2008 Primaries Thread

Maybe she's making a play for the VP spot.

crazy old lady

Thought this was worth highlighting from Rich's piece:

Mrs. Clinton did pile up her expected large margin among Latino voters in California. But her tight grip on that electorate is loosening. Mr. Obama, who captured only 26 percent of Hispanic voters in Nevada last month, did better than that in every state on Tuesday, reaching 41 percent in Arizona and 53 percent in Connecticut. Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign’s attempt to drive white voters away from Mr. Obama by playing the race card has backfired. His white vote tally rises every week. Though Mrs. Clinton won California by almost 10 percentage points, among whites she beat Mr. Obama by only 3 points.

Tad Devine's op-ed today might be more significant - a Gore shot across Hillary's bow?

southern states still show a significant racial divide ... 70% of whites in LA went for clinton

Do they even do political assassinations anymore? Thats so 1968

http://www.digischool.nl/kleioscoop/bhutto%20benazir.jpg

O HAI

So as a measure of how fucked-up the delegate shit is, check out the Times' helpfully transparent breakdown of the count:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html

They have Clinton over Obama 912-741. But that includes the "surveyed" superdelegates, giving her 202 and him 99. So take those away and it's 710-642, a gap of 70. Then look a little more and see they don't count any delegates from a whole bunch of states Obama's won: Washington, Nebraska, North Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Colorado, and Alaska. The AP projection has them within 25, but looking at that breakdown, I think (counting out the superdelegates) Obama's probably made up enough ground in the uncounted states to be pretty close to tied. Actually, going with CNN's count (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D), he makes up 71 delegates in those states. Soooo...

By Iowa I meant Idaho, but they don't have Iowa on there either turns out, so give him another 1.

Which means by my count, ignoring the superdelegates, he should be up by 4.

the whole concept of 'pledged superdelegates' is retarded

I'm really curious what their methodology was--what constitues "committed"? What question did they ask? (For isntance, was it "Who are you supporting" or "Of the candidates, are you entirely committed to voting for one, and if so, which one?") Did they call all 800 within the same timespan, or are they relying on old answers? Seems real fishy.

The campaigns provide them with lists. Anyone can change their minds. Chuck Todd's math, which I'm guessing is better than any of ours, says O's ahead 65 without supes, and Hillary's ahead 24 with.

Juan Williams seemed less hateful this morning, but was he playing a double game in arguing that the GOP wants O? http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Juan_Williams_calls_out_Fox_analysts_0210.html

Obama was great as usual at the lectern in Virgina last night. But it seemed like he had a little extra bit of confidence from the way Saturday's returns favored him; also maybe from doing what he does best on the same mic Hillary just spoke at. It seemed like it pushed him over the top into Presidential Contender Badass territory.

http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/imgad?id=CLq45NyvhIH8YxCgARjCBDIIGmUcOLpV8KA

WA state GOP stopped counting GOP votes at 87% and declared McCain winner, Huckabee and Paul closely behind.

Huckabee says FUCK YOU COUNT THEM ALL BICH

Last night at some point I was on the phone with jules and drifting out of consciousness in the middle of sentences (ooh, fun medication!), which led to some weird nonsequitors that she told me about this morning. But her favorite was when I blurted, with no prompting and not on any topic at hand, "HILLARY JUST NEEDS TO LEAVE US ALONE!"

I think Frank Rich is right about that point, though -- I don't know about "war," but we won't see Obama get the nom before we see Hillary bring out some demonic fucking claws. Which will shock the nation, of course, because she's so lovable right now.

Do they even do political assassinations anymore? Thats so 1968

These things go in and out of fashion. More so than platform shoes. It's been a longer lull than usual.

