Jeremy Corbyn vs Angela Eagle

Is that voting intention Matt? Yes, Ipsos MORI has this astonishingly line from 2007:

20-26 September 2007
CON: 31%
LAB: 44%
LD: 15%

I think it was October 07 when he announced that he wasn't going to call an election and his popularity collapsed and never recovered. And the economic cracks were only beginning to show back then. Given the challenges she faces, a similar collapse in May's ratings is far from impossible, although it doesn't follow that those votes would transfer to a Corbyn-led Labour.

Presumably no more so for a Labour with an alternative leader. Though that would be even more speculative anyway.

Of course, we can never know, but I believe a new PM gets a popularity boost, which would evap if they actually called an election based on "I'm popular right now"

I'm not sure how much credence to give polls after the last general election

Virtually none but a constant in recent polls has been a tendency to underestimate the right-wing vote.

Yeah I'm not making claims for a hidden left vote but there are a lot of potential voters outside the tribal categories now

Are people actually reacting against visible statistics by making protest votes that they don't think will alter perceived trends.

I was trying to remember the term for when a situation is altered by the fact that it's being observed.

QUANTUM VOTING

The uncertainty principle

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Sadiq Khan, the only Labour politician with any actual power, has declined to endorse Owen Smith.

back from two weeks away and is owen smith meant to make angela eagle look welcome in retrospect? he's really been building on that "progressive case for restricting freedom of movement" reputation as a nasty little shit that was my introduction to him two hours after brexit

Owen smith referencing having grown up during the miners strike for his bona fides (in email)

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Does that count as a Corbyn endorsement from Khan though? I vaguely recall him snubbing him after winning the mayoral election - or at least it was reported thus.

I think it qualifies as "not going anywhere near this clusterfuck".

Yes, I don't think Sadiq Khan is any supporter of Corbyn's.

He proposed Corbyn as a candidate for leader in the first instance

I don't think Khan has any truck with Corbyn as leader but he either feels closer to him politically or, more likely, is savvy enough to distance himself from the Blue Labour wing of this contest

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yeah but so did Margaret Beckett and she cried a river about it recently on R4

Are people actually reacting against visible statistics by making protest votes that they don't think will alter perceived trends.
I was trying to remember the term for when a situation is altered by the fact that it's being observed.
― Stevolende, Tuesday, 26 July 2016 12:54 (3 hours ago) Permalink

QUANTUM VOTING
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 26 July 2016 12:54 (3 hours ago) Permalink

The uncertainty principle
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― Le Bateau Ivre, Tuesday, 26 July 2016 12:56 (3 hours ago) Permalink

Except labour is dead no matter whether or not you look

or which way you vote

Bercow has dismissed Malhotra's claims of unauthorised entry into her office, it sounded like bullshit.

Author of Corbynomics continues to slate Corbyn and his team, backs Smith:

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/07/26/there-is-only-one-chance-of-a-green-new-deal-right-now-and-jeremy-corbyn-has-never-been-near-the-idea/

I keep hearing the Malhotra story without emphasis that the supposed intruder was herself female. So hope that's the end of that story and it doesn't gain momentum as chinese whispers like the 'Constituency office' window seems to be getting.

What really isn't a good look is Malhotra's self-victimising behaviour when it is her action that had a member of staff fearing for her job and profusely apologising for doing no real harm to anyone.

I agree, main point of what I said there was that I was hearing the story emerging at the time that people were talking about women MPs being harassed. So I'd be thinking that it would automatically be assumed it was a senior male MP or something that 'intruded'.
It was one of McDonnel's points on Sunday morning that people shouldn't be causing distress to powerless staff. That in the same comment as the appeal to stop tearing the party apart. In fact I think he led from the comment in response to the aide's story coming up in the Marr interview into that appeal.

I agree, main point of what I said there was that I was hearing the story emerging at the time that people were talking about women MPs being harassed. So I'd be thinking that it would automatically be assumed it was a senior male MP or something that 'intruded'.

That's really really dumb... If this was - which it isn't - a misogynist male MP trying to harass a female MP, it would make sense to order a female staff member to do the dirty work.

Please stop playing detective to uncover the truth behind all harassment. It's exhausting.

Please stop electing yourself to being the list police. What you were saying the other night was embarrasing.

Have u guys met

List police?

"Owen Smith says UK cannot scrap Trident while Donald Trump could end up "with his finger on nuclear button" in US."

Well the Trident subs do get refitted in a U.S. naval base in Georgia so would be handy for nuking the states.

What a waste of a good education.

Is the fear that Trump won't start a nuclear war or that he will and the UK will be bound to join in for the sake of it?

Is he suggesting that Trump might attempt to nuke Britain? I genuinely have no fucking clue.

Well teresa won't get her money's worth unless they're used now will she?

it's that the US will enter a war on the Wrong Side, right? and the UK will need to defend the liberty of the free world?

He is just trying to illustrate that not only is he not afraid to press the button he would also have no qualms about nuking the fuck of the US!

which are after all the ideal leadership qualities. Is Trump setting the agenda for sociopathia that new Labour needs to live up to?

Or what is the Smith side being referred to at the moment.

I'm not sure how much credence to give polls after the last general election

― Guangchang, thank you man (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, July 26, 2016 1:21 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Virtually none but a constant in recent polls has been a tendency to underestimate the right-wing vote.

― Matt DC, Tuesday, July 26, 2016 1:32 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

They weren't *that* wrong. They were wrong, obviously, but by about 3% from Labour to the Tories. It's just that when the contest is on a knife-edge that makes a huge difference. Similarly with the referedum - they weren't that far wrong, but when the result is very close to 50/50 then just a small error in the polls makes it look the opposite answer will win. So if the polls say Con 43 Lab 27 then both of those figures might be out by a bit, but you can very safely say that Labour are miles behind.

you don't really need a poll for that

i definitely don't want to neg anybody but i have to reiterate that my my understanding of nuclear warfare says = ownership of a nuke = intent to commit a war crime. happy for nuke apologists to argue otherwise while they're picking the flesh of innocents out of their teeh

He is paying so much lip service to both the left and the right he doesn't seem to know wtf he is saying and keeps dropping klangers, one minute too many immigrants and I'm nuke happy and next he is waxing lyrical about Nye Bevan + his mining town background. He is an absolute fucking ill-disciplined mess and would be a dismal failure in an election imo.

"In a speech at the site of the former Orgreave coking plant in South Yorkshire, the ex-work and pension spokesman will say Labour has a fine history of delivering social justice but must now refocus its efforts on striving for more equal outcomes for all."

I mean wtf does that even mean? Stop discriminating against the hard pressed banking sector?

If Parliament is already on summer break are we going to get as much exposure of him over the next couple of months. Or are we going to get even more as he takes his message, if he can decide what it is, around the country?

Fuck knows, but his numerous verbal gaffes not getting reported on much will be a constant in the media probably.

"In a speech at the site of the former Orgreave coking plant in South Yorkshire, the ex-work and pension spokesman will say Labour has a fine history of delivering social justice but must now refocus its efforts on striving for more equal outcomes for all."

I mean wtf does that even mean? Stop discriminating against the hard pressed banking sector?

I *think* this is getting at a reverse of the Blair "intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich" thing, I'd be pleased all politicians started focussing on inequality as a bad and damaging thing TBH. "More equal outcomes" seems a very loophole-ridden mealy-mouthed way of talking about inequality though.

the whole Blairite project is "finding ways to sound like you care about poverty when you don't want to do anything to end it"

"Banker's Wives Matter"

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