2008 Primaries Thread

http://static.px.yelp.com/bphoto/bdPAXw6aSXPUS5X8tcSb6w/m

http://files.blog-city.com/files/aa/2370/p/f/bill_clinton.jpg

http://www.newsday.com/media/thumbnails/photo/2006-08/24880490.jpg

http://www.midsouthwrestling.com/jydrip.jpg

gabbneb can you point out any of these nasty things that bill clinton has said in order to help secure the democratic nomination for his wife? examples would help here

in any case, i'm shocked, shocked that there is politics going on in this presidential campaign

i like bill becoming a bigger issue because it highlights the whole banana republic-ness of hilary fo prez.

not that she is w/out merit, but it is a but for cause of her candidacy imo

banana republic?

OK, stepping back a bit. (Hat tip to Ned via off topic chat we had recently.)

Do you guys think there's a chance that either HRC or Obama would lose a 2004 election blue state?

The only one I can see *maybe* going back to red is Wisconsin. But there are more red states that are far more vulnerable to turning blue than vice versa.

Do you guys think, given today's context, that Clinton or Obama will be less popular than *Kerry*? And Kerry still got 49% of the electorate.

All HRC or Obama will have to do is secure the blue states from 2004, and gain one more -- say, New Mexico -- tadah, Democratic presidency. If they lose a blue state, ok, Colorado? Nevada? Virginia? I mean, *if* Florida goes blue this year, which is entirely possible, the Dems are walking in regardless.

Yes, I know there's more to this than just getting a Dem in the Whitehouse. We're voting for personalities, yadda yadda yadda.

Ned brought up the SCOTUS issue. There are many people hanging on to life literally on the left leaning side of the SCOTUS bench. *FOR THIS ISSUE*, I could give a shit if it's HRC or Obama who's president. I don't want more asshots on SCOTUS for the rest of my fucking life. This is the least mutable thing about our country. It's really important to me, personally.

Anyway, back to primary minutae and Daily Kossing.

i take it you haven't heard, tracer, about barack 'fairy tale' obama?

that is a very cute lobster, Alfred

taking sides "the whole banana republic-ness of hilary fo prez" vs "but it is a but for cause of her candidacy imo"

The Screaming Lobster of Hope

photoshop plz lolxxxxxps

Tracer, you're on this thread, therefore you presumably follow the races. If you haven't heard or read B. Clinton's remarks, get off this thread.

cryinglobster.jpg plz

Do you guys think there's a chance that either HRC or Obama would lose a 2004 election blue state?

I think McCain would threaten in multiple blue states, and that Wisconsin might be less of a worry than some others

Do you guys think, given today's context, that Clinton or Obama will be less popular than *Kerry*? And Kerry still got 49% of the electorate.

No, of course not. But the opponent will be more popular than Bush.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/raising-mccain/index.html

So how seriously can we take a poll showing Senator McCain running ahead or even with Senators Obama and Clinton? While voters want change and favor the Democrats and their positions, a Republican candidate who is seen as an agent of change and not strongly associated with orthodox conservative beliefs could put up a strong challenge to a Democrat in November.
In a national Pew survey conducted in January, voters were asked to judge the political ideology of President Bush and each of the leading Republican and Democratic candidates. While President Bush, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney were placed on the far right end of the ideological scale, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani fell in the middle — where voters placed themselves. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were considered liberal — and placed about as far to the left of voters as President Bush was to the right.
...
But to some extent these strengths are a problem for John McCain in gaining the Republican nomination. The Pew survey found that Republican voters do not think Senator McCain is conservative enough. Ideological ratings of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee fall pretty close to the ideological self-identifications of the average Republican voter. And in many closed primary and caucus states, these are the only voters who count.

(Check out the results of where voters place themselves. Actually to the right of moderate.)

tho Clinton certainly would be less popular than Kerry with certain parts of the electorate on the other side

I think it's highly likely a Dem will be our next Pres, but assuming that it's going to happen makes it less likely to happen.

No, of course not. But the opponent will be more popular than Bush.

How so?

I think it's highly likely a Dem will be our next Pres, but assuming that it's going to happen makes it less likely to happen.

How so?

(Check out the results of where voters place themselves. Actually to the right of moderate.)

looking at the results of elections over the last 60 years will tell you the same thing. yet people still live in this dreamland where the great left-thinking public keeps rejecting the Dems because they are insufficiently ideological.

btw I'll pay $2 to anyone who designs a Screaming Lobster of Hope graphic.

I know Bush is really unpopular, but have you guys even checked out one of the GOP think tank sites recently? Talk about tension and despair.

"just a bunch of dumb old white guys"

You may disagree, but Bush, as unpopular as he is, is still a more likeable dumb old white guy in the GOP than the current GOP runners. (And Huckabee is an android planted to fuck things up for the GOP, I'm convinced.)

"First it is factually not true that everybody that supported that resolution supported Bush attacking Iraq before the UN inspectors were through. Chuck Hagel was one of the co-authors of that resolution. The only Republican Senator that always opposed the war. Every day from the get-go. He authored the resolution to say that Bush could go to war only if they didn't co-operate with the inspectors and he was assured personally by Condi Rice as many of the other Senators were. So, first the case is wrong that way."

"Second, it is wrong that Senator Obama got to go through 15 debates trumpeting his superior judgment and how he had been against the war in every year, numerating the years, and never got asked one time, not once, 'Well, how could you say, that when you said in 2004 you didn't know how you would have voted on the resolution? You said in 2004 there was no difference between you and George Bush on the war and you took that speech you're now running on off your website in 2004 and there's no difference in your voting record and Hillary's ever since?' Give me a break.