Juan Williams seemed less hateful this morning, but was he playing a double game in arguing that the GOP wants O? http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Juan_Williams_calls_out_Fox_analysts_0210.html

-- gabbneb, Sunday, February 10, 2008 1:06 PM (49 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

the thought had crossed my mind too but i rejected it for a number of reasons ... it sounds like the same logic that calls karl rove an EVIL GENIUS

also juan sounds pro-clinton

i guess mackro was right on the ron paul tip. it's a caucus, tho.

lol @ "fun medication" turning kenan into a Republican housewife

southern states still show a significant racial divide ... 70% of whites in LA went for clinton

hillary klanton

^^^ Idiotic stereotyping.

It's possible to vote for one person or the other for reasons that don't have to do with race, and more to do with regional political tendencies.

thank you for taking my post very seriously, we need more aspies on this thread

After all, Bobby Jindal won the LA governorship after winning more white votes from Republicans, Democrats, and independents than any other candidate.

Even as a joke, Gershy, it's a fucked up thing to say.

are you denying that the clintons are playing racial politics in the primaries?

I figured you would abandon the "it was just a joke" defense. I just didn't expect it to happen so soon.

Of course I wouldn't deny it. Bill's dismissive remarks after South Carolina cinched my Obama vote (after Edwards dropped out).

But voters from the deep south who would be susceptible to the racial politics dog whistle abandoned the Democrats in 1980 or so. So no, I don't think racial bias contributed at all significantly to Hillary's win among whites in LA.

what does regional political tendencies mean in this case?

Bread and butter issues. Preference for familiar names over new faces, and skepticism of flavors-of-the-week. It's part of a regional cultural conservatism, but among Dems, it has nothing to do with race.

The David Dukes of the south are Republicans now, and swap code words about original intent and states rights. Your sort of smug ignorance is the kind of thing that makes it too easy for the bigots to split up the middle -- "see, to them, you're just a racist hick, while we talk your language."

It doesn't take too much of a stretch of thinking to argue that any Hillary voter must be a racist. Good luck with that.

your projecting some crazy stuff dude, but whatever.
my joke had nothing to do wit LA or the south, if the quote had said New Hampshire/South Dakota or any other northern state, would have been the same

good luck with thinking all white voters in the south are immune to racial appeals too

white dem voters that is

So when I look through the New Hampshire stuff up the page, I'll see your earlier joke tying New Hampshire voters to the Klan, right?

X-post

Whoah, goalposts moved again, big surprise.

if someone had posted that upthread, yes

and you're the one making blanket statements, dude

Cheap internet rhetorical devices employed by Gershy so far: "it was a just a joke," arguments of perversity, straw men, changing the terms of debate.

the straw men have been of your creation

"debate"

lmao @ "dickerson pike" - who is this guy? is he buddy with rock hardy??really standing up for the honor of the South against imaginary attacks.

-- gershy, Sunday, February 10, 2008 4:29 PM (Sunday, February 10, 2008 4:29 PM) Bookmark Link

ban nude spock

internet hardmen will rise again

Bread and butter issues. Preference for familiar names over new faces, and skepticism of flavors-of-the-week. It's part of a regional cultural conservatism, but among Dems, it has nothing to do with race.

-- Dickerson Pike, Sunday, February 10, 2008 3:06 PM (52 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

lol southern black folks, always choosing new faces and flavors of the week

we need more aspies on this thread

Oh, I'll be back soon.

WASHINGTON - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has replaced campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, naming longtime aide Maggie Williams to the top job.

Solis Doyle announced the shift in an e-mail to the staff on Sunday.

"I have been proud to manage this campaign and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than 16 years," Solis Doyle wrote. "Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job."

The move comes a day after rival Barack Obama swept contests in Washington state, Nebraska, Louisiana

Deej, yeah, I'd say that southern blacks have less vested in the existing national party power structure.

lmao @ "dickerson pike" - who is this guy? is he buddy with rock hardy??really standing up for the honor of the South against imaginary attacks.

hahaha, wait, what? When have I EVER stood up for the honor of the South? I can barely tolerate this place.

Meanwhile, Obama appears to be winning Maine...