" even mean? Must go or what?

Intervention is really a moral/ethical quagmire. Say we could turn back time and stop the massacre in Rwanda? Could we have done it? At what cost? What cost would we have been willing to pay, in money, in lives, to save the lives of hundreds of thousands?

Somalia being one example of the limitations of humanitarian intervention, practical or otherwise.

provide food, water, shelter, education

You can say a LOT of nasty things about Qaddafi but Libya has the highest HDI in Africa, the fourth highest GDP, has the highest literacy rate in North Africa and was spending almost 40% of its budget on education.

of course im aware libya post-uprising could likely be worse in the short term, or hell, even long-term, than libya under gadaffi.

I must say it is difficult to reconcile this statement with your earlier statement: "but really, 'ruin' libya, will this? fuuuuuck, how could they?"

And while people are notorious for being able to hold two irreconcilable opinions at the same time, you will pardon me if I point this out. I was, of course, only reponding to the first one, as I was not yet aware of the second.

i take it that in your view they should not have protested, because a violent response was inevitable? would be really interested to know what, from your vantage point in the post-revolutionary west, the libyans who rose up should have done instead.

I have no firm opinions on whether or not the protestors in Libya should have protested. I was speaking of whether or not the USA and western powers had any reason for the direct application of the tools of war on their behalf.

You seem to think that the Libyans who oppose Qadaffi have an absolute moral claim to the use of our aircraft, bombs and cruise missiles to assist their cause, once they took to the streets and were shot at. This would be true if deposing Qadaffi were an absolute moral imperative in and of itself, so that all humankind would share this presumed obligation to come to Libya and kill anyone who stands with Qadaffi. I don't see it.

However, you seem perfectly aware that war is not moral, but chaotic, and no such absolute moral imperative for ware exists, while you simultaneously argue that there are no moral alternatives for the rest of the world but to enter this war. I understand your desire to seek a just and moral outcome, but you have to recognize that we have no tools to ensure this, only explosives - and they won't do the job.

NATO warns rebels that if they start attacking civilians, they'll get hit with aerial attacks too

interesting development, I must say.

Meanwhile, fresh intelligence this week showed that Libyan government forces were supplying assault rifles to civilians in the town of Surt, which is populated largely by Qaddafi loyalists. These civilian Qaddafi sympathizers were seenchasing rebel forces in nonmilitary vehicles like sedans and trucks, accompanied by Libyan troops, according to American military officers.

man this is gonna be ugly

uglIER anyway

I have no firm opinions on whether or not the protestors in Libya should have protested. I was speaking of whether or not the USA and western powers had any reason for the direct application of the tools of war on their behalf.

erm, no, you were not. what you said was:

It is stupidly easy to take the moral position that oppressed people ought to sacrifice not only their own lives, but those of their families and neighbors, in the sacred pursuit of political freedom, if only because the person taking that position doesn't envision making any such sacrifice themselves. Tracer was just noticing the salient fact that civil wars are bloody messes that can ruin countries for a couple of generations, with no guarantee that the outcome will be anything remotely like what the combatants sought as their original goal.

that's strictly about the protesters.

re. 'ruining' libya: i was being sarcastic, dummy.

You seem to think that the Libyans who oppose Qadaffi have an absolute moral claim to the use of our aircraft, bombs and cruise missiles to assist their cause, once they took to the streets and were shot at.

i don't really trade in absolute moral claims tbh. i don't 'like' this war, but i think we have, or should have, other tools than explosives to bring about... some improvement. a just and moral outcome, maybe not, we don't live in a very just world ourselves.

in nonmilitary vehicles like sedans and trucks

Tactical adaptation to comouflage them from aircraft.

The new Nato head of operations there just said he is opposed to arming the rebels.

We could just have a long stalemate.

And now it's our long stalemate, because it's only a stalemate as long as we're hovering nearby with our fingers on the trigger. And the second the international presence leaves ...

(shrugs) I can't see anything in that second quote that contradicts anything I said in the first one. The second quote, afaics, was about non-Libyans who form opinions on what the protestors should have done. The first quote declined to form such an opinion.

But we live two different worlds, you and I, and it is clear we shall never marry.

dont know why so many of you have opinions about this, seems a lot easier to sit back and form an opinion later after its clear whos right

― max, Monday, March 21, 2011 3:07 AM (1 week ago) Bookmark

overlooked truth bomb

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/26/111109/new-rebel-leader-spent-much-of.html

"Libyan rebel leader spent much of past 20 years in suburban Virginia"

Since coming to the United States in the early 1990s, Hifter lived in suburban Virginia outside Washington, D.C. Badr said he was unsure exactly what Hifter did to support himself, and that Hifter primarily focused on helping his large family.

keep thinking "you know who else lived in northern VA? HIFTER!"

overlooked truth bomb

― patrice wil$on is my favorite rapper (history mayne), Thursday, March 31, 2011 2:35 PM (39 minutes ago)

i think like 3 people itt have expressed opinions tbf

huh i wonder was mr hifter was doing in suburban virginia? cant really think of any major institutions or complexes located there

i know it's funny and everything but let's not get crazy with this CIA stuff just because an asylee lives in northern virginia

just a bit of spycraft, lets be cool

i mean, i wouldn't be surprised, but come on

In 1975, during the Fall of Saigon, Nguyễn fled South Vietnam. He moved to the United States, and opened a pizza restaurant at Rolling Valley Mall, in the Washington, D.C. suburb of Burke, Virginia. In 1991, Nguyễn was forced into retirement when his identity was publicly disclosed. Photographer Eddie Adams recalled that on his last visit to the pizza shop, he had seen written on a toilet wall, "We know who you are, fucker".[5]