a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

apparently shit is popping off in yemen now too

good post about elbaradei:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/nuke-watchdog-wants-to-lead-egypt-revolt-no-really/

Times implies that the addition of the Muslim Brotherhood in the mix may change the dynamic. If I were [insert despot here], I would love for the extremists to get into the mix.

I still want to know what they'd want from a potential democratically elected government. Better ties with the US? Fewer ties to the US? In the case of Egypt, worse ties with Israel? A desire for expanded personal freedoms, or just the freedom to choose their oppressor?

The times lead does begin "Demonstrators in Egypt have protested against rising prices and stagnant incomes, for greater freedom and against police brutality," so maybe it is just a general sense of powerlessness. But the solution to those particular problems seems to be a more liberal democracy, which I can't see happening without clashing with the hardliners.

The tinderbox seems to be Jobs and prices Tunisia and Egypt both have youth unemployment in the 30-40% range. That's just the spark, though, the fuel is many things and seems to be different things for different people; (suppression of religion, free speech, petty bureaucratic oppression, the price of bread etc. etc.)

They've shut off the internet throughout the whole of Egypt, with the exception of the one the Egyptian Stock Exchange is on.

I read the other day someone quite vehement that the Muslim Brotherhood aren't extremists. Wiki says the organization is committed to non-violent reform but their goals are absolute Islamist life and law. What are the odds on what they'll do if/when they get a say in what happens next?

The impression I get from my half egyptian colleague is the the MB are a pretty broad based organisation from hardline to very moderate. There strength to date has been drawn from the fact that they are the only focal point for opposition to the government. That said the secular opposition is starting from scratch and the MB have the organisation and structure to fill any power vacuum that emerges (unlike Tunisia where the Islamic opposition is much weaker).

And if this is an extension of anti-American sentiment, does that mean these protestors want governments that are even more anti-American (and anti-Israel)?

Mubarak is not anti-American. Neither was Ben-Ali in Tunisia. And whatever yap Mubarak might come out with in public, his government colluded with Israel in such things as maintaining the siege of Gaza.

But I think you are right, there is more to this than just anti-Americanism, and the Iranian protests are probably a bit of a catalyst. Back then there was talk about how quiescent Arabs were towards their own thuggish dictators, but now belatedly they are springing into action.

My sense at this stage is that the Arab world is enjoying a 1989 moment. It will be interesting to see whether this spreads to the monarchies, and indeed to Syria, the one definitively not pro-Western Arab state.

Naipaul's travelogue in the immediate aftermath of the Iranian revolution is fascinating - at that stage it wasn't clear what sort it was - socialist or Islamic, and what kind of islamists they were. That's why I'm very worried to see the mb turning up.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/1/28/1296219004898/Locals-pray-in-the-street-009.jpg

I still want to know what they'd want from a potential democratically elected government. Better ties with the US? Fewer ties to the US? In the case of Egypt, worse ties with Israel? A desire for expanded personal freedoms, or just the freedom to choose their oppressor?

The times lead does begin "Demonstrators in Egypt have protested against rising prices and stagnant incomes, for greater freedom and against police brutality," so maybe it is just a general sense of powerlessness. But the solution to those particular problems seems to be a more liberal democracy, which I can't see happening without clashing with the hardliners.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, January 28, 2011 7:45 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

my guess is that the protestors are coming from a wide enough swath of society that youd get "yes" answers to all of those things! its not exactly a politically organized uprising (at this point)

i mean this is what that protest pamphlet that the atlantic translated has, not that its necessarily more representative of the protestors than anyhting else:

http://assets.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/Page%202_rev.jpg

and my understanding of the muslim brotherhood is similar to what ed is saying. i think itd be possible (though i have no idea how likely) for a muslim brotherhood-majority gov't to be more democratic and free than a mubarak military state.

ive also read that the brotherhood wouldnt draw a wide-enough base of support from the population to BE the majority, and a kind of coalition with a secular organization is more likely to be regarded as a genuine alternative to mubarak in a practical sense.

but! ismael (and i guess naipaul) is right. iran could have gone in a lot of different directions--and it had a large cosmopolitan/secular population, not to mention a large and i believe fairly well-organized (?) communist party. (plus figures like ali shariati who threaded a needle somewhere between secular and hard-line)

re: Naipaul. Are you talking about 'Among the believers'?

