2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

Also, that suzy is consistently, profoundly OTM over the course of this long, long thread, even if she isn't the only one (just the most consistent/prominent).

uh what? didnt she start posting in this thread pretty recently?

i don't think the religious aspect of the speech has gotten enough attention. it was almost as much about religion as it was about race. all that church talk, bonding over crazy pastors that they love, was a curve ball around the filter of the religious right media. he turned it into a church story. i don't know how successfully, because i'm probably not one of the people it's aimed at. but i think mike huckabee's reaction is kind of telling.

Deej, I have been all over these threads but more intensively than usual in the past week or so.

Elmo, that's the basis of cheap, ironic laughs over here in Atheism Corner, where we have read Bibles an' ting. When you consider that this C21 Jeremiah has beefs, comes from a line of ministers and also has a scholarly, loyal pal called Barack it just becomes LOLtastic. Huckabee knows his Jeremiahs from his bullfrogs and we already know he can do irony.

Lostandfound, I do notice a disturbing 'hmph, he seems like an honest man and a decent person but he still has to CONVINCE ME' amongst undecided white voters whose institutionalized racism is still couched in sentences like 'I'm not racist, but...' Also they do not realise that it's a white privilege thing - they don't feel privileged - to be able to keep moving the goalposts on a black man the way they do, to be able to say 'I liked him but NOW THIS, disappointed ex-Obama voter, he's just One Of Them' or worse, as if they are waiting for a way to be excused from supporting a candidate that all rationality would suggest is the best of the three still standing.

Among this cohort is also a tendency to vilify Michelle Obama for appearing to complain about America when she's so lucky and because of her opportunities she's entitled to zero beefs whatsoever? Fuck off, there is no threshold you pass where you suddenly have too much money or opportunity to tell your own damned country it could be doing better.

<i>To someone who is a citizen of a country that still believes in the separation of church and state (Canada, y'all, in which that remains largely true, thanks be to Whatever)</i>

Isn't the Queen the head of state there? ie head of the Anglican Church?

I doubt that Obama's speech, good though it was, will have much effect where it needs to now, ie white blue collar voters. Giving a speech about race - whatever its content - is ultimately going to have the effect of making him look 'more black' to white people who already have doubts about Obama's supposed 'otherness'.

Zelda, the irony of countries like Britain or Canada being less spun by religion than America despite having a state role for religion (and by giving religion a state role, some here argue that it is effectively ring-fenced) is not lost on ILX. I always explain American religious fucknuttery away to my London neighbours as being evidence of why America historically needed a cordon sanitaire between church and state and continues to do so. Being as it was initially colonized piecemeal by different groups of white religious refugees given to fire'n'brimstone (or not) the writers of the Constitution wanted not just to break with the British tradition but to ensure that no one religion would dominate the new country.

The other point I am keen to address is the privileging of WWC/LMC voters in this cycle, the creation of this spooked demographic frightened of the Other. Sure, they feel this way, but with all the facts in, are they entitled to? No. Obama's speech was right to say this media pandering gets us exactly nowhere as a country. It is totally racist to repeatedly demand Obama delayer himself one step further than any of the other candidates because he is a black man with a pastor whose comments are not as incendiary as their manner of delivery comes across to white ears. I am reminded of the archetypal black candidate running against a corrupt insider who is disproportionately hounded for unpaid parking tickets. It is totally classist to expect that the WWC/LMC voter's doubts will only become more entrenched when these people are also human beings with a boredom threshold and a sense of fairness. There are lots of ways to underestimate a demographic so let's not do it here as it is only March.

