2008 Primaries Thread

(j/k). Carter was perhaps underrated. Unlike the Presidents to follow him, he had too much humility and modesty to pass off responsibility for bad happenings on other people (e.g., his famous "the economy's woes are my fault" speech, which you can't imagine a President giving today).

Alex in Baltimore OTM. I've had the same discussion with the very smart but weirdly neocon-ish dude in the office across the hall. I guess I understand some of the apprehension w/r/t to Obama, but it seems weirdly vociferous among otherwise reasonable indies and even Dems (this is all personal experience. I don't have any polls to back this up).

At the very least, dude couldn't do worse than the last 8 yrs even if he called a press conference each and every morning of his term to let the American public watch him take a dump on the White House lawn.

xp: wait a sec, Carter's "malaise" speech was widely interpreted as putting blame on the American public. (also unimaginable today, as was his winning the nom with NO MONEY)

For anyone who's studied political science, the Carter comparison makes you cringe--the Carter administration is a legendary source of cautionary tales. Neudstadt's (and someone else's) book Thinking in Time contains so many critiques of Carter's actions that at one point they actually apologize for picking on him.

Point is, there are important differences, not the least of which is that Obama's been a senator and so has national experience, whereas Carter came from Georgia and tried to change Washington with new people. Unlike Carter, Obama is shying away from talking about timeframes for getting things done, which is good. And he does seem more savvy about how Washington works than Carter was. Obama's strategy thus far has been underappreciated and savvy as hell. Carter took advantages of new electoral rules and post-Watergate cynicism to come from behind. Clinton came from behind on a message of hope as a southern governor too. And he had many of Carter's problems. I think Obama's smart enough to avoid them. He'll make his own mistakes.

Ambinder offers a list of potential McCain Veeps:

1. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
2. Gov. John Huntsman (R-UT)
3. Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
4. Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson
5. Ex-Sen. George Allen
6. Gov. Bobby Jindall (R-LA)
7. Mike Huckabee
8. Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL)
9. Mitt Romney

Carter was a nice guy but a horrible president.

Obama's message isn't "Washington is Broken" but "Let's All Stop Being Such Dicks For a Half-Second, OK?" He's more looking to return the system to some sort of stability than he is in reforming it. (Which makes uh certain folks here see red, I'm sure.)

Haha uh I guess I should say is a nice guy, huh.

ok, HALF my bus on the way to work was vacant. I was the youngest person on the bus, I'm usually in the older half. Obamahooky in effect.

(if I wasn't already caucusing for O, going to work, and knowing that half of the city is going to the rally at noon today, I'd be playing hooky too)

Brzezinski is NOT by any stretch a "dove."

Maybe I'm mis-remembering it, but I thought he took blame for at least a large portion of the economy's woes during that speech.

I'll look into it later.

(xp)

You're right, Alfred. But Brzezinski was against the Iraq War from the beginning (I believe), and he's been pilloried for it.

Walter Karp wrote a few sympathetic essays on the Carter administration - how as genuine insurgents he was regarded with something like contempt by the Democratic Party establishment and was thus doomed to fail. But it didn't help that he and his staff held Congress in such contempt that Tip O'Neil and others wouldn't even return his phone calls by the third year.

the inclusion of george "macaca" allen is a bit o_0, he was on stage at CPAC before McCain, and he'd make a good attack dog but his recent loss and lampooning in the media would make him a huge liability to a GE campiagn, y/n? xxxpost

I think that Sanford and maybe Barbour are leading McCain veep possibilities.

Gook/Macaca '08

Yeah, seriously, it won't be Huckabee. He's one of the few people the right-wing talk-show circuit hates more than John McCain.

Dobson's endorsing Huck!

Barbour!?

Carter's presidency also underlined the importance of the bully pulpit. He was notoriously weak at communication and handled the media ineptly.

