Ned that sounds so sarcastic!
― Vichitravirya_XI, Friday, 17 October 2008 22:33 (fifteen years ago) link
Not in the least. AKM was very clear about his concerns re: work on this thread earlier.
― Ned Raggett, Friday, 17 October 2008 22:34 (fifteen years ago) link
Sorry I didn't catch that
So...2008 != 1929, but rather 1873, the "real" Great (orig. Long) Depression, says:
http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?id=477k3d8mh2wmtpc4b6h07p4hy9z83x18
If true considering the Panic of 1873 didn't subside fully until the mid-1890s, this is no mo reassuring, methinks
Quotes:
The problems had emerged around 1870, starting in Europe. In the Austro-Hungarian Empire, formed in 1867, in the states unified by Prussia into the German empire, and in France, the emperors supported a flowering of new lending institutions that issued mortgages for municipal and residential construction, especially in the capitals of Vienna, Berlin, and Paris. Mortgages were easier to obtain than before, and a building boom commenced. Land values seemed to climb and climb; borrowers ravenously assumed more and more credit, using unbuilt or half-built houses as collateral.---But the economic fundamentals were shaky. Wheat exporters from Russia and Central Europe faced a new international competitor who drastically undersold them. The 19th-century version of containers manufactured in China and bound for Wal-Mart consisted of produce from farmers in the American Midwest.---The crash came in Central Europe in May 1873, as it became clear that the region's assumptions about continual economic growth were too optimistic. Europeans faced what they came to call the American Commercial Invasion. A new industrial superpower had arrived, one whose low costs threatened European trade and a European way of life.
As continental banks tumbled, British banks held back their capital, unsure of which institutions were most involved in the mortgage crisis...---As the panic deepened, ordinary Americans suffered terribly. A cigar maker named Samuel Gompers who was young in 1873 later recalled that with the panic, "economic organization crumbled with some primeval upheaval." Between 1873 and 1877, as many smaller factories and workshops shuttered their doors, tens of thousands of workers — many former Civil War soldiers — became transients. The terms "tramp" and "bum," both indirect references to former soldiers, became commonplace American terms.---In the end, the Panic of 1873 demonstrated that the center of gravity for the world's credit had shifted west — from Central Europe toward the United States. The current panic suggests a further shift — from the United States to China and India. Beyond that I would not hazard a guess...
― Vichitravirya_XI, Friday, 17 October 2008 22:42 (fifteen years ago) link
I have no idea whether this crisis really resembles one past crisis or another, but the argument reminds me a bit too much of the one about whether Iraq is more like WW2 or Vietnam or Korea or the Spanish American War or whatever.
― Everything is Highlighted (Hurting 2), Thursday, October 9, 2008 10:50 PM (1 week ago) Bookmark
― Tyrone Quattlebaum (Hurting 2), Friday, 17 October 2008 22:55 (fifteen years ago) link
And even if it DOES look relatively more like the depression of 1873 than any other depression, that tells us very little of any use as to how long it will last, how bad it will be or how to get out of it.
― Tyrone Quattlebaum (Hurting 2), Friday, 17 October 2008 22:56 (fifteen years ago) link
That doesnt really engage with or counter or answer or refute or entertain any of those pts tho :(
― Vichitravirya_XI, Friday, 17 October 2008 22:57 (fifteen years ago) link
x-post
Well historical antecedents can at least give us an idea, a reference points, a mental framework of either the underlying causes or the possible solutions that exist. Otherwise why study history? If nothing, all the talk of Bernanke being "ooh deep txtbook expert on Gr8 Depression" will be irrelevant
― Vichitravirya_XI, Friday, 17 October 2008 23:00 (fifteen years ago) link
Also economic crises and wars are not a good analogy
― Vichitravirya_XI, Friday, 17 October 2008 23:01 (fifteen years ago) link
thanks ned! I still face potentially losing my job but at least I didn't wipe out on my retirement account too.
