jesus christ can you imagine if they start getting cute about the coalition now.
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 February 2010 17:06 (3 years ago) Permalink
Did they? I thought the number of TDs they managed to return diminished with each election. I can't remember though, and that might just have been a function of them being essentially crap and unsustainable as a party anyway.
FF are pissing on their chips in the long run, as they are making it very clear that anyone who goes into government with them will just be fucked over.
Clear to who (whom?) though? If anyone in Labour is honestly thinking about going into coalition with FF, then the lesson is clearly still far from being learned.
― trishyb, Wednesday, 24 February 2010 17:06 (3 years ago) Permalink
Oh sorry, the "did they?" refers to the PDs doing well in elections while they were FF partners.
― trishyb, Wednesday, 24 February 2010 17:07 (3 years ago) Permalink
Labour can't go with FF, now that I've taken a few deep breaths. Not only on the historical evidence of the long-term damage it does to smaller parties, but also because there's a genuine groundswell of support for Labour's politics and policies (well, as I assume those to be anyway) that will not come around again in a generation, and they would kick that into touch in an instant were they even to be suspected of considering an FF coalition.
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 February 2010 17:09 (3 years ago) Permalink
RIP BIG MAN
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 March 2010 11:03 (3 years ago) Permalink
for a while, the PDs did better in elections when they were in government (with FF) than when they were in opposition. Maybe they had more to show for their supporters. Or something.
However, the PDs also had a tendency to do very badly in elections every so often, so it maybe was only a matter of time before they did so badly they got wiped out. It might be reading too much into it to say they were wiped out because they were in coalition with FF - they were just bound to get a very bad result sooner or later.
― The New Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 2 March 2010 11:25 (3 years ago) Permalink
PD's political ideology is always going to be cyclically popular or otherwise to a much larger extent than FF, FG. Same with Lab, to be fair, but probably not to the saem extent.
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 March 2010 11:28 (3 years ago) Permalink
Govt with FF (particularly Justice/Health ministerial posts, how can you win votes on those issues?) was just the killer blow, maybe.
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 March 2010 11:30 (3 years ago) Permalink
NAMA seems to have been completely ignored on this thread. anybody else think its a terrible idea? there are plenty of alternatives to this crap shoot.
― Michael B, Tuesday, 2 March 2010 12:00 (3 years ago) Permalink
I'm not normally (hell maybe I am) one to just go along with barroom solicitors' opinion, but NAMA really is just a bailout for developers and banks, to the detriment of everybody else. I've not seen the proposals for dealing with the empty properties across the country, but if the social housing lists aren't decimated then NAMA will have been a complete whitewash.
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 March 2010 12:18 (3 years ago) Permalink
cullen admitted to hospital now. jeez i'd say minister's health/life/income protection insurance is going through the roof.
― quiz show flat-track bully (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 March 2010 15:02 (3 years ago) Permalink
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hFNcC7dde6DREm6fdWhjfr3cqCDwD9EGNS980
― max, Thursday, 18 March 2010 14:22 (3 years ago) Permalink
Now there's a surprise, whodathoughit?
― The Oort Locker (Tom D.), Thursday, 18 March 2010 14:24 (3 years ago) Permalink
Never mind that
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Thursday, 18 March 2010 14:29 (3 years ago) Permalink
so, have i got this right-
monday morning- director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned
tuesday- anglo irish admit that pay rises are going ahead in a bank that's effectively in receivership to the government
wednesday- another director of anglo irish bank arrested, questioned
i mean.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:50 (3 years ago) Permalink
tbh i only think this is all funny now
― plax (ico), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:54 (3 years ago) Permalink
tbh it's funny now.
tbh it's not going to be when the crash comes, and we get to look back on this last decade like americans in the 1930-40's looked on wall street in the 1920's
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:55 (3 years ago) Permalink
the crash comes?
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:56 (3 years ago) Permalink
when the crash comes.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 12:56 (3 years ago) Permalink
do people in ireland expect it to get drastically worse than it already is?
