pecota is trolling
― johnny crunch, Friday, 29 January 2010 01:52 (fourteen years ago) link
handmade, dogg
― Past a Diving Jeter (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, March 24, 2009 12:10 PM (10 months ago) Bookmark
lol wtf
― Goon's Anatomy (J0rdan S.), Friday, 29 January 2010 01:54 (fourteen years ago) link
wtf what?
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:29 (fourteen years ago) link
you typed "dogg"!
― Goon's Anatomy (J0rdan S.), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:35 (fourteen years ago) link
Initial thoughts:
09 World Champs NYY - PECOTA shows huge outlier for Jeter's 09, collapsing back to earth in 2010. Of the 9 Yankee starters (Gardner over Winn btw), only 1 player is projecting UNDER .355 OBP (Cano at .342) which is really scary. New acquisition DH Nick Johnson projects a team leading .420!
In fact, their starters (CC, Vazquez, AJ, Joba) all project high (25-43 VORP) and they've got Rivera so it leads me to believe that PECOTA2010's doom and gloom is all hinged on a questionable 5th starter and mediocre bullpen (all of which can be solved by the all-star break in typical NYY style?)...
Or is it aging defense? I don't get it...
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:43 (fourteen years ago) link
no it can't be defense, only Jeter (-11) and Posada (-4) are rated below league average.
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Friday, 29 January 2010 06:48 (fourteen years ago) link
93 wins, though.
― Andy K, Friday, 29 January 2010 12:13 (fourteen years ago) link
yeah rlly, 92-98 wins for all three teams is not a shocking call. Injuries and other unforeseeables will determine the order.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 January 2010 12:17 (fourteen years ago) link
J, I am familiar w/ early 21st century vernacular.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 January 2010 14:25 (fourteen years ago) link
rlyw described pecota as assuming that the bullpen would be terrible and the nyy wouldnt do anything to fix it and so their 93 wins proj was basically bullshit. they also said one of their multipliers was inexplicably high compared to previous years and that = bullshit
― Astronaut Mike Dexter (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 29 January 2010 16:14 (fourteen years ago) link
"The CAIRO IP are based on the last set of Diamond Mind simulations I ran, averaged over 100 seasons so they don't line up with what the CAIRO spreadsheet, and they need to be tweaked further. I didn't realize Burnett was only pitching 167 innings, for example. However, if you look at where things differ, it's primarily with Burnett and Gaudin in terms of rate of performance, and then in how many innings they're allocating to people like Boone Logan and Jonathan Albaladejo.
Digging a little deeper into what these numbers say, PECOTA isn't displaying total runs allowed so I divided the total 789 runs allowed in their standings by the 673 projected earned runs on the team depth chart to reverse engineer it. Right off the bat this looks off, because the ratio is 1.172. The typical ratio is generally 1.08. In fact, this is really, really, really screwed up. Since 1946, there have been 1507 team seasons. I'm using that cutoff to remove the small glove/ deadball era and the WWII era where you had players who didn't belong in the majors to get closer to the modern error rate. In those 1507 seasons, there have been 59 teams that had a RA/ER ratio that high or worse. So they're either predicting the 2010 Yankees to allow unearned runs at a rate that has happened at a rate of 0.03915063 in the MLB team seasons since 1946, or they screwed something up.
They have some smart guys over there, so my guess is it's the latter. As someone who screws up his spreadsheets constantly, I can understand that. I left a comment over there asking for them to elaborate. So don't worry about these yet."
― Astronaut Mike Dexter (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 29 January 2010 16:16 (fourteen years ago) link
Neyer is going over the CAIRO projs (which I'd never heard of):
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 January 2010 20:32 (fourteen years ago) link
"I'm waiting to be convinced. BP didn't have a good 2009, and there are some squirrelly things people have noticed about the 2010 numbers. "
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 30 January 2010 04:39 (fourteen years ago) link
Steven Strasburg: 1.40 WHIP, 4.07 ERAMatt Wieters: .289/.363/.464
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 30 January 2010 04:50 (fourteen years ago) link
Best Defenders by Position by League:1B: Pujols, David Ortiz (lol wut!!!)2B: Utley, Mark Ellis3B: Rolen, LongoriaC: Yadier, DionerCF: Carlos Gomez, Franklin GutierrezLF: Nyjer Morgan, CrawfordRF: Jayson Werth, IchiroSS: Tulo, Vizquel
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 30 January 2010 04:55 (fourteen years ago) link
Worst Defenders by Position by League:1B: Fielder, Miguel Cabrera2B: Luis Castillo, Alberto Callaspo (?KC)3B: Mat Gamel (?MIL), Edwin EncarnacionC: John Baker (?FLO), Josh BardCF: Nate McClouth, Torii HunterLF: Jason Bay, Travis Snider (?TOR)RF: Hawpe, AbreuSS: Yuniesky, Jeter
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 30 January 2010 05:00 (fourteen years ago) link
Eric Seidman, BP:
Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.
