Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Even the 'good' outcome for Europe will involve economic turmoil, no?

Considering the problems behind the malaise of the past few years have not been remedied, save the solvency of the banks and the rescue of the auto industry, I'd say yeah, we're all cruisin' for a bruisin'. The US (and UK, for that matter) is in no position to weather more severe Euro-chaos, and the instability of the EU will will take us all down, economically. Even China is slowing right now, which is as bad a sign as any (conceding for the moment that the Chinese economy was/is an even bigger illusion than the various U.S. bubbles).

Pessimism? Oh, yeah. But there is no reason to be optimistic. Even better, if all this gets worse before the election, Obama is toast, because the American people are at best in no position to make a reasonable decision but now are particularly susceptible to whims, bad ideas and outright lies. And then we'll go to war again.

The Eurozone is obviously mishandling their economy, due to how poorly integrated the Eurozone countries are politically, so yeah, it seems like another worldwide shit fit is more likely than not. These things usually simmer along through the summertime and then bust open in early autumn.

I may need to do a bit of judicious rebalancing to my extensive portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, gold bullion and post-impressionist artworks. /bullshit

I need to go for a good long hike in the backcountry.

do we have a general Eurozone Crisis thread? I think we need one.

Perhaps rename it Rolling World Economy Into The Shitbin Thread?

gotta search for who's making money offa this turmoil, what political angles they're playing (and who they're paying), and we'll figure out just why this nonsense has been allowed to simmer for so long. it's frustrating b/c we have (at least some of) the answers to getting out of the current economic malaise -- and i'd like to think that when we're thinking about high-level players like this that such ignorance isn't from stupidity but is feigned to mask self-interest.

i miss the rolling DJIA graph at the top

The people making money off of this are the usual suspect: the wealthy minority with enough cash to diversify enough to weather all of this. And when things get worse, they snag up more bargain assets. I think all the "1%" stuff is a bit simplistic, but don't discount the incredible shift of power in favor of the few at the expense of the many. And if you thought it was bad before, man. I imagine the near future will be not unlike the Depression, whether it amounts to a statistical depression or no. We'll have a wealthy minority comfortable, some concerned, some not, while a majority struggles in a sort of parallel world. There's be some sort of mass reset to set it right, and since worker revolt won't happen, I'll put my money once again on war. A real war this time. But I hope it doesn't happen.

Aren't the banks pretty much making all the money? With corporate profits higher than ever, I'm sure they are doing well with the money we gave the banks to give to them.

to the corporations I mean

the banks make their money by gambling on derivatives then taxpayers bail them out to place new bets

But they all learned their lessons and changed their ways! (Looks over at Chase's 2 billion loss). OK, maybe they didn't.

I think all the "1%" stuff is a bit simplistic

Only to the extent that the really big winners have been not the top 1% but the top .01%

Sure, but I think there's a more robust minority with all the money. Like a top 10% or something.

90th percentile of pre-tax income in 2011 for single filers was only about $65,000, if I'm reading this right, and $191,000 for married joint filers.

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=2362

191,000 for a family is a comfortable life but it's not exactly jetset. 65K for an individual certainly isn't.

http://m.rollingstone.com/?redirurl=/culture/news/the-sharp-sudden-decline-of-americas-middle-class-20120622?print=true

so much of this stuff goes under the radar. some of the parking lots in this article are walking distance from my dad's house.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303561504577495332947870736.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

Kinda lol mostly fuk

Bank of America Corp. BAC +3.42%thought it had a bargain four years ago when it paid $2.5 billion for tottering mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. But the ill-fated decision has already cost the Charlotte, N.C., lender more than $40 billion in real-estate losses, legal expenses and settlements with state and federal agencies, according to people close to the bank.

"It is the worst deal in the history of American finance," said Tony Plath, a banking and finance professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. "Hands down."

dudes were desperate to chip away at wells fargo mortgage division.. obviously this was not the right way to do it and I think almost anyone could have predicted such a thing would happen.. dummies.

Kind of reminds me of the famous $100 houses of Detroit...that required tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of work/payment of fines/taxes etc.

http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2012/07/22/poverty-track-rise-highest-level-since/S6mOppYXf7NuFnmnJR20gJ/story.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u8-d95SO_3g#!

unreal

P.S. I miss you tombot

also, the watermelon queen

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-27/ben-bernanke-sean-duffy-and-the-watermelon-queen

but i thought prosperity trickled down?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QPKKQnijnsM

The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

That sounds like a sensible and justified policy to me. Not particularly lefty so much as an adjusted balance -- you want shareholder money, then let shareholders have more power.

