2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

did anyone ask palin about dinosaurs last night?

R2000/dKos tracking (9/18): Obama 49-43

Rasmussen tracking (9/18): tied at 48

CBS/NYT (9/12-16): Obama 48-43 (RVs)(+7 from last week, +2 from pre-conventions)
among likely voters: Obama 49-44
who do you think will win: Obama 45-38
among white women: Obama 47-45 (+21 from last week, +7 from pre-conventions)
among Clinton supporters: Obama 65-25 (70-22 LVs)
among men: McCain 48-42 (+6 from last week)
among Obama RVs: 79-18 mind made up (+3 from last week)
among McCain RVs: 81-19 mind made up (-2 from last week)
party crossover delta: McCain +4 (+3 from last week)
Obama a different kind of democrat: 47-48 (Kerry in July 2004: 30-55; Clinton in October 1994: 47-44)
McCain a different kind of Republican: 40-57 (Bush in August 2000: 35-52)
would Obama bring change: 65-29 (+13 from July)
would McCain bring change: 37-59 (+15 from July)
would McCain be Bush II-more conservative-less conservative: 46-22-26 (last week: 42-30-20; little change from August)
can you relate to Obama: 57-40
can you relate to McCain: 47-51
does Obama share America's values: 66-27
does McCain share America's values: 61-33
is Obama prepared to be President: 48-46 (+12 from last week)
is McCain prepared to be President: 71-24
Obama favorables: 45-35-19 (+3 from last week) (among independents: 41-31)
McCain favorables: 44-37-19 (-2 from last week) (among independents 43-27)
Biden favorables: 38-17-45 (+6 from last week) (among Clinton supporters: 63-3-34)
Palin favorables: 40-30-30 (-12 from last week) (among Clinton supporters: 20-48-33)
can relate to Biden: 43-42 (+4 from last week)
can related to Palin: 55-42 (-13 from last week)
Biden prepared to be Veep: 74-11
Palin prepared to be Veep: 42-52 (-15 from last week)
is Biden qualified to be Prez or concerned about same: 65-24
is Palin qualified to be Prez or concerned about same: 33-62

Quinnipiac (9/11-15): Obama 49-45
among independents: Obama 46-45 (-5 since before conventions)
among men: McCain 50-43 (+2 since before conventions)
among women: Obama 54-40 (no change)
Obama favorability: 56-33
McCain favorability: 54-34
Biden favorability: 40-23-36
Palin favorability: 40-30-28

Time national (9/11-15): among noncollege white women: McCain by 18 points

SUSA New Mexico (9/14-16): Obama 52-44
among those whose mind is made up (86%): Obama 54-45
among those who could change their mind (12%): McCain 45-40-8 other-6 undecided
among hispanics: Obama 69-28
among independents: Obama 51-42
among men: Obama 54-44
among women: Obama 51-45

SUSA Ohio (9/12-14): McCain 49-45
among those whose mind is made up (80%): Obama 49-48
among those who could change their mind (18%): McCain 55-31
among independents: McCain 45-44
among women: Obama 49-45
among those for whom the economy is most important: Obama 52-44
crossover voting delta: McCain 19-7
among liberals: Obama 77-17
among 18-34s: Obama 53-40
greater Cleveland: Obama 51-44
greater Columbus: McCain 52-41
greater Dayton: McCain 53-41
SE Ohio: non-meaningful number of respondents

SUSA Virginia (9/12-14): Obama 50-46
among those whose mind is made up (83%): Obama 51-48
among those who could change their mind (18%): Obama 42-38-8 other-11 undecided
among men: tied at 48 (+11 from last week)
among women: Obama 52-43 (marginal difference from before Palin pick)
among independents: McCain 48-44 (+17)
among 50+: McCain 48-47 (+13 from last week)
under $50K: Obama 58-38 (+14 from last week)
Party Crossover voting delta: Obama 17-12 (+4 from last week)
Shenandoah: McCain 53-44 (movement to Obama)
NoVA: Obama 51-43 (movement to McCain)
Southeast VA: Obama 56-40
Central VA: Obama 50-46 (movement to Obama)

