Bill James Interview

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed
Not all messages are displayed: show all messages (44 of them)

Yeah, it's the polling that's the problem. (Admit to willfully misreading the headline.)

Pean-Juc Leeecard (Leee), Saturday, 12 November 2016 03:11 (seven years ago) link

The two ideas are joined together in the URL, not in the piece. He's talking about why he thinks the polling was so off from a data-guy's viewpoint--not that it had anything to do with the result. I don't know anything about polling models, but I found his remedy interesting (also fits with the way he approaches baseball stats, which is basically not to decide x and y are irrelevant and discard them):

Pollsters say there is a right method, but there is not. Pollsters say you call people on the phone so you know who you're talking to. You know whether they're likely to vote or not. You know whether they voted last time. You know whether they're registered Republican or Democrat because you have the voter list.

Junk it. It doesn't work. Deal with people you don't know. Use 25 different models. Go to a shopping mall and set up a booth where you hand out candy bars to anybody who'll fill out a poll for you. Walk down the street and stop every seventh person you see and ask. Put up buckets with pictures of Trump and Hillary and ask random people to drop a quarter in one or the other and count them up. Do it a hundred different ways and see if you can figure out 900 more. Then you get a broader understanding rather than a narrow understanding.

clemenza, Saturday, 12 November 2016 04:40 (seven years ago) link


You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.