a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Here it is, pretty sure you can view this outside the UK. Sue Lloyd-Roberts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9617507.stm

Syria is causing problems in Lebanon too:

A growing number of cross-border incursions by Syrian troops into Lebanese territory has aggravated political rivalries in Lebanon between those who oppose the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and those who support it.

Since the beginning of October, Syrian soldiers have penetrated Sunni-populated areas along Lebanon’s remote and poorly marked eastern border on a number of occasions, reportedly killing and abducting several people.

Unlike Syria’s stronger neighbors – Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Israel – Lebanon has long lived under Syria’s shadow and is more vulnerable to interference as the Assad regime pursues its crackdown on the Syrian opposition, elements of which have begun to arm themselves and fight back.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1020/Syria-s-uprising-creeps-across-Lebanese-border

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/us-bahrain-usa-arms-idUSTRE79I7MI20111019

At stake is the proposed U.S. supply of 44 "Humvee" armored vehicles and several hundred TOW missiles along with associated equipment and support, worth an estimated $53 million.

You think going ahead with this sale to Bahrain might not look good? Jeez.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15365980

The BBC's UN correspondent Barbara Plett says there were no council divisions like the kind that blocked action on Syria, partly because of serious concerns about the deteriorating security situation in Yemen.

As opposed to the great security situation in Syria.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/26/us-france-syria-idUSTRE79P20320111026

Can we believe French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe that the Syrian regime will fall?

As long as Assad still has the military, and economic support from Iran, Russia and China, he can probably hang on. But I hope Juppe is right, based on whatever information he has.

i don't know whether he's right or not but it's interesting that he's saying so

Yes. The French feel emboldened by Libya maybe, but this is a different situation.

I am pleased that the Egyptians have released that Israeli American guy who was being held on farcical charges of espionage. Apparently some of the evidence against him was that he tipped heavily and spoke in a quiet voice to his girlfriend.

he was also seen consulting a Hebrew-Arabic dictionary in public, though I'm not sure that was taken as evidence that he was a spy or not.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/arabian-sights-festival-sees-more-egyptian-arab-spring-films/2011/10/27/gIQA9yq2MM_story.html?wprss=rss_local

For those in the W. DC area (and maybe the films are showing elsewhere too)

I did not make it to any of the Arabians sights movies over the weekend and some of the upcoming showings are all sold out.

Meanwhile

With an eye on the threat of a belligerent Iran, the administration is also seeking to expand military ties with the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

Great. The US wants to associate with the the Gulf Cooperation Council, best known for going into Bahrain and crushing the protests there.

x-post-- the French may feel the Syrian government is going to collapse but this Washington Post article tells an opposite story(although the reporter was on a supervised and watched visit)-

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrias-government-is-confident-but-the-country-is-polarized/2011/10/28/gIQAxgdbQM_story.html

But during a rare, authorized visit to Syria by a Western journalist, conducted under close government supervision, it became clear that not only do Assad and his allies appear to be in no imminent danger of falling but that they also feel no pressure to offer concessions to those who have been taking to the streets for months to call for radical change.

Syria agrees to Arab League peace plan (but...)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/arab-league-announces-peace-plan-for-syria/2011/11/02/gIQAKBm6fM_story.html?hpid=z3

Emergency Arab League meeting tomorrow about Syria's non-compliance with the agreement and, presumably, the increasing slaughter.

I'm just shocked that Syria did not abide by the plan!!! While some say its obvious Syria should be kicked out of the Arab League, this BBC writer thinks the League will somehow retain power over Syria if it keeps Syria. Elsewhere I read that folks want the League to have Syrian dissidents (from outside the country) represent Syria and not the Syrian government

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15703311

Arab League talking tough re Syria now--will it help or make a difference?

As usual everything is messy--Egyptian military trying to preserve their power; Yemen still waiting for Prez to leave while the poor get stuck in the middle of the government, extremists and incoming drones; and Syria possibly heading into civil war. The Bahrain situation is no better than it was either.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/world/middleeast/aliaa-magda-elmahdy-egypts-nude-blogger-stirs-partisan-waters.html

nude blogger stirs

uh oh

Heavy clashes were reported as troops and tanks were sent to vanquish rebels, and Russia indicated it would oppose any effort to have President Bashar al-Assad step down.

NY Times

Meanwhile, someone said on the Democracy Now radio show that Assad's military has 300,000 active troops with tanks etc., while the rebels have at the most 30,000 to 40,000 spread throughout the country

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/02/world/europe/soldier-says-atrocities-made-him-a-syrian-defector.html?_r=2&hpw

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/brutality-in-syria-by-davidoatkins.html

The tradition of pacifism and anti-imperialism on the Left would indicate that Syrian problems are Syrian, and that nothing should be done beyond sending sternly worded letters and maybe a few targeted sanctions. The tradition of intervention on behalf of the weak and defenseless on the Left would indicate that the world has a moral obligation something to step in.

