2008 Primaries Thread

http://www.dccc.org/stakeholder/archives/body_snatchers.jpg

deej's defense of the united states' right to bomb whatever country it wants has been the most surprising thing about this thread so far. (i guess this means he's in favor of israel's helicopter strikes on hamas leaders too?)

daily howler --

A new opportunity: With the presumptive defeat of Candidate Clinton, a 16-year story will come to an end. This gives Democrats a new chance to take control of the narratives told about its leaders. By now, it’s abundantly clear that a Nominee Clinton would be subjected to endless nonsense throughout the campaign, as was the case with Candidate Gore all through 1999 and 2000. These attacks would be based on sixteen years of mainstream demonology -- and it’s clear that many Dems and libs believe many parts of these RNC tales. (Let’s not pretend that we don’t.) Obama’s nomination [would let] Dems start again. And, with new, more aggressive liberal institutions in place, it will be harder -- much, much harder -- to assemble the welter of Demon Tales that were used to trash the Clintons and Gore. The defeat of Clinton will let Democrats and liberals at long last start over again.

on c4 news yesterday even syd blumenthal seemed to have basically conceded.

I hate to trot this out because it's so obvious, but...
Did anyone else notice that the moment the networks started calling NH for Clinton, every other political writer started explaining why OF COURSE HILLARY WON, etc, etc, when only six hours earlier they had an entirely different narrative spin on the evening? (She won because she cried! She won because the women of NH came out for her! She won because Bill was tough on Obama!)
Maybe after a surprise like that the pundits should be like: oops? I guess we don't really know what is fueling the votes at the moment? Our bad?

Also, I've got a primary question for someone who is brighter than me:

Romney came in second place in Iowa and second place in NH.
McCain came in third place in Iowa and first place in NH.
Huckabee came in first place in Iowa and third place in NH.

Isn't the candidate who came in second both times the better (more consensus generating) choice than the one who came in 3rd in one and 1st in the other? Why are people calling Romney a double-loser instead of a compromise candidate?

regarding the MSM's misogyny towards The Inevitable, it should be mentioned that some of these pundits were just as gleeful tonight at her comeback. Tim Russert looked like someone was tickling his asshole. At the end of the day, a lot of em are just sports junkies. They want a great game. They want the momentum swinging like a pendulum and they want the underdog to smash the juggernaut. Dems are coming through.

http://thepage.time.com/theories-to-explain-clintons-nh-polling-behind-obama/

Mordechai at this point the votes are more reflective of how much money and time people spent in those places. For instance, McCain didn't spend anything on Iowa -- he conceded it from the get-go. On the other hand, Romney outspent everyone in both Iowa and NH and came in second. There are a lot of ways to interpret it.

I listen to BBC's "Newspod", a 30-minute roundup of the day's radio news, and it's always a day late by the time I listen to it. It's not that surprising that so many people were wrong about the Democratic results in NH, but it's fascinating listening to the explanations people were already spinning about WHY Obama was going to win -- they were already writing the first draft of history before anything had even happened yet.

The dynamics of Hillary vs McCain scare the shit out of me for two reasons.

1) The press has been in love with McCain for years, and has hated Hillary even longer.

2) Despite being Bush's butt-boy for years and basically running on the SAME POLICIES as Bush, McCain stands a very good chance of painting himself as the agent of change and Hillary as the candidate of the past.

I wish we could vote for candidates in the primaries without worrying about their electability. There's no reason, outside of MSM narratives and whatever, that Hillary couldn't beat McCain. She wins of policy, and hell, she wins on personality too. I'd much rather watch her speak than McCain (who bores me).

Actually, on that note: I've watched so many speeches these last two weeks (mostly on CSPAN) that I'm ready to rank speakers from my favorite to least favorite:
Obama > Romney > Clinton > Richardson > Paul > Guiliani > Huckabee > Edwards > McCain

I LOVE listening to Romney speak. Even though I disagree with every blessed word that leaves his lips.

She wins on* policy

I'm ready to rank speakers

Didn't I read that Obama's speech writer is this 24 (26?) year old dude who worked for the Kerry campaign in 2004, when he was 20 (22?) ?

