2008 Primaries Thread

also I dunno if I missed any discussion upthread but I was feelin the major schaudenfreude for Rudy last night

is everyone convinced mitt won't win california?

i'm pretty sure that delegates are doled out by congressional district

I am already imagining Chuck Schumer's rationale for voting to confirm Rudy as McCain's AG next February.

McCain = Kerry of the GOP in function, Dean of the GOP in gaffes, except even more fracturing squared.

if mccain considers giving up his all war all the time stance then i will consider being afraid of him (but only if hillary is the nominee)

if McCain considers giving up his stance for the Iraq war in earnest, and mentions wanting to pull out, moreover apologizes for "bomb bomb bomb-bomb Iran", McCain will actually be the most relatively decent GOP candidate for president since I was born, and the idea of his election won't nearly scare the shit out of me.

Of course, if he just SAYS this to get elected, and then does the opposite -- entire possible -- then never mind.

But Shakey's right, although I wouldn't generalize that result as much, but still I think many here are NOT looking at how chaotically fucked the GOP is.

We're scared of a guy who the GOP couldn't hate even more right now, stressing "right now"

We all know McCain suffers BADLY whenever he kowtows to the party line, should that be his campaign strategy. McCain comes off as a dumb old crazy guy. Even John Howard, ex-Australia PM, would do better here than McCain. (in fact, they kinda look the same.)

And this is as good as it can get for a GOP vote. Romney has no chance either. There just isn't anyone on the GOP side who can make the GOP happy. That alone will likely sink the GOP.

I like how Drudge's percentage points barely add up to 90%.

I predict that voter turnout will be huge on both sides and that it will be a close contest.

McCain is a serious threat, but none of these candidates have run in a GE and certainly not against each other, so who knows what things will look like. This will be tight.

I do think Obama is the Dem candidate with the greatest chance of not looking like the same old same-old.

I am already imagining Chuck Schumer's rationale for voting to confirm Rudy as McCain's AG next February.

lol

McCain vs. Hillary would make for the most unlistenable campaign ever - both are horrible public speakers

Otoh the debates would probably devolve into screaming matches. Vince McMahon could be the debate moderator.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/The_Mudcat_lobby_Stop_Hillary.html

Edwards advisor Mudcat Saunders, tribune of the working-class rural white guy, on MSNBC not long ago:

I can't speak for John. I can say this that, you know, being a southerner, being a rural American who's been completely devastated by the trade policies of the Clintons, I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure that he does not endorse Hillary Clinton.

He says it's about NAFTA, and the 22nd Amendment.

i thought someone had said recently that hillary and mccain are actually pretty close? mccain said something like the debates would be akin to the andy griffith show

They'll probably be a lot more like A Face in the Crowd.

if it's obama vs mccain that would seem to play right into the obama's change rhetoric, except that mccain has worked together in a bipartisan fashion which would undercut undercut the other part of his message of uniting/working together/etc.

i luv me some mudcat saunders

guys, hulk hogan has endorsed barack obama kekeke

i thought someone had said recently that hillary and mccain are actually pretty close? mccain said something like the debates would be akin to the andy griffith show

"someone" = bill clinton

did you actually believe that?

McCain too short to be president (5'7")

i'm sure mccain would call hillary an osama-lover in a very friendly, affectionate way

Hogan endorsed Obama? Awesome. Our scorecard now is Huckabee/Norris, McCain/Stallone, Obama/Hulk Hogan. Who is the aging action star brave enough to stand beside HRC?

McCain will never win - evangelicals and racist libertarian types will stay home, suppressing Republican voter turnout. right-wing radio hates him, which is no small thing. If he's the nominee, what it will come down to is how motivated the Democratic voting base is and getting them to turnout, which I don't think is going to be a problem.

No no no no no no no. McCain's problem has always been getting past the primaries; he'll be very strong in a GE, where he can peel off moderate Democrats and independent voters, who are attracted to his independent/moderate/maverick image (an image shaped by McCain's real core constituency: The Nat'l Media).

McCain is winning the GOP nomination only because the field has been too fragmented up to now, allowing McCain to emerge from the pack at just the right time to appear as the real favorite, and GOP voters are going to hold their nose and vote for him. Once McCain is the nominee, look out below (see Rasmussen poll above).(n.1)

________________________________
(n.1) Sadly, Romney's chances are dwindling: I think Feb. 5 is his last stand. And his chances depend almost entirely on how the hard-right axis of talk radio, uber-conservative leaders and pundits assess McCain. If that noise machine really goes after McCain this week, maybe the base rallies behind Romney. Doubtful, but maybe.

he'll be very strong in a GE, where he can peel off moderate Democrats and independent voters

I seriously doubt McCain's ability to do this against either Hillary or Obama. Why would they go for McCain, what does he offer that the Democrats don't? Support for the war? lolz

And why should evangelicals or "OMG MEXICANS!"-types vote for him. He's been on the wrong side of all their issues. All he has going for him is his conservative military "cred"/foreign policy bonafides, which are laughably out of step with the majority of the country.

or do you think it will come down to the "well he's the only white guy on the ballot and I ain't votin for no lesbians or negros" factor

Obama Gameplanning Against McCain

No Shakey, I think it will come down to the "He's a former war hero, who was a POW for 5 years for G-d's sake, he's a moderate, straight-talker who bucks his party when he feels they're wrong: Just the kind of man who America needs now. A Daddy, but a more compassionate Daddy."