But what would stepping in look like? Would it do more harm than good? What would be the blowback? It's hard to say here that Assad is a dictator backed by the West, as has so often been the case elsewhere. In this case, it's the Russians who have strategic resource interests in Syria and have been trying to keep Assad in power. But obviously, having America act as the world's policeman hasn't worked out so well for the last 50 years or so.

These are not easy questions; no one should pretend that they are, or that anyone has all the answers. But it's hard to obsess over minor issues in the tax code or reproductive access domestically, while shrugging in helpless resignation over what's happening in Syria right now.

http://www.juancole.com/2012/01/egyptian-crowds-in-tahrir-insist-the-revolution-will-continue.html

news of urban shelling in Syria:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16883911

It's crystal clear that Assad doesn't give a shit. He's murdering his own people as a "fuck you" to the world. Sickening.

finally on the NYT homepage. Deaths reportedly up to 260.

And Russia and China do not care. Thanks a lot. So the US is gonna try the below, while I heard on the radio that Sarkozy is gonna try to talk to Putin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-pulls-diplomats-out-of-syria-as-violence-intensifies/2012/02/06/gIQAN1CxtQ_story.html?hpid=z1

sheesh have the Russians and Chinese ever met a brutal dictatorial regime they didn't like

It's not all that different than the black 'copters crowd in the US; they feel that allowing ingerence by the UN lessens national sovereignty and that it's not up to the UN to effect regime change in countries that aren't a security threat to their neighbors.

sheesh have the Russians and Chinese ever met a brutal dictatorial regime they didn't like

You're from where, sorry?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-foreign-minister-visits-syria-as-shelling-continues/2012/02/07/gIQAx438vQ_story.html?hpid=z3

You're from where, sorry?

the US has supported plenty of execrable regimes and unjustly meddled in the affairs of other countries but China and Russia are like next level when it comes to looking the other way/propping up monsters

US pays lip service to human rights, Russia and China don't even bother

There must be a LDR joke in there...

US pays lip service to human rights, Russia and China don't even bother

When there's $billions in trade and investments at stake, I think it's called "the customer is always right".

i think it's more like "you have your hemisphere, fuck off"

"you have your hemisphere, fuck off"

uh South America yo

right that's what i mean

anyway, interesting claim from a leftist/goldbug type site:

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/02/independent-report-shows-that-syrian-government-violence-has-been-exaggerated.html

"Leftist"

That blogpost doesn't address this complaint that has been circulating for awhile:

“It is perplexing that the Arab League chose the Khartoum regime's General al-Dabi to lead its team monitoring the Syria regime because of his record of turning a blind eye to human rights crimes, or worse”, said Omer Ismail, Sudan analyst for the Enough Project.

Ismail also accused Dabi of having stood witness to similar crimes in Sudan, saying, “Instead of heading a team entrusted with a probe of alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity by Syria, the general should be investigated by the ICC for evidence of similar crimes in Sudan."

Dabi, 63, is a veteran of Sudan’s military. Over the course of his lengthy career, he rose steadily through the ranks, eventually becoming President Omar al-Bashir’s head of intelligence.

http://www.france24.com/en/20111226-syria-arab-league-observers-mission-chief-sudanese-general-al-dabi-uncertain-past

yes, leftist

i'm not endorsing that claim, btw

I realize you're not endorsing it...It just does not read as that leftist to me, more libertarian or just contrarian-- with a blogroll including Drudge and Greenwald.

As I am notorious for on ilx, I'm not up for US military intervention in Syria. I am all in favor of the widest possible dissemination of the facts about Syrian government oppression, all for for international sanctions, and if the Arab League can get behind any further actions against Syria, I'm all for supporting that. If the USA can infiltrate money and expert advice to the Syrian insurgents, I'd consider that excellent, too.

But the Syrians must bear the lion's share of danger and death, if only because that will be necessary to the legitimacy of any successor regime.

right that's what i mean

I guess I'm confused as to which half of the sphere the US has.

I don't think anyone's up for military intervention in Syria, Aimless

i'm saying that the russian and chinese attitude toward the US is [what i said up there]

I'm just being a dick about the definition of hemisphere I guess

The USA only lays claim to the Northern and Western hemispheres. Australia is up for grabs.

Pretty sure we have a 'special relationship' w/Australia to rival that w/Britain