I read that Obama wrote his own speeches?

Obama wrote his keynote speech at the 2004 DNC. this guy is writing for him now.

lol at George Stephanopolous analyzing the "semiotics" of HRC's onstage antics last night.

Link?

I’m seriously hung. I worked nearly 11 hours on the phone yesterday. I could only estimate how many people I called. My prize? Cheering for the winner in Manchester (and apparently being on television)!

I am a bit bummed I didn’t get waste time here. Maybe I’ll slog through the thread this afternoon.

Daria's right about that ''You're likable ENOUGH'' line by Obama. I think it hurt him. It made him look petty and frat boy-ish, not high-minded and transformative.

To me the line and delivery were anything but frat boy-ish; he sounded cool and distanced, much better than McCain's pandering "candidate of change" one-liner.

Anyway, this is minutiae.

I’m seriously hung.

take it to the crush thread.

To me the line and delivery were anything but frat boy-ish; he sounded cool and distanced, much better than McCain's pandering "candidate of change" one-liner.

I agree. I think that moment was well played by both candidates.

To me the line and delivery were anything but frat boy-ish; he sounded cool and distanced, much better than McCain's pandering "candidate of change" one-liner.

I hear that view. Clearly, Obama was trying to sound cool and distanced: Like the frontrunner. We just heard it differently.

FWIW, I think Obama and Edwards came off like frat-boys too often during that debate (e.g., Obama's "Oh, I was watching the playoff game backstage" line). I don't think that lines like that are are good for Obama (who woos voters with his powerful, graceful, elegant and hyper-serious rhetorical style), at least not in the primary.

stop attacking their gender, Dan

i see what you did there

ugh

do you think the substance of George's tv semiotics were lol-worthy, Alfred, or his exercise of them/use of the word? dude was a Rhodes Scholar, y'know (and summa at Columbia the year before Barack, tho the latter's biography suggests there's no reason they would know each other).

the columbia semiotics program at columbia sucked in the late 80s

at least, at columbia it did

hi-fives, gershy, but i'm actually physically able to stick out my lower lip

lol daria poking her head in after the big win to accuse ilx and everyone else of sexism.

do you think the substance of George's tv semiotics were lol-worthy, Alfred, or his exercise of them/use of the word? d

The substance, gabbs, such as it was. I don't much care – neither do most voters – about where and why Madeleine Albright and Wes Clarke were "positioned" last Thursday, but Michael Deaver would be proud.

i mean theres like nothing hillary couldve ever done to piss people off - like repeatedly rolling over for the worst administration of my lifetime on the most important issues of the day.

but anyway i had anxiety dreams abt the election last night which then seamlessly morphed into dreams abt selling records on ebay where i was going to be out of town when the auctions ended and unable to ship them out - i kept canceling the auctions but then when id look at my selling page there were more there.

Stephen Colbert's best line on his opening night was "Someone was up there wearing a Madeleine Albright mask."

I wish we could vote for candidates in the primaries without worrying about their electability.

I do it; not that hard.

Oh, Alfred's gonna love Mo Dowd quoting Ruth Gordon & Garson Kanin re Rodham's boohooing. Her best stuff:

There was a poignancy about the moment, seeing Hillary crack with exhaustion from decades of yearning to be the principal rather than the plus-one. But there was a whiff of Nixonian self-pity about her choking up. What was moving her so deeply was her recognition that the country was failing to grasp how much it needs her. In a weirdly narcissistic way, she was crying for us. But it was grimly typical of her that what finally made her break down was the prospect of losing.

As Spencer Tracy said to Katharine Hepburn in “Adam’s Rib,” “Here we go again, the old juice. Guaranteed heart melter. A few female tears, stronger than any acid.”

The Clintons once more wriggled out of a tight spot at the last minute. Bill churlishly dismissed the Obama phenom as “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen,” but for the last few days, it was Hillary who seemed in danger of being Cinderella. She became emotional because she feared that she had reached her political midnight, when she would suddenly revert to the school girl with geeky glasses and frizzy hair, smart but not the favorite. All those years in the shadow of one Natural, only to face the prospect of being eclipsed by another Natural?

