Hall of Fame Ballot 2017

RETURNING

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Trevor Hoffman
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

NEW

Casey Blake
Pat Burrell
Orlando Cabrera
Mike Cameron
J.D. Drew
Carlos Guillen
Vladimir Guerrero
Derek Lee
Melvin Mora
Magglio Ordonez
Jorge Posada
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Renteria
Arthur Rhodes
Ivan Rodriguez
Freddy Sanchez
Matt Stairs
Jason Varitek
Tim Wakefield

Going in: Bagwell, Raines

50-65%: Vlad, I-Rod

Closer: Schilling, Edgar, Mussina

Drop-off: Hoffman

PED group: no idea

i wld think schilling might fall way off. like, as conservative as BBWA is I can't imagine anyone wanting that yang to speak at the BBHOF

raines is probably going in, bagwell sure why not. hoffman? idk.

i feel like bonds might get closer.

of the new crew, i'd say pudge has a shot of making it in his first or second year, manny soon after, and posada and vladimir might sneak in there at some point?

i don't think posada has a shot

I think Posada's career kind of reminds me of Bill Freehan or maybe Lance Parrish and Varitek isn't dissimilar to maybe Tim McCarver. They all definitely deserve entrance to the hall of very good.

I think the catcher that seems to me that doesn't get the Hall of Fame talk who looks pretty good to me is Ted Simmons. Maybe it is that he spent more of his career at other positions than some other catchers. Simmons could definitely hit. I remember him more from baseball cards and being a DH/C on the Brewers world series team.

Billy Wagner won't make the Hall, but that guy at times was one of the hardest pitchers to hit. He was the closest in pure power at closer to someone like Aroldis Chapman as their was in his era. And he was such a little dude throwing that hard. Wagner had a good career, but Riviera and to a lesser extent Hoffman kind of re-wrote the book on longevity and total numbers.

Casey Blake - This guy had a nice career and really did not get any good until he was 29 and stayed fairly productive up to age 36. Leads me to wonder what turned around for him.
Pat Burrell - Pretty classic career arc, falling off a cliff at age 32. He was definitely a fan favorite in Philly for a while, especially with the ladies. Dude was a brick playing defense later on his career.
Orlando Cabrera - Solid player with a long career.
Mike Cameron - Being good with the glove kept him in the big leagues for a long time.
J.D. Drew - This guy seemed to be hyped to be the next big thing and just ended up pretty good.
Carlos Guillen - Good bat for a short stop.
Vladimir Guerrero - He's definitely one of the best bad ball hitters I have ever seen. The guy could pull stuff off the ground like John Daly in golf. I think he is a borderline HOF canidate.
Derek Lee - He had a good career.
Melvin Mora - don't really know him. He had some good seasons.
Magglio Ordonez- He had a really good career, lots of power. Injuries cost him some of the number add up in his prime.
Jorge Posada - Good catcher and iconic player of a period with the Yanks.
Manny Ramirez- The guy was nuts, but he is one of the best right handed power hitters ever. Roids will keep him out for a while.
Edgar Renteria - Injuries seem to slow him up, early on he seemed to be a HOF canidate as he started so young and was so successful.
Arthur Rhodes - He pitched forver and could still bring the heat in his 40s.
Ivan Rodriguez - He's one of the best catchers ever both hitting and defense. Roids...
Freddy Sanchez - His 2006 is one heck of an outlier season.
Matt Stairs - Dude played forever and seemed to be a heck of a pinch hitter later in his career.
Jason Varitek - Good player, will beloved in Boston for a long time.
Tim Wakefield - Amazing career for a knuckleballer and you have to love him as a player for keeping that pitch going. He was a pretty valuable mid rotation pitcher.

I don't think Schilling's politics will matter much (a matter of public record for a while, no?). Since coming on the ballot, he's gone 39%, 29%, 39%, 52%; his second-year dip was the Maddux/Glavine/Thomas year, then he started going up 10%+ a year. I'd say he goes in in 2018 or 2019.

Hoffman debuted last year at 67%, so I'm sure precedent says he's guaranteed to go in this year or next. I don't know, though--it feels like a corner's been turned with closers, and maybe that'll turn out to be his peak of support.

It's maybe petty of me but I'm cool with Schilling never making the HOF just because of his involvement with Breitbart and whatnot.

Edgar Renteria actually looked to have a pretty good shot at 3,000 hits at one point. He was playing full-time at 19, was very durable for his first decade, and coming out of his age-30 season had 1,934 hits, a lifetime average of .291, and had just hit a career-best .332 (his first year under 130 games since coming up, though). The Favorite Toy put him at 45% going into the 2008 season.

