In the Unlikely Event Drew Hutchison Posts a Sub-5.00 ERA, How Will You React? (Toronto Blue Jays 2016)

Pretty funny listening to Zaun on McCown's show today. As McCowan walked him through the whole sequence of events, he had a whole litany of this-should've-happeneds and that-shouldn't-have-happeneds according to Gregg Zaun's Book of How the Game's Supposed to Be Played. He's like Kramer on Seinfeld with the velvet scrunchie: "You've got really specific tastes." (Almost felt sorry for the Raptors today; the brawl seemed to be the bigger story, at least on the radio.)

what the heck is going on?

I'm going to guess that Shapiro might be the kind of guy to dismantle this team quickly. Not based on his own history, which I don't know, but on the fact that it's still basically Anthopoulos's team and he'd be happy to move past that.

I was one of those people who 48 hours ago thought that the big brawl would wake them up.

and the Jays tanking this year would give him the excuse he would need.

reminder that jays were < .500 until august last year

Back to back 13 run blowups look bad, but they ended a streak of 18 straight games with six or more innings pitched by the starters. We would have killed to have that level of pitching last year. We need a couple of bats to wake up and for the bullpen to wake up and realize it isn't spring training. The foundation to win is still there, there's no need to tear anything down. Yet.

I don't think the team should be dismantled--combine the starting pitching from April with something close to last year's offense and you're all set--just that I think Shapiro, as Thermo says, will jump on any excuse he has to do so. The other thing I expect to happen soon is for the fans to focus their ire on Shapiro. The Raptors have been a diversion thus far; when they're out, all the rancor from last November will return.

btw there was a sabermetric study of the 'wakeup' power of brawls. no correlation found.

i wasn't really saying he'd jump at any excuse to dismantle the team. i don't think there was ever a full dismantling in Cleveland. i was just saying *if* that's what he wanted to do, another month or two like this and he'll have the excuse he needs.

Bautista leading off

this is getting surreal.

Losing on a late inning comeback by the Twins might be rock bottom. Happ took a one hitter in the eighth and blew the lead, although he left with the game tied and the bullpen blew the game open as usual.

R Martin 2B

Kinda nuts how awful the offense is this year

Perfect timing--game was out of reach when I was at the library, checked in when I got home, tuned in for the last two AB.

Reminiscent of the 11-10 comeback against the Red Sox in 1989.

That's quite the wayback journey!
Last two games have both been crazy. Devin Travis is good luck I guess!

and a sweep of the Yankees! things have been looking better recently. Travis is looking p good since coming back, Martin's bat has come back to life and Saunders is killing it!

And now we get to go to Fenway! And that's not good!

This would be a good time to make our move in the standings. The team is playing well, we face Boston and Baltimore next, enough fiddling around near .500, it's time to contend.

Bizarre: for the second consecutive start, Dickey heads into the 6th inning against the Red Sox with a messy no-hitter and a two-run lead. Last time, he got knocked out in the 6th; sure enough, Ortiz leads off the 6th tonight with a double.

muni is 35 today

Nerve-wracking: Osuna was one ball away from loading the bases and having to face Ortiz in the bottom of the ninth up three runs. (Stuck out Bogarts on a full count.) With two doubles, Ortiz has 42 XBH in 49 games.

Gibbons has a knack for leaving his starters in the game one inning too many.

I can understand allowing Sanchez to face Iglesias, but not the top of the order/Kinsler for the fourth time.

last night was a tough one. real waste of a great pitching performance.

hard to be too mad about leaving sanchez out there when the real problem was that they stranded something like 11, and failed to capitalize on a basically awful blooper-reel performance from bobby parnell in the 9th, and 9 walks from the tigers pitchers in the game

When Edwin's locked in, I'm not sure there's a scarier hitter in baseball.

yup. i've very much been enjoying Saunders season so far as well!

I didn't catch it exactly, but Encarnacion has the most multi-homer games in baseball (I think--maybe just the A.L.) since 2012 (I think--maybe more recent).

For such a streaky hitter, he's really consistent year over year. Since 2012, his HR have ranged from 34-42, RBI from 98 to 111, BA .258-280, SLG .534-.557, OPS .901-.941. Joe Carter wasn't the hitter than Encarnacion is, but he had the same pattern: mercurial during the season, metronomic from one season to the next.

When we're in complete meltdown, I'm not sure there's a scarier bullpen in baseball.

(But we hung on.)

In the past three weeks, we swept the Yankees in a three game series, took three of four from the Orioles, and five of six from the Red Sox. The offense is respectable again and still improving, but good god our bullpen can't get much more fugly.

the bullpen is terrifying. watched "blue jays in 30" yesterday and ive never been tenser watching baseball highlights, was pretty much convinced the orioles were going to get a walkoff run (i didn't know the score while watching it)

Off the bat, I thought for sure Alvarez's long fly in the 9th was a home run--great catch by Carrera.

Blue Jays gonna beat the Phillies 30-0 today.

my money would be on a 1-0 loss in the 10th.

Recommended reading:

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/14/one-at-bat-koji-uehara-vs-devon-travis/

currently Estrada is on pace to have the lowest single season BABAIP in baseball history...
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1885&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,a

his .216 last year is good for #16 on the list – so this can't just al be luck. either way this just blew my mind.

I hope so...my understanding of BABIP is that that's exactly what it is, luck, and he's due for some trouble ahead. I don't know. Maddux must have had some impressive seasons, but he did log more strikeouts than I think people remember--just under 7 per nine from '92 to '98. But I'm with you; I would think location and ability to change speeds has to have something to do with how many hits a pitcher with modest strikeout totals gives up.

BABIP isn't just luck, but it is mainly luck, especially for pitchers. regression to the mean to be expected before long.

e5 has been on fire

Maaaaaan did I pick a good day to accidentally not start Nola in out FBB league.

(xpost) Last 6 games, including tonight (so far): 6 HR, 14 RBI, 1.455 SLG.

Look out for the wall, Jose! Here comes the wall! Look out! The WALL! LOOK out! Sh

How hot is Donaldson? I don't think I've ever seen this before. He walked and hit a home run tonight, which gave him nine straight PA reaching base. Comes up with a couple of guys on, two out, falls behind in the count 0-2. Edwin's on deck. He checks the next swing, and the ball clearly hits his hand--he should be headed to first. Umpire misses it, Gibbons starts to leave the dugout, Donaldson waves him back--basically, "I want to hit." Next pitch, hits a triple past the center fielder.

Even last year I don't think they had a week on offense like this. I think this is the fifth game of 10+ runs scored for the week. It's 11-2 Jays in the 4th vs Baltimore and Saunders has a pair of three run homers.

Three for Metal Mike!

One more AB for sure.

Saunders bringing me much joy.