why did gallup average the results from the 12 states??
because they're polling...our leg!
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
*bows*
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
gallup's been doing a lot of shameless "but if you turn the number thiiiiis way" stuff lately
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
that's a poll of 10/5 to 10/11 fwiw
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
i'm going to charitably assume that gallup disaggregated the results,state by state,and have it on their website, and the USA Today totally botched the story because they're a USA Today reporter
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
Wouldn't an average help Obama? I thought the largest lead out of any of those would be Obama in Michigan or Pennsylvania...I'm not sure.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
And the ABC/WashPost poll had Obama up by 5 in the swing states this morning...so who knows???
― carson dial, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:14 (eleven years ago) link
you could speculate one way or another, but that's the problem - there's a state-by-state polling and somehow we're forced to speculate as to what the state-by-state results could be
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
that would make sense if we didn't have an electoral collage system
Would totally support a collage over this bullshit.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
overall an average would help obama w/ those particular states, but we don't know 'how much of each state' is in that number
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
xpost lol, typos of yore
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe this will make you feel better?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-usa-campaign-poll-ipsos-idUSBRE89E1BH20121015
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
There were some good polls today too, I know. Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point that whoever wins, it's going to be with under 300 electoral votes?
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:21 (eleven years ago) link
Are these broken down by parties for those of us who dont care to crack into the numbers? I wonder how many super pissed off dems affect the polls of the last 10 days or so, if any.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
romney would have to swing things quite a bit to get 300 but that's still well within the realm of possibilities for obama
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
It's certainly NOT a foregone conclusion that Obama will be under 300.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
xp
Likeliest scenario for that is if he wins both Ohio and Florida.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
Ohio yes, Florida not so sure.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:50 (eleven years ago) link
considering how close florida was last time - during a relative landslide - I'm not very optimistic. I guess a lot of old people have died since then (not enough, but some) - and lotsa hispanics arrived. but still iirc 300 is possibile sans florida.
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:54 (eleven years ago) link
It would be running the table with the rest of the states to get to 300 if he loses Florida.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:56 (eleven years ago) link
Not including North Carolina, that is.
those two seem the least likely of the swing states, tho
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
Obama has 265 right now if he wins Ohio. Every single state now in play except for New Hampshire is six electoral votes or more. Romney has to win every single one of them.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:01 (eleven years ago) link
mr. silver re:above
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Looking at breakouts of "swing states" from national polls is just dumb when there are dozens of actual swing state polls out every week.
It's basically a choice between looking at a few hundred interviews vs. thousands of them. Not a close call.
Also, (i) everybody defines swing states differently and (ii) not all swing states are equally important.
Rasmussen's tracker of swing states is marginally interesting since the sample size is OK. But better IMO if they ran a tracker of OH or VA.
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
This Morgan Freeman ad is really good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
Word
Morgan Freeman for president, obviously
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:56 (eleven years ago) link
I actually wish all political ads could be this classy
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:57 (eleven years ago) link
Freeman might have trouble overcoming the "boinking his step-granddaughter" hurdle that has stopped so many other presidential campaigns in their tracks.
― Gyrate For Physicet (Old Lunch), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:03 (eleven years ago) link
but he sounds good! reminds me of someone else, i can't quite recall who...
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:07 (eleven years ago) link
I don't want Candy Crowley in there tomorrow night. I've seen enough of her to know that she is fairly neutral. I want a moderator who's in the tank for Obama.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:15 (eleven years ago) link
lol
― la goonies (k3vin k.), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:24 (eleven years ago) link
conv upthread made me think of ways the debate could be improved and I realized the best debate would be no moderator + no prepared subjects, just throw em up there and let the yelling begin
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
wait maybe it was another politics thread, anyway whatever
ideal debate would be four rounds of rock, paper, scissors
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
rock paper zing
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
for 'zing' you make a z with your hands, zing beats paper but not rock
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:32 (eleven years ago) link
how about a series of escalating uncomfortable situations? romney and obama just have to stand there and deal with whatever comes however they see fit. first some lady walks up to obama and starts calling him a muslim or whatever. then you find an extremist who hates mormons with a visceral passion and throw him at romney. this Religious Confrontation portion of the debate should actually be pretty easy for them as they'll make appeals to tolerance and support each other. but then there's a staged event where someone in the audience is assaulted and it initially appears that one of romney's sons did it. obama is somehow the only eyewitness to the event and is required to testify on stage, but every time he starts to speak his microphone gives off crazy feedback and jim lehrer covers his ears in disgust. then everyone in the auditorium starts making out for a few minutes and the candidates have to figure out what to do with THAT. someone turns the heat up to 84. the clocks are adjusted so that it appears that the 90 minutes have elapsed, which causes confusion because obviously it's only been about 20 minutes or so - or has it?! the debate concludes with a real life fire in the auditorium, and the doors are locked. there's a key that sits in a locked box between obama and romney, but the only way to open it is to answer some sort of trivia question that only one of them would know the answer to. but it's a really hard question so it takes a few minutes and meanwhile people are dying. something along those lines.
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:42 (eleven years ago) link
or, you know, maybe there's a bit where obama realizes that one entire section of the audience is made up of friends and family of innocent civilians he killed
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:46 (eleven years ago) link
Z S otm, great TV at the very least
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
This hypothetical debate is only available on Russian P2P websites.
― Cunga, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
and meanwhile people are dying.
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/qdtG0oiJnJU/0.jpg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:49 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan and Biden are watching this debate together behind a one-way mirror glass booth.
― Cunga, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:51 (eleven years ago) link
ZS is a genius
― ornamental cabbage (James Morrison), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
CNN instant poll reactions coming from audience comprised entirely of bestial brony ex-convicts
― Mordy, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
i.e. Congress
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:55 (eleven years ago) link
wolf blitzer forced to conduct polling wearing sexy comiccon wolf outfit
― Mordy, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:57 (eleven years ago) link
this is the stage and the moderator, but she never asks any questions:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2zizrme.jpg
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 23:02 (eleven years ago) link
lol ZS
― la goonies (k3vin k.), Monday, 15 October 2012 23:03 (eleven years ago) link
Ads to be made from this:http://gawker.com/5951756/all-i-really-need-to-know-about-paul-ryan-i-learned-from-this-soup-kitchen-photo-op
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Monday, 15 October 2012 23:05 (eleven years ago) link