He only played four more seasons, though, and retired at 34 with 2,327 hits.

Fuck politics, if being a prick counted against you for the HOF then plenty of guys wouldn't be voted in (I still can't believe that Jim Rice was not only voted in, but upheld as the standard of "clean" baseball the way it should be played). Schilling's case is at least as strong as Smoltz's was, and he was a first ballot HOFer.

If Bonds and Palmeiro aren't close to getting in, then Manny isn't getting in (unfortunately).

Mike Cameron was very good and underrated in his time. 46.5 WAR, for over a decade was a consistent 20-30 HR threat who could run and play great defense. If he was in his prime today he'd be more appreciated and probably could have landed a FA contract similar to Heyward's. He's not a HOFer but at the same time I hate to see guys like him go one and done.

yeah but the difference is that schilling is doing it AS WE SPEAK and in a v public way xp

vlad vlad vlad vlad vlad

"What's more, [Javy] Vazquez ranks 30th all-time in strikeouts (2,536)"

wat u learn abaot on internet today

This year's tracker:

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7731&ithint=file,xlsm&app=Excel&authkey=!AE2Lu5P1f92OW8o

One ballot in.

No edgar but I could see that be strategic

Bagwell, Raines, and I-Rod are all 10/11 so far (10/10 + one anonymous ballot). Mussina and Schilling not doing well.

too soon for any tea leaves; lee smith is at 64% ffs

i am frightened for Raines... THE MAN BELONGS!

smith's at 69% now...i bet he's going to get a lot more votes this year since it's his final season but i'm not expecting him to come close to making it. i feel good about raines.

i felt good about the US election...

i remember feeling good

i don't

Bud Selig, for his Kenesaw Mountain Landis-resolve in staring down the emerging PED problem during the 1990s.

grew it to a $9 billion/year industry, i think that's the relevant fact here.

who's the last commish who didn't get in? Eckert?

Ueberroth, Giamatti, and Vincent aren't in (didn't serve long enough), but I think every commissioner who served 10+ years is in.

I can't think of any specific skill that Selig used to grow the game to 9B/yr, I think that would have happened with just about any other commissioner.

This got things started, unless you count Ripken's streak, which I don't really see from an economic standpoint.

http://sportsthenandnow.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/McGwire-Sosa-3.jpg

http://sportsthenandnow.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/McGwire-Sosa-3.jpg

I can't think of any specific skill that Selig used to grow the game to 9B/yr

of course not, but he'll get the credit anyhoo.

how the hell is Giamatti, not to mention Marvin Miller, not in when a dozen stooges put BOWIE KUHN in? HOF is a joke.

@jonahkeri
Per BBWAA vote: Starting next year, all Hall of Fame ballots will be made public.

https://twitter.com/jonahkeri/status/806184630583967748

Lotta Bill King love in the Bay Area today.

Seeing as the early public ballots tend to be PED-friendly, there's a strong possibility Gary Sheffield's going to come in under 5%--he's 1 for 22 so far.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/cardinals-nearing-deal-free-agent-with-dexter-fowler.html

oops, wrong thread

steven marcus, new york newsday

https://twitter.com/Sean_Rosales/status/809162740556300288

52 ballots so far.

1. Raines and Bagwell are going in. They're marching in lockstep, 50 out of 52 both.

2. Right now I-Rod is ahead of Vlad 80% to 71%. I don't know if there's still a late-vote = more-traditional component to the voting--all ballots are public now, right, which would eliminate that. If it is still there, I would expect that gap to narrow and that they'll both be close.

3. Hoffman's at 75%, so I'd say doubtful.

4. Clemens and Bonds are both at 68%--if not this year, maybe they are going to make it before their ten years are up.

5. Edgar and Mussina are doing pretty well at 64%.

Edgar should be doing better!

I agree--he should be in--but he hasn't cracked 45% yet, so if time doesn't run out on him (two more tries after this year, I think), that indicates he may get in at the wire.

The SABR-friendly writers always publicize their ballots first, so Edgar and Mussina will drop a lot. Clemens and Bonds in the upper 60's is surprising though!

126 ballots public, and Clemens and Bonds are at 77%. Maybe not this year, but pretty clearly they are going in.

Love Vlad of course, but him getting into the HoF before Mussina, Edgar and Walker is a bit much.