Khomeini played the Communists very well but Iran could easily have gone a different direction.

i asume thats what ismael meant? i dont know i really dislike naipaul so

I still want to know what they'd want from a potential democratically elected government.

jobs

or what ed said

max where is your first image from? any info?

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/f9a2m/a_picture_i_took_yesterday_in_tahrir_square_cairo/

The problem with all entrenched regimes is that they become not only corrupt but very visibly so, hence the revolt against Ben Ali and clan in Tunisia. Today would have been Khaled Said's 29th birthday. He was beaten to death last summer for distributing video of police officers splitting up drugs amongst themselves that they had just confiscated. A photo of his smashed head in the morgue then quickly made the rounds. Egyptians are mindful that anti-Muslim Brotherhood, anti-islamist efforts by the regime have ended up leaving us with people like al-Zawahiri.

I have no idea about their sincerity but the Muslim Brotherhood has officially eschewed violence with few exceptions and apart from not being the regime, they also have a certain status in Egypt from their benevolent works, notably after the 1992 Cairo earthquake.

It seems to be that lots of these Islamic groups eschew violence officially, but have no problem with it as a means to an end. It's hard to imagine a peaceful strict, hardline Muslim government, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Another question: how are these despots different than those de facto despots in Russia? The complaints these protestors have don't seem that different from what I imagine the average Russian would say, were they allowed to openly say it. And god knows, the Russian government is every bit as brazen as these middle eastern governments.

But more popular amongst Russians me thinks, at least for the moment.

Just on the Muslim Brothers and elections and so on - the feeling in the academic literature is that Arab world Islamists win pluralities but not majorities in elections. So if post-transition elections in Egypt are run by proportional representation then we are not going to be looking at their having total power.

gunfire & explosions on the al jazeera live feed - http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

whats happening are the mummies attacking

But what's setting this off?

I heard the desire for a minimum wage is a big desire. Also 30 years under the same President is hardly a democratic regime, regardless of how much US officials kiss his ass.

these pictures are incredible - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-cairo

this is an interesting piece about how tunisia, egypt and yemen are not the same - http://www.chapatimystery.com/archives/homistan/days_of_anger.html - i'm not sure if i buy the denial of any link between them, but then i'm not the expert here...

When do the neocons swoop in and start taking credit for all this

Isn't there a strain of thinking that in these relatively diverse, relatively moderate countries, a Islamist government would spark a popular backlash when forced to actually govern? Turkey has managed a democratic coalition of hardliners and moderates, hasn't it?

Slightly tangential but moving:

http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/parting-glance-lucas-mebrouk-dolega-32/

http://renesys.com/blog/

This whole thing has had me thinking about Algeria in 1991. I do hope it all ends better.

The complaints these protestors have don't seem that different from what I imagine the average Russian would say, were they allowed to openly say it.

the average russian thinks putin's awesome

think we're getting WAY ahead of ourselves with the speculation about what various post-despot govt's would look like in the Arab world

each of these states currently in flux (Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt) are ultimately at the mercy of their respective militaries and which way they swing (Yemen's trickier because the populace is so well armed, a civil war is more likely. But in Egypt it's gonna come down to whether or not the army + police are willing to engage in mass slaughter/repression)

Yes, Among The Believers. Should've clarified that I was talking about 79 not 09.

Also, there will be a struggle within the mb as to the direction it will take - being an organisation defined by its islamism, I would expect the more extreme elements to prevail, simply because if they do manage to co-opt mass support that's not going to be support for liberal democracy. Why would it be? People with that as a priority will be looking elsewhere.

x-post Really? I bet they can muster a percentage of malcontents equal to that of Egypt. But then, Russia seems to be going through a transitional phase.

