2008 Primaries Thread

It's a strange world out there, Mackro. Threw up a few more links similar to that in my muttered thoughts on yesterday. If you REALLY want to boggle/fear/laugh, 'enjoy' the folly that is Polipundit.

Right now I'm waiting on what happens at CPAC tomorrow. That should be a doozy. Sadly, No! is supposed to be reporting on it as it happens.

"mommy hillary" and "saint obama"...nobody anywhere actually thinks those things, or is voting for those reasons.

Are you familiar with college students, lib bloggers, or whoever those People in the Street are found every week by NPR?

okay so who actually won more delegates yesterday, C or O? (two numbers would be nice - one w/ super-d's and one without) i keep reading different things.

Are you familiar with college students, lib bloggers, or whoever those People in the Street are found every week by NPR?

well you clearly aren't.

ahh maybe i read that clinton's ahead overall w/ delegates but that obama won more delegates on 2/5?

Delegates are still being counted, too, although the estimates look like Obama won more yesterday.

morbius are there any active politicians you like or respect? what are the policy goals you want a new president to enact?

CNN is reporting that Obama is ahead in the total delegate count (altho in terms of yesterday's primaries, Clinton won more than he did). I haven't seen anything refuting that?

Michael, were you ever alive to feel that we had a remarkable presidential candidate ever? Asking earnestly.

Jefferson-Adams?

Have there been any recent polls for LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, and VA?

xxpost - maybe the problem is that i've been reading articles that were posted at various times since last night that may not have the most accurate and up-to-date counts

Meanwhile, the wit and wisdom of Glenn Beck, from a commenter over at Balloon Juice:

I’ll just paste the same email I sent out to my buddies.
I listen to RW radio during my mornign and evening drive, just to hear what the carzies are up to.
My synopsis of Glenn Beck, 2/6/08:

Oh man.
I spent the AM listening to the Glenn Beck show, post-Super Tuesday.

If you didn’t listen to right-wing radio this AM, you missed some
great schadenfreude. Put it this way: it started with Beck saying
that conservatives have three choices now: “to park the car in the
garage with the engine running; to try to understand just HOW this
happened; or to rally round McCain like a bunch of good little
puppets—AND I’M NOT GONNA DO THAT”

then there was a diatribe about how Beck had been “so wrong” about
George W. Bush being a conservative, listing W’s crimes against the
party in a voice that grew louder and louder with every bullet point,
until he was practically shrieking.

After a brief rant about midgets (apparently, by beck’s own account,
he melted down on CNN last night), Beck went on an uninterrupted 15
minute rant about “what I believe as a conservative”. When I pulled
into the parking lot at work 20 minutes ago, he was still going and
for all I know he’s STILL losing his marbles. The best part was that
nothing he said made sense. It was like listening to one of those
crazy derelict people that walk through Philadelphia having intense
angry conversations with someone who only exists in their imagination.

He was like the crazy cat lady from the Simpsons, or my kid having a
temper tantrum..

I am SO excited to listen to Hannity this evening on the way home. It
is going to be even better.

And by the way, this neglects to mention that just before the “I believe” rant was a rant on “legal darwinism” and something about activist judges updating the constitution and feeding mcdonalds to obese people. I sewar I ma not making this up, and if it weren’t for the fact that Beck’s show wants to charge people to download his show (like someone’s gonna pay $6.95/month to listen to that crap?) I would have posted it verbatim.

No, I don't know what the deal is about the midgets.

im assuming obama wins HI + WA - correct?

Have there been any recent polls for LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, and VA?

I don't know poll numbers but I just read an AP story handicapping the 2/12 races. Obama is considered a lock in DC, likely winner in MD although Hillary has a couple key endorsements, and Virginia will be hard fought

Don't assume Obama wins WA. I think it's going to be a tie, although slightly more likely than Clinton. Meaning, not a win for either.

yea, seattle will be hardcore obama, but i'm not sure about the rest of the state

xxxp I'd guess Louisiana, D.C., and Maryland, too, on the strength of the black population. Nebraska and Virginia are toss-ups. The caucus system seems to favor Obama right now (fewer early votes?), so Nebraska could come down for him. Have no idea about Virginia.

Last poll I saw Obama was up 53-40 in WA.

hahaha i had a dream last nite i was at a cubs game and glen beck got shot.

xxxxp

It seems like the timing is very good here: winning most of the states over the next week could tip the momentum by the time we get to Texas and Ohio, which I figure are currently trending toward Clinton.

gr8080, are you sure it wasn't Rod Beck?