Speaking of moving the goalposts, Adam Nagourney now says that Clinton doesn't just need to get as many delegates as Obama. Oh no. Now, he says, Clinton needs also to gain a lead in the total popular vote. But not even that would be enough to legitimize a Clinton nomination! In addition to getting more delegates and the majority of the popular vote, Nagourney decrees that Clinton must beat Obama "soundly" in Pennsylvania "to buttress her argument that she holds an advantage in big general election states." And here I was thinking that this was just about the delegates!

xpost to Suzy

I agree we're in unchartered waters with Obama's candidacy, and we'll just have to see how that plays out. But we've reached a point where Obama felt he had to give a major speech explaining 'blackness', and his own relationship to it. No other candidate will have to do anything like this. It's a dangerous moment for Obama, who up until recently has been (just about) able to portray himself as a post-racial candidate. This could open up his candidacy, but it could ghettoize it as well.

He swiftly followed that speech with a meaty and challenging speech about defense, so I think he realizes what you're saying and is moving on

He may be moving on, the question is whether the media will. Media was all over the race speech, the defense speech, not so much...

It's not just up to the media.

I'm very YAY about two substantial addresses in as many days about concrete things affecting America and its place in the world, with real and challenging ideas about policy. Totally needed.

the world is quite YAY about them too. A politician who seems to believe that there are more important things than politics is an unusual thing to witness, especially when compared to the homogenous bunch of nomarks we have in the UK.

Less YAY about this however: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7305731.stm

Dick Morris on Obama: This too shall pass:

Will the Gospel According to Jeremiah Wright sink the Obama candidacy? Not very likely.

Let’s start with two basic facts:

(a) Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has already won the Democratic nomination. It’s over. Regardless of how the remaining primaries and caucuses go, including Michigan and even Florida, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) can never catch Obama in elected delegates. His current lead of 170 pledged delegates will not be overcome no matter what happens. Even if Clinton beats him by 10 points in each of these primaries, he will still lead among elected delegates by over 100. The superdelegates will not override the will of the voters unless Obama is in jail. They will not let themselves in for a civil war by overruling a black man who is beloved by the young by going over the heads of the electorate and naming the candidate that lost the primaries as the nominee. Regardless of how damaged Obama may be by the Wright tapes, it will not provide sufficient cover or cause for them to do so.

(b) Wright’s rantings are not reflective of Obama’s views on anything. Why did he stay in the church? Because he’s a black Chicago politician who comes from a mixed marriage and went to Columbia and Harvard. Suspected of not being black enough or sufficiently tied to the minority community, he needed the networking opportunities Wright afforded him in his church to get elected. If he had not risen to the top of Chicago black politics, we would never have heard of him. But obviously, he can’t say that. So what should he say?

Speaking of moving the goalposts, Adam Nagourney now says that Clinton doesn't just need to get as many delegates as Obama. Oh no. Now, he says, Clinton needs also to gain a lead in the total popular vote. But not even that would be enough to legitimize a Clinton nomination! In addition to getting more delegates and the majority of the popular vote, Nagourney decrees that Clinton must beat Obama "soundly" in Pennsylvania "to buttress her argument that she holds an advantage in big general election states." And here I was thinking that this was just about the delegates!

"as many Total delegates," you mean, i.e. a superdelegate lead. he's saying she needs all those things to justify her being the nominee despite Obama's unsurmounted elected delegate lead.

Editorial/reaction to Obama's "A more perfect union" speech on Ballerstatus, a hip hop culture/news site by Eddie Huang (founder of Hoodman clothing)

http://www.ballerstatus.com/article/editorialscolumns/2008/03/4303/

I'm very YAY about two substantial addresses in as many days about concrete things affecting America and its place in the world, with real and challenging ideas about policy. Totally needed.

yeah I hope he keeps using this Wright spotlight to make substantive, brilliant speeches on policy before the media goes ADD again.

And here I was thinking that this was just about the delegates!

didn't Nagourney get these ideas from Clinton's campaign? total popular vote is a yardstick they introduced when it became clear she would not catch up in the pledged delegate race.

