Real Estate bubble bust may be worse than Dot Com bubble bust

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The line of reasoning that's always the most baffling in these things is "People are always going to want this thing!" i.e. "This is a college town!" or "This is Washington, DC!" Sure, but that doesn't mean it can't be overvalued. Demand is high, but it's not infinite.

Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 16:57 (eighteen years ago) link

Deducting your mortgage expenses may even be enough to cover your property taxes!

Brian Miller (Brian Miller), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:03 (eighteen years ago) link

Who gives a shit? You're still stuck with a crappy, overvalued condo.

Allyzay knows a little German (allyzay), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:05 (eighteen years ago) link

OTOH, I guess if it's a nice house, and it's in an area you want to stay in (like DC) as opposed to just some brand-new investment condo in Fla, then it's not the greatest tragedy in the world if the house loses a little value.

Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:37 (eighteen years ago) link

ally & tombot here are the voices of reason.

if you have at least 1 functioning brain cell, rent don't buy. let the stuff that comes w/ buying be some other shithead's problem.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:37 (eighteen years ago) link

Another mayjor problem with buying in the current market - most of the people I know (DC area) who have bought property have waived the right to an inspection, because if they don't then the next person will. Of course, this never turns out well. More of a problem with houses/townhouses than condos, though.

Brian Miller (Brian Miller), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:42 (eighteen years ago) link

major typo

Brian Miller (Brian Miller), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:43 (eighteen years ago) link

xpost: It's hard to understand why ANYONE would want to buy under those conditions.

Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:46 (eighteen years ago) link

why do lemmings (or sheep in turkey) leap off cliffs?

Eisbär (llamasfur), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:47 (eighteen years ago) link

I'm shocked at how much people are willing to suffer just to not live in the ghetto.

-- carbon (identitymachine...), July 12th, 2005.

Or, in the case of Jersey City, IN the ghetto. $375,000 for a two-bedroom. Not even near the PATH. One of its selling points is "walking distance from HOBOKEN." !!!???

Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 17:49 (eighteen years ago) link

walking across rte 1 (near the holland tunnel) whilst drunk is always such a wonderful idea ... might kill some of the dumber motherfuckers moving to hoboken/jersey city, so maybe that's not such a bad thing?!?

Eisbär (llamasfur), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:01 (eighteen years ago) link

Actually, it's on the other side of Rte. 1, in The Heights. But still. WTF?

Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:04 (eighteen years ago) link

so wait, i think that "walking distance to hoboken" means that you have to walk up/down paterson plank road to JC Heights -- if that's so, then that's as retarded as walking across rte 1.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:06 (eighteen years ago) link

I think that's what it is.

Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:07 (eighteen years ago) link

OTOH, I guess if it's a nice house, and it's in an area you want to stay in (like DC)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA wtf seriously?

Allyzay knows a little German (allyzay), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:11 (eighteen years ago) link

man, i wish i still had that Onion article from 3 years ago. The headline was something like "Home-buying Up Among Lame-o's"

kingfish (Kingfish), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:15 (eighteen years ago) link

"Walking Distance To Hoboken" should be a ska song.

TOMBOT, Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:17 (eighteen years ago) link

when we lived in oakland i would've laughed at the idear of buying a house. (that's why we moved actually.)

so i really don't blame those of you who are totally uninterested.

i guess it's just possible here. you really CAN fuck up here too, but it's possible to buy and it not be totally insane.
m.

msp (mspa), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:32 (eighteen years ago) link

aw crap I'm a lame-o! we're gonna buy, it makes sense for us here in the lou. no way would I do it on the eastern seaboard hot spots etc, but here about every other house is still empty, the schools are shitty, and the city has a bad rep. We were going to rent, and it's cheap here--I was finding plenty of duplexes going for around $700/2-3 bdrm, but for that much money in mortgage we can have a whole house to ourselves...another bedroom, basement/rec room, deck, and a yard. Not that I love lawn care but the rest of it is cool. (and this is for a completely redone home, if I wanted a fixer-upper I'd barely have to deal with a mortgage) So I'm in a weird little area where there's plenty of supply and not so much demand. I dont' think I'm getting one over on the market or anything, but I think it'll work out.

teeny (teeny), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:42 (eighteen years ago) link

Congrats Teeeny! What kind of house is it?

Mary (Mary), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:46 (eighteen years ago) link

does it have a Great Room?

kyle (akmonday), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:48 (eighteen years ago) link

oh thanks! but we don't know yet, I just started looking. A year ago: single childless renter, now I'm married with a baby and a house on the way!

It will almost certainly not have a great room, those things kind of skeeve me out.

teeny (teeny), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:49 (eighteen years ago) link

and can we crash there when the tour hits town? we'll bring booze!

kingfish (Kingfish), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:50 (eighteen years ago) link

In St. Lou, I assume they have like prairie/ranch style? Get one of those? Or do they have minimalist style? Or bungalow? Get an architecturally cute one, please.

