2008 Primaries Thread

he's also winning Grammys.

He won best spoken word LMAO.

-- The Brainwasher, Sunday, February 10, 2008 12:44 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Link

BEATING OUT BILL CLINTON TOO LMAO

link to rich column??

-- deej, Sunday, February 10, 2008 2:16 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10rich.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin

True enough. See Chicago vs downstate, or the example of Buffalo where Molly's from, where they're convinced that they have a net tax loss to support NYC, despite facts being to the contrary.

Yeah I meant Junior. We live in Nashville.

dick, it seems like you got out of bed on the wrong side this morning. you might just want to let it go.

yeah this thread is a clusterfuck enough w/o you guys going a it

so anyway everyone was saying hillary was supposed to win maine cause of the demographics and she got served - a sigh on things to come?

uh sign

im sure ive said this before but i dont think the superdelegates have any interest in swinging this thing - particularly if the delegate leader is polling better than the second place finisher in the general election - a lot of these people have to run on the same ticket

well, the point I'm making is that the conventional wisdom about demographics seems off. Obama wins big in pretty much every largely white state. But, yeah, I'm assuming this momentum will keep building and spill over into states where the demographics don't seem to be as much in his favor -- Ohio, Pennsylvania.

x post I pointed out that gershy's comment was unacceptable. Since then, it's been me (with one nice assist from my fiancee) defending off gershy and a pathetic claque, who have gone so far as to try to have me banned from ILX and have tried to claim that I'm using Molly as a sockpuppet. I think I was entitled to defend myself against slander, and those who pulled this bullshit should feel shame and apologize.

Since I know I won't get an apology, I'll leave it at that.

plz stop we get it ok

jesus christ

deej:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=frank+rich+column

yeah i went there

Dick, I don't think anyone tried to get you banned (at least not recently, I don't see any "ban Dickerson Pike" thread on ModReq)

What this says to me is that it's easier for white voters, in mass, to support a black candidate in states with very small black populations

what numbers bear this idea out?

(see primary results)

right, but besides this primary? the argument becomes pretty circular if that's the only backup

Rev, I tried to stick up for myself on noize board after guess who whined and I ended up with a ban after strained agitation from several folks, was accused of sockpuppeting (from ILE, not noize0, followed by gloating. Now are we done with this?

yah ive heard this obama cant win wite in racially mixed states meme everywhere recently and im just not buying - there are plenty of other trends to look at there

dp how are you not saying "in the 2008 democratic primaries, obama has won a coupla few very white states, so i conclude that white voters are more likely to vote for black people if they themselves aren't around black people (??). want proof? just look at obama in the 2008 primaries!"

of course tying al gore to anyone is going for the jugular, so maybe i just don't have what it takes

woops wrong thread sorry dudes!

I'm not saying he can't win white votes in diverse areas -- clearly he can. But he's winning much larger percentages of the white vote in non-diverse areas. This is not a coincidence is all I'm saying.

Even if it's only true in this election (and since Obama is the only serious African-American presidential candidate of the post-civil-rights-movement generation, we don't have a lot of examples to go on, obv.) it's still true. And seems to mean something.

Tracer, did you mean me or Hubie?

x post woops

This is not a coincidence is all I'm saying.

uh yah i dont know if you want to call it a coincidence but it could easily just be a side effect of other trends - like hillary being strong w/old white people in the northeast and south her two home regions - or any other such theories

i mean people arent just voting y/n obama hes running against hillary

x post - My father (67, white) voted Hillary b/c of policy details and the feeling that she's a brawler when one is called for, not a negative anti Obama formulation

She won California, jh0shea. I wonder if people in the Hillary states are seeing this is a familiar state office primary set-up, with unfamiliar urban liberal (sometimes, not always, black) vs established carefully moderate figure from outside the big city. It seems like I've seen this kind of thing many times before, just not in a presidential primary that lasted long enough to accrue a lot of evidence.

yah but she didnt win wites by too much in california - she did pwn latinos tho

Los Klansmen

http://i28.tinypic.com/wgvw2r.jpg

Hubie Brown! pls come back & fix our Memphis Grizzlies

cleentone not klanton

http://www2.truman.edu/~ramberg/teaching/jins362/simpsonsaliens.gif

Grizzlies, get Gene Bartow the fuck out of there. And move back to the Pyramid.

("Imagine you're Hubie Brown. You came out of retirement to lead a lowly franchise to their first playoff appearance and you win Coach of the Year with a sold-out building chanting your name. Four years later, you're broadcasting a nationally televised game between the Lakers and the Heat and your old point guard from that team is playing for the Heat and your star forward from that team is patrolling the painted area for the Lakers. Meanwhile, that team you led to respectability is one of the worst in the league and has among the lowest attendance. That hurts, jack! Wish I could.")

Sorry -- xpost.

(The Pyramid is a glorified high-school gym soon to be the world's biggest bait shop.)

Again, two things happened since Supertuesday:

* Romney dropped out --> we know who will be the GOP candidate now
* Obama and CLinton still tied after SuperTuesday!

People are now voting different than they did before Supertuesday.

California would be an Obama state if it was a post-Supertuesday state.

It's not difficult to figure out, guys.

WOW WELL FIGURED OUT THAT WASNT THAT HARD TY !

Who are the parties again? I've heard of them.

Mackro, do you think that the overwhelming majority of Mexican-American and other voters of Central American background who gave Hillary would change? If so based on what?

Relevant because they could vote in big numbers in Texas.

dp, based on jackshit. It's how well each candidate is campaigning in each state. Latinos didn't naturally gravitate to Hillary via Osmosis. Hillary very succinctly got the Latino vote through her hard work campaigning there -- BEFORE there was a consensus in ANY party.

Hillary didn't so any campaigning here in Washington. Heavily latino Yakima County went overwhelmingly Obama, among many other WA counties.

There are too many counterexamples to every hypothesis that "People who are colored like THIS vote like THIS" bullshit.

That said, if there's momentum for a winner, more people are likely going to go with the one with the momentum. That could CHANGE if the second-place candidate does some smart campaigning.

I'm not ignoring that race isn't a factor as far as campaign strategies, but you guys are making predictions on who will win JUST based on race, which I think is dumb and fucked.

And I say that having done the same thing myself. I thought Hillary would do much better in Washington state because "OMG there are tons of older white liberal women here". I'm to blame, too. Now I know I was full of shit.

its all yr fault

xp to Mackro - Don't disagree with your point about race, causation, and voting (though I said nothing that implied necessity), I'm just saying that Texas may resemble California more than you seem to believe, and less in common with eastern Washington.

Oh I'm sure. However, Obama's surely doing some work there too, *and* he now has an advantage due to some intermediary momentum -- again, that could change on Tuesday for all we know.

I also don't know how much to believe about momentum, things have been very volatile with several swings in momentum in the last five weeks.

That said I keep hearing Clinton's campaign is running out of money (I wonder if that will affect superdelegates, or is that too abstract).

That said I keep hearing Clinton's campaign is running out of money

lol

wow maybe that will encourage some donations maybe maybe

she is consistently trailing Obama in donations.