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:02 (3 years ago) Permalink
tbh relatively ireland aint that bad, yet, its not the 80s or even the early 90s but i mean
― plax (ico), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:04 (3 years ago) Permalink
i think it'll get iceland in september or so.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:05 (3 years ago) Permalink
jesus
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:06 (3 years ago) Permalink
there's still a huge amount of property overvaluation propping up the banks. foreclosures haven't started with gusto yet, but they will before long. the govt were criticised about predicting a 'soft landing' for the housing market instead of a crash in early 2008. that criticism was wrong- we're in the middle of our soft landing.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:07 (3 years ago) Permalink
there's huge amounts of empty houses- if the govt cut a deal to get these finished (create some employment for the 270k+ out of work atm, most of whom are relatively unskilled construction) and transferred to social housing as part of the NAMA deal (clear housing lists, get the blow to property value over quickly, get us off the property-as-an-'investment' fix that killed us) then we might make it.
can't see a FF led builder/banker/homeowner govt going for this, so we'll see ye at the IMF
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:10 (3 years ago) Permalink
(ps i am somewhat of a pessimist)
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:13 (3 years ago) Permalink
i read the irish times last week and it was a horror story enough what with the opaque banking system and the paedopriests
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:18 (3 years ago) Permalink
even at the time the bubble seemed deranged, at least in london there is a natural scarcity of land and influx of people that puts a highish limit on any price collapse but the value of a huge mcmansion in the irish countryside is pretty arbitrary in some senses
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:22 (3 years ago) Permalink
arbitrary?
4/5 bed mcmansions currently offered for rent at about €100 a week, and they're struggling to find biters at that. mortage on a property like that is likely to be anything from 750 pm upwards.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:29 (3 years ago) Permalink
that's kinda insane
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:31 (3 years ago) Permalink
compared to the sort of figures i'd be familiar with the price per sq ft is negligible, so without the land having much residual value it's sort of difficult to tell what else does? i dunno, you'll notice i'm somewhat unschooled in this area
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:36 (3 years ago) Permalink
land is rural in large part, rezoned through corrupt local planning decisions. it has absolutely nil residual value in most cases, and the houses are pretty much useless without the owner taking occupation.
i'm not sure about the likes of high density apts, city & town estates in the larger metropolitan areas, but given that there was more money in that side of things i'm fairly happy to assume that even where the values are holding in terms of investor groups picking up some of the slack, the oversupply biult up during the past decade is of at least the same magnitude.
estimates on empty housing units go as far as 300,000 iirc. govt disputes this of course. driving from the west coast to dublin, i'd not be surprised- anywhere west of the shannon new estate occupancy seems to be at about 20% for any development built in the past 3-4 years.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 13:58 (3 years ago) Permalink
The Construction Industry Federation has said there is a need for accurate, reliable data on housing stock levels.
It was responding to research by UCD which found that there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.
The CIF acknowledges that the figure is high but said different studies have come back with a variety of figures.
Its own figures suggest that 35,000-40,000 new homes remain unsold.
It says in Dublin the problem of unsold housing will resolve itself in around nine months, and with no development in the pipeline waiting-lists for housing will result in high growth areas.
The CIF admitted there is a problem in many counties around the country but said the market will ultimately sort that out.
the CIF are economists with the country's best interests at heart. they have rather magnificently been trying to float the idea of knocking all the empty houses as a keynesian macguffin exercise, because, hey, if oversupply's the problem then we've all got sledgehammers, right? expect sledgehammer rental prices, sledgehanmmer wielder wages to rise 40% this year. and on we go.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:02 (3 years ago) Permalink
there are 345,000 vacant houses and apartments across the country.
and there are about 4 million people? that's just.....
i dunno
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:06 (3 years ago) Permalink
no, i'll do it, i'm good with maths thingies.
everyone gets 1/16 of a house, assumign that all of the units will be accepted into NAMA (they won't be, but then there will be plenty of occupied units taken in under the 'We'll cover your stupidity' initiative.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:09 (3 years ago) Permalink
so what will you do with the airing cupboard of a bungalow in offaly?