Mary (Mary), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 18:58 (eighteen years ago) link

no, actually ranches are few and far between! most of the housing stock is 110-80 years old. There are a lot of beautiful victorians and jeffersonians, some neighborhoods are full of bungalows and shotguns, some are full of tudors, some are full of two-story brick buildings with porches. There is a lot of completely charming architecture here!

teeny (teeny), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 19:09 (eighteen years ago) link

I'm pretty sure the bubble is going to burst, like, any day now. That's because we bought a new (well, used) house a month ago and we still haven't sold the one we are living in. We are sweating two mortgages (and everything else) like crazy...it didn't help that our new house has been broken into twice since we bought it, either. So I'm sure the market will now fall apart and leave us owning two homes in an area that will be almost impossible to rent in.

And we didn't buy on speculation, either. We bought because we are having a third kid and we need the living space.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 19:23 (eighteen years ago) link

if the local market isn't overheated, then doing what teeny is doing makes sense. (dunno what the market in atlanta is like, so can't speak to don's situation). it's entirely different in the NYC and DC metro areas, though.

"Walking Distance To Hoboken" should be a ska song.

it's a good thing that you didn't make this recommendation a few years ago, tombot, seeing as that point there were more ska-bands in the hoboken/jersey city area than there are flies swarming around a freshly-squeezed batch of horse shit.

Eisbär (llamasfur), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 19:31 (eighteen years ago) link

it's a good thing that you didn't make this recommendation a few years ago, tombot, seeing as that point there were more ska-bands in the hoboken/jersey city area than there are flies swarming around a freshly-squeezed batch of horse shit.

Does the *shudder* World Inferno/Friendship Society still exist?

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 19:35 (eighteen years ago) link

Does the *shudder* World Inferno/Friendship Society still exist?

apparently

Eisbär (llamasfur), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 19:49 (eighteen years ago) link

our market isn't nearly as overheated as NY/DC/SF/LA/Florida. Indeed there are areas of this MSA which are overvalued but where I live isn't likely one of them. We'll sell this house, it's just a matter of how many months we'll be tossing money out the window.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 20:14 (eighteen years ago) link

tossing money out the window? but you're BUILDING EQUITY!!!!!!!!!!!

TOMBOT, Tuesday, 12 July 2005 20:18 (eighteen years ago) link

Our ROI (based on a thorough assessment based on all relevant inputs) living in this house for the past five years is likely to be around 5%. Not a very good per annum if you see your house as an investment vehicle. Which, a lot of people erroneously figure to do. Not to mention the fact that most people never accurately assess the investment value of their home, investment vehicle or not. Most people would do better with REITs rather than play the market themselves.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 20:51 (eighteen years ago) link

Tired: buying
Wired: squatting/leeching relatives

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:00 (eighteen years ago) link

don, hope things work out in any case. I do know of people planning to move to the AYE TEE ELL from HERRE-I-KANE LAND (which isn't that surprising), if it's any hope to your financial situation.

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:03 (eighteen years ago) link

(...which will increase the chance of prospective buyers, hence.)

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:03 (eighteen years ago) link

thanks donut. the new house has a huge basement, which means all the leechers will be showing up soon (including various bands that I've offered floorspace and showers over the years.)

As for hurricanes, we get tons of hurricane effect rain. More yearly inches of rainfall here than Seattle, allegedly.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:15 (eighteen years ago) link

I don't doubt that, but you don't own prime gulf coast/southeast coastal property.. which makes a difference as far as the potential damage to one's house in a single weather event blow. I think many of those people who weathered (no pun intended) the last five or six hurricanes since last year with little harm are seeing images of their luck running out, and quickly getting the f outta dodge to safer inland citylife.

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:19 (eighteen years ago) link

It's a bit predatory, but an odd phase of steady hurricane smackdowns can do that in a short amount of time, even.

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:20 (eighteen years ago) link

I have several friends who cleared upwards of $200K selling their condos in the Redneck Riviera this past year (with ROIs above 25%.) Five years ago, $20K would have given me a $130K payoff on a condo this year but back then I had other priorities. Other people I know were very busy flipping properties and just putting everything right back into the market to varying degrees of success. The past 5/6 hurricanes were problematic but population growth, demo changes, and the rebound of the economy has kept most level heads from wanting to bail. The difference now is that you can't get an investment condo for $200K, which has limited greenhorn investors quite a bit in that area.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:27 (eighteen years ago) link

Slight sidetrack, but don, you mentioned an economic rebound? I'm guessing this is regional? Things have certainly gotten at least a little better, but surging and volatile gas prices have been having some effect on the economy, I've noticed. And gas is only going to get more expensive (and potentially more volatile in price) as time passes... this segues into (what I'm guessing will be) its effect on a real estate bubble bust as the cost of living in a McMansion 50 Miles Away From Work rises dramatically. It won't be the factor, but it will be one of the weights that breaks the camel's back, me thinks.