― akm, Friday, 17 October 2008 23:13 (fifteen years ago) link
sweet goodbye letter from a retiring hedge fund manager who made huge profits betting against mortgages
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/daily-brief/2008/10/17/hedge-fund-manager-goodbye-and-f-you
― parade! (ice crӕm), Saturday, 18 October 2008 14:45 (fifteen years ago) link
A nice sensible letter.
― Every Day Jimmy Mod Is Hustlin' (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Saturday, 18 October 2008 14:51 (fifteen years ago) link
made like $20m - now i get high - c u fools l8r
― parade! (ice crӕm), Saturday, 18 October 2008 14:54 (fifteen years ago) link
i like the hemp part best - dude left college as a sophomore, right?
― gabbneb, Saturday, 18 October 2008 14:54 (fifteen years ago) link
how do you bet on the subprime collapse? will the answer involve several paragraphs that i wont understand anyway?
― max, Saturday, 18 October 2008 15:16 (fifteen years ago) link
prob some type of shorting - tho im sure theres endless complexities
― parade! (ice crӕm), Saturday, 18 October 2008 15:23 (fifteen years ago) link
Max:
credit default swap:
basically you purchase "insurance" on a monetary device that you might not even own a part of. In exchange for the fees you pay for the "insurance," you get the full value of the monetary device if it defaults. "Insurance" is in quotation marks because it is un-regulated. The idea of "betting on the collapse" means that if you have no real stake in the instrument in the form of ownership, you're basically HOPING that the instrument defaults.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap
― Every Day Jimmy Mod Is Hustlin' (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Saturday, 18 October 2008 16:06 (fifteen years ago) link
man all this shit just makes me wish i had a time machine
― max, Saturday, 18 October 2008 16:16 (fifteen years ago) link
its unlikely this guy made his money through credit default swaps tho as those insuring the defaults never had the money to pay up in the 1st place - hence their primacy in our current crisis
prob did it by shorting securities w/a lot of exposure to the mortgage market ie bear sterns stock
― parade! (ice crӕm), Saturday, 18 October 2008 16:18 (fifteen years ago) link
the way people were making crazy money through cds was being on the insuring end and collecting the payments - which on its face isnt v profitable - but when u leverage yr investment x100 the yr looking good
thats how these big hedge fund made such crazy profits - safe bets hugely leveraged
and when you think abt it betting that the biggest insurance company in the world wont default does seem like a ridiculously safe bet - but then when they do not only do you not have a fraction of the money to payout that insurance you were supplying - you cant even pay back all that money you borrowed to amplify yr supposedly safe bet
one can see how this became a dicey propitiation for the whole industry real quick
― parade! (ice crӕm), Saturday, 18 October 2008 16:23 (fifteen years ago) link
blaming ivy legacies is always 100% cool with me
― El Tomboto, Saturday, 18 October 2008 17:45 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/business/media/20carr.html?_r=1&hp&oref=loginI wonder if Cramer will even stay on the air much longer -- his philosophy and style seem like they'll be out of step with our new leaner times. I already feel like he's a relic, in a way.
― Tyrone Quattlebaum (Hurting 2), Monday, 20 October 2008 02:14 (fifteen years ago) link
that anyone ever watched that guy for anything more than lolz is pretty terrifying
― 888 (ice crӕm), Monday, 20 October 2008 13:10 (fifteen years ago) link
-514 Dow
does Obama really need this much help?
― Dr Morbius, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 20:26 (fifteen years ago) link
Yeah, someone tell Soros he can stop shorting the market to hell now. Obama's got it locked up.
― o. nate, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 21:09 (fifteen years ago) link
they should change the name to the Down Jones
― Adam Bruneau, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 22:05 (fifteen years ago) link
I love how the misery has become totally routinized now
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 23:17 (fifteen years ago) link
Dow falls 500 points and it's like what else ya got
Vic, i wouldn't quote a 130 year old analogy.
2008 is an unprecedented worry and there ain't shit you can do to predict much of what will happen. sorry
― Joe Petagno's Imagination Station! (Mackro Mackro), Wednesday, 22 October 2008 23:28 (fifteen years ago) link
When I look at the volatility of the stock market lately, the word "teetering" comes unbidden to mind.