Yeah, Nagourney is merely relating Clinton advisors' decree goalposts. They're doing the same thing Bill is when he goes to a state and says Hillary can't win unless you guys do it for her - recasting a probable/expected result as a sign of momentum/victory.

i do think if clinton won the popular vote and obama was plummeting in the polls and late primary results that shed have a pretty good argument to make to the super delegates even if she wasnt the pledged delegate leader

its gonna take more than this wright thing to make it happen tho - clinton would just have to dominate from here on out

as it stands now most politicians dem and repub alike seem to agree obamas got longer coattails and a better shot in the g.e. - those perceptions are really what hillarys got to overcome here

obv im not looking forward to watching the clinton slime machine try to bring down obama for the next few months

i do think if clinton won the popular vote and obama was plummeting in the polls and late primary results that shed have a pretty good argument to make to the super delegates even if she wasnt the pledged delegate leader

Right. HRC's strategy is this (tho she wouldn't say she must win the overall popular vote; just show big momentum in the final primaries) and to make Obama so "toxic" that he's considered unelectable going into the Democratic convention.

Obama now joining Clinton in losing indies to McCain.

Burn the witch.

I'm sure HRC's response would be that Obama will come under these same attacks in the GE. But I don't think that's a good answer, at least in terms of the Democratic base. The GOP nominee is expected to attack Obama, so I doubt those attacks would cause the core Democratic base to switch sides or stay home. But when HRC attacks Obama that way, it may cause such resentment and mistrust among HRC's supporters that they will stay home (if not switch sides) in the GE, should Obama be the nominee.

(from ben smith:)

Here's an interesting note from the Inquirer, offering an interesting opening to Obama where he's weakest, with working class white guys: He apparently killed on their bastion, the city's main sports talk radio station.

Sen. Barack Obama called into sports radio 610 WIP this morning, charming the usually rambuctious morning talk show hosts and winning their endorsements.

"People are really swept up," said host Al Morganti. "It's almost like teenaged girls at a concert. It's goofy"

Swept up by Obama's words, the hosts bid him goodbye.

"If there's anything we can do to help you carry Pennsylvania, let us know," said one jock.

Said Obama: "Maybe I can stop by the studio some time." "Could you stop by after you're President?" one responded.

Wait, does anyone even have evidence that Hillary's campaign engineered this as opposed to GOP folk who don't want to face Obama in the GE?

Oh, Barack:

On Friday, March 28, Barack Obama will be dishing and discussing the issues on ABC's The View (11 am/ET) in what the show is billing as a "no-holds-barred" interview.

The presidential candidate last joined the morning show in November 2004 to promote his book. This time around, Obama will be covering a range of topics — from the personal to the political — including his relationship with his wife and family, his recent remarks on race, the Iraq war and his views on religion and life on the campaign trail, among other things.

"I am really looking forward to my return visit to sit down with the ladies of The View," he said.

I hope he chokes Hasselback to death, but sadly I don't see that happening.

Jay Jay French wants to rock. He also wants Barack.

So the Twisted Sister guitarist has rerecorded the heavy metal band's anthem, "I Wanna Rock," which has become "I Want Barack."

French, a lifelong liberal Democrat whose mother campaigned for John F. Kennedy, said Barack Obama, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, has energized a new generation of voters who previously felt left out of politics.

"He has excited so many people," said French, who founded Twisted Sister in 1973, in a telephone interview Tuesday. "He has given sincere hope to people who have been out of the arena for years."

French plays guitar on the track, which features Paulie Z., singer for the band Z02, on vocals and lead guitar. They call the band Jay Jay French and Friends and stress this isn't a Twisted Sister project because that band's members are split on the presidential candidates.

Hurting: I'm talking about HRC's "3AM"-type attacks, but there's some obv. evidence that HRC's also willing to at least let the "Obama Muslim" stories survive (e.g., "I have no reason to believe he's a Muslim"). And she doesn't have to directly raise the Muslim arguments; she can note that they exist and that they make Obama unelectable in a GE, thus indirectly propelling the negative stories about Obama forward.

