romney can only pull 48% w/ this economy + that 48% is overwhelmingly made up of waning demographics + the hardest core republicans already don't even want to be called republicans = there's plenty of room for stuff to happen over the next decade
xp
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:38 (eleven years ago) link
people were freaking out about how awesome palin was though.
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:40 (eleven years ago) link
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
i think a social + economically libertarian republican party could do very well in the future
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
he shot himself in the foot so bad with that libya shit, can't wait to see him do it again and again
― the late great, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
xp you mean democratic party, right?
/morbs
and the obama fear factor the right wing was playing up was stronger. they're still beating that drum but 4 yrs have shown that he's not letting al qaeda into the white house to hang out and plot.
i don't think so xp
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
romney and paul might win, idk. but obama's energizing his base pretty well and the repubs just seem like assholes.
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
i think that's what it will come down to.
nov 6 forecast still at 80% but obama nowcast is now at 91.6%
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:44 (eleven years ago) link
saw a number of Romney signs in yards in Alexandria, Virginia (a mostly liberal town in Northern VA). They were outnumbered by the yards with no signs(the silent Obama majority!)
― curmudgeon, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:45 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, and a 51.2% - 47.5% popular vote landslide.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
that's a landslide?
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
I've seen alot of R/R bumper stickers on cars in Atlanta, which is more or less a Dem oasis in a vast sea of Republicans.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:51 (eleven years ago) link
Atlanta, maybe, the Atlanta metro area not so much so
― Brad C., Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:55 (eleven years ago) link
xp Nah, I'm underlining Tracer's point upthread, that getting 48% of the vote isn't exactly the sign of a party on the decrease. Though some of that is just How Politics Works these days, it's been 28 years since the runner-up got less than 45% of the vote (after you throw out any third-parties).
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
By the estimation of Nate Silver, a "landslide" is a ten percent or higher edge over the opponent.
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
I assume that's electoral votes. Ten percent in the popular vote seems unlikely nowadays. :(
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:59 (eleven years ago) link
That's funny, I was just pondering the other day, here in Atlanta, why I've seen almost NO Romney bumperstickers this close to voting day.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:03 (eleven years ago) link
Even Dukakis was within eight points with 45.7%--and the electoral was 426-111 that year. (Mondale, on the other hand, barely inched over 40%.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:04 (eleven years ago) link
when 48% becomes yr roof, you have a big picture problem, even if you can still win a (democratically unrepresentative) congress on a good year.
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:08 (eleven years ago) link
so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:09 (eleven years ago) link
i saw one but it turned out it said "nobama" and i thought i heard someone say "obama" the other day but they said "fauxbama."
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
If registered Democrats were as likely to vote as registered Republicans, the margin would be a lot wider.
― o. nate, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:11 (eleven years ago) link
In Atlanta? SO MANY.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:14 (eleven years ago) link
Bama, Bama, Bo BamaFaux Bama Fanna, Faux BamaFee Fie, No BamaObama!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MJLi5_dyn0
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:16 (eleven years ago) link
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qilVUxdSdKo/T9qYMQE4QsI/AAAAAAAASYw/rmb3D5ONhvo/s1600/BARRY+CHOOM+OBAMA+VERSUS+MITT+Romney.jpg
this pretty much sums it all up for me
― Spectrum, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link
i wonder if "close" (ie, non-landslide) elections aren't just a permanent reality now--given the media environment, polling, and the mutability of the political parties. they're kinda *too* good to allow either side to really get swamped. the "middle" will just get shifted to wherever certain antagonisms can be best exploited.
― ryan, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link
I think so, pretty much, at least until some huge paradigm shift like another Great Depression.
― The specifics are these, which is those principles I described (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:27 (eleven years ago) link
Our politics have been a binary system for over 150 years now. That's several wars, one depression, many recessions, several Constitutional amendments, among other things. It will take something positively seismic to bump a third or fourth party into prominence.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:30 (eleven years ago) link
Sullivan just pointed to this:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107177/daily-breakdown-fox-news-poll-undermines-romneys-theory-the-race
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:32 (eleven years ago) link
I agree w/ that johnny fever, I just don't think the 2nd party will be called the republican party
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:51 (eleven years ago) link
yeah the GOP will just morph into something else. but the GOP as we've known it since most of us were born is dying and is gonna die within my lifetime.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 13 September 2012 22:07 (eleven years ago) link
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:14 PM (1 hour ago)
so guess what was on the car in front of me when I pulled off the hwy lol
that said I don't feel a lot of passion from either side this go-around, maybe because ppl realize our problems are so deep and long term at this point they can't be fixed in one term - 10 year wars, 5 year recessions
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:03 (eleven years ago) link
honestly i don't see the republican party disappearing any time soon. the current two-party system's been more or less stable for a century, and i think the tea partiers breaking off and forming their own party and getting 2 percent of the vote in 2016 is more likely than the GOP breaking apart and dissolving.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:06 (eleven years ago) link
The 27% crazification factor continues to hold true:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8305/7982844829_b64b827613.jpg27-percent-again by dengre.bj, on Flickr
Xxxxxxxxpost to Edward III, I've seen a lot of Obama stickers in NE Ohio.
― Darren Robocopsky (Phil D.), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:10 (eleven years ago) link
GOP probably not going anywhere anytime soon
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/13/major-ron-paul-operative-jesse-benton-departs-to-work-for-the-ranking-republican-senator-mitch-mcconnell.html
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:11 (eleven years ago) link
it's not going anywhere, it's just going to change into a radically different animal
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:13 (eleven years ago) link
true. it will be interesting watching them walk back significant portions of their platform - particularly in the social arena - in the years to come. i'd be willing to bet there won't be any mainstream candidates publicly against marriage equality by 2020.
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:17 (eleven years ago) link
mainstream POTUS candidates, that is
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:18 (eleven years ago) link
I've been trying to keep my optimism in check but when I heard OH was trending obama I thought "it's curtains for mittens"
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:19 (eleven years ago) link
"it's curtains for mittens" is deathcab for cutie tribute band afaik
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:26 (eleven years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/oIves.png
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:28 (eleven years ago) link
I think tea partiers backing down is likely too. People have become really rabid about politics. I mean, I'm not voting Republican but the way people talk Mitt Romney is worse than Ronald Reagan!
― โตเกียวเหมียวเหมียว aka Italo Night at Some Gay Club (Mount Cleaners), Friday, 14 September 2012 13:30 (eleven years ago) link
― iatee, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:51 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
seems much more likely the gop will just go through a fallow period then shift their coalition, but who know either is possible, a new party would be p exciting i wonder what their animal will be
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:31 (eleven years ago) link
a chupacabra
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 13:33 (eleven years ago) link
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 00:17 (14 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Dunno, I've been seeing a lot of thinking along the lines of "The upcoming demographics are pretty socially conservative but won't vote for the Republicans while they're so racist - if they can shift that plank then the future is theirs"
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:34 (eleven years ago) link
assuming social conservatism will be concerned w/the same issues it is now in ten years and that whatever demographics youre trying to slice and dice will hold the same views is prob not going to work out, will is right that marriage equality will be mainstream in short order, just as interracial marriage is today
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:47 (eleven years ago) link
republicans can't shift the racist plank when its the only plank left
upcoming demographics aren't socially conservative
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:48 (eleven years ago) link