I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

I mean good news is good news and bad news is bad news but the type of people who can tell you what a job report means also are not undecided voters in Ohio. I mean maybe like 3 of them or something. but just think back to the town hall meeting and ask yourself if those people know what the last jobs report number was.xp

― iatee, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 6:29 PM (25 minutes ago)

actually no news is good news

i just voted-- maybe i shoulda waited for the jobs report.

This is great (via Salon):

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Chris-Christie-Welcomes-President-to-the-Post-Obama-Era

it's been almost three weeks since Romney gave an interview and more than a month since he answered a single question from the reporters that travel with him. He can't, obviously. He can't answer questions about his auto industry claims and now he can't answer about FEMA either.

is this getting traction in the MSM/ cable news? seems like a p big deal to me if Romney won't answer questions from the reporters traveling with him

― it's smdh time in America (will), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (4 hours ago)

Watched some of the network news yesterday and it was mostly storm coverage, so no mention of the fact that he was asked 11 times if he would still de-fund FEMA and ignored it each time. I'm guessing the Biden challenge on the auto industry claims might make the news tonight.

car companies themselves pushing back seems p noteworthy

This is great (via Salon):

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Chris-Christie-Welcomes-President-to-the-Post-Obama-Era

― clemenza, mercredi 31 octobre 2012 23:44 (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

someone please tell me this bullfeces

Romney’s lead in the national polls may appear small, but it is likely much more significant, since the electorate that shows up on Tuesday will include proportionally fewer Democrats than most polls have assumed thus far.

Conservatives are beginning to understand that, though few will say so openly, for fear of encouraging complacency among voters, or tempting superstition.

xp you gotta be kidding me?

polls dont assume a gop/dem split they just call people

I love the "You shouldn't put too much stock in their predictions...because I HAVE A PREDICTION TOO!" rhetorical style that is so popular in election season

Here's the key paragraph from the Christie piece:

But the truth about Christie’s outreach to Obama is blindingly obvious: Mitt Romney is now running away with this election, freeing Christie to praise the president without fear that doing so will tip the scales. (Followed by Mordy's quote.)

will include proportionally fewer Democrats than most polls have assumed thus far.

Mitt Romney is now running away with this election

I read these sorts of pronouncement and I begin to fear that the invisible voters may steal this election, yet.

"Christie... will tip the scales."

I think there's a chance Obama will drop Biden for Christie over the weekend.

Conservatives are beginning to understand that, though few will say so openly

lolllllllllllll

aahahahahah "running away" is just pure candyland stuff, I would buy "race has tightened" and, much more plausibly "race has tightened but not enough to matter and the biggest tightening has been specifically in states where it doesn't matter" but "running away with the election," come on, dude needs to be a man and post some links or, etc

romney has literally been losing this election absolutely the entire time

obama to hire Christie as whitehouse bipartisan carer in chief and giver of worlds best hugs

how are these people going to feel if/when obama wins? are they just going to straight up have psychotic breaks?

conspiracyville

It's going to be really ugly. If you dig into conservativeland comment threads there's essentially nobody who believes the election is even competitive. They're not going to believe an Obama victory is remotely legitimate. It'll be a fun four years!

i'm probably one of the young one here and i'm wondering: was the level of anomosity between republicans and democrats that high before?

they thought bill clinton murdered dudes over small time land deals

to enter a conspiracyville of my own i wonder to what extent some of these punditsorwhatever actually believe that romney is "running away w the race" and to what extent if any they are consciously preparing to radicalize people.

The illegitimacy of Obama's presidency is manifest to far right reactionaries because how could a traitor who is destroying the republic be legitimate? They know he is a traitor who is destroying the republic because anyone who disagrees with them is a traitor who is destroying the republic. And he's black.

Conspiracy aside, the Christie thing is, for at least a day, just one big distraction for Romney in terms of media coverage. They've been going on about it all night on CNN.

Mind you, they'd probably be on Romney over the FEMA thing otherwise, so maybe it's not so bad.

i'm probably one of the young one here and i'm wondering: was the level of anomosity between republicans and democrats that high before?

No, but largely because the current shitstorm is more about Republican animosity towards our uppity Democratic president.

I think you can say a certain % of this is race related but it really is easy to forget to what extent republicans hated bill clinton

And what makes it worse for GOP diehards is that Bill gets to be all elder statesman/campaign rallier/etc now, maintaining an actual wide popularity. And in contrast W is... *shrug*

I mean, can you imagine W being back in 2016 in that capacity? Or later? Fuck no.