Selzer/Indy Star-WTHR Indiana: Obama 47-44

arg, I wasn't consistent with my +'s and -'s - +'s: in the national polls, they're + or - for the candidate listed on the same line (tho McCain's movement among men in CBS/NYT should be - rather than +), while in SUSA VA, all +'s are in Obama's favor

You need some graphics.

he was right
http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this.jpg

http://www.butterscotch-pony.com/images/products/butterscotch-pony4.jpg

xp

oh i think it's still very close, but the sky is not falling

more people on this thread need to be like the GAMBLER

I am confident about the fate of the world!

more people on this thread THE INTERNET need to be like the GAMBLER

dynamic rendition

Sabato's (mental) map:

Tossups
Colorado - some Obama lean, but could be because of local convention bounce
Michigan - should come home to Obama on party loyalty
New Hampshire - primary results say don't believe the polls?
Nevada - Dem registration vs. next-door-neighbor
Ohio - 'nuff said
Pennsylvania - should come home to Obama on party loyalty
Virginia - leans slightly McCain, but could come back with better Obama performance in NoVA or won in any event on the ground

Leaning McCain
Florida - McCain has advantage, but hard to predict
Missouri - not bloody likely [me: ground game CYA?]
North Carolina - probable McCain, but looks closer on the ground?

Likely McCain
Indiana - but some next-door-neighbor impact

Now out of reach - Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota

http://www.nysun.com/opinion/underestimating-obama/86083/

http://i38.tinypic.com/21dgbpx.gif

Nader, Barr ballot news:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/09/nader_will_be_on_florida_ballo.html

http://blogs.courant.com/on_background/2008/09/bob-barr-sues-texas-over-ballo.html

You may begin your "two-parties-only" fascist rants now.

those damn Fascists and their dual-party governments

I think your Captain Midnight decoder ring needs a tune-up, Morbs.

Tupac Shakur, for example, would not be as iconic a rapper if he had been taller and bulkier, had a full head of hair, and did not have large eyes. He brought out a parental instinct in men and women, and so does Mr. Obama.

I LIKE THIS POLITICAL ANALYSIS

kerm, saying with a picture what i couldnt say in a 1000 words

I have always wanted to wrap tupac in a blanket, give him a cookie and some warm milk

Especially now.

he keeps dropping the cookie

perhaps I will just take obama to the park and throw a ball to him

I want to wrap John McWhorter in a blanket.

http://media.npr.org/programs/morning/features/2006/aug/race_series/john_mcwhorter200.jpg

Barr is completely OTM re: Texas.

tyler perry for president

There aren't enough fat suits in politics. He dated Tyra, he could make her first lady.

T Perry??? lol, the American President's Beard

I would like to wrap mccain in a blanket, and put him in a chair by the window overlooking the garden. look, john, a rabbit. do you remember rabbits?

poor john, it's just the dementia talking those horrible swear words. i know he didn't mean a word of it, honey. oh come now, there's no need to cry.

BOXCAR

So that's what the reboot of For Better or For Worse was all about.

Oh yes, McCain is totes Grandpa Jim. Of course, in the foobverse Grandpa Jim dies in 2009.

foobverse

I have never encountered this term before and now I feel like someone reading Gerald Feinberg's discussion of tachyons.

A whole new world.

my favorite was when grandpa jim told that spanish reporter to go back to mexico

lolz with Chuck

She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials," Hagel said in an interview published Thursday by the Omaha World-Herald.

At first I seriously thought this read "Obama World-Herald".

Obamaha

Home of Obama's winning electoral vote.

ARG New Hampshire (9/13-15): McCain 48-45
among independents: tied at 45
among women: Obama 54-38

ARG Florida (9/14-17): tied at 46
among independents: McCain 49-41
among women: Obama 50-41
among 18-to-49s: Obama 49-43

SUSA Florida (9/16-17): McCain 51-45
among those whose mind is made up (86%): McCain 52-47
among those who could change their mind (13%): McCain 47-34-4-15
among independents: McCain 49-47
among women: McCain 48-46
among those for whom health care is most important: McCain 51-44
among 18-34s: Obama 49-44
among hispanics: McCain 55-36
among blacks: Obama 77-21
crossover voting delta: McCain 23-17
Central Florida: tied at 48