The question, then, is whether Egypt et al. are willing to go the full crackdown, and then if they do, whether they can survive the reaction. Unlike the relatively isolated and very hardline Iran, Egypt doesn't appear to have to same degree of control over, say, outside influences, let alone its own people.

I would be extremely skeptical of any US news source portraying these protesters as anti-American and/or Muslim extremists. Clearly the demands are all pretty in line with democratic ideals and the kind of shit the US should be publicly rooting for.

I was in Egypt in 2006 or so on a school trip and had plenty of first-hand experience with the people, tho yeah as an American tourist in the more populated areas. Egypt is overwhelmingly Muslim, and this was smack in the middle of the Iraq War and Bush's 2nd term, and everyone I talked to had nothing but good things to say about America and Americans, even in the midst of all that. The most extreme they got was saying "We love America, we love Americans, we just don't like Bush". Now this probably has a lot to do with the fact that tourism is THE business in Egypt, and why on Earth would you badmouth someone you were trying to sell trinkets to.

Nonetheless, yes there were extremists out in the desert and stories of anti-American sentiments in the rural areas, but the vast, vast majority of people in Cairo and Luxor and Aswan were all very friendly and very nice.

No way is foreign policy a motivating factor here in the slightest. We are just bystanders here and should mostly bystand for fear of contaminating whatever good things might emerge.

They're not directly anti-American, but isn't one complaint that Mubarak is too pro American? And certainly too pro-Israel? (Which can be read as pro-American?)

x-post The vast majority of people everywhere are very friendly and nice.

Indeed, yes. Supporting the coup that blocked the elections there was one of the West's great mistakes.

JiC - I think, yes, that people do reckon that if the Islamists had to govern then people would become disenchanted with them. Or maybe they would be really good at governing and everyone would love them. Or whatever.

I think Ergodan is not governing as part of a coalition, but I am open to correction on this.

I don't really think that Egypt's position wrt the US is really an issue here compared to domestic corruption, poverty, massive inequality etc.

Al Jazeera live feed is amazing btw

my last post was an XPost to something.

x-post Really? I bet they can muster a percentage of malcontents equal to that of Egypt. But then, Russia seems to be going through a transitional phase.

putin's approval rating was higher than any leader on the planet. medvedev's is lower, but most russians know putin's in charge anyway.

obv there are plenty of malcontents in russia! but no the country as a whole really, really likes him. i kind of wrote about why here (putin doesn't actually get mentioned haha, but after crushing the oligarchs and all the tough talk to chechan/islamic terrorists, his status is a function of the same phenom.)

sorry total thread derail. i am actually ashamed of how little i know about the egypt/yemen/everywhereelse situation, even though i've been trying to follow it.

AKP/ergodan holds a majority in turkey, yes, but theyre hardly hardliners.

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

army opening fire

not good

oh shit

No way is foreign policy a motivating factor here in the slightest. We are just bystanders here and should mostly bystand for fear of contaminating whatever good things might emerge.

― Ismael Klata, Friday, January 28, 2011 6:52 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark

OTFM

CAIRO, June 19 (Reuters) - Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt for 30 years until overthrown by a revolution in the "Arab Spring" last year, was declared clinically dead by his doctors on Tuesday, the state news agency MENA said in a report confirmed by a hospital source.

the body is dead but the legend lives on

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/13/lamborghini_morsi

After long weeks of political gridlock and stagnation, Egypt's elected President Mohammed el-Morsi suddenly hit the gas over the weekend. Over the span of a few days, Morsi removed the head of General Intelligence, the head of the Military Police, the top two senior leaders of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and the heads of all the military services. In addition to this SCAF-Quake, Morsi also canceled the controversial Constitutional amendments promulgated by the SCAF just before he took office and issued a new, equally controversial amendment and roadmap of his own. What's more, this all came after he replaced the editors of major state-owned newspapers with people viewed as sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood and cracked down on several other critical papers. Zero to 180 in three days -- even Usain Bolt would be impressed by that acceleration. Swirv.

not really sure what 'swirv' means in that context tbh

oh ha i just figure it out. carry on...

