2014-15 Hall of Fame elections

Conversely (from Posnanski):

Edgar Martinez (22-27%): 27.0%
— Pedro Martinez called Martinez the toughest hitter he ever faced. Facts do not back this up; Edgar hit .120 with 0 homers, 0 RBIs and 11 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances against Pedro. But it was a nice thing for Pedro to say.

just saw someone on facebook super indignant that martinez only got 27 percent. lollllllllll at that stat

For those who've been bothered by the logjam: it's clearing. As Omar's post above indicates, there is lots of room for movement on the next three or four ballots.

Next year: Griffey the only automatic debut. (Probably the only debut period to go in, unless Edmonds or Wagner does way down the road.) Leaving an easy path for Piazza, maybe Raines, hopefully Bagwell.

2017: Vlad and I-Rod, although the latter will probably contend with Bagwell/Piazza-like suspicion initially. So if it's just Guerrero, maybe a couple more spots. (I'm assuming Manny is persona non grata).

2018: Chipper and Thome. One or two spots open.

2019: Not up on Baseball Reference, so I'm not sure--just Rivera comes to mind.

2020: Writers will only be allowed to vote for Jeter this year. Skip to 2021.

Anyway, no foreseeable starting pitchers. Schilling and Mussina have lots of room, especially if, as was true this year, four in a year is a possibility.

Is Vlad really a shoe-in? I don't quake much sense. Gotta think I-Rod has seem issue Piazza, Bagwell, et al do.

Lol quake you.

forgot hoffman next year

thx for the Bullock story, jings

Neyer looks at the starting pitcher forecast:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/baseball-hall-fame-starting-pitchers-mike-mussina-curt-schilling-andy-pettitte-010615

Yeah, missed Hoffman. I'm sure he'll make it at some point, but I don't think right away. (Maybe even after Rivera.) I actually don't think Guerrero's a shoo-in, at least not first ballot. The out-and-out fan part of me wants him to be.

the current bunch of SPs sorted by WAR doesn't reveal a lot of HOF probables or even remote possibles. i count two definites and about ten other longshots.

Mark Buehrle (15, 35) 58.2
Tim Hudson (16, 38) 56.9
CC Sabathia (14, 33) 53.9
Felix Hernandez (10, 28) 45.4
Bartolo Colon (17, 41) 45.1
Cliff Lee (13, 35) 43.3
Justin Verlander (10, 31) 41.7
Cole Hamels (9, 30) 40.4
Clayton Kershaw (7, 26) 39.7
Zack Greinke (11, 30) 39.4
Jake Peavy (13, 33) 37.2
Jered Weaver (9, 31) 36.4
Jon Lester (9, 30) 32.6
Adam Wainwright (9, 32) 32.5
Matt Cain (10, 29) 32.4
Dan Haren (12, 33) 30.6
John Lackey (12, 35) 28.7
Bronson Arroyo (15, 37) 27.2
A.J. Burnett (16, 37) 27.1
James Shields (9, 32) 26.7
Joe Nathan (14, 39) 26.1
Max Scherzer (7, 29) 24.0
Josh Johnson (9, 30) 23.8
Anibal Sanchez (9, 30) 23.6
David Price (7, 28) 23.2
Chris Sale (5, 25) 22.9
Aaron Harang (13, 36) 22.8
Tim Lincecum (8, 30) 22.6
Jonathan Papelbon (10, 33) 22.2
Francisco Rodriguez (13, 32) 22.2
Johnny Cueto (7, 28) 21.9
Kyle Lohse (14, 35) 21.9
John Danks (8, 29) 21.7
Hiroki Kuroda (7, 39) 21.6
Randy Wolf (15, 37) 20.2

distant longshots or too young to call:

Mark Buehrle (15, 35) 58.2
Tim Hudson (16, 38) 56.9
CC Sabathia (14, 33) 53.9
Cliff Lee (13, 35) 43.3
Justin Verlander (10, 31) 41.7
Cole Hamels (9, 30) 40.4
Adam Wainwright (9, 32) 32.5
Max Scherzer (7, 29) 24.0
David Price (7, 28) 23.2
Chris Sale (5, 25) 22.9
Johnny Cueto (7, 28) 21.9

I'm still relatively optimistic about Verlander, although if there's an ongoing health issue, forget it. Sale's off to a great start. And Kimbrel might be the one reliever who's viewed differently.

Mark Buehrle is not getting into the Hall of Fame, but that dude is a pitching machine. You just wind him up and out comes 200 innings.

I think HOF voters will reframe what is considered HOF worthy and take into account the changes that happened in the last few years when it comes to pitching.

CC Sabathia was considered a lock until winter 2013 I'm pretty sure.

Disappointed to see Delgado not even last a second year. He was never going to make it, and (if I'm honest) didn't deserve to, so he only would have cluttered up the ballot. But he was in the running for greatest Jay ever, and judged solely by his actual time in Toronto, probably up at the top with Steib and Halladay.