I'm thankful I live relatively central to Seattle (renting), but I'm already seeing people thinking about this, and prices of central housing has risen dramatically compared to far-and-away suburbs. I just hope there's a motion/design/architecture present at the time to help centralize and expand those suburbs into their own useful cultural hubs, instead of letting them suffocate and becoming wastelands.. and talk about devalued property.

(hmmm, don't know if that makes sense or not.)

donuty! donuti! donuté! (donut), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 21:41 (eighteen years ago) link

The house we bought in Williamsburg Brooklyn last year, although it was torture trying to come up with 20% for the downpayment and I was covered in dust and paint for 3 months, now with our 30 year fixed and renting out the bottom floor, my part of the mortgage comes to less than I have spent on a pair of shoes before. If only Ally had not fallen down stairs, she and Tom could have seen it!

h0t h0t h0rsey (Carey), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 22:00 (eighteen years ago) link

donut, I refer to the end of the recession and resulting expansion. Our local economy is pretty good and has been for the past few years--we can debate the relative health of the economy (i.e. link/source conflicting economists' opinions on the matter) on another thread.

Point above being that there are many smart people who think that there is still a lot of money to be made in real estate in the bubble markets. There have been real estate naysayers about this bubble for at least two years, and frankly, there are investors out there who can afford to ride out the bubble even if it bursts.

I might also point out that many people in the 'burbs consider their lifestyles to be full of relevant culture--they see what they do (convenient, quality child rearing, even if it makes for a long commute) as the very definition of their culture. Church, youth soccer, Chuck E. Cheese, and all that shit is their culture. For many of them, it's now multiple-generations deep. Exurbs, suburbs, white flight, whatever--the only reason they even bother associating with the MSA is for the airport, sports teams, and a place of employment.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 22:03 (eighteen years ago) link

and also, in the case of my fair city, for the dozens of jiggle joints.

don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 22:04 (eighteen years ago) link

Cool Teeny. Make sure you get a porch. Or what about a row house? Are they abundant in the Lou?

Mary (Mary), Wednesday, 13 July 2005 02:15 (eighteen years ago) link

What's an ROI?

Mary (Mary), Wednesday, 13 July 2005 02:24 (eighteen years ago) link

Return on investment, i believe.

I might also point out that many people in the 'burbs consider their lifestyles to be full of relevant culture--they see what they do (convenient, quality child rearing, even if it makes for a long commute) as the very definition of their culture

man, do you got that fuckin' right. I never really understood the pejorative context of the insult "breeder" until i got a temp job at a huge suburban mortgage building. The place was filled with mostly middle-class women who primary defining characteristic is spitting out crotch-spawnlings as fast as they can; lots of mothers of varying educational backgrounds and of varying marital status who all had like 3 kids by the time they turned 23.

seriously, it made me realize why much mainstream american pop culture(read: things covered by the E! channel) is how it is. Kids are DEIFIED in our culture, due in part to so many folks having absolutely no identify except in terms of rearing children. These were the folks who'd come home from work, cook dinner, watch American Idol, go to bed, then come into work the next day to discuss the previous night's American Idol all the live-fuckin'-long day. They then would go home, cook dinner, and watch that night's Idol. Repeat for 30+ years.

My buddy had to sit next to them. I hid inside of my clamshell headphones.

also, i should correct myself; that Onion headline above should be something like "Home-Buying Up Among Suburban Lame-o's"

kingfish (Kingfish), Wednesday, 13 July 2005 03:05 (eighteen years ago) link

florida sees a shake out of the weak real estate branches every once in a while. but many hurricanes or no... most inland property survives pretty well if the construction is quality. also, consider that the home owner's insurance for folks living right on the water is provided for by the govt and is basically tax-payer subsidized. most folks build knowing that if it's all washed away that they'll get a fat check and they can rebuild. my parents and brother have done well with the florida housing markets. i think they're both ready to get out of there though. my bro looking to raleigh and my parents wanting to retire in seattle.

m.

msp (mspa), Wednesday, 13 July 2005 03:35 (eighteen years ago) link

$75000 ROI for me...not to bad in 4 years time. I don't see whats wrong with that.

Lupton Pitman (Chris V), Wednesday, 13 July 2005 08:52 (eighteen years ago) link

ROI = return on investment
MSA = metropolitan statistical area i.e. a city including relevant suburbs

Nothing at all wrong with making $75K, although in figuring ROI you want to make sure you consider all relevant factors (inflation, taxes, tax implications, any improvements, etc.) If you are thorough in figuring out ROI then you can accurate compare it to other possible investment vehicles over the same period in real terms.

don weiner (don weiner), Wednesday, 13 July 2005 09:51 (eighteen years ago) link

three weeks pass...
Krugman has a great piece on the housing bubble today:

That Hissing Sound

o. nate (onate), Monday, 8 August 2005 14:11 (eighteen years ago) link


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