The fundamental problem remains one of trust and the absence of legitimate institutions. The political polarization of the last year and a half, fueled by all too many political and rhetorical mistakes on all sides, has left profound scars. The Shafiq voters in the Presidential election have hardly reconciled themselves to Morsi, and most activists and revolutionaries remain as alienated as ever from a political struggle dominated by the military and the Brotherhood. On top of the polarization comes the legal Calvinball, where rules and legal institutions are fundamentally contested and no arbiter has uncontested judicial authority. And then there's the regrettable absence of a Parliament, another casualty of the pre-election institutional warfare. With so much in flux and so much distrust, every move, no matter how minor, becomes deeply laden with potential treachery and disaster. And this was no minor move.

In most cases, I would think that the removal of the SCAF's senior leadership and the assertion of civilian control by an elected government would be celebrated as a major triumph in the push for a transition to a civil, democratic state. But the deeply rooted fears of the Muslim Brotherhood, fueled by recognition of their popular strength and doubts about their democratic convictions, prevents any easy acceptance of that reading in many quarters. That's why the next few weeks will be crucial, as Morsi makes clear what kind of constitutional process he really intends and as the military and the anti-Islamist trends in Egyptian politics weigh their next moves.

go morsi!!!

sudan now?

http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/28/sudans_protests

i thought sudan barely has govt as it is??

omar bashir is still around, that's all i know tbh

exactly how eager for war w/Syria is Turkey...? this whole thing seems to be spiralling into worst-case-scenario territory

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578583932317286550.html wow at the WSJ :

"Egyptians would be lucky if their new ruling generals turn out to be in the mold of Chile's Augusto Pinochet, who took power amid chaos but hired free-market reformers and midwifed a transition to democracy."

rolling middle east 2013 thread

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/egypt-sentences-3-al-jazeera-reporters

US keeps giving Egypt military aid so that it can have an influence there, says the US gov. This latest "trial" again shows the lack of influence

Oops, already discussed over in this other thread:

Rolling MENA 2014

Why Obama and Clinton make no secrets of seeking out Kissinger for advice and photo ops. They're his children.

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/10/16/egypts-u-s-backed-military-regime-brutalizing-student-protestors/

I'm with you re this one.

we like giving lip service to democracy but what we really want more than anything else is stability and our economic interests secure. that trumps everything.

In the world of realpolitik those have always trumped everything. And an oligarchy is more likely to align with our interests than would a democracy atm, because current U.S. government functions as an oligarchy more than a democracy.

i think it's facile to say that an oligarchy will necessarily have the same or similar interests as another oligarchy. that would make geopolitics much simpler than it is.

also US foreign policy has never been subject to the sort of "democracy" that domestic politics have

but you'll get no argument from me re. our egypt policy being atrocious

Q: is "realpolitik" really just a 20th Century term for "the way empire has always functioned"?

we don't have an empire, i heard Bill Maher say so.

this is the thread where we self-congratulatorily affirm the fact of an american empire to one another

http://www.feelnumb.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/album-cover-rage-against-the-machine-evil-empire.jpg

woah lol huge soz

@sharifkouddous
State Dept official in 2010 email from Egypt to Hillary Clinton about Mubarak government: "They love you here"

https://twitter.com/sharifkouddous/status/711883543601942528

Ergodan below 50%

🔴#SONDAKİKA | Anadolu Ajansı'na göre Tayyip Erdoğan'ın oyu %50'nin altına düştü. (%49.99)

— ibrahim Haskoloğlu (@haskologlu) May 14, 2023

*Erdogan