2008 Primaries Thread

Not sure what to make of this, but exit polls show the percentage of Floridians who cast votes in the GOP primary today and are self-described conservatives is higher today than it was in 1992.

So Florida's GOP electorate has moved to the right over the past 15 years. But how does this impact tonight's crucial race?

Unless, of course, Florida's GOP electorate is simply SMALLER than it was in 1992, i.e. the less conservative former GOP voters have gone Dem or stayed home.

In which case that's some shoddy reporting b/c the lede confuses number with percent. Isn't that shit on the job interview test they give you at any newspaper?

Again, don't kill my buzz.

I'm praying for the Mormon here.

Good news... after South Carolina and the Kennedy endorsement, Rasmussen has Obama and Clinton tied in Connecticut. Gonna be an interesting week...

Gah, wrong like. Here it is.

Any good polls on NJ? I'm thinking about doing some GOTV volunteering for Obama this weekend.

EXITS: McCain 34.3%, Romney 32.6%, Giuliani 15.3%, Huckabee 12%...

Uggggghhhhh. . . .

I think the Feb 5th polls are just starting to roll out, this is the first one I've seen lately... but there was a NY state poll last week that had Obama just about tied with Hillary in NYC's districts.

That would be huge for Obama. If it weren't for HRC being a NY Sen., you'd expect Obama to do well there (lots of high-minded, high-information voters).

Welcome to upstate, dude.

the dreaded I-10 Corridor or whatever.

Wow. Only 1.17% in but the Democrats are 2-1 in turnout against the Republicans.

http://i28.tinypic.com/34y6utx.png

NO, NO I DIDN'T

So, with the demise of Rudy--do all his crazed neo-con advisers try to jump on with McCain?

So, with the demise of Rudy--do all his crazed neo-con advisers try to jump on with McCain?

It’d be nice to see Norman Podhoretz teach but he is 76 so I imagine he and his wife, Midge Decter retire.

It appears that Florida has been called for Senator Clinton. A 25% win would not be unexpected.

With the totals hovering around 30% does anyone have an explanation for ‘Other’ receiving an impressive 7%? Is Mike Gravel surging? Mikementum?

I'm shocked that N-Pod is such a force after Alfred Kazin, Gore Vidal, Hitchens, among others, have revealed him to be such a humorless windbag.

I’ll answer my own question. Mike Gravel has actually received 2.7% of the current vote! The other 4% were confused voters, Senator Biden, Governor Richardson, Congressman Kucinich and Senator Dodd.

Why are CNN and MSNBC saying McCain's ahead, and predicting dire things for Romney, while Drudge has Romney ahead?

This is maddening.

ROMNEY YOU FUCK COME ON

For some reason Drudge has consistently gotten faster numbers than AP. Either way, Romney is down 2% and about 20,000 votes.

This is going to swing for McCain. Miami-Dade and Pensacola have yet to fully come in and both are heavy McCain counties.

Sadly, that's probably right.

In which case that's some shoddy reporting b/c the lede confuses number with percent. Isn't that shit on the job interview test they give you at any newspaper?

if doctors or lawyers or engineers made the same mistakes yr avg national political hack makes on a weekly basis they'd be in jail

You’re a Romney supporter? Or do you just want the Republican to be stuck in a haze? Sadly I don’t keep up with this thread and have no idea on peoples various affiliations.

Republicans stuck in a haze.

Republican haze + mortal, unshakable fear that McCain is the one guy that can win for the repubs

Well on that note, it is possible that Mike Huckabee might surpass Rudolph Giuliani in few minutes. Walton, Jackson, Washington and Calhoun have yet to report.

Yeah, McCain has some vulnerabilities, but if he's the GOP nominee, I think he wins the GE.

MITTMENTUM:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/29/us/florida_337_7.jpg

Go Huckabee! Sow the seeds of discord and confusion! Suffer the knuckle draggers to come unto thee. Feed the multitudes upon nothing but a couple of crusts and a rancid fish. Fear not, for the prayers of many ride with you.

Before primary season I was convinced that Senator McCain would be unbeatable in the general election but the more I think about some of the possible Democratic tickets (e.g. Senator Obama/Senator Hagel, Senator Clinton/Wes Clark ticket or hell, Mayor Bloomberg/Senator Hagel) the less I’m convinced.

He's not unbeatable, but he'll be the prohibitive favorite, esp. against HRC.

Yeah I'm by no mean sure he could win, he's just the only guy on the GOP side that I think is capable of winning.

As I've said, HRC v. McCain pits a candidate who will energize her opposition and alienate broad swaths of voters v. a candidate who will hold his voting block (for fear of an HRC win) and peel off independents and moderate Democratic votes.

Not a good dynamic.

Senator Clinton not being able to win against Senator McCain in the general election is a Rovian falsehood, one that I’m surprised so many Democrats have bought into.

Any Democrat can run and win without an independent majority in this election. I have every reason to believe at risk states (e.g. Ohio, Minnesota, Florida) will have record Democratic turnout making independents a moot point.

I’d be a bit more worried about Senator Obama as we have yet to see him campaign on policy but I’m still fairly confident Democrats will rally around whomever in big numbers.

"Mr. Obama has lined up support from unions representing plumbers and pipefitters"

huhuhuh

As I've said, HRC v. McCain pits a candidate who will energize her opposition and alienate broad swaths of voters v. a candidate who will hold his voting block (for fear of an HRC win) and peel off independents and moderate Democratic votes.

I’d agree if the Republicans were inspired by any of their candidates and thus far they have not.

Too much voting. Too many typos. Too much drinking.

Wait and see.

(xp)

"Could you turn the sign the right way, please?"

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/29/us/clinton_337.2.jpg

ned i'm surprised you haven't started a "post pictures of upside down signs" thread

This is more my speed:

STARSBUCK COFFEE

lol "me ball sack" thx ned

Go McCain, beat Mittens. Still think Mitt is a stronger candidate in the GE

daria you are going against a whole year of polls telling you otherwise, fyi

Go McCain, beat Mittens. Still think Mitt is a stronger candidate in the GE

Yes, but you think HRC is a stronger candidate than Obama. . .

Uggggh. Daria gets her wish: McCain wins Florida.

I sure hope you're right about him being a weak GE candidate.