Very different players, but I might put him on par with Walker. Walker does better on the JAWS scale by 10+ WAR, but I think that's distorted a little bit by his years in Colorado and Guerrero's early retirement. Their years in Montreal are hard to compare--Vlad was there during the offensive boom, whereas Walker caught just the beginning--but for what it's worth:

Guerrero -- 1004 games, .323/.390/.588, 234 HR, 148 OPS+, 5.8 WAR/650 PA
Walker -- 674 games, .281/.357/.483, 99 HR, 128 OPS+, 5.6 WAR/650 PA

Again, hard to compare. Walker was just getting started when he left, Vlad had his greatest years there.

wasn't sure vlad was ever gonna get in, surprised he could be a first ballot guy

always thought walker was a hof player, vlad too def

looks like raines is going to slide in easily and here i was worried he wouldn't crack through in the end.

i have a little hope for larry walker even though he's only got three years after this one. i feel like he could be the next cause célèbre for a lot of the writers. out of the batters on the ballot, he seems to be the one who needs the most help and who would deserve it. can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade.

the "no one's ever passed the 50% threshold without eventually being elected" thing was before they shaved 5 years off of "eventually"

it's actually happened several times! jim bunning, jack morris, lee smith

ah morris and smith both ran out of time super recently and i forgot they existed, and i guess whoever came up with the figure considered vets committee guys just as well

2021 - none afaict

Right--good year for anyone who's lingering and close to get in.

The quality of players now being elected to the Hall of Fame is better than it has ever been, except for the "start-up" phase of the Hall of Fame, 1936 to 1942, when the voters could cherry-pick the biggest stars from baseball’s first six decades.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/we_got_standards (free)

also, posnanski runs with a brian kenny joke -- penalizing suspected juicers by adjusting their numbers as if they'd played in a horribly punishing environment, in this case dodger stadium in 1968: http://joeposnanski.com/the-ballpark-penalty

(xpost) Tempted to say that Rice and, to a lesser extent, Dawson will be the last widely disputed inductees for a while, but obviously not true--Hoffman's going in next year.

(Disputed on their own merits: not "no way Smoltz should go in before Mussina," but simply "no way Smoltz should be in the Hall of Fame.")

people will dispute edgar, i'm sure

and tbf if bruce sutter is in, hoffman probably should be too

no that is terrible logic!!

omar vizquel and his 11 gold gloves might cause some words to be exchanged over the next however many years

let's just let anyone who was good in

jd drew, congratulations, you were pretty good at one point, you're a hall of famer

breathe

jd drew, later in life

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5wEhXxva2w

tim salmon, your JAWS only including HOF members whose names are fish-related is very respectable. you're a hall of famer

if trevor hoffman had to get into the HOF on performance alone he'd get one or two votes on the ballot, he owes jerome holtzman's heirs like 50 million out of the 80 million he made in his career.

I do think Tim Salmon might be the one of the best players to never make an All Star team. Seems like he would have done it at least once. It's not like those early Angels clubs he was one were loaded or anything.

trout is wrecking the curve for fish-related-named ballplayers

i do think he was overshadowed a bit during his whole run with the Angels, there were a number of guys who emerged around the time he did (Snow, Edmonds, Anderson) who didn't exactly steal his thunder but didn't make him stand out either. then later Glaus and Erstad and (lol) Eckstein were around. still, it's pretty amazing he was never an AS. placed in some MVP voting and won rookie of the year and won a WS, though.

omar vizquel and his 11 gold gloves might cause some words to be exchanged over the next however many years

Vizquel probably would've drawn considerable support 20-25 years ago--pretty good comp for Luis Aparicio--but I don't think there's any way in the world he gets in now.

i don't think he'll make it, but he could be the next jack morris for a while.

I don't think arguments over the players who fall short will ever stop--everyone has a pet project--or arguments over A-before-B-but-after-C. What I was saying was that (Hoffman aside, who will likely be the last closer for a long while) arguments over the deservedness of inductees are going to all but disappear. As James says above in mookie's link, the quality of inductees now is stronger than at any time since the first few years, and I can't see that reversing course.

who will likely be the last closer for a long while

i can think of one other

probably should give hoffman a break, over his career his WAR is almost at the level of Pedro

(Astacio)

(xposts)

Oops--one other, duh. After him, I don't think the issue will come up again until at least 2032, when possibly you'll have Kimbrel and/or Chapman and/or Jansen. Unless the whole idea of a closer in the HOF is a non-starter by then.

i think the whole idea should be a non-starter now, i think closers are basically the https://38.media.tumblr.com/cfc78865c263aa2b61bdbdea149525e9/tumblr_inline_mxybtzhwSD1r4xj1z.gif of MLB