One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.
Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).
These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 31 January 2010 03:34 (fourteen years ago) link
and they're unmessed:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 31 January 2010 03:41 (fourteen years ago) link
angels last in the west? umm
― javier cora (ramon cora), Sunday, 31 January 2010 04:47 (fourteen years ago) link
C: John Baker (?FLO)
he's an original moneyballer
― Goon's Anatomy (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 31 January 2010 04:48 (fourteen years ago) link
PECOTA predicts that 22/30 teams will finish within five games of .500 = PECOTA thinks MLB is the NFL.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 31 January 2010 15:54 (fourteen years ago) link
There was a season recently where this just about happened... or, I think, everyone was between .400 and .600.
Obviously PECOTA not apt to predict flameouts and all-goes-right years.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 31 January 2010 16:04 (fourteen years ago) link
Yeah, but this is a lot more extreme -- they're predicting that more than 70% of MLB teams will finish between .470 and .530!
Not predicting flameouts and all-goes-right years != widespread parity in baseball
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 1 February 2010 12:39 (fourteen years ago) link
I have no idea if there's been a season where 70% of MLB teams have finished between .470 and .530... seems possible. (sounds like the entire NL East in '73)
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 14:28 (fourteen years ago) link
nats will be a .500 team? really pecota?
― call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 14:38 (fourteen years ago) link
Esp. surprising given Strasburg's rather conservative estimates.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 1 February 2010 16:49 (fourteen years ago) link
I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..
― mayor jingleberries, Monday, 1 February 2010 19:17 (fourteen years ago) link
Good point, the only Dodger who showing an above average defensive rating is Martin. NB: Not sure how wonx0red my PECOTA data is, I got it before they admitted it was janky.
― ┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐ (Steve Shasta), Monday, 1 February 2010 19:39 (fourteen years ago) link
Got revised again. Dodgers still have absurdly low runs allowed totals. But slip to 3rd in the NL West behind AZ and Colorado.
― mayor jingleberries, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:11 (fourteen years ago) link
They really have to learn not to jump the gun trying to please the panting anticipation of roto maniacs.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:17 (fourteen years ago) link
seriously. they look like idiots.
― call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:20 (fourteen years ago) link
I don't look at that stuff in any depth til the last week before the season.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:22 (fourteen years ago) link
yeah it's crazy to put it out so early given that rosters aren't even really set yet. who cares? but between this and the infamous no index book they've been sort of lame recently.
― call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:26 (fourteen years ago) link
Kahrl boasted last week that the new annual will have an index.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:33 (fourteen years ago) link
i saw that; v. nearly started my own slow clap cause that's the least the incredible feat of having an index deserves
― call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:34 (fourteen years ago) link
PECOTA is down and out
― ramon cora, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:36 (fourteen years ago) link
Is anyone other than Goldstein/Kahrl worth reading anymore? Or worth paying for the right to read (more accurately)?
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:42 (fourteen years ago) link
pretty sure i'm gonna cancel when my sub is up in may
― call all destroyer, Monday, 1 February 2010 20:45 (fourteen years ago) link
yeah, I like Perrotto's weekly reporting.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:45 (fourteen years ago) link
and the Laurila interviews.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 20:46 (fourteen years ago) link
yeah my subscription's up today and i don't think i'll be renewing, i basically only read goldstein at this point, plus the chats (are those subscription only?)
i can get by fine with chone for my projections, in fact i think it's been better than pecota the past couple years!
― ciderpress, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:16 (fourteen years ago) link
though admittedly less in-depth
― ciderpress, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:19 (fourteen years ago) link
I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 21:26 (fourteen years ago) link
maybe if your team had a real farm system...
― ciderpress, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:44 (fourteen years ago) link
Their prospects "play a lot of games."
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Monday, 1 February 2010 21:52 (fourteen years ago) link
this is an abomination, i refuse to ask for a ysi of it again next year
― sanskrit, Monday, 1 February 2010 21:53 (fourteen years ago) link
Me too.
You don't need to subscribe for the chats (which are normally good, as long as they stick to baseball and don't sidetrack into video games or music, i.e. read Marc Normandin at your own risk), and Steven Goldman's "You Can Look It Up" column is still great (if you're really into baseball history). Speaking of history, I guess Christina Kahrl will be doing the daily analysis column now that Sheehan is gone, but I'm sort of dreading that because when it comes to baseball writing, a bit of creative liscence is definitely a good thing but I can only tolerate so many references to Austrian aristocracy of the 1840's.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 2 February 2010 13:54 (fourteen years ago) link
now that Sheehan is gone
OK, I've been busy nailing down a job this month. When did this happen?
― Rage, Resentment, Spleen (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2010 15:04 (fourteen years ago) link
end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.
― call all destroyer, Tuesday, 2 February 2010 15:07 (fourteen years ago) link
CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...
http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm
looks mostly the same i guess
― ciderpress, Saturday, 6 February 2010 00:51 (fourteen years ago) link