― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:43 (seventeen years ago) link
waht
― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:50 (seventeen years ago) link
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:55 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:55 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:58 (seventeen years ago) link
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 18:59 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:00 (seventeen years ago) link
:-(
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:02 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:03 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:04 (seventeen years ago) link
― bnw (bnw), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:26 (seventeen years ago) link
― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:45 (seventeen years ago) link
― govern yourself accordingly (dayan), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 19:57 (seventeen years ago) link
― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 20:04 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 22:22 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 22:38 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 22:41 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 23:14 (seventeen years ago) link
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 16 January 2007 23:22 (seventeen years ago) link
― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 00:02 (seventeen years ago) link
hitters, pitchers, notes
click on each tab.
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 00:14 (seventeen years ago) link
NL All-Stars:C: Brian McCann 1B: Pujols2B: Utley3B: CabreraSS: Bill HallRF: Brian GilesCF: Carlos BeltranLF: Soriano
AL All-Stars:C: Mauer1B: Teixeira2B: Cano3B: A-RodSS: JeterRF: VladCF: SizemoreLF: ManRamDH: Hafner
NL MVP: Pujols, Cabrera, WrightAL MVP: Hafner, Mauer, Ortiz
NL CY: Webb, Peavy, Pedro AL CY: Johan, Halladay, Bonderman
NL Relief: Wagner, Lidge, BroxtonAL Relief: K-Rod, Nathan, BJ Ryan
Can someone tabulate the ROYs? I'm not sure who's eligible. I know that Tim Lincecum (SF SP) and Philip Hughes (NYY SP) are projecting high.
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 01:58 (seventeen years ago) link
― bnw (bnw), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 04:05 (seventeen years ago) link
Yeah, but he's projected to hit a HR in 2007! You wouldn't want to miss this once-in-a-season event!
― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 17 January 2007 10:50 (seventeen years ago) link
5-year projected values:Barry Zito, $34.05mnAlfonso Soriano, $61.3Joe Mauer, $150.775Poo-holes, $153.6Johan Santana, $96.65A-Rod, $83.0Grady Sizemore, $118.075Barry Bonds, $10.775
― milo z (mlp), Sunday, 21 January 2007 16:46 (seventeen years ago) link
Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP
Player, Team, EqA, VORP
Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2
Do the BP people expect that this guy is going to get significant playing time a 2B this year? He is not even on the radar here in Houston. Right now Biggio start at 2B regularly until he get his 3000th hit, then, according the conventional wisdom, he'll split time there with Mark Lorretta, who the Astros signed in the offseason to be a "super-utility" guy. The other future 2B on the Astros is Chris Burke, who will be playing CF this season now that Willy T has been traded.
So why does BP figure a PECOTA for Brooks Conrad and what makes them think he'll have the 4th best season in the NL at that position?
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 9 February 2007 21:25 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 February 2007 21:48 (seventeen years ago) link
Basically I think the PECOTA projection means that if Brooks Conrad plays 2B (which he won't) and gets 516 AB (which he also won't) and hits as well as PECOTA projects he will (which given his #s in AAA isn't entirely unwarranted) he would be this valuable over the course of the year (in a league with weak 2B for the most.)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 9 February 2007 22:31 (seventeen years ago) link
― milo z (mlp), Friday, 9 February 2007 22:35 (seventeen years ago) link
-- Steve Shasta (steveshast...), January 16th, 2007 3:14 PM. (Steve Shasta)
^^^^^OTM x 10000000000000000000000^^^^
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 10 February 2007 07:58 (seventeen years ago) link
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 10 February 2007 08:00 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Saturday, 10 February 2007 08:07 (seventeen years ago) link
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=190
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Sunday, 11 February 2007 02:00 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 9 March 2007 20:31 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 23 March 2007 15:01 (seventeen years ago) link
― mattbot, Friday, 23 March 2007 15:13 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 23 March 2007 15:35 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF, Friday, 23 March 2007 17:57 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 23 March 2007 19:03 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF, Friday, 23 March 2007 22:50 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF, Friday, 23 March 2007 23:06 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 27 March 2007 15:42 (seventeen years ago) link
YSI?
― Steve Shasta, Friday, 8 February 2008 16:15 (sixteen years ago) link
:`(
― Steve Shasta, Friday, 8 February 2008 20:38 (sixteen years ago) link
"Basically 80-82 seems like the absolute worst case scenario to me."
HAHAHA!
― Alex in SF, Friday, 8 February 2008 21:52 (sixteen years ago) link
Also LOL:
Zito's ERA goin up that much is weird. -- Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, January 16, 2007 7:41 AM (1 year ago)
and some!
― Steve Shasta, Friday, 8 February 2008 21:59 (sixteen years ago) link
Joe Kennedy, Swing, TOR:
40 G, 9 GS, 4.78 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
I think it is safe to say that he will underperform his 2008 PECOTA prediction.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 11 February 2008 10:25 (sixteen years ago) link
Peavy: 212 IP, 223K, 1.13 WHIP, 2.98 ERA
Santana: 225 IP, 239K, 1.08 WHIP, 2.94 ERA
This would be a hell of a Cy Young battle -- the closest matchup in years!
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 11 February 2008 10:28 (sixteen years ago) link
Their prospects "play a lot of games."
