wish romney would start punching himself in the nuts again
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Saturday, 13 October 2012 14:18 (eleven years ago) link
i feel like Romney still pretty consistently says something horribly ill-advised on a daily basis, the "big bird" thing just ended up too silly to be damaging (partly because of Obama's stupid ad) and other things happened at the debate that made that not the main takeaway from it. no matter how safe he tries to play it at the next debate, he'll say some dumb shit that'll probably blow back on him more.
― some dude, Saturday, 13 October 2012 14:28 (eleven years ago) link
Z S a few months ago, forecasting the election: September Mitt looks admiringly at October Mitt.
http://dellioandwoods.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/mitts1-e1329447740242.jpg?w=590
― clemenza, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:30 (eleven years ago) link
tax cuts for sex offendersretirees sent to work in prisonswalks on stage slung w/guitar on which to imitate hendrix' star spangled banner cover for opening statementxp
― *buffs lens* (schlump), Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:30 (eleven years ago) link
He punches himself by insisting on taking any little thing and twisting it and making an issue out of it even if it seems out of character or unrelated to his interests. His *tough stance on Benghazi* just sounds petulant.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:32 (eleven years ago) link
And shallow and not very tough, actually.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:34 (eleven years ago) link
As sure as night follows day (Silver):
Yet some of the plausible arguments that Democrats were making earlier in the week about Mr. Obama’s standing — like that his position would be more robust in the swing states — are looking weaker now.
― clemenza, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:46 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know anything about Silver's predictive numbers, but obviously you can't use math to judge the probability of how well either candidate might perform in a campaign.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 16:06 (eleven years ago) link
Anyway, looking at the current TPM electoral map, Obama wins Ohio and it's over. That's currently assuming he also wins Iowa, but he gets to 270 in this scenario without New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
haha nap time
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeightArizona poll showing Obama leading reminds me a bit of Hawaii polls showing Bush leading Gore late in 2004.
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Saturday, 13 October 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, but really gore had no chance in 2004 regardless
― Doctor Casino, Saturday, 13 October 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
America's not ready for a bearded president
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:02 (eleven years ago) link
i'll grant you that
― Doctor Casino, Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
As proven in 1984:
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3558/3495755012_ca2ce7b8c9_z.jpg
― 50 Shades of Greil (C. Grisso/McCain), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
America wasn't ready for our last bearded president: he served one term
http://www.historyplace.com/specials/calendar/docs-pix/ben-harrison.jpg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
one of my high school teachers made a point about how you never see bearded republicans esp in congress. it's a good tell.
― iatee, Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:33 (eleven years ago) link
Repulicans who use Beards are another kettle of fish...
― 50 Shades of Greil (C. Grisso/McCain), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
"Republicans", even.
http://cinemanostalgia.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/faye-dunaway-network.jpg
It would be a disaster to let this go on another week. By then he’ll be down points and the trend irreversible, if it isn’t already.
We’ve got rumbles from the agencies. Another couple of weeks of this and the sponsors will be bailing out!
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 15 October 2012 14:27 (eleven years ago) link
Ha! Nice analogy.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 14:30 (eleven years ago) link
This is something else that's no big deal, right?
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/usa-today-gallup-romney-has-5-point-edge
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
obviously being behind by 5 points in 12 swing states is not a great thing, but...why did gallup average the results from the 12 states?? that would make sense if we didn't have an electoral collage system, but by averaging them together they ruined about 90% of the informational value.
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
why did gallup average the results from the 12 states??
because they're polling...our leg!
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
*bows*
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
gallup's been doing a lot of shameless "but if you turn the number thiiiiis way" stuff lately
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
that's a poll of 10/5 to 10/11 fwiw
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
i'm going to charitably assume that gallup disaggregated the results,state by state,and have it on their website, and the USA Today totally botched the story because they're a USA Today reporter
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
Wouldn't an average help Obama? I thought the largest lead out of any of those would be Obama in Michigan or Pennsylvania...I'm not sure.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
And the ABC/WashPost poll had Obama up by 5 in the swing states this morning...so who knows???
― carson dial, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:14 (eleven years ago) link
you could speculate one way or another, but that's the problem - there's a state-by-state polling and somehow we're forced to speculate as to what the state-by-state results could be
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
that would make sense if we didn't have an electoral collage system
Would totally support a collage over this bullshit.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
overall an average would help obama w/ those particular states, but we don't know 'how much of each state' is in that number
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
xpost lol, typos of yore
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe this will make you feel better?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-usa-campaign-poll-ipsos-idUSBRE89E1BH20121015
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
There were some good polls today too, I know. Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point that whoever wins, it's going to be with under 300 electoral votes?
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:21 (eleven years ago) link
Are these broken down by parties for those of us who dont care to crack into the numbers? I wonder how many super pissed off dems affect the polls of the last 10 days or so, if any.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
romney would have to swing things quite a bit to get 300 but that's still well within the realm of possibilities for obama
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
It's certainly NOT a foregone conclusion that Obama will be under 300.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
xp
Likeliest scenario for that is if he wins both Ohio and Florida.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
Ohio yes, Florida not so sure.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:50 (eleven years ago) link
considering how close florida was last time - during a relative landslide - I'm not very optimistic. I guess a lot of old people have died since then (not enough, but some) - and lotsa hispanics arrived. but still iirc 300 is possibile sans florida.
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:54 (eleven years ago) link
It would be running the table with the rest of the states to get to 300 if he loses Florida.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:56 (eleven years ago) link
Not including North Carolina, that is.
those two seem the least likely of the swing states, tho
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
Obama has 265 right now if he wins Ohio. Every single state now in play except for New Hampshire is six electoral votes or more. Romney has to win every single one of them.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:01 (eleven years ago) link
mr. silver re:above
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Looking at breakouts of "swing states" from national polls is just dumb when there are dozens of actual swing state polls out every week.
It's basically a choice between looking at a few hundred interviews vs. thousands of them. Not a close call.
Also, (i) everybody defines swing states differently and (ii) not all swing states are equally important.
Rasmussen's tracker of swing states is marginally interesting since the sample size is OK. But better IMO if they ran a tracker of OH or VA.
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
This Morgan Freeman ad is really good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
Word
Morgan Freeman for president, obviously
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:56 (eleven years ago) link
I actually wish all political ads could be this classy
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:57 (eleven years ago) link