And if you think for a second that HRC can draw the right contrast on Iraq with McCain, you're mistaken (I think, tho I hope I'm wrong).

it'll be interesting to see how much the 'mccain is a moderate' canard holds up once the GE comes around, because it's not so much true. he's more moderate than bush but that doesn't make him Specter or something

since when is the Republican party interested in moderates

And if you think for a second that HRC can draw the right contrast on Iraq with McCain, you're mistaken

I think she will essentially lie through her teeth to draw this distinction, emphasizing that she wants to bring home the troops now/regrets her vote for the war/etc (in contrast to McCain). altho yeah psychologically for the electorate it will be do you prefer angry mommy or angry daddy

also I am increasingly thinking Hillary is fucked now and we're gonna be lookin at Obama v McCain

the shitkicker/dirty-dealer/homeschooler axis of the GOP has never liked mccain but they will get on board, it's just a matter of how quickly and enthusiastically

xp shakey i think your radar is off, HRC is in no way fucked

since when is the Republican party interested in moderates.

They're not. But they hate the notion of losing to HRC. And people like voting for winners, and McCain has that glow now.

Romney, not so much. By the way, on the Romney front, I think this summarizes his real problem with GOP voters:

The always delightful Ben Domenech of RedState has written a farewell speech he wishes Fred Thompson had given. Check out Thompson's descriptions of his rivals:

"Rudy Giuliani? Slick cheater. Mike Huckabee? Jesus freak. John McCain? Crazy. Mitt Romney? Woman."

No comment required.

GOP = The Daddy Party. And despite reservations about McCain, I'm convinced that the base will come out to vote for him against HRC. The fear with Obama is, as I said upthread, that he could send Hispanic voters to the GOP, but that assumes a lot of groupwide bias dictating voting patterns (not necessarily a faulty assumption, but a big assumption that may not be true).

He's a former war hero

This worked for Kerry.

think any Dems will "swiftboat" McCain?

This worked for Kerry.

Kerry looked French and windsurfed.

I think many here are NOT looking at how chaotically fucked the GOP is

Emotions right now won't necessarily be emotions later but the amount of screaming vitriol surfacing on various right-wing sites whenever someone says, "We have to pull together behind McCain for the good of the party" is telling -- for now. Early, early days.

Agreed. Let's hope they poison McCain's candidacy over the next week.

yeah i think that shit will be put to bed pretty quick if need be, maybe much more decisively than any clinton-obama animus. sorry to be gloomy!

Kerry protested the Vietnam War, that's why they could Swift Boat him.

That too, yes.

HRC/Carl Weathers?

NO WAIT

HRC/Cynthia Rothrock!

The fear with Obama is, as I said upthread, that he could send Hispanic voters to the GOP

no way in hell is this going to happen. GOP spent too much of the last couple years pandering to racist demogogues re: immigration, and in my latino neighborhood, the local spanish-language paper just gave the highest marks to Obama out of all the candidates (also mentioned upthread).

HRC/Carl Weathers

YES!

An example of the irritated right:

"John McCain can eat shit and die before I pull the lever for him."

And that's just the second comment.

no way in hell is this going to happen. GOP spent too much of the last couple years pandering to racist demogogues re: immigration

Not if it's McCain, Shakey. Otherwise, I agree. See my link upthread about HRC's belief in her supposed "Hispanic Firewall" against Obama, which highlights exactly the same themes the GOP will try and exploit.

If McCain is selected as the Republican party’s nominee, I will not be able to vote for him, any more than I could vote for Hillary Clinton. I will leave my vote blank at the top of the ticket, or find a third party candidate to support

That's a funny article, Ned. But I think here is where lots of GOP voters will break ranks with the blogger, "hold their noses" and vote for McCain, rather than risk HRC as President. But we'll see.

In fact, I will enjoy watching right-wingers rail against McCain over the next few days. Let them be the party in disarray for a week.

its gonna be for more than a week - there are some deep, irreconcilable differences in the GOP right now

Yeah, but if McCain thumps Romney on Super Tuesday, I'm not sure Romney can go on (he has money, but he'll have a string of damaging setbacks).

I think here is where lots of GOP voters will break ranks with the blogger, "hold their noses" and vote for McCain, rather than risk HRC as President.

Thus my comment about how this is the state of things right this second, not necessarily down the road, you see.

what will the lot of you if HRC is the nominee and not Obama? will you hold your noses and vote "for the sake of the party"?

*what will the lot of you do

no we're all gonna switch parties and vote for McCain, smarty