"This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen...So you can talk about Mark Penn all you want. What did you think about the Obama thing calling Hillary the Senator from Punjab? Did you like that?"

"Or what about the Obama hand out that was covered up, the press never reported on, implying that I was a crook? Scouring me, scathing criticism, over my financial reports. Ken Starr spent $70 million and indicted innocent people to find out that I wouldn't take a nickel to see the cow jump over the moon.

"So, you can take a shot at Mark Penn if you want. It wasn't his best day. He was hurt, he felt badly that we didn't do better in Iowa. But you know, the idea that one of these campaigns is positive and the other is negative when I know the reverse is true and I have seen it and I have been blistered by it for months, is a little tough to take. Just because of the sanitizing coverage that's in the media, doesn't mean the facts aren't out there.

(Check out the results of where voters place themselves. Actually to the right of moderate.)

looking at the results of elections over the last 60 years will tell you the same thing. yet people still live in this dreamland where the great left-thinking public keeps rejecting the Dems because they are insufficiently ideological.

-- gabbneb, Friday, January 25, 2008 6:32 PM

^ yezir

I could Photoshop something, but it'd have the Obama campaign logo in it, is that OK?

No, of course not. But the opponent will be more popular than Bush.

How so?

cos bush was immensely popular with a sizeable subset of conservatives but massively unpopular with dems and many independents (enough to catapult a moribund kerry campaign to 48%).

I think it's highly likely a Dem will be our next Pres, but assuming that it's going to happen makes it less likely to happen.

How so?

i will cite precedent in the case of tortoise v hare

HRC's campaign is likely to out-Rove Rove, guys. (stressing "likely")

I'm not saying we should assume a Democrat will be our next President. I'm just saying that, you know, the reverse-Kerry-lost effect is really making you guys seem far more paranoid than you need to be, that's all.

alfred i'm kind of stunned that you're ordering me off this thread when you won't even cite one example of bill clinton being "nasty" to obama

the extract above is what most people appear to be worked up about, have taken as evidence that bill is "nasty" and an "attack dog".. but look at what he says. is that really it? is that the best you can do? i'll keep an open mind that there is other stuff out there bill clinton has said that is actually nasty, below-the-belt, etc etc but until you put up, please drop the imperious martinet act

Eppy, if McCain wins the GOP nomination, I think he'll be the heavy favorite (especially over HRC; sorry, Daria).

(xp)

you know what guys? i think hillary's just... i dunno, too ambitious. she seems ruthless. something about her voice.. just rubs me the wrong way.

Yes, and apparently she is a murderer, too!

(Kidding, kidding).

Mackro seems to be shouting into the wind a bit here.

where is the pinefox in these troubled times

We haven't seen how McCain will fare in a presidential general election. Does anybody think that over the course of the presidential campaign people could be made to understand that he is not a moderate?

I doubt it, since those juicy little details will all be filtered through McCain's core constituency: The Nat'l Media.

Why is everyone assuming McCain is going to be popular, much less REALLY popular?

The narrative is there. Where's the evidence?

(Granted, a lot could change between now and November. But no one knows what that will be. Probably random petty shit that has a huge effect on one candidate to be determined randomly.)

calling Obama's narrative a "fairytale" when Clinton himself has made bald-faced lies about his "opposition" to the war = uhhhhhhh, not "nasty" perhaps, but deeply hypocritical and disingenuous and unbecoming a President

x-post

Isn't anyone concerned about stripping Michigan and Florida of their primary delegates for moving their primary dates up? It seems like so much red meat for the RNC in the general election: "The Democrats disenfranchised your state in the primary -- Why vote for a Democrat who doesn't value your vote?" I mean, I can see Florida becoming decisively 'red' in the general if the GOP uses that line.

(^^^ referring to Clinton's own claims about being against the war from the start there, in case that isn't clear)

x-post

xpost I went into my reasoning above as to why I think McCain's gonna have basic mathematical problems if he's the nominee.

Elmo, I don't think Detroit is going to vote for McCain just because of a messed up Dem primary. Just a hunch.

"unbecoming a President" sounds like a danielle steele novel - good title

the problem for the Republicans in terms of a McCain nom is that he will suppress the Republican vote because large parts of their core constituencies don't like him

Florida is a concern. But Florida is for the GOP to lose at this point.

I think Dems would be less suspicious of Hillary if the Clintons hadn't demonstrated time and time again that they're far more interested in helping the Clintons than helping the party. Which is fine and understandable and all, but recent events have really played into that feeling.

please drop the imperious martinet act

I like this phrase!

Yeah, the potential for a "disenfranchisement of Florida" meme is troubling me as well.

Bill has also called Obama a "kid" btw

The narrative is there. Where's the evidence?

There's no evidence about how any of these candidates will fare in the General Election, but there are good reasons to fear McCain far more than any other GOP hopeful. Many of them are set forth above. Remember, stalwart conservatives like Peggy Noonan apparently fear McCain somehow slipping through the primaries precisely because he isn't, in their view, an appropriately conservative candidate, which will make him appealing as a moderate/independent/outsider in the GE.

Lots of other reasons, too. I'd have to circle back later to elaborate, tho.

Shakey, significant part of the GOP base don't love McCain, but they'll campaign for him over a Democrat, esp. HRC. And I'm anxious to hear the mathmatical difficulties McCain will face as a GE candidate, Eppy.

calling Obama's narrative a "fairytale" when Clinton himself has made bald-faced lies about his "opposition" to the war

OTM. I was about to unearth this story. Do I need to say that I despise his tone – the self-pitying lilt he gives his words even when he's on the attack?