Dee Snider's already endorsed HRC. A song about Obama would surely represent a shocking volte-face for the crimped crooner.

i do actually think this was the best time for the wright thing to break - they knew they were going to have to deal w/this - weve been hearing abt this guy for a year - nows good when obama pretty much got the nomination sewn up and theres plenty of time for this to play itself out before the g.e.

I wouldn't be so sure Obama has the nomination sewn up, but I get your point.

"pretty much got the nomination sewn up"

I wouldn't be so sure Obama pretty much has the nomination sewn up, but I get your point.

This is basically a contest between two different potential Democratic coalitions - the traditional one in which coastal and northern urbanites seek enough white working class voters in the Northeast, Great Lakes and edges of the south to go three yards over the electoral college line that hasn't worked so well in recent years but is looking up this time due to Iraq and the economy, and an alternative in which we risk losing more of our traditional swingable adjuncts while trying to pass to previously-unfamiliar quasi-libertarian and populist (in the traditional sense) types, particularly in the West and upper midwest/plains states, who have become more willing to look our way with the right guy.

I'm not sure which is the better strategy, though the polls if they can be believed consistently give the alternative a marginal, if potentially riskier, advantage, but I admit to preferring the alternative coalition brand. No offense to those from the racist states. XD

There's plenty of evidence that just because an issue comes up and gets whacked down in the primary doesn't mean it won't come back, zombie-like, in the G.E.

insurmountable pledged delegate lead, destroying hillary in super delegates since super tuesday, winning the florida/michigan situation, lol hueg popular vote lead etc

but dont let any facts get in the way of yr eeyore routine daniel

yah tracer obv these things can continue to do damage - still i think this was a good time to get the initial shock n awe part of the situation out of the way

Wright will definitely come up in the GE, and be a big deal. Lots of things will. There's a big market for reasons to rule out Obama that are socially acceptable to say, like "he's a terrorist."

Mark Halperin has said that successfully casting Obama as the other/non-American is the *only* way for McCain to beat him in the general.

Xp - Hillary can still win despite the insurmountable elected delegate lead.

but dont let any facts get in the way of yr eeyore routine daniel

Don't let my expressing a reasonably-grounded fear get in the way of your snide remarks.

i'm not a mccain booster but i trust his campaign to not actually stoop to those pandering measures. although, i have no doubt there will be 527s sprouting up like fungus to promote fear of a black president.

i take it you've all seen the obama/malcolm x/public enemy mashup video put out by laura ingraham's producer then

srsly daniel 90% of yr post here are like "i think mccain will win"

i think were all well aware of yr generally pessimistic outlook by now

in the future when composing a post that starts like "I wouldn't be so sure Obama has the nomination sewn up" try following it w/one of these "because" then just let it flow from there ok.

hillary's politeness re: the wright 'issue' is coming to a close

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lanny-davis/two-questions-for-senator_b_92386.html

No, he won't personally get his hands dirty.

Daniel, my swing voter sample is now on the fence between McCain and Obama. While I think you are right to be cautious it's a long way from November, and actually still a long way from Pennsylvania.

It's not just the South I'm willing to lose, tho. As long as we do the electoral college dance, I can live without Romneychusetts too.

I've repeatedly set forth the "because" clauses you mention, tho -- like virtually anyone here -- I'm sure you can find counterexamples. And I've repeatedly set forth why I think McCain will win, while admitting lots can change between now and November.

yeah, hillary camp wtf -- what is the substantive distance between hillary's surrogates pressing the meta-concern to undecided superdelegates of how the wright issue hurts to obama's GE electability vs. pressing the wright issue directly to the voters?

We done Huckabee's response to the Obama speech yet?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNwMPNxwHmQ

OK, everyone get some air. We have a loooooong time.

We need more 'coastal elites' to take over the interior West. Here, here's your electoral college.

Jeremiah Wright doesn't know nothin' about burnin' no crosses, Miss Hillary. Unlike the Klan.

They just jumped the fucking shark. Again. Is this Sea World?