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/pics/0624rodcov-autosized258.jpg

South Florida has the honor of being home to this thing, one of the most toxic blogs I've ever seen.

But we're overstating the GOP confusion. McCain will deliver an address at a conservative thinktank in DC, in an attempt to "mend fences" (not the right metaphor I want to use around brown-skin-hatin' Repubs). Hannity, Limbaugh, Levin, et all will return to the foldd, especially if they keep reminding themselves that HRC is still the favorite to be their opponent.

yeah, otm. i keep saying the GOP 'civil war' will fizzle out. the radio crowd will piss and moan like they have some independence but all in all it's a party that knows how to get in line

Alfred's almost certainly correct. The venting is now, but just for now.

McCain's bunch says their delegate count is higher than guessed:

Speaking with reporters today, McCain adviser Charlie Black said, "To date, we have 775 delegates, Romney has 284, Huckabee has 205. It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them -- all of them -- to get to 1,191. Now you can't do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you'd have to get 100% if the vote to get them all.

"It's virtually impossible for Romney or Huckabee to be the nominee just based on the arithmetic," Black added. "I see it as virtually impossible. I'm superstitious like my boss, I don't want to say anything's impossible, but it's virtually impossible on the arithmetic."

in an attempt to "mend fences" (not the right metaphor I want to use around brown-skin-hatin' Repubs)

roflz

I'm sure the right-wing venting is "just for now" but I still fully expect a McCain nom to essentially depress Republican voter turnout. Just based on whose been voting in the primaries, its clear there's gonna be a lot more Dems goin to the polls in Nov then Republicans.

SurveyUSA for KING

Obama over Hillary, 53-40 - http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=74221038-6d06-4283-bfd3-6054dcc54677&q=45617

McCain at 40, up 15 over Romney - http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=74221038-6d06-4283-bfd3-6054dcc54677&q=45616

Obama over McCain, 55 to 38 - http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=1b3063b5-f7d7-4900-8bf3-c2cbc6a0295f&q=45622

McCain ties Hillary at 46 - http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=1b3063b5-f7d7-4900-8bf3-c2cbc6a0295f&q=45621

their robots may oversample techie Seattleites, but they beat Zogby in California

from the NY Times Caucus blog, Obama not taking the bait on more debates

Mr. Obama said most of that fighting would be done on the ground in the next voting states, not in debates. When asked whether he would accept the invitation from Mrs. Clinton to attend four more debates in the coming weeks, he laughed.
“I don’t think anybody is clamoring for more debates,” he said. “We’ve had 18 debates so far. I think we’ve had 10 more than we’ve had in the last Democratic contest.”
He said he would agree to at least one debate, but noted, “It’s very important for me to spend time with voters.”

but wouldn't a HRC nom more than make up for the McCain Depression?

xp

I'm sure the right-wing venting is "just for now" but I still fully expect a McCain nom to essentially depress Republican voter turnout. Just based on whose been voting in the primaries, its clear there's gonna be a lot more Dems goin to the polls in Nov then Republicans.

I think you are vastly underestimating the power of hillaryhate.

xpost exactly

The fence-mending begins!

No one has fought harder to advance the candidacy of Mitt Romney than Hugh Hewitt, who wrote the book on Romney—literally. As profoundly as I respect Hugh—he’s one of my oldest friends and one of the smartest, most big-hearted people I’ve ever met—I myself was never quite able to buy the argument for Romney. Yesterday, as Hugh continued to use his website, deep into the evening, to hammer McCain while promoting Romney, I began to worry that Hugh might even pull a Coulter, announcing that he’d rather support Hillary or Barack than pull a lever for McCain.

Silly me.

Hugh’s first post of the day today is realistic, intelligent, and gracious—and the very reverse of a Coulter.

Romney and Huckabee ought to begin to note Senator McCain's lead and urge their followers to recognize that if they cannot come back they and their followers will have to come in and join the party's eventual nominee. Senator McCain would do well to make a similar statement though his lead is significant and his collapse unlikely. Putting Humpty Dumpty together again cannot wait for St. Paul....

There are seven reasons for anyone to support the eventual nominee no matter who it is: The war and six Supreme Court justices over the age of 68....When activist judges are more than willing to rewrite rules of long-standing, periods of exile should never be self-imposed "for the good of the party." Exiles can go on a very long time indeed. Ask the Whigs.