...Her argument against Obama now boils down to an argument against idealism, which is probably the lowest and most unlikely point to which any Clinton could sink. The people from Hope are arguing against hope.

Wow, I totally missed Billy Blythe's "big Obama fairytale" line. As big as how liberally you were gonna govern in your second term, you fat criminal fuck?

Also loved Dowd's description of her walking into the "office" to catch her fellow fools obsessing over HRC'S Muskie moment.

What was moving her so deeply was her recognition that the country was failing to grasp how much it needs her. In a weirdly narcissistic way, she was crying for us. But it was grimly typical of her that what finally made her break down was the prospect of losing.

surprisingly otm

Clinton/Obama starting to sound pretty good to me at this point. Not that I think Obama should concede, or that he doesn't have a (slim) chance to win the nomination, but I hope the two sides can make peace because that ticket would likely be unbeatable... unless Huckabee can get Jesus to be his running mate.

Yeah, I agree, but Dowd attacking the Clintons for their lack of idealism is a bit rich coming from the columnist most responsible for purely superficial gibes at pols.

(xpost)

i will say that clinton is otm when she said she found her voice. not just the crying - although i did say upthread that that human hillary was immensely more appealing than her usual schtick - but her speaking and behaving in a more intimate manner altogether - that was surely the cause of her comeback.

there was a headline on huffpost a couple days ago that said something abt hillary wrestling control of her campaign from the advisers. if so well done.

but still i dont trust her. is having her back completely against the wall what it takes for her to be at all genuine. surely if she wins she'll go back to being completely calculating.

but of course it not just the endless scheming. i mean thats endemic in politics. its the scheming + consistent wrongness.

so while i do admire what shes done in the last few days. the fact that she was even in that situation to begin with just points back to her flaws.

Clinton-Obama ticket would likely be beatable. By John McCain, [secretly hypocritical] torture-saint "maverick."

"purely superficial gibes" are suited to purely superficial pols.

Dowd's finish, for jhoshea:

At her victory party, Hillary was like the heroine of a Lifetime movie, a woman in peril who manages to triumph. Saying that her heart was full, she sounded the feminist anthem: “I found my own voice.”

Dowd attacking the Clintons for their lack of idealism is a bit rich

maybe but it's accurate ... given the last few days of the "false hopes / it's a fairy tale / you're no MLK" message ...

another great thing abt hillary/obama would be that itd give us by far the best shot at: 16 years, no republican presidents.

not that i think obama is cooked. its a coin flip now. w/obama maybe still having somewhat of an edge. nh over the years has had a soft spot for the uncharismatic candidates that the rest of the country has no time for. mccain and tsongas come to mind. obv hillary is much stronger than either of those dudes. but still nh is more forgiving of her sort of foibles.

I think you overestimate the popularity of McCain amongst the Christianist Right, and underestimate the effect of turning out a broad coalition of new female, minority, and youth voters.

as much as I think being Caucasian male is an impregnable (ha ha) condition until history is made, I like Obama's chances against McCain slightly more than Clinton's.

So Romney, Edwards both cooked?

I wouldn't give Obama an edge. With a national primary on the 5th, most superdelegates already going for Clinton, and no fundraising advantage for either candidate, Hillary has at least a moderate advantage on name recognition alone. Even if she loses SC and NV.

i really dont get the mccain fear - hes on the mostest wrong side of the most important issue of the election, hes old dead-looking and weird, and the republican party is at a 30 year nadir.

And believe me, I have some idea of the Obama campaign's strategy. I have put in time at the NY office and attended their leadership training program. The idea was IA + NH = narrow win over Clinton on February 5th. Even with IA and NH they knew the national primary would be really rough.

no if she looses sc and nv obama is pretty clearly in the drivers seat.

That's what they'll so, but I don't think they'll believe it. They're tearing out their hair this morning trying to figure out what to do, I guarantee it.

yah sure but theyre a campaign - thats their job. obv they have to be completely on top of their game to make this work.