2008 Primaries Thread

haha, hire me as a campaign writer!

Daniel, it's understood.

I got hit in the gut when Kerry BARELY lost. Yes, BARELY. In retrospect, we all say "Kerry went down big time". He did go down, but not BIG TIME!

And it's good to not assume either side has a shoe-in for the Presidency, but all the despair and worry that "Oh, now the GOP is DEFINITELY going to win" talk here whenever a Dem farts is, frankly, really fucking funny.

Eppy - McCain is NOT nice! That's the whole point! Everyone who thinks HRC is "like a total bitch" is definitely not going to like McCain either.

McCain loses a portion of her base, Hillary maintains hers, and they split the independents. Hillary wins.

"This is the biggest fairy tale I've ever heard!"

I hate McCain, actually, but honestly, aren't the people who think Hillary's a bitch exactly the kind of people that will like McCain's soft-spoken war hero schtick?

I got hit in the gut when Kerry BARELY lost. Yes, BARELY. In retrospect, we all say "Kerry went down big time". He did go down, but not BIG TIME!

Some of you thought John Kerry would win the 2004 Presidential election. That's because you looked it up in the polls. I looked it up in my gut, and it told me Bush would win. And he did.

Everyone who thinks HRC is "like a total bitch" is definitely not going to like McCain either.

I think a lot of the people who hate Hillary for "being a bitch" might go for McCain because a lot of the things she gets chided for are much more palatable in a male candidate.

I think the latent concern here is what will happen after the election. A Dem's gonna go into office with at least three gigantic problems to face, and it would be a lot better to blow in on a wind of party unity and domination than grudging better-of-two-evils acceptance.

Nicole otm

xpost

xp

and in 2004 they hooked up the steal-a-vote machines in Ohio, as they will again.

Eppy, Nicole - No, they're not exactly the same people, although some do exist.

There's this thing called "the silent undecided" that -- get this, NONE OF US IN THE BLOGOSPHERE REALLY KNOW -- that has been a factor in elections, surely, since 2000.

"unbecoming a President" sounds like a danielle steele novel - good title

so does, you know, the lewinsky story

Also, I have a selfish objection in that I'd much rather keep Hillary as my Senator until she drops dead than to have her as a 4/8-year pres.

xpost I'm not in the blogosphere, dude.

Do I need to say that I despise his tone – the self-pitying lilt he gives his words

that's fine, but that doesn't mean he's being nasty or hitting below the belt - this is such totally standard-issue give-and-take it's pretty crazy the way some of you, and many elsewhere (in the pundit class) have reacted

Eppy - ILX is an honorary lifetime achievement comunal blog with all comments and no entries.

Also, "there are a bunch of people who we don't know what they're going to do!" isn't an argument for either side.

Exactly! The either side part is important.

Yet, here we are in the lol primaries thread debating about not making arguments

http://www.solarnavigator.net/films_movies_actors/actors_films_images/jeff_goldblum.jpg

THE SILENT UNDECIDEDS, YOU FOOLS!

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

I think we have a Screaming Lobster Of Hope source pic!

McCain loses a portion of her base, Hillary maintains hers, and they split the independents. Hillary wins.

Seriously, I hope you're right, but I think this is way off. Reformulate it: McCain doesn't inspire hatred in Democratic voters, but HRC inspires hatred in GOP voters. So the GOP turns out overwhelmingly to bar her from winning the GE (even those who don't like McCain hold their nose and vote for him). Meanwhile, McCain -- moving to the center, where he's more natural -- peels off independent votes and lots of Democratic votes (obv., many Democrats don't like HRC, and more won't after this bitter primary is over). McCain wins. Easily, I'm afraid.

It's the glasses.

hey no need to be nasty, Mackro

I just don't see the GOP being inspired by ANYTHING at this point!

You guys don't have to look at right-wing blogs, but if there's any time to see the amount of desparation there, NOW is the time to have a gander at it.

Tracer -- ??? As in Ms. Jackson?

McCain is NOT nice! That's the whole point! Everyone who thinks HRC is "like a total bitch" is definitely not going to like McCain either.

you're dreaming

I think a lot of the people who hate Hillary for "being a bitch" might go for McCain because a lot of the things she gets chided for are much more palatable in a male candidate.

true of many. for others, it's that McCain's meanness plays as the complaint of the regular Joe, while Hillary's plays as the contempt of the elite.

I think you're really discounting the amount of hatred on the right for McCain, to say nothing of the general feel of defeatedness on the right now. Again, I think Obama would do better, but look, the GOP had to acheive a record high level of turnout in 2004 to beat John friggin' Kerry. Faced with a (despite the evidence here) beloved figure on the left like Hillary, the Dems are going to at least maintain their levels, and no matter how much the right hates Hillary, I just don't think they're going to get their turnout even higher.

attention people perplexed by the notion that john mccain is popular - please refer to the multiple national polls showing him beating all democrats, kthxbye

I mean, Bill won in much less felicitous circumstances, and he's almost as hated as Hillary.

i'm not afraid of him, but the idea that this will be a cakewalk is just wrong

TBF the Dems haven't started taking shots at McCain yet.

Bill won against spectacularly weak opponents

Just say "Guys who hate women are going to vote for McCain" if that's what you're hinting at, guys, and be done with it.

Now what?

gabb - what the hell do polls mean in January 2008?

We haven't even had Super Tuesday yet, and here you are saying McCain is the prospective winner.

???

Much like, say, KERRY was the prospective winner about four years ago.

we're not calling him the prospective winner, we're saying don't discount him out of hand.

no one is discounting anybody in the Top two of either party right now.

(for once)

We haven't even had Super Tuesday yet, and here you are saying McCain is the prospective winner.

True! MITTMENTUM!

Oh, I would love Mittens to win the nomination.

I also think Romney would make the least-objectionable President of the GOP contenders.

I'm actually hoping Guiliani wins Florida, just to fuck shit up more for the GOP.

by the way guys, if I'm coming off as aggro, it's just rhetorical aggro. I'm not angry at anybody here or anything. Apologies for the browbeating style.

if you're an independent, are you gonna vote for the pro-war anti-health care guy, or the anti-war pro-health care lady?

its unlikely independants would frame those issues that way (er would have the issues framed that way for them).

i am scared of mccain cuz i want a dem administration, but i am skeptical that he can get the nom.

I'm actually hoping Guiliani wins Florida, just to fuck shit up more for the GOP.

-- Mackro Mackro, Friday, January 25, 2008 7:18 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

yes

Apologies for the browbeating style.

Well, you hurt my feelings. But I'll try to go on.

I'm actually hoping Guiliani wins Florida, just to fuck shit up more for the GOP.

-- Mackro Mackro, Friday, January 25, 2008 7:18 PM

totes

hey, Daniel, did you notice the traffic on Calle Ocho the other day when McCain stopped by Versailles for his cortadito?

ALS, do you live in FL?

Well, you hurt my feelings. But I'll try to go on.

Did I? Tracer said I was being nasty, so I was just clarifyin'

I think Daniel was riffing on Hillary.

Actually, I think Iran is going to hurt McCain more than Iraq will.

Then again, Iran could potentially hurt any candidate. But Iran is an incredibly important issue here, at least for the election.