You'd at least make an exception for Mariano?

yeah i mean Mariano was I think on another level, far lower ERA than hoffman and double the WAR and all the postseason stuff. but i don't think he's "inner circle" or whatever, which is what his vote total will indicate.

how do we feel about andruw

despite his utter collapse at age 31, his numbers are almost there and he played some otherworldly defense

i think that unlike vizquel (to whom he is probably gonna be compared), andruw was a true superstar for a solid stretch of time

I think we got into this a couple years ago...Myself, Sandy Koufax excluded, a player who accumulated almost all his value before he was 30 should not be in the Hall of Fame.

i dunno,, i mean his ten season run from age 20-29 was pretty amazing. he averaged about 6 WAR at that time. i'm not totally sold on him but if he got in i'd be cool with it.

Clemenza, i somehow misread that as you saying you were in the BBHOF

he said "should" -- clemenza should be in the HOF

Believe me, I accumulated all my value before I was 17 at best--I've just been killing time since then.

I'll admit to a huge blind-spot with Jones: I'm not conversant with newer defensive metrics, and remain far more trusting of offensive numbers. To a certain extent, I'm still stuck on the eye-test when it comes to defense...I can confidently say Pillar's great, and I can be stubborn about saying Alomar was great, but with Jones, besides the awkward (again, for me--it doesn't bother everyone) shape of his career, I have to accept that 40% of his career value is tied up in defensive numbers that I find much more elusive than offensive or pitching stats. I'd rather see Jim Edmonds in there (they're close--Jones does a little better under JAWS).

he did hit 434 homers and stole 152 bases, so it's not like he was *only* defense

and yeah it was a time of many dingers, but he's ahead of both piazza and ripken. decent counting stats considering the shape of his career

i'd probably put Edmonds in ahead of Jones but i think both should be in there tbh. i don't anticipate either getting in unless there's some miracle via the vet committee.

I think Walker will get in one day, speaking of underrated OFers. i think the vets will put him in eventually.

FG on andruw

are we resigned to ortiz getting in without much debate? lower WAR than jim rice, who i figured he'd spend his candidacy being compared to before he went and had his best season since 07

Likely behind the paywall, but James's Andruw piece from three years ago:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/andruw/?AuthorId=3&pg=6&F_All=y

I have done the best I could to place Jones in the "right" position as a defensive player, and, as I said, I have confidence that my system is generally right on a certain level. But I can’t prove that those who would give more weight to his defense are absolutely wrong, just as I don’t believe that they can prove that they’re right. But based on my understanding of the record, Jones’ fielding

a) Was only truly outstanding through 2002; after that his Gold Gloves were mostly just reputation, and

b) Was not of substantial enough value that we should consider him an all-time great player.

I would put Andruw in a class with Vada Pinson, Cesar Cedeno, Fred Lynn and perhaps a few others. Jimmy Wynn and Dale Murphy. These men, all center fielders, were all tremendous players when they were young--such tremendous players that they didn’t need to develop in order to become Hall of Famers; they merely needed to sustain their level of performance for a reasonably full career. But, for whatever reason, they weren’t able to do that, and fell short of a Hall of Fame standard.

I think he's revised his opinion a little upwards--he posted something yesterday that put Andruw as a B-level HOF'er, whereas Edmonds fell into the C category--but I'm not sure if he's in favor of induction yet.

For me, if you dominate your position for ten straight years then you have a strong HOF argument. So I think Edmonds has been underrated.

On one hand I agree with clem about Andruw Jones but OTOH the age think seems arbitrary. Roy Halladay also had ten great years and literally nothing else but most of us think he's a clear HOFer. However Jones got fat and arguably wasted his talent whereas Halladay got injured which was a kind of fluke and not his fault, should this matter? My gut feeling is that it should, but again I'm not sure.

age thing, not think

i have absolutely no problem with david ortiz going into the hall of fame

Hope Edgar gets there first, but I think Ortiz is automatic at this point.

Some cool pics of I-Rod visiting Puerto Rico today and tonight going around on the internet I saw on a baseball group on Facebook. He visited a children's hospital and then was a guest at the team he played winter ball back on.

Is there a chance for Scott Rolen to get in? or is he going to Edmondsed?

I think he's headed for a Tim Raines-like extended stay on the ballot, but because things are moving more and more in a sabermetric direction, he will get in towards the end of his 10 years.

he's gonna have trouble getting 5% though, isn't he? the ballot is still crowded