This isn't going to end well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGA_ZlZCljw

(wasn't sure if there was a Rolling China Economy Into The Shitbin thread)

tbf people have been saying 'any day now' since 2010 at least

tbf people said "any day now" for a couple years at least before our bust too

Bubbles develop their own momentum and internal logic, even when it is apparent to large numbers of observors that they are bubbles. Because of the dynamics of bubbles, even knowledgable investors will try to reap the last bit of profits from them, and often get burned for their greed when the damn thing explodes on them. The truly smart money harvests some of the big initial profits, then bails out long before the collapse, foregoing the last 40% of the rise.

I've seen at least two bona fide bubbles that I knew for what they were, long before they burst: dot-coms and US real estate. I have never ridden a bubble for fun and profit. Too much of a risk-averse weenie. btw, gold's big jump in the past few years I don't consider to be a bubble - at least not yet. It had some promise of that, but has stalled out below bubble status. Maybe too many investors are leery of it.

the Dollar rally is interesting

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/08/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE91514J20130308

hooray

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fdic-settlements-20130311,0,3871291.story

Bubbles develop their own momentum and internal logic, even when it is apparent to large numbers of observors that they are bubbles. Because of the dynamics of bubbles, even knowledgable investors will try to reap the last bit of profits from them, and often get burned for their greed when the damn thing explodes on them. The truly smart money harvests some of the big initial profits, then bails out long before the collapse, foregoing the last 40% of the rise.

I've seen at least two bona fide bubbles that I knew for what they were, long before they burst: dot-coms and US real estate. I have never ridden a bubble for fun and profit. Too much of a risk-averse weenie. btw, gold's big jump in the past few years I don't consider to be a bubble - at least not yet. It had some promise of that, but has stalled out below bubble status. Maybe too many investors are leery of it.

― Aimless, Monday, 11 March 2013 04:22 (10 hours ago) Permalink

This is the result of a sort of assymetry in the market between long and short -- anyone can buy 100 shares of a stock and ride the bubble, but betting on the bust takes more sophistication, risk tolerance, and an ability to ride things out for a very long time. Irrational exuberance can last years and it's pretty hard to predict when things end. So even cynics often find it easier and more tempting to bet on the bubble than short it. This, of course, fuels the bubble.

OTM. There are a lot of people (and machines) who are adept at riding the bubble for a very long time, not to mention that risk mitigation is pretty sophisticated.

And if there's always a nanny state to bail your bank out, who cares if there's a bubble anyway?

bubbles actually existed before nanny states bailed your bank out

^

finance should really just not exist imo

"gold's big jump in the past few years I don't consider to be a bubble - at least not yet. It had some promise of that, but has stalled out below bubble status. Maybe too many investors are leery of it."

eh. i don't think it'll necessarily massively lose value. it'll just flatten while everything else rises. that's typically how metals work.

there's also so little actual gold that it really couldn't become a bubble (there was the creation of a fair amount of paper gold with ETF shenanigans, but even that could really only go so far. it's not like subprime where you could have cdo^2 and etc. but you could also just give more loans.)

finance should really just not exist imo

― flopson, Monday, March 11, 2013 11:44 AM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

while I understand the sentiment, I think you might not have fully thought through the implications of this

barter or death

i mean, like, finance finance obv

How one feels about finance depends on how eager one is to return to the era before writing was invented. There were rudimentary forms of money lending and insurance even before the first coins were minted. Basically, as soon as there were cities, there was finance. As for me, I am contented if finance is heavily regulated, but allowed to continue.

Wasn't there a silver bubble pretty recently that Soros and Carlos Slim made a killing on?

i mean, like, finance finance obv

― flopson, Monday, March 11, 2013 2:12 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

don't really know what you mean by this, sorry

Really highly remunerated masons unfettered by any government who exist only to invent ways to steal pensions, start with those guys

I mean, the mattress business is crooked as hell, but I don't want to eliminate mattresses

anti-masonry now? i hardly think they're a political force these days...

If 70% of mattresses were being sold to other mattress dealers while magazines were printing sad stories of families huddled together on a threadbare 1984 futon because they couldn't find anyone to sell them a new bed I could understand people calling for an end to the entire bed industry, not just the bad bunks.

smh at clover's naivety, smdh