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 21:52 (fourteen years ago) link
this is an abomination, i refuse to ask for a ysi of it again next year
― sanskrit, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:53 (fourteen years ago) link
I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.
Me too.
You don't need to subscribe for the chats (which are normally good, as long as they stick to baseball and don't sidetrack into video games or music, i.e. read Marc Normandin at your own risk), and Steven Goldman's "You Can Look It Up" column is still great (if you're really into baseball history). Speaking of history, I guess Christina Kahrl will be doing the daily analysis column now that Sheehan is gone, but I'm sort of dreading that because when it comes to baseball writing, a bit of creative liscence is definitely a good thing but I can only tolerate so many references to Austrian aristocracy of the 1840's.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 2 February 2010 13:54 (fourteen years ago) link
now that Sheehan is gone
OK, I've been busy nailing down a job this month. When did this happen?
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2010 15:04 (fourteen years ago) link
end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.
― call all destroyer, Tuesday, 2 February 2010 15:07 (fourteen years ago) link
CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...
http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm
looks mostly the same i guess
― ciderpress, Saturday, 6 February 2010 00:51 (fourteen years ago) link
I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..
― mayor jingleberries, Monday, February 1, 2010 2:17 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark
pecota's pretty bad at understanding defense and projecting rosters, which is why they couldnt anticipate (say) the mariners' run prevention being good enough to have them contending in the west
― yakko warner (cankles), Saturday, 6 February 2010 00:54 (fourteen years ago) link
strange how CHONE predicts the Giants can go from Wild Card Contenders up until the last 8 days of the season to last place in the weak NL West with essentially the same offense (if Randy Winn & Ryan Garko = Mark DeRosa & Aubrey Huff which shouldn't be too difficult to replicate) and an improving pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito + closer Wilson)...? Not saying they were fluky last year but they'll probably finish mid-pack in the NL, rather than in the bottom only 2 games ahead of the Nats/Pirates/Astros/Mets.
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 6 February 2010 01:12 (fourteen years ago) link
Ha, this has got to be Nate Silver:http://www.sporcle.com/user/nrsilver/
― Lusty Mo Frazier (jaymc), Wednesday, 24 February 2010 19:24 (fourteen years ago) link
supposedly pecota is out.. again.
supposedly it hates the shit out of my team. =( I dont subscribe so I cant see, but Im not sure I really want to.
― strongly recommend. unless you're a bitch (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:02 (thirteen years ago) link
who's your team again? (sorry)
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:08 (thirteen years ago) link
how has pecota's accuracy been for the last couple years?
― call all destroyer, Monday, 7 February 2011 21:12 (thirteen years ago) link
i remember the last time a blog did an analysis of all the stat forecast systems and PECOTA ranked below average.
― i love you but i have chosen snarkness (Steve Shasta), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:18 (thirteen years ago) link
a few years ago TSN (which is the Canadian's little espn) had done their own baseball forecasts - and i'd only looked at the J's stats but TSN was closer than PECOTA was.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:26 (thirteen years ago) link
my team is the dodgers. my purely speculative and non computer generated prediction is a team obp of .325 this year. or lower.
― strongly recommend. unless you're a bitch (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 7 February 2011 23:16 (thirteen years ago) link
I just opened PECOTA, and really don't much care about individual player projections.
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 06:55 (thirteen years ago) link
Not really sure why someone who wasn't a GM or fantasy ballplayer would.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 15:38 (thirteen years ago) link
I'm intrigued by the depth charts, though, which aren't out til next week.
― kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 15:42 (thirteen years ago) link
When do the Fangraphs projections come out?
― i love you but i have chosen snarkness (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 18:04 (thirteen years ago) link
those fan projections are dogshit, they're being trolled this year pretty hard. heyward looks to be a top five OFer and tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee.
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-braves&tid=149282
― sanskrit, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 18:37 (thirteen years ago) link
tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee
not impossible, imho!
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 18:58 (thirteen years ago) link
ZIPS is the best one on fangraphs and it's not up there yet but i'm pretty sure they've all been calculated since they're rolling them out team by team at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/newsblog/ (ignore the top post, that's a sticky from last year that hasn't been updated)
― ciderpress, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 19:14 (thirteen years ago) link
ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877
― sanskrit, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 21:56 (thirteen years ago) link
Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).
― Mark C, Tuesday, 8 February 2011 22:42 (thirteen years ago) link
has the mets @ 80 wins!
― johnny crunch, Monday, 18 February 2013 23:55 (eleven years ago) link
noted last week
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 19 February 2013 02:06 (eleven years ago) link
behind some numbers
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673
― Pope Rusty I (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 2 March 2013 14:32 (eleven years ago) link
It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton
― images of war violence and historical smoking (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 4 February 2014 12:41 (ten years ago) link
'tis out
http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/8/14549012/dodgers-cardinals-pecota-projections
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 8 February 2017 19:42 (seven years ago) link
projects Angels at 80-82.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 7 February 2018 20:43 (six years ago) link
Steamer really doesn't like Acuña Jr.
https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=25,d
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Friday, 2 November 2018 18:09 (five years ago) link
vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge
― mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 20:15 (five years ago) link
go bucs
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 9 February 2021 17:44 (three years ago) link