Hot Stove 2023-2024

Nola staying in Philly for 7Y/$172M.

Not a bad deal. Makes sense for all parties.

i had no skin in the game, but was rooting for Nola to be a Philly for life (obv could still possibly be traded).
also i am now 1/1 on the mlbtr contest.

Trade news, per ESPN sources:

Arizona Diamondbacks acquire third baseman Eugenio Suarez.

Seattle Mariners acquire reliever Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala.

Diamondbacks get their third baseman. Mariners move money off the books and get a live arm and backup catcher.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 22, 2023

the cardinals signed lance lynn, who in 2023 had the second worst HR/9 since 2000 (worst was jose lima, 2000, 2.20 HR/9). however, he does eat a lot of innings, really painful eatings. like miles mikolas, another guy who you can count on to throw 190 mediocre innings. to shore up the staff, yesterday the cardinals signed mediocre innings-eater kyle gibson

the 2024 innings are being gobbled up in stl, we are good to go on the innings being covered and played in a professional manner

I'm seein' triple - three James Shields!

hey when you gotta big game coming up...

of course i could be way wrong on one or more of them (lynn/gibson/mikolas) - all three have been effective in the not too distant past, and i thought wainwright was completely cooked several years before he retired, and he ended up wiggling his way out of a ton of jams almost to the end

I don’t get that Suarez deal for Seattle

Salary dump

dipoto gets antsy if he doesn't make a trade every so often

also suarez really strikes out a *lot*

He does but he’s a great third baseman and though he wasn’t great at the plate last season (in 2022 he had a wrc+ of 130) he hit 22 hrs and drove in 96 runs. That’s a lot on a team that doesn’t hit well.

Exactly. Like congrats on reducing your strikeouts, but you’ve also reduced your overall production in the process. Maybe if he’s a corner outfielder you can easily find another guy; but at 3b?

Passan (?) said that the Mariners intend to use Luis Urias there. Now look: I like Luis Urias and I liked him in his half season in Boston especially when he hit a grand slam off Gerrit Cole even though he was playing through injury most of the season & had terrible numbers -he was great in the WBC. But they need to replace that production and that’s not it.

Could be freeing up money for a splash they intend to make in free agency?

I wish that was true. :( if it happens I’ll be delighted but…

What!

Sonny Gray and the Cardinals are expected to finalize a deal today, via league sources

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 27, 2023

3/$75m for Sonny Gray. The stove is lukewarm

Gibby!

https://nypost.com/2023/11/22/sports/mets-hiring-ex-blue-jays-manager-john-gibbons-as-bench-coach/

You can pretty much pencil them in for the World Series.

Sonny Gray has been surprisingly good and durable for nearly his entire career, that's a good pickup for just a three year investment.

I guess the Cards are looking to go worst to first in 2024, and why not, the division is winnable.

Definitely a good pitcher. When I saw he finished second in the Cy Young vote, I didn't think to look at his record. But we're truly deep in the new era when a guy who goes 8-8 can finish that high, even minus the dominance of a deGrom or King Felix, with the voters looking past the W/L to accurately assess his true value.

gray is a good signing but i'm not really convinced that gray + gibson + lynn is going to completely solve their rotation problems from last season (not to mention their offensive issues). i doubt they'll come in last in the division again but they don't seem considerably better than the cubs/brewers/reds at this point (sorry pirates).

feels like the exact same kinda mid market 3rd-ish starter type deal they've already failed on a few times w/ mike leake & steven matz. but i guess gray is just better. probably...

Gray is def better than that at his best, but he does feel like a rich hill type in some respects.

The stove is warming up

Right-hander Luis Severino and the New York Mets are finalizing a one-year, $13 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Severino, 29, will join the Mets and a rotation in significant need of help after spending his eight-year career with the New York Yankees.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 29, 2023

feels like a pretty decent deal. lots of upside

this rumoured deal between the brewers and Jackson Chourio are crazy. 8 years/$80M (and options) for a guy who's never seen the majors!

Why would you not do this? Very good chance the extension costs a lot more if they do it two years from now, and if it doesn't work, it's... $10m a year? That's what you pay for a 3rd starter these days. What would you rather have for the next eight years, Aaron Nola starting from age 30 or two Jackson Chourios starting now?