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:11 (3 years ago) Permalink
well pre 2008 the obvious answer was rent it to a polish family.
i work in a housing scheme where the local authorities are renting properties to meet the needs of those on the housing list in the medium term. i can see most of those properties coming on to something like that- using excess capacity to actually solve a major problem.
everyone on a waiting list outside of the major metro areas (of which we have maybe 3) will have their housing need met or negated in the next three years, if we play it smart.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:17 (3 years ago) Permalink
everyone gets 1/16 of a house,
lol. that's 1/12 of a house. so i've upgraded from hotpress to downstairs loo.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:23 (3 years ago) Permalink
thought you must have been using the through the looking glass nu-maths popular in accountancy in the mid 00s
how much of that was developers assuming the population would be swollen by more immigrants? or did they assume everyone would go and buy a 3000sq ft house in the middle of nowhere
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:27 (3 years ago) Permalink
Developers only need to get a sale, they don't need a view on immigration, etc. Suspect cavalier investors were the target market there.
― Ismael Klata, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:36 (3 years ago) Permalink
they wouldn't factor into individual developments but surely larger developers would have queried the levels of surplus being created
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:42 (3 years ago) Permalink
it was banks lending to individuals for the mcmansions, tbh.
then there's a layer of builders that would have always worked in the trade on a one-job-at-a-time basis that got in above their heads. they'd have gotten away with a lot of it as they'd have worked fairly organically- disposing of properties to fund the purchase of other sites, etc. they've mostly folded/are in the process of folding and the banks now own/soon will own whatever unfinished/unsold properties remaind on their portfolios (there are lots of these guys). they just reacted to a big surge in activity/demand for their services, not pre-meditated at all.
then there are superdevelopers, in hoc to banks for hundreds of millions. most of their activites were predatory, cynical and premeditated only in the sense of skimming huge supernormal profit out of the boom. they'll walk away rich for the most part, protected by a labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:47 (3 years ago) Permalink
NAMA is taking on the bank's toxic balance sheet assets (at a PREMIUM to current market value, btw- think about that at a time when values are plummeting and 350k properties are empty- we are assured that developers will be pursued to the fullest extent by the govt after this occurs. i have grave doubts.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:48 (3 years ago) Permalink
sorry am a it tl:dr on this subject, but if you thought something was happening before your eyes that would lead to you emigrating in protest, you might be a little O_o yrself.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 14:54 (3 years ago) Permalink
no, it's miserable but sadly compelling reading
labrynthine relationship between govt officials, bankers, the law system and a fairly apathetic/powerless electorate.
this isn't going to change is it?
― nakhchivan, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 15:01 (3 years ago) Permalink
at a PREMIUM to current market value
i believe the term was 'Future Value'.
― Michael B, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 15:02 (3 years ago) Permalink
they're not paying me at 'future value'. why not assume i'll get better at a rate of 8% per annum all of a sudden?
xp all depends on the apathetic part. there will be public sector strike action, i'm only hoping that it's as part of a total shutdown of the country. more than likely, it will be played beautifully as the elite protected workers rubbing it into the faces of the unemployed/private sector.
they're corrupt, venal, self serving and shallow cunts, FF, but they're not fucking stupid
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 15:08 (3 years ago) Permalink
was just pointing out the absurdity of it all with that phrase, darragh. dont see anyone in irish politics willing to switch the game up and the older generation (people who vote) still seem to cling to some hope that shure it'll have to get better soon.
― Michael B, Wednesday, 24 March 2010 15:13 (3 years ago) Permalink
yeah i know.
nobody in irish politics exists that has credibility to lead the assault on the banking and property sectors necessary. it will take something huge from outside the establishment to change that.
joe higgins and pat rabbitte need to procreate, basically. we can shelter the progeny through the dark years as a light in the darkness
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Wednesday, 24 March 2010 15:20 (3 years ago) Permalink
CSO Figures show drop of 11.3% from 2008 in GNP
First calls from a backbencher for Cowen to resign. Not news until FF TD's are actually calling for an election, tbh, and not good news until they're decimated in that election.
― DarraghmacKwacz (darraghmac), Thursday, 25 March 2010 12:46 (3 years ago) Permalink