ISTR Clinton getting all kinds of partisan abuse for apparently being a cracker with extravagant appetites, Lady Macbeth for a wife and a Bingo lady for a mother.

it's easier to like a guy when his political career is over cf also reagan + democratic party

they don't have to like him, they just don't benefit anymore from demonizing him (reagan, clinton)

Van: let's just say that the 2004 campaign was mildly bitter.

Demonizing Dubya should pay dividends for at least as long as it has for Jimmy Carter, if there is justice in this world.

Christie - "one big distraction."

I am personally disappointed by obama's unwillingness to constantly demonize and blame dubya for the country's problems

hopefully in ~30 years the democratic party will not be trying tie the republican presidential candidate to GWB

hopefully in 30 years the DEMOCRAT Party will tie the GOP prez candidate to Reagan.

Going back upthread to the whole "running away with the election" doohickey, it's just circular bias. These righties insist the data shows Romney's winning. When he loses (which he will), they will say obviously there was fraud because the data showed he was way ahead. When you point out that it did not they will merely point to Rasmussen which was oh so amazing in 2008 and all the others are biased. It's best to not argue with people who were likely conceived at an L.A. Guns concert.

On the topic of Rasmussen, their slanted polling is getting ridiculous. They are currently the ONLY State Poll that shows Romney ahead in Ohio...and by TWO PERCENT. Every other poll has Obama ahead by at least two (except one newspaper, that had it tied). They also are (according to the Infamous dickbiscuits at Breitbart.com) now predicting an Electoral victory for Romney, making them the only aggregate site to do so. Bring this up, and they will claim it is ALL THE OTHER POLLS that are biased. Tell them it is Rasmussen that is proven to be right-leaning, and they will deny it, even if you bring up the fact that Scott Rasmussen wrote for Conservative rag World Net Daily in the early 2000s (Seriously, Nate Silver gets shit for the fact that he's an Obama supporter that aggregates poll data that favors Obama, but Rasmussen gets nothing for being a GUY WHO WROTE CONSERVATIVE ARTICLES AND PUBLISHING POLLS???!!!)

so yeah...let themselves Rage themselves out on Election Day, enjoy it as Schadenfreude. I may create a Schadenfreude twitter account and Twitter all the Butthurt live.

nice turn of phrase

East side,
West side
Me and Mamie O'Rourke
Tweeted the butt-hurt li-ive
On the sidewalks of New York

@GovChristie I want to thank the President personally for all his assistance as w recover from the storm.

“@GovChristie: I have confidence that we will have support from the President and federal authorities. #Sandy”

“@GovChristie: I don't give a damn about Election Day after what has happened here. I am worried about the people of New Jersey. #Sandy”

“@GovChristie: On conf call with POTUS discussing post-Sandy cleanup efforts in partnership with the feds. He is instructing Gov't to lean forward to help.”

“@GovChristie: Here with President Obama at the Brigantine shelter. http://t.co/pkei2eJA”

“@whitehouse: Photo: On Marine One, President Obama & @GovChristie survey the damage done by Hurricane #Sandy along New Jersey coast: http://t.co/l3nIu7ht”

“@GovChristie: President Obama made it clear to me today that it is his top priority to help New Jersey get back to normal. As it is mine.”

“@GovChristie: The President came to New Jersey today to offer his help and I accept that help and appreciate his good will.”

“@GovChristie: When it comes to getting things done, I don't care what party someone is in. The responsibility I have is much bigger than politics.”

“@GovChristie: Pictures from my tour of hurricane damage with President Obama today. #Sandy http://t.co/QN8VKMbL”

christie, sweaty, passionate

is it really that hard to understand what "70% chance of winning" means? do we as adults really need (flawed) baseball and d&d comparisons to make this more intuitive?

― congratulations (n/a), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 8:28 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it's actually not intuitive at all! people don't naturally think in probabilities

― iatee, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 8:30 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

for 1 time events, this is otm. he publishes percentages (i.e. "frequentist" statistics) for the betting markets set, but really he's a guy who knows better, and he should be publishing posterior distributions and talking in bayesian language all the time.

avb out

speaking of betting markets how much $ have you made on my intrade advice caek??

i am currently up about $28. looks like i sold romney at pretty much the exact top of his market.

It's best to not argue with people who were likely conceived at an L.A. Guns concert.

simultaneous lol & middle finger