― Aimless, Thursday, 23 October 2008 00:44 (fifteen years ago) link
“I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms,” Mr. Greenspan said.
Referring to his free-market ideology, Mr. Greenspan added: “I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact.”
EAT IT, GRAMPS
― Dr Morbius, Thursday, 23 October 2008 19:27 (fifteen years ago) link
that quote.
― joe 40oz (deej), Thursday, 23 October 2008 20:20 (fifteen years ago) link
he looks like a melting wax figure or something blech
― jordan s (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 23 October 2008 20:22 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/23/bank.letters/index.html
I work in one of these buildings (small US treasury outpost on the 5th floor), tuesday was fun
One of the weirdest aspects of the whole campaign has been seeing the Weathermen become a household name again. Smearing Obama with Ayers was unconscionable, given the more-than-likely chance that domestic terrorism is about to make a huge comeback -- stirring this garbage into the air right before a small storm starts breaking from below is going to confuse an awful lot of people.
― Milton Parker, Thursday, 23 October 2008 22:56 (fifteen years ago) link
KING BLOOMBERG
― cool app (uh oh I'm having a fantasy), Thursday, 23 October 2008 23:22 (fifteen years ago) link
o man remember when the whole world was on greenspans nuts
― 888 (ice crӕm), Thursday, 23 October 2008 23:39 (fifteen years ago) link
!!!
― Gavin "Spinner" Mason (carne asada), Friday, 24 October 2008 13:22 (fifteen years ago) link
What?!
― Ismael Klata, Friday, 24 October 2008 13:28 (fifteen years ago) link
Dow futures fall 550. Omg!
― Gavin "Spinner" Mason (carne asada), Friday, 24 October 2008 13:35 (fifteen years ago) link
greenspanznuts
― BIG HOOS was a communisteen orgadriver (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Friday, 24 October 2008 13:36 (fifteen years ago) link
I always knew Greeenspansnuts fans were nuts.
It's a whole new level when NPR sez in the a.m., "well the Dow is gonna have maybe it's worst day ever."
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 24 October 2008 13:39 (fifteen years ago) link
at least your dollar can now buy lots of useless pounds to buy worthless shares on the FTSE
― stet, Friday, 24 October 2008 13:43 (fifteen years ago) link
Referring to his free-market ideology, Mr. Greenspan added: “I have found a flaw. It seems that greedy people will act delusionally in their own self-interest. I did not see that one coming, and it was like... whoah.”
― Edward III, Friday, 24 October 2008 13:46 (fifteen years ago) link
My graph way up there ^ is showing the dow down a mere 7 points. What's all the fuss?
― Ismael Klata, Friday, 24 October 2008 13:49 (fifteen years ago) link
ah, there we go
― Ismael Klata, Friday, 24 October 2008 13:53 (fifteen years ago) link
looooool
― BIG HOOS was a communisteen orgadriver (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Friday, 24 October 2008 14:03 (fifteen years ago) link
more-than-likely chance that domestic terrorism is about to make a huge comeback
???
― kingkongvsgodzilla, Friday, 24 October 2008 14:06 (fifteen years ago) link
Greenspan naivete = that of an Oklahoma church youth-group member
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 24 October 2008 14:10 (fifteen years ago) link
One problem with predicting the Dow is that the Federal Reserve is empowered to purchase whatever assets it wishes. Under Greenspan it formed something they called the Plunge Protection Team, with a brief to enter the stock market as a buyer when other buyers were staying out of the market. Its activites are not announced.
One way or another, there seems to be resistance whenever the Dow heads for 8000 territory. It is noteworthy that, if sellers were overwhelming the market, no amount of artificial demand could stop the descent. So, I'd say the resistance has at least some validity.
― Aimless, Friday, 24 October 2008 19:01 (fifteen years ago) link
Chase admits that they'll be using their bailout money to buy other banks, not loosen up the loan market: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/25nocera.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&ref=business&pagewanted=all
― YGS, Saturday, 25 October 2008 15:29 (fifteen years ago) link