The White Sox did a similar deal for Luis Robert, who is supposedly the only guy they want to rebuild around

Ya, fair enough.

Why would you not do this? Very good chance the extension costs a lot more if they do it two years from now, and if it doesn't work, it's... $10m a year? That's what you pay for a 3rd starter these days. What would you rather have for the next eight years, Aaron Nola starting from age 30 or two Jackson Chourios starting now?

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Thursday, November 30, 2023 11:56 AM (two hours ago)

exactly. the downside of 10/80 is pretty minimal compared to the upside of him becoming julio rodriguez and commanding 12/210, which itself is still a massive discount

I always love deals like that, I think they're so much more unquestionably smart than similar length deals at three times the price for 29 or 30 year olds.

I mean the latter point is kind of obvious I suppose...

What the fuck!!!

Braves acquire Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales from Mariners for young righties Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips, via @RyanDivish Mariners shed more salary in trade. Presumably loading up to add a big stick or two.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 4, 2023

the classic sam miller 'love this trade for the rays! who'd they get' tweet is being pre-empted by atlanta

(and/or whomever jerry dipoto trades with)

I can only wonder if they are clearing payroll space for a big bat but it’s the Mariners

Ohtani met with Blue Jays management at the team's spring training complex in Florida.

I am still skeptical that anything will come out of this, but it is interesting.

i guess roberts spilled the beans Ohtani had met with the dodgers before that as well.
literally everyday i have at least two friends checking in with me about this "Ohtani guy"

so this mariners deal

marco gonzales is bad, and they got out of spending $12m on him
kelenic (still possibly not-terrible) and white (terrible) are pre-arb

jackson kowar is 27 and has never been good
cole phillips is a high school pitcher who, at 20, has yet to pitch professionally

i don't think saving $12m suddenly means they can splash out on ohtani? phillips is a stab in the dark. and for whatever one thinks of kelenic, he put up 2 bwar as a 24yo this past season, which is infinitely more than everyone else in this trade combined

i rate this trade: ffs

SF to Tokyo is 11hours there, 9.5 back. It's an absolute grind even in biz/1st.
Seattle & LA (and SD lol) are a little longer but all within the realm of "geographical proximity".

ATL/NYC/BOS/PHI are more 14+/12+, bordering on soultheft.

I take that back about PHI, there's no direct flights which I think would be a dealbreaker at close to 18-20h per leg.

*huge caveat: assuming Shohei flies commercial.

He’ll be able to buy his own airline soon enough.

don't think the flight time matters -- it's not like he's not going to be an all-star, he's stuck here all summer

what *might* matter is how time zones and television play out in japan?

steve shasta: bring the knowledge

it's not so much him, it's his lifeline (family, friends, colleagues, seniors/juniors, medical staff, cultural staff, etc.)

east coast daygames are dreadful (usually starting ~midnight) but all night games line up with the workday with west coast night games ending around 4pm.

lol verdugo to the yankees

i want him to refuse to shave

I feel like the autonomy really matters for Ohtani; you see it on this tour now. Literally the only reason I thought he might not sign with the Dodgers is because they’d want him to do things off the field. Buster Olney posted that there was a chance he could go back to the Angels, which would undoubtedly pay a ton of money for him to make them money, and to never do media for months if he doesn’t feel like it. But ultimately I still think he’s a Dodger for a million reasons, I think that would be the only sticking point.

so this mariners deal

marco gonzales is bad, and they got out of spending $12m on him
kelenic (still possibly not-terrible) and white (terrible) are pre-arb

jackson kowar is 27 and has never been good
cole phillips is a high school pitcher who, at 20, has yet to pitch professionally

i don't think saving $12m suddenly means they can splash out on ohtani? phillips is a stab in the dark. and for whatever one thinks of kelenic, he put up 2 bwar as a 24yo this past season, which is infinitely more than everyone else in this trade combined

i rate this trade: ffs

classic bucco

i want him to refuse to shave

Welcome to the Bronx, Alex Verdugo 💪#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/crFSLHmfvs

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) December 6, 2023