2008 Primaries Thread

NH awards delegates proportionally, so if the math is straightforward, that means Clinton gets about 12 delegates and Obama gets around 11. So in terms of electoral math, the placement of 1st and 2nd matters little - except in terms of psychology, of course.

All this means is that this is still up in the air, amirite? It's not a lock for anybody yet.

yes HOOS

Well, if I understand correctly, Clinton and Obama are now tied in number of delegates, since Obama won 16 in Iowa to Clinton's 15.

obama looking like hes spoilin for a fight

Rt, Hoos. But if Edwards gets out after this, it's a big plus for HRC.

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/7401/thumbs/r-MCCAIN-AND-CLINTON-huge.jpg

delegate numbers mean absolutely nothing at this stage

ew mcteeth

But if Edwards gets out after this, it's a big plus for HRC.

uh, no

http://images.politico.com/global/080108_clinton_mccain_smiley_v3.jpg

Yes. (a) it stops Edwards doing Obama's dirty work by attacking HRC and (b) Edwards is cutting into HRC's ''beer track'' vote.

No, it's not up in the air. Well, it is, but the momentum is Hillary's now, and somehow I suspect she'll uphold it more forcefully than Obama did his.

But if Edwards gets out after this, it's a big plus for HRC.

uh, no

True.

at this point i'm kind of hoping for a hillary win in n.h. just to hear the grinding gears of the conventional wisdom realigning again.

i got my wish! listen at them gears. nobody can figure out what the storyline is now.

delegate numbers mean absolutely nothing at this stage

Isn't that a bit like saying that the score in a baseball game means nothing after the first inning?

conventional wisdom has it that edwards/obama are splitting the anyone but hillary vote

http://www.whitekit.com/images/crest_white_strips.jpg

CW is wrong on this point.

Actually I think the best thing for Hillary at this point would be for Edward to stay in the race and keep making nasty cracks at her.

Well, that may be true, but I think Edwards won't make that mistake again (to the same degree, at least).

Sully speculates that, apart from NH's non-conformist tendencies, more voters thought HRC did really well in Saturday's debate.

Ugh:

Look, Barack Obama’s an impressive guy; I don’t know anybody who dislikes him. But I think we should be encouraged that voters can stand up against an emotional 24/7 media Valentine for one candidate, and vote instead for a person they think will be a steadier and more reliable Commander-in-Chief (especially important in time of war). Hillary as insurgent against the liberal MSM—you go, girl!

Yes (re: debate, Alfred).

I still think her allegedly "shrill" response to the change theme was actually quite good.

We all did!

ILX Wisdom trumps Conventional Wisdom. Again!

Looking swell!

HRC can make the MSM's apparent dislike for her work to her advantage.

That ''I found my own voice'' line was a brilliant phrase.

http://gothamist.com/attachments/jen/2008_01_clinton.jpg

nate - the candidates have less than 25 delegates so far. on super tuesday, more than 1500 delegates are awarded. so the answer to your question is no.

Well, you never know - it could come down to those last 25 delegates, couldn't it?

no, it won't

clinton and obama are tied in delegate count now, i believe

I still think her allegedly "shrill" response to the change theme was actually quite good.

i thought it sucked, actually

delegate numbers mean absolutely nothing at this stage

Isn't that a bit like saying that the score in a baseball game means nothing after the first inning?

-- o. nate, Tuesday, January 8, 2008 10:56 PM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

A 1-1 score after the first inning means absolutely nothing.

what won for her was sympathy and generations - more old people voted, fewer young ones did

Come on people! Media narrative means everything = big Hillary win.

but it isn't a 1-1 score. in baseball terms, it's still 0-0.

Media narrative means everything

right, and delegate count means nothing

obama's still winning the less-democratic groups, ergo obama is more electable afaic

A 1-1 score after the first inning means absolutely nothing.

By calling it a 1-1 score you're implicitly granting my point.

Will news people learn not to go all batshit from this? Likely not.

lol @ media

still, fuck hillary

It sounds like Obama and Hillary are both going after the Edwards supporters who might be getting ready to bolt after his lackluster showing in NH: they both made a bigger point of taking an anti-corporate stance than either did in their post-Iowa speeches.

PLZ STOP WITH BASEBALL ANALOGY

Obama's still going after the same independents he's always gone after

Hillary looks like 'this shit is tiresome - can you give me the keys already?'

Gabbneb OTM about what won N.H. for HRC. In 2004, when the youth anti-war vote was supposed to help Kerry win, Joe Scarborough -- watching people waiting to vote in line -- said, ''I dunno; looks like the same old voters to me.'' Not saying this will hold true in 2008, but don't count out the old, Baby Boomers vote yet.

hillary insults my intelligence. fuck you, hillary!