Brother Hugh at his very best, which is saying something.

I think you are vastly underestimating the power of hillaryhate.

That's for sure. (Two confirming examples here and here, for instance.)

As for Hugh, even a lickspittle can change his stripes. *flees Dan's wrath*

"brother hugh," ewwwwwww

Ambinder: "As first floated by The Page, I can confirm that, according to advisers to the campaign, Sen. Hillary Clinton is weighing a self-loan in order to finance a competitive race against Barack Obama over the next few weeks."

a self-loan? She's run out of nursing homes to soak?

apparently at the NY Repub lovefest for McCain yesterday (?) our so-not-a-crook ex-senator Fonzie T'Omato sneered something like, "Ya don't want McCain? Wouldja rather have HILLLLLLARY?!"

I think the difference lies with under-60, non-partisan, somewhat culturally liberal but middle to upper class and business/pragmatic-minded suburban/urbanites - Dave Reichert Republicans, perhaps. They prefer Obama to McCain, but aren't so sure about Hillary.

I think you are vastly underestimating the power of hillaryhate.

I'm assuming Hillary isn't gonna win. Partly based on the fact that Dems will realize Obama vs. McCain is a better matchup.

Hold on, I need to recalibrate my racial-stereotype Obama/Clinton vote counter here

static void CountPerson(DemocraticPerson p, ref float[] count)

{

    if (p.Ethnicity == Ethnicity.AfricanAmerican)

    {

        count[Candidate.Obama] += 1.0;

    }

    else if (p.Ethnicity == Ethnicity.Latino)

    {

        count[Candidate.Clinton] += 1.0;

    }

    else

    {

        // caucasian, asian, whatever

        if (p.Gender == Gender.Female)

        {

            if (p.Age >= 35)

            {

                count[Candidate.Clinton] += 1.0;

            }

            else

            {

                count[Candidate.Clinton] += 0.5;

                count[Candidate.Obama] += 0.5;

            }

        }

        else

        {

                count[Candidate.Obama] += 0.75;

                count[Candidate.Clinton] += 0.25;

        }

    }

}

Am I matching you guys right here?

After yesterday especially, I don't think we can assume automatically that Hillary will lose the nom or that she's the weaker GE candidate.

I think its weird that anyone would think I'm underestimating the Hillaryhate, considering that its one (among many) reasons I've always thought she was a shitty candidate and a bad idea for the Dem nom (as noted in this thread and the previous one)

One salient point: Obama, the lesser-known candidate, has now won or come extremely close in the two states that Bush pulled away from us last time.

morbius are there any active politicians you like or respect? what are the policy goals you want a new president to enact?

-- and what, Wednesday, February 6, 2008 1:36 PM (35 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

Still not voting for Shmanesty McCain. Actually thinking about voting for Obama just to help start the process of:

1. cleaning out the party so they can decide what is is they actually stand for

or

2. officially becoming Independent and looking at third party options from here on out (no more Republican voting here)

xp: Feingold

policy: start with reading Israel the riot act and cutting the Pentagon budget by 40%.

msnbc has the delegate count at

obama: 838
clinton: 834

thanks morbius, serious

popular vote in the dem race is within 1% by all counts

a cinema-oriented blogger on a numbing NYT editorial:

"Any candidate, and any party, presuming to unite this country must first unite their own. That is how democracy is supposed to work."

--Pravda

Outside of economics, strictly, I think the biggest achievement of the Bush Administration, 2000-2008, has been to work on a bipartisan effort with the media to pummel our country into a deeper acceptance of idiocy and insubstantiality, and to silence or marginalize those who would speak up in protest. Do so few really notice that all the candidates are using GWB's playbook from 2000? Heal, unite, bring good & honor back to the Oval Office. We're being branded and herded like cattle, and the vehicle for doing so is simply a narrative with a promised endpoint. Have your preferences--express your individuality in the form of your consumer choice for the presidential candidate--but please, folks, do it on our terms.

...Debord may have been a cranky and tyrannical avant-gardist prone to ridicule, but he was nevertheless right, and his condemnatory diagnosis was spot on. The first response: don't stay quiet.

http://elusivelucidity.blogspot.com/2008/02/obey.html

Should we be expecting an imminent Gore endorsement now that Obama fought Clinton to a draw on Super Tuesday?

Tbh, Morbs, that playbook is as old as democracy.

xpost