PECOTA is out

i know--like, they couldn't find a CS major who was looking for a couple months of work?

wieters lol

scottmerkin #White Sox listed in a tie for second with the Tigers at 79-83 through PECOTA projections. Twins win the AL Central at 82-80.

LOOOOL

NYY will miss playoffs.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/PECOTA-projections-say-Yanks-will-miss-playoffs-?urn=mlb,216329

nats at 82-80 haha

this is the most o_O preliminary pecota i've seen yet

also nice of them to throw these up 3 days before my subscription runs out, not sure yet if i'm gonna renew again

ysi?

sent to the gmail in yr profile

<3 u :-*

nats at 82-80 haha

srsly?

pecota is trolling

handmade, dogg

― Past a Diving Jeter (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, March 24, 2009 12:10 PM (10 months ago) Bookmark

lol wtf

wtf what?

you typed "dogg"!

Initial thoughts:

09 World Champs NYY - PECOTA shows huge outlier for Jeter's 09, collapsing back to earth in 2010. Of the 9 Yankee starters (Gardner over Winn btw), only 1 player is projecting UNDER .355 OBP (Cano at .342) which is really scary. New acquisition DH Nick Johnson projects a team leading .420!

In fact, their starters (CC, Vazquez, AJ, Joba) all project high (25-43 VORP) and they've got Rivera so it leads me to believe that PECOTA2010's doom and gloom is all hinged on a questionable 5th starter and mediocre bullpen (all of which can be solved by the all-star break in typical NYY style?)...

Or is it aging defense? I don't get it...

no it can't be defense, only Jeter (-11) and Posada (-4) are rated below league average.

93 wins, though.

yeah rlly, 92-98 wins for all three teams is not a shocking call. Injuries and other unforeseeables will determine the order.

J, I am familiar w/ early 21st century vernacular.

rlyw described pecota as assuming that the bullpen would be terrible and the nyy wouldnt do anything to fix it and so their 93 wins proj was basically bullshit. they also said one of their multipliers was inexplicably high compared to previous years and that = bullshit

"The CAIRO IP are based on the last set of Diamond Mind simulations I ran, averaged over 100 seasons so they don't line up with what the CAIRO spreadsheet, and they need to be tweaked further. I didn't realize Burnett was only pitching 167 innings, for example. However, if you look at where things differ, it's primarily with Burnett and Gaudin in terms of rate of performance, and then in how many innings they're allocating to people like Boone Logan and Jonathan Albaladejo.

Digging a little deeper into what these numbers say, PECOTA isn't displaying total runs allowed so I divided the total 789 runs allowed in their standings by the 673 projected earned runs on the team depth chart to reverse engineer it. Right off the bat this looks off, because the ratio is 1.172. The typical ratio is generally 1.08. In fact, this is really, really, really screwed up. Since 1946, there have been 1507 team seasons. I'm using that cutoff to remove the small glove/ deadball era and the WWII era where you had players who didn't belong in the majors to get closer to the modern error rate. In those 1507 seasons, there have been 59 teams that had a RA/ER ratio that high or worse. So they're either predicting the 2010 Yankees to allow unearned runs at a rate that has happened at a rate of 0.03915063 in the MLB team seasons since 1946, or they screwed something up.

They have some smart guys over there, so my guess is it's the latter. As someone who screws up his spreadsheets constantly, I can understand that. I left a comment over there asking for them to elaborate. So don't worry about these yet."

Neyer is going over the CAIRO projs (which I'd never heard of):

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot

"I'm waiting to be convinced. BP didn't have a good 2009, and there are some squirrelly things people have noticed about the 2010 numbers. "

Steven Strasburg: 1.40 WHIP, 4.07 ERA
Matt Wieters: .289/.363/.464

Best Defenders by Position by League:
1B: Pujols, David Ortiz (lol wut!!!)
2B: Utley, Mark Ellis
3B: Rolen, Longoria
C: Yadier, Dioner
CF: Carlos Gomez, Franklin Gutierrez
LF: Nyjer Morgan, Crawford
RF: Jayson Werth, Ichiro
SS: Tulo, Vizquel

Worst Defenders by Position by League:
1B: Fielder, Miguel Cabrera
2B: Luis Castillo, Alberto Callaspo (?KC)
3B: Mat Gamel (?MIL), Edwin Encarnacion
C: John Baker (?FLO), Josh Bard
CF: Nate McClouth, Torii Hunter
LF: Jason Bay, Travis Snider (?TOR)
RF: Hawpe, Abreu
SS: Yuniesky, Jeter

Eric Seidman, BP:

Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.

One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.

Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).

These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates.

and they're unmessed:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

angels last in the west? umm

C: John Baker (?FLO)

he's an original moneyballer

PECOTA predicts that 22/30 teams will finish within five games of .500 = PECOTA thinks MLB is the NFL.

There was a season recently where this just about happened... or, I think, everyone was between .400 and .600.

Obviously PECOTA not apt to predict flameouts and all-goes-right years.

Yeah, but this is a lot more extreme -- they're predicting that more than 70% of MLB teams will finish between .470 and .530!

Not predicting flameouts and all-goes-right years != widespread parity in baseball

I have no idea if there's been a season where 70% of MLB teams have finished between .470 and .530... seems possible. (sounds like the entire NL East in '73)

nats will be a .500 team? really pecota?

Esp. surprising given Strasburg's rather conservative estimates.

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

Good point, the only Dodger who showing an above average defensive rating is Martin. NB: Not sure how wonx0red my PECOTA data is, I got it before they admitted it was janky.

Got revised again. Dodgers still have absurdly low runs allowed totals. But slip to 3rd in the NL West behind AZ and Colorado.

They really have to learn not to jump the gun trying to please the panting anticipation of roto maniacs.

seriously. they look like idiots.

I don't look at that stuff in any depth til the last week before the season.

yeah it's crazy to put it out so early given that rosters aren't even really set yet. who cares? but between this and the infamous no index book they've been sort of lame recently.

Kahrl boasted last week that the new annual will have an index.

i saw that; v. nearly started my own slow clap cause that's the least the incredible feat of having an index deserves

PECOTA is down and out

Is anyone other than Goldstein/Kahrl worth reading anymore? Or worth paying for the right to read (more accurately)?

pretty sure i'm gonna cancel when my sub is up in may