it might reach a point where romney's floor can't go any lower no matter what he does
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
The Republicans are still so much in thrall to the past (i.e. Reagan) that they're always rehashing stuff that worked once but is presently considered settled by everyone who isn't a die-hard. Name a competitive Socialist party in Europe that actually believes in the State taking over all the means of production? The new-found and largely incoherent Muslimphobia on the Right (Really? Sharia is your fear?) is weakened by the 'US is a Christian nation' silliness of the Xtian Right for Libertarians and Independents. The Republican brand is horribly weak right now; the kids are less racist, anti-immigrant and homophobic than in the past, there are fewer 'intellectuals' and they're less and less relevant and mostly scared of engaging with facts, the economy has been mixed since the 30's yet less sclerotically than in ages; all that's left are shrill zombies pissed off that the world doesn't revolve around their entitled little precious selves as much as when they were kids. Good luck finding a way to sell that as a path to a brighter future with that. It's the politics of pouting and even Reagan, God curse his Stanic soul, actually offered a brighter option than 'malaise' however wrong-headed he was.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
Romney isn't the problem; the Republican coalition is the problem.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:05 (eleven years ago) link
also dem party has legit co-opted many of the republicans most loved ideas
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
like why would foreign affair hawks stick w/ the republican party when obama is such a stone cold motherfucking killer?
Tomasky remarked today that if Obama is reelected then he will have taken the Democratic Party back to '48.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:07 (eleven years ago) link
That sounds about right
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
w/o Thurmond, tho
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, this makes sense:
http://gawker.com/5943076/rush-limbaugh-theorizes-that-al-qaeda-gave-bin-laden-up-to-help-obama-win-re+election
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:18 (eleven years ago) link
I really want to read a good history that addresses Johnson's claim that the Civil Rights act of '64 would lose the South for the Democratic Party and the radical, historical shift of the South from the bedrock of Democratic politics to the bedrock of Republican politics. From NASCAR to unborn fetuses to racial backlash about bussing and welfare, etc..., the egalitarian streak in Scotch-Irish commoners is now little about politics and rights and mostly about cultural butt-hurtedness. If they weren't such dicks I'd be happy to condescendingly feel bad about how fucked they've been by their 'betters'.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:19 (eleven years ago) link
mw otm
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:19 (eleven years ago) link
throw in "the rise of the Sunbelt, decline of manfacturing"
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:21 (eleven years ago) link
manufacturing too
I think a total collapse of the republican party in our lifetime is not even a particularly radical prediction at this point. they've dug the hole too deep.
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
when romney gets 48% of the vote i think we're a long way off from a "collapse"
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
you guys are talking as if right-wing butt-hurtedness is some kind of formula for failure in times like these
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:27 (eleven years ago) link
yah, Romney's "no apologies/Obama is a wimp" line is actually resonating with the base right now.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
Well the convention and Ryan pick didn't do it (in terms of, say, Palin levels).
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:30 (eleven years ago) link
Has anybody taken into account the yard sign/bumper sticker factor? By this point last year I was seeing a fair amount of McCain/Palin bumper stickers, even in Democrat-laden Chicago, but I can still count on one hand the number of Romney stickers I've seen. And in 2008 when I drove through rural Wisconsin, I saw hundreds of McCain yard signs. Making the same trip this year (though two weeks earlier, to be fair) I only say a handful of Romney yard signs.
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:36 (eleven years ago) link
er, obvs "last election" in that second sentence
Barely seen anything for Romney here in OC.
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
and the McCain campaign was not setting any engagement/enthusiasm records, either
― the physical impossibility of sb in the mind of someone fping (silby), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
romney can only pull 48% w/ this economy + that 48% is overwhelmingly made up of waning demographics + the hardest core republicans already don't even want to be called republicans = there's plenty of room for stuff to happen over the next decade
xp
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:38 (eleven years ago) link
people were freaking out about how awesome palin was though.
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:40 (eleven years ago) link
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
i think a social + economically libertarian republican party could do very well in the future
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
he shot himself in the foot so bad with that libya shit, can't wait to see him do it again and again
― the late great, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
xp you mean democratic party, right?
/morbs
and the obama fear factor the right wing was playing up was stronger. they're still beating that drum but 4 yrs have shown that he's not letting al qaeda into the white house to hang out and plot.
i don't think so xp
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
romney and paul might win, idk. but obama's energizing his base pretty well and the repubs just seem like assholes.
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
i think that's what it will come down to.
nov 6 forecast still at 80% but obama nowcast is now at 91.6%
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:44 (eleven years ago) link
saw a number of Romney signs in yards in Alexandria, Virginia (a mostly liberal town in Northern VA). They were outnumbered by the yards with no signs(the silent Obama majority!)
― curmudgeon, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:45 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, and a 51.2% - 47.5% popular vote landslide.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
that's a landslide?
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
I've seen alot of R/R bumper stickers on cars in Atlanta, which is more or less a Dem oasis in a vast sea of Republicans.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:51 (eleven years ago) link
Atlanta, maybe, the Atlanta metro area not so much so
― Brad C., Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:55 (eleven years ago) link
xp Nah, I'm underlining Tracer's point upthread, that getting 48% of the vote isn't exactly the sign of a party on the decrease. Though some of that is just How Politics Works these days, it's been 28 years since the runner-up got less than 45% of the vote (after you throw out any third-parties).
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
By the estimation of Nate Silver, a "landslide" is a ten percent or higher edge over the opponent.
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
I assume that's electoral votes. Ten percent in the popular vote seems unlikely nowadays. :(
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:59 (eleven years ago) link
That's funny, I was just pondering the other day, here in Atlanta, why I've seen almost NO Romney bumperstickers this close to voting day.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:03 (eleven years ago) link
Even Dukakis was within eight points with 45.7%--and the electoral was 426-111 that year. (Mondale, on the other hand, barely inched over 40%.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:04 (eleven years ago) link
when 48% becomes yr roof, you have a big picture problem, even if you can still win a (democratically unrepresentative) congress on a good year.
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:08 (eleven years ago) link
so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:09 (eleven years ago) link
i saw one but it turned out it said "nobama" and i thought i heard someone say "obama" the other day but they said "fauxbama."
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
If registered Democrats were as likely to vote as registered Republicans, the margin would be a lot wider.
― o. nate, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:11 (eleven years ago) link
In Atlanta? SO MANY.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:14 (eleven years ago) link
Bama, Bama, Bo BamaFaux Bama Fanna, Faux BamaFee Fie, No BamaObama!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MJLi5_dyn0
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:16 (eleven years ago) link
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qilVUxdSdKo/T9qYMQE4QsI/AAAAAAAASYw/rmb3D5ONhvo/s1600/BARRY+CHOOM+OBAMA+VERSUS+MITT+Romney.jpg
this pretty much sums it all up for me
― Spectrum, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link