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/lykz14kvduwtvn3uma5omq.gif

Tim Garton Ash attempting to diagnose political conditions from across the pond, thinks that economic fear might just help McCain:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/18/wallstreet.barackobama

My bad: apparently he's at Stanford now - not across the pond.

they way i read that is if you're worried about the economy, you'll vote Democrat. if you are worried about the economy and you are racist, you will vote Republican

the last few days have definitely been bad news for McCain

I read it more as: If you're worried about the economy and you're well-informed on the issues and you vote rationally, you'll vote for Obama. If you prefer the comfort of the familiar to the promise of the new, you'll vote McCain.

xp

if you think people from Spain all talk like faggy Mexicans, you will likely vote for McCain

I agree with Gabbnebb though - this plays into Obama's area of advantage. McCain has been going through contortions to reinvent himself as a fire-breathing, pro-regulation populist, but I think that he's going to start stretching the credulity of those who've been paying attention. (I'm still wondering where the Obama ads are about McCain's constant flip-flops.)

this whiney ass motherfucker is by far my most favorite on the Corner sorry it's so long

Something About Sarah [Jay Nordlinger]

Earlier this morning, I wrote that the attacks on Governor Palin — particularly the breaking into her e-mail — were making me sick. (Here.) One reader wrote, “I, too, have been feeling a physical revulsion over the Left’s determination to destroy Sarah Palin, by any means necessary.” That reader spoke for many.

One of them said, “What would be the general media reaction if Obama’s e-mail were hacked and disseminated? It would be a lot stronger.” That, too, is a common sentiment.

In my earlier post, I wondered whether Palin would be permanently stigmatized and caricatured — à la Bork, Quayle, and Thomas. Or would she escape the noose, like Reagan? Many readers thought she would — given her communication skills, and given the multiplicity of media now: We have websites, talk radio, etc.

Yes, but there were plenty of outlets in the 1980s and ’90s. And no one’s communication skills are better than Bork’s or Thomas’s. Quayle isn’t bad, either — you don’t rise that high in politics without knowing how to communicate.

Other readers said that Palin was finished, done: “I see that the polls have dramatically switched in Obama’s favor within just one week. I guess that the Borking — the destruction — of this governor is complete.” Another reader said, “I thought Sarah Palin would be a superstar. Now, she’ll be nothing more than a national joke. The Republicans haven’t fought back. The MSM has won.”

Then there is continuing amazement over the sheer hatred that Palin has aroused: “I am almost 60 and come from Massachusetts. In all my years, I have never seen anything like this, and don’t want to see it ever again. I have a friend who is both feminist and left-leaning. I asked her why they hate Palin so much. She said, ‘Because she’s had it all: family, career. And she did it without a man like Bill Clinton helping her. She did it on her own.’”

I have said it before: Hillary Clinton’s husband was president of the United States. Sarah Palin’s works the night shift in an oil field. Who is the feminist hero? Bien sûr.

I myself have a tale to relate. An episode left me kind of shaken, honestly. Last week, I was talking to a friend of mine — a very warm and humane woman. We’ve been friends for years. I had been away, and we hadn’t talked politics — but then, we never do. We never had. She’s a liberal, of course — virtually everyone here in NYC is. And I never, ever bring up politics (with pretty much anyone — not worth the trouble) (and, of course, I do it professionally).

But she said to me, out of the blue, “What do you think of Sarah Palin?” And while I was drawing breath to answer, she said, “I hate her.”

That kind of took my breath away — because this friend of mine is no hater. But she said it with firm, horrible conviction. She said it with true emotion in her eyes. Frankly, I was too taken aback to reply, other than to say, “Well, my feeling is the exact opposite.”

I can see how you might disagree with Governor Palin — she’s a conservative, after all. I can see how you might find her unprepared even for the vice-presidency. But hate? Hate a woman who rose from a modest background to be governor of her state? Who is obviously a warm, civic-minded, talented mother of five?

Hate?

It must be abortion, religion, and culture. If she were pro-choice, went to a mainline church (only on Christmas and Easter), and didn’t hunt, she’d be okay. At least less attacked. But then, she wouldn’t be herself, would she?

I consider myself a very patriotic person, and I have been teased or damned all my life for my pro-American views — particularly in academic settings. But, I’m sorry, this is, in many ways, a sick country.