Yeah this was disappointing. I'm not sure I see the difference between Delgado and Orlando Cepeda (who is in the HOF). By the standards of the HOF, he had a decent case.

Cepeda was a HOF'er through age 26; pretty questionable after that. From what I remember, his reputation rested heavily on perceived leadership and such (he also had to get past a drug arrest, and that took a few extra years). Cepeda's ahead in WAR, largely because of his first few seasons, but Carlos's career looks more impressive to me.

Also, Veteran's Committee--looks like Cepeda maxed out at 73.5% with the writers in his last year.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hall-of-fame-2016-class-mike-piazza-barry-bonds-roger-clemens-ken-griffey-jr-ken-rosenthal-010615

rosenthal on this year's HOF: even he's bummed about tim raines missing out

Does Delgado really have a better case than Olerud or Clark who were both dropped pretty quick? Cepeda definitely fringe though....

Cepeda was a key part of 3 pennant winners in the '60s; he's 30th among first basemen measured by JAWS (Delgado 35th; only postseason was with the '06 Mets), so his eventual selection might be fringey but not that surprising. Raw hitting numbers look better on the pitchers' era curve.

If anything Olerud should've at least stuck around longer; 20th in JAWS among 1b, consecutive WS wins with the Jays.

all while playing with a skull made of meringue!

Cepeda and Tony Perez have roughly the same numbers.

I didn't bring up Perez (or Rice) because it's generally agreed that they're weak HOF'ers, by that standard, Clark, Delgado, and Olerud would all be easily deserving of induction.

not sure delgado has a real case, but yeah it seems like he should have stuck around a couple years

if we're not gonna countenance steroid users in the hall, then maybe the non-(proven)-users need some extra consideration. after all, delgado wins the 2003 al mvp and finishes second in 2000, not fourth, if we're disregarding juicers

bill madden: even though he never tested positive and didn't appear in the mitchell report, i won't vote for piazza because opposing players told me he was on steroids

cool story bro

those three are all guys who fall short imo, but it's weird clark didn't make it in some ways bc from '87-'91 he seemed like a definite HOFer. he fell off a bit and the offensive explosion of the '90s kinda overshadowed his excellent later years. also he was even more of an asshole than barry bonds.

yeah the guys who are keeping the alleged roiders outta the hall but not supporting the supposedly honorable guys who played the right way is kind of amazing to me, i'd think crime dog would be trucking along with 50% of the vote if those voters were honest about their intent.

olerud, mcgriff, delgado, none of these people is a hall of famer, come on

olerud's batting helmet belongs in the hof, but that's it

i think what he's saying (correct me if i'm wrong) is olerud, mcgriff, and delgado are only HOFers if you measure them by the perez/rice standard

rosenthal's outrage over delgado's falling off the ballot is pretty ridiculous. he's maybe the 20th best candidate on the ballot, are you really complaining that more people didnt vote for him? are YOU gonna vote for him?

at their peaks (which were brief), those guys were maaaybe HOF caliber. but they're like mattingly in that regard. except his peak was higher (albeit even briefer.)

well delgado's peak wasn't brief i guess, but his stats weren't outlandishly great by the standard of his peers except for a couple seasons.

he was only around for 14 full seasons, i think that's what has done him the most disservice.

See above. It’s mind-blowing when people say that votes for players such as Boone or Erstad indicates that the process is broken. No, it simply indicates that one or two voters chose to make a stand on behalf of a player they admired. Those voters almost certainly had empty slots on their ballots. Who exactly is getting hurt?

uh, guys like piazza and raines?

and delgado!!

the fellas

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6w6ivVCIAEIF4U.jpg:large

I don't think Delgado dropping off is cause for outrage--none of this is--I just think his career was worthy of something longer than a one-year stay on the ballot. But I'm aware of the contradiction: he only stays on the ballot if enough people vote for him, and if he's not a Hall of Famer, why vote for him (especially on an over-crowded ballot)? I guess I just want these things to magically work out.

Holy cow, Randy Johnson was tall.

yeah you can't defend players' cases based on the lesser guys in there

Perez's "value" numbers are actually a little better than I expected, as his stathead rep is that he got in solely cuz he's in the BBWAA's fave category (1B or OF with big RBI totals).

ie if Olerud had had more power with proportionally fewer hits and walks he might be in.

Holy cow, Randy Johnson was tall.

What, did you think he was called the Big Unit because he had a giant cock?

perhaps at the ceremony he will just hold Biggio aloft instead of his plaque

before I look it up i'm going to guess how many games Biggio caught in the majors. i'll say 120.

He was a catcher for a lot longer than part of a season, no??

man, 428! I had no memory that he caught for his first 4 seasons.

age 26 when he moved to 2B fulltime.

(Was kidding about Randy...)

tbf the big unit may well have had a giant unit

it would have to be in order to appear proportional. it's tough out there for big guys, i bet

nah