I'd probably wait a couple of days till that last jobs report registers in the polling. Obama definitely seems to be ahead; I still see it more like 65/35, but then I spent most of '08 waiting for the roof to cave in. There's still the debates, still the various September economic reports, and I bet one more unexpected development. Canada severed all diplomatic ties with Iran yesterday, and now Netanyahu has called us "The leaders of the Western World." (Take that, America!) So the we've-fallen-behind-Canada-as-a-world-power issue will obviously loom large.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
I honestly think Obama's going to beat Romney like a tied-up goat in the debates.
― Irwin Dante's Towering Inferno (WmC), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:18 (eleven years ago) link
I doubt debates will change anyone's mind.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe they'll change Romney's mind? Certainly I think they'll hurt Ryan, which will affect Republican future.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:21 (eleven years ago) link
"anyone" seems a little broad.
― Mr. Que, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
I still see it more like 65/35
i don't mean to nitpick, but the reason i like 538 is that nate actually deploys his model to come up w/ his numbers. he doesn't make them up based on anecdotal evidence or his gut feeling. not that he's necessarily right and you're wrong, but i trust him more
― Mordy, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe they'll change Romney's mind?
maybe he'll drop out after the first one! ("Eh, fuck this").
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
not that he's necessarily right and you're wrong, but i trust him more
Wise move. Whenever I got discouraged in '08, Silver was a beacon of sanity, for the exact reasons you mention.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:24 (eleven years ago) link
I have a lot of belief in the 538 statistical model; I'm mostly boggling at how high that percentage chance of winning is and think it will correct back down over the next week.
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:25 (eleven years ago) link
i don't understand why the nowcast thing turned around so abruptly. is that all the dnc convention?
― caek, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:26 (eleven years ago) link
Watching Ryan try to bluster his way through the whole 'I voted for sequestration, but I didn't really, and besides it's Obama's fault' thing yesterday I envision him coming out of the debates looking more weaselly, not less.
― Ermahgerd Thomas (Dan Peterson), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:27 (eleven years ago) link
watching Alaskan reactions to the Biden/Palin debate really made me realize that most ppl who actually watch the debates have already made up their minds who will win them before they even start
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:30 (eleven years ago) link
yeah it's like rooting for your team
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:31 (eleven years ago) link
It's an 80/20 split in favour of a 51%-49% rousing sweep against a 49%-51% humbling defeat.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:34 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, that's why I downplay the odds. I realize Silver's model is partly based on realistic routes to victory, and that Romney's are few. It's just that so many of the alleged swing-state margins are very small.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:47 (eleven years ago) link
All it would take is footage of Obama, when no-one's not looking, pouring a beer into a plant pot...
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
when no-one's not looking
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
I actually think the racist vote will be smaller this year than it was in '08, for the simple reason that the