Interesting details from the new TIME poll:

The poll also sampled all voters' views of several possible vice presidential choices — and their various impacts on a potential race. According to the survey results, 62% of likely voters want Hillary Clinton to name Obama as her running mate. By contrast, only 51% of the same voters want Obama to return the favor. The same voters, by a margin of 55% to 11%, believed that Obama would help rather than hurt Clinton's chances were he to become her running mate. If Obama tapped Clinton as his running mate, that margin shifted, with 38% saying it would help his chances and 31% saying it would hurt.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1711123,00.html?xid=rss-nation

pretty much nails the "hillary clinton has higher negatives" plank in place, like the press wasn't slow enough to catch on to that

yea, too bad half the voters haven't caught on to that

Barbour!?

-- Rock Hardy, Friday, February 8, 2008 11:13 AM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

!?!?!?

Re: Gov. Gregoire endorsement of Obama.

Perspective: Gregoire isn't a wildly popular governor here, although more respected now than before. I apologize for deferring to racial breakdowns here, but Gregoire is the first high ranking white female in Washington to endorse Obama and is a superdelegate (Dem Senators Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray endorsed Clinton, no endorsement yet from J. McDermott yet), which might send a message to a lot of her otherwise-Clinton-supporting fans of a similar demographic in the state.

Also, far less transparent, endorsing Obama is good for her campaign this year. O being popular in Seattle and relatively *more* popular in more conservative eastern Washington ("Hillaryhate" if you must), especially. Although I'll give her credit and assume she may have endorsed Obama because she fucking wanted to. Gregoire has grown some gonads the past 4 years, and I've liked her more and more over time.

Pawlenty as VP? When your only nat'l recognition is based on the fact that an interstate bridge collapsed after you cut taxes, that's kind of a negative, isn't it?

The GOP hates metal and pavement

naw conservatives love the guy, plus he's young, and he hung on in '06. even the most daring dfl-ers around here arguing that the bridge collapse was the fault of gop 'drown it in a bathtub' policy couldn't blame it on pawlenty outright (correlation not causation)

Gook/Macaca '08

-- Dr Morbius, Friday, February 8, 2008 12:09 PM (19 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

lol

also: funny how being at the wheel when something horrible happens seems to help republican executives, no matter the underlying evidence (see also: rudy, GWB)

xp yeah real actual lol from morbs there!

there were some gwb/brownie style shenanigans surrounding the pawlenty administration and THE GREAT KOLLAPSE -- his transportation secretary was off on some dubious junket to a warmer clime and didn't come back for a week and a half (or something). but this is all pretty deep in the weeds... bottom line is yes he'd be a strong veep candidate. he's got all his hair, can tell a joke, and is in no way a "maverick."

and i'd be happy to have him leave mn for a while and go lose an election! adios homie

oh, yeah, McCain in Seattle too, but it's a closed fundraiser at the Westin hotel for just three hours.

WHY GOP AFRAID OF SEATOWN?

LOL @ gregoire growing some gonads, urgent & key for being a competent governor

sorry, proper link

LOL @ gregoire growing some gonads, urgent & key for being a competent governor

you disagree?

I'll admit "growing some gonads" is a goofy phrase... but.

pawlenty is a such a douchey little ferret u guys have no idea.

McD's/Polenta '08

you disagree?

Strongly

Ok, I really don't think much of this list.

1. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) - leading CW candidate and very good possibility, but my instincts say he's gonna look elsewhere. Pawlenty's politically skilled and just the right age and very well targeted at the people who decide these things and could help make a serious push in a key swing region, but I think McCain alone does pretty well among indies and he might be more concerned about getting his base out than going the extra mile to cross over, and anti-war feeling in the upper midwest might make it harder to swing this year. Still he's undoubtedly on the shortest list.

2. Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT) - a Mormon from the State upstairs from McCain's? Who was born in Silicon Valley? Whose daddy was a millionaire? Are you nuts? I guess he might make sense if McCain wants to make a play for California while taking a risk in the South and writing off the Northeast. Which I seriously doubt. Of course, McCain is nuts.

3. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) - a pretty good possibility I'd forgotten about, he's distanced himself from Bush and close to McCain, but is an evangelical with social conservative cred and has a bit of that indefinible daddy party image without seeming scary or unattractive. Also a business guy and would have some upper midwest impact while appealing more to the South than Pawlenty would. He's 8 months older than Obama.

4. Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson - I know they're friends and he's a real Southerner with conservative cred and the tv thing gives the ticket a little more sheen, but come on, two old, tired-looking and sleep-inducing white guys? Not gonna happen.

5. Ex-Sen. George Allen - Macaca.

6. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) - I know he's sold in LA, and is a conceivable future-of-the-party-type figure, but future is the key word here - he's only 5 years older than I am - and I'd seriously doubt his wider appeal in the South and West where people don't know him yet.

7. Mike Huckabee - Yeah, he'd lock in the Southern evangelicals and appeal in the upper midwest, but McCain isn't gonna scare/write off the business/insider wing of the party and some of his indie cred.

8. Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) - very popular executive in a semi-key State that's semi-Southern, but too moderate and isn't he, you know, gay?

9. Mitt Romney - well, business experience would help and he's got cred with the biz wing/insiders, who count for a little more than the relgiious nuts, but somehow I don't think McCain's gonna totally ignore them either. The enemy and the fake? No.

My additional possibilities...

Gov. Mark Sanford of SC - a business guy who doesn't seem too Wall St, real Southerner but not a hick, young but not too young, attractive but not too pretty. He didn't endorse this year, but chose McCain over Bush in 2000, and shares his fiscal discipline/anti-pork ideology, and has a bit of a libertarian streak. I'd guess that he's on the short list.

Gov. Haley Barbour of MS - solid conservative and Southern and intra-party credentials, quite possibly such that he could hurt McCain's crossover ability, but the Katrina response could be played to soften his image and give him wider appeal - a few black Dems including Clinton's Ag secretary endorsed him for re-elect. Also, he's somewhat personable and energetic even if he's gross to people like us, and would probably help in at least the lower Mississippi (AR, MO), and perhaps further up (IA).

Kay Bailey Hutchison - Southern woman with biz background and would be argued to have more experience than Hillary, who she's also older than. Conservative cred, but I think her abortion and immigration record would be too problematic within the party. Also, even if she's got exec experience, I think he'd be discouraged from picking a Senator even from a relatively safe R state.

Tom Ridge - not strong Southern or ideological conservative cred, but I don't think he'd piss too many people off either, and has serious homeland security and economic and executive experience that would reinforce the Daddy party-ness of the ticket and appeal to the Wall St crowd without scaring really anyone. Don't count him out.

Colin Powell - fuck you, Barack. It wouldn't please the conservatives or the racists, and it's a pretty unlikely choice (they're both in their 70s, tho the year-younger Powell seems more vigorous), I admit, but come on, you think that ticket wouldn't be hard to beat?

I think you could pretty easily take down Powell for helping build the Bush administration's case for war while not having the balls to express his reservations publicly.

Ridge would also help lock in OH, seriously contend if not gain the upper hand in PA, and make a play for NJ, perhaps especially against Barack.

Powell would never accept.

xp Daria, do you know anyone who was happy with Gregoire before and after her barely-election in 2004?

Yes, I realize that you don't HAVE to "grow gonads" to be a competent governor, but since this was Gregoire's first term, and she won by literally a hundred votes (which is always a case for speculation), she had to prove herself, and slowly but surely she did. The latter is my definition of "having grown gonads". Does that make my point clearer?

hmmm a powell pick seems to me like a bigger fuck you to the bush/neocon legacy, while simultaneously looking like a desperate bid to steal some obama gleam... still, the much vaunted 'independent voter' would be getting a lot of attention, wouldn't he

You guys are being great GOP strategists, I have to say!

(Not meant to be snarky, just... interesting observation.)

John McCain (D-AZ)

xD

haha, fox news has made that exact "mistake" before with someone else, can't remember right now -- it was within the past year or so

Oh! Of course: it was creepy congressional page-hound MARK FOLEY

lol

maybe Ambinder's right to ignore non-edge-Southerners, tho - I guess if you look at polls, McCain still wins easily in the really red states