2008 Primaries Thread

Gore not likely to endorse anyone

Come on, we all moved out of OH for very good reasons

(it's true)

Chris, Middletown, CT February 11, 2008 5:31 pm ET

He can't endorse….he's far too busy with this global warming deal…and telling everyone its caused by humans…without explaining how it was far warmer thousands of years ago….(and far colder too) - it takes a man like Al Gore to explain why man-made CO2 has caused our planet to warm 1 degree in 100 years….and why even on his own charts does the heat rise first….then CO2 level after…(funny…cause and effect work differently in Al Gores world)

you see people Al's busy now…

Reading that, those all sound like good and useful reasons for not endorsing.

PANIC:

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.

“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.

Holy Toledo! I never would have imagined that.

barring an Obama meltdown in their TX debate, there's no way she'll win both states comfortably.

I assume this article is overstating the case at least a bit. Even if she loses everything in Feb., and wins Tx./Ohio on razor-thin margins, I can't see her bowing out. Why should she? She'll have won the two biggest prizes since Super Tuesday's split decision.

It does seem very unlikely.

yeah but its not that she'll stop, its that her superdelegates might become unpledged

and if his % of delegates keeps rising the party will put more and more pressure on her to drop out.

That's possible, Deej, but she could still make it an agonizing process by staying in. See, e.g., Frank Rich's column, which -- while perhaps implausible -- sets forth one possible nightmare scenario.

One possibility: If the Clintons see the nomination slipping away unless it's wrested from Obama in the most vicious ways imaginable (strong-arm tactics, tearing the party apart along racial lines, allowing a horribly divisive nat'l party convention), maybe they'll decide to bow out gracefully and preserve -- perhaps even enhance -- their legacy.

Longshot, I know, but the whole premise of that article is a longshot, to me.

after SC I think that possibility might be unprecedented for the Clintons, but not necessarily a longshot.

I just think that HRC's abysmal decisions against Obama -- setting up his running the table this month (n.1) -- means his anticipated momentum may carry him through Tx. and Ohio, and if he wins those two states, too, he'll be unstoppable unless he's violently kneecapped.

____________________________
(n.1) Somebody posted the article upthread already, but apparently HRC -- despite deep fundraising advantages months ago -- decided to spend everything in the early states, while Obama spread out his ad buys to states that had primaries this weekend (the four he just swept).

1) At a lunch discussion thing today, one of my profs (D@nny H@y3s) made I think a really good point. There's all this talk right now about Dems being disillusioned if Obama loses or conservatives staying home because of McCain. But up til now, there's been very little talk of Iraq. As soon as there's a settled Dem candidate, it will become a central issue, since it's probably the biggest policy difference between McCain and either of the Dem contenders. And that's going to polarize the population into a more normal distribution. Dems may be pissed at Hillary, but they know McCain's going to keep the war going for as long as he's in office. Conservatives may hate McCain, but they're not going to stay home when a defeatocrat could be pres.

That may be, but the economy might be an even more significant issue, since newspapers are now running stories that we're in a recession.

(as opposed to just worrying about one).

Help is on the way for HRC in Ohio: Sen. Glenn to Endorse HRC

2) You can paste this back in later if the shit goes down, but I would be flabbergasted if there's a brokered convention or a split vote of the superdelegates. G00's right, it's unlikely that someone would drop out voluntarily, but the actual Democratic establishment has a very, very strong interest in not having it come down to a convention. The Clintons have their own power base, not control over the party, and in particular the people like Dean who are runing the party apparatus these days aren't Clinton loyalists. People can say they're "pledged" right now to whoever the fuck they want. If one candidate has won the most states and has the most votes, the Democratic establishment is going to get its shit together and roll over for that candidate. Dean may have to crack some whips and there may have to be favors called in but anyone who's a superdelegate would be crazy to want to throw the nomination to someone who's lost the popular vote when both candidates are viable, electable, and far from an insurgent. It's a nice idea, but I really don't think it's gonna happen.

I don't think it will happen, either. But with HRC as the possible disappointed candidate -- with all the Clintons' influence, savvy and machinery -- HRC could still make this a very wrenching, harmful process.

i think we're sort of counting chickens here! there could be surprises just about anywhere yet

but.. the trouble is.. is there a Democratic establishment, now? there are the Clinton people, and the Kennedy people, and they've lined up, and afaik Dean is sort of off on an island but doesn't see eye to eye with the Clinton people to put it mildly. I mean the DNC is about broke, there's not some powerful apparatus they've got going there.

But everyone in the Democratic establishment ultimately has a concern for the party itself. And this just doesn't seem like a situaiton where they'd be willing to tear the party apart in order for their preferred candidate to win. Many of these people have their own elections to win, after all, and running on behalf of a party that essentially negates the popular vote isn't really a strong position.

The Dems were able to move in a pretty coherent way in the midterm elections, for instance, even though they were divided and fighting.

RESULT NUMBER TWO: http://blogsearch.google.com/blogsearch?hl=en&q=huckabee+tyra&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=nb

i just want to post it again:

http://www.popcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/tyra1.jpg

The hottie and the nottie.

Tyra's not that bad

the huckabee and the nuckabee

the governor and the lol hueg crazy lady pretending to play guitar

did it all for the nuckabee

that yo nucka, b?

Seriously, I can't get over that Tyrabee photo.

you can learn a lot about their sex lives from that photo.

http://image.blingee.com/images15/content/output/000/000/000/2bd/50120433_569288.gif

<3 <3 <3

I saw Dan Savage give a talk tonight and he wore a Huckabee t-shirt.

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/11218/thumbs/s-HUCKABEE-SQUIRREL-large.jpg

Is that a broadcaster or a telecaster that she has?

in related news, from Sept 2007:

http://weblogs.variety.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/09/28/barack_tyra_2.jpg

Obama is tempted by the Goblin King, apparently

can we just stop for a moment, just a moment, and appreciate the cast of characters on display in this election? This is the stuff of legend.

o damn i just found out my cousin is a superdelegate

http://edition.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2008/02/11/intv.super.delegates.cnn

hes the dude in that clip ^^ former gore staffer

can we just stop for a moment, just a moment, and appreciate the cast of characters on display in this election?

"The 2008 Presidential Election"

Starring:

Oprah Winfrey
Chuck Norris
A Bunch Of Politicians
Rudy Giuliani
Tyra Banks
Chauncey Billups
The Clinton Family
a single mother raising 9 kids in South Carolina
Wolf Blitzer
Donnie and Marie Osmond
Dead Kennedys
Martin Luther King
guy from Law & Order
The Grateful Dead
featuring George Allen as "Macaca"
and a cast of thousands of Paultards

hahah, great thread. much agreed on the topic. seen this btw? http://www.5min.com/Video/Obama-with-a-Twist-by-Balloon-Artist-Ori-Livney-5714494

*ahem* Martin Luther King Jr.

yeah, much agreed on the topic too!

take obama
his stirring oratory belies his (somewhat benign) opaqueness on certain matters.

just writing newspaper bylines here.