this thred doesn't do much to quell anxiety
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:47 (eleven years ago) link
O has been dropping like a stOne over at intrade
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
though he's up a bit at the moment
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:51 (eleven years ago) link
Watched a few minutes of gloating Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe offering his cliched conservative rhetoric and talking to Chuck Todd about state polling. One of the good things that will occur if Obama wins, is that Joe and his not always helpful co-host Mika Brzezinski, will have to for a day or 3, at least, be defensive.
― curmudgeon, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:52 (eleven years ago) link
I posted some stuff on that on other threads. I am convinced this is a campaign stunt – or at least one rich dude w/ an agenda. If you are in Europe where it’s easy to get money on intrade you should buy some bamstock. At the very least it will go up before election day and you can sell it then.
xp
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:53 (eleven years ago) link
Adelsons and Koch Bros gaming InTrade? Who knew?
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
The Intrade thing is creepy beyond words.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:57 (eleven years ago) link
if it's any consolation intrade got the supreme court health care ruling wrong
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:00 (eleven years ago) link
cost-benefit of gaming intrade is huge - lotsa people are talking about this, costs as much as some local tv ads or whatever. and timing-wise fits w/ the romney campaign's narrative over the last few days where they act more confident than they did when they actually had better numbers. anyway take my advice and you too can retire at age 40.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:01 (eleven years ago) link
so how big is the market? how much would it actually cost to move it by 10 points?
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:02 (eleven years ago) link
there was no reason to believe that a predictions market would be any better than any other way of predicting what was going on in roberts' head. predictions markets are good at information aggregation - but the best information that exists on this stuff suggests that this is not a 50-50 election. also intrade is out of line w/ other betting markets.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:03 (eleven years ago) link
its really small, ovbs the volume changes but there was an article that suggested you could move it 10pts w/like $15k, its ridiculous the news should stop covering it imho xp
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
well one person did that for romney temporarily w/ 17k and the market ate it back fairly quickly. intrade is small enough that it's obvious when a swing like that is happening. it's less obvious if someone is sitting there doing it slowly. anyway, free money imo.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:09 (eleven years ago) link
intrade also not immune to the biases of the sort of people who think intrade is a good idea.
― Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
i was looking at the contracts for democrats taking all three the presidency senate and house like hmmm cause it was a p good deal but then there were like 3 shares available at that price, especially w/the more obscure bets theres just no one playing
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:16 (eleven years ago) link
yeah the prob is it's a zero sum game
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
there are lots of zero sum betting games people love to play tho
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:20 (eleven years ago) link
this i guess is just not that fun
well it's sorta like the betting market for the super bowl winner is gonna be way bigger than the betting market for how many yards will some rb get in the game. the betting market for president attracts a lot of attention, but house races etc. not really.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
the betting market for how many yards some rb will get in the superbowl is prob 10000x bigger than the entire intrade
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:25 (eleven years ago) link
well it helps that it's *legal* you know. if americans could easily get money on intrade it would be way bigger. I think you have to like, send a check?
I actually made a couple hundred bux on intrade last election when it was obv that the hillary/obama shares were being manipulated.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:27 (eleven years ago) link
did u have to send a check
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:29 (eleven years ago) link
I had a euro bank account at the time
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:31 (eleven years ago) link
ah anyway imho it has more to do w/people not being that interested in betting on politics, there are tons of bookmaking sites where you can bet on this stuff too, also i will vote for any candidate who pledges to bring back online poker
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:37 (eleven years ago) link
ya I mean I am not gonna argue w/ 'americans care more about football than they do about politics'. also are better informed about football. also it's hard to root for election night results in the same way you root for a team to win. but some people might benefit from hedging I guess. can afford a ticket to france if romney wins, if obama wins you don't have to die uninsured.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:45 (eleven years ago) link
ha, ok. i just set up an intrade account
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:48 (eleven years ago) link
It's always been my dream to die in France, so I'm not sure who to root for.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:48 (eleven years ago) link
would u settle for quebec
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:49 (eleven years ago) link
Yes--so I think Gary Johnson's my man.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:50 (eleven years ago) link
to return to the thread's most important post...
also: http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/baseball.html
― dell (del), Saturday, August 11, 2012 7:54 PM
really, I need a site where you don't have to download something that will disable your PC.
― crazy uncle in the attic (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
On further reflection I don't think I'm actually anxious about the election. I think my brain is just producing anxiety chemicals and then I'm using contingency to guess what about.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
im anxious abt the election, also im drinking more caffeine than usual
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:52 (eleven years ago) link
Not anxious about general election. Somewhat anxious about MN marriage amendment vote, as it's dead even now (and I want this one to buck the trend of oops, surprise, +7 in favor of gay marriage ban on election day compared to polls).
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:54 (eleven years ago) link
Not anxious because you're confident Obama will win or because you don't think it matters who wins?
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:55 (eleven years ago) link
I'm anxious thinking whether today the cafeteria will make those mashed potatoes I'm so fond of.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:56 (eleven years ago) link
Do we have an anxiety thread?
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:56 (eleven years ago) link
Yes – every political thread.
Severe Anxiety
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
I bought alfred-college-mashed-potatoes at 58% but the market has crashed
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
youre whipped
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:58 (eleven years ago) link
creamed
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:59 (eleven years ago) link
i sold romney. it felt better than buying obama.
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:02 (eleven years ago) link
hah
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:02 (eleven years ago) link
haha. i haven't been on those kinda sites in a while, but if you click strategically you should be able to avoid all the things that trigger downloads
― dell (del), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:07 (eleven years ago) link
i also put all $5000 of the play $ they give you on mike huckabee
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:09 (eleven years ago) link
wait no i didn't it won't let me. that is bullshit.
nate silver mentioned something about writing about intrade today. I bet the market will move a few points just on that article.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:12 (eleven years ago) link
well i already made 27c, so i'm basically quitting academia as i write this
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:18 (eleven years ago) link
"From 9:57-10:03 this morning, someone pushed the Romney's Intrade stock from 41 to 48. Total outlay was $17.8k, and they overpaid by $1250."
https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/260755924493418496
brad plumer wrote about this yesterday, too
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/
being anxious about the election is playing right into mittsy's plutocratic little confidence game!
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
when you cash out your millions remember where this good advice came from xp
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
oh shiiiii i am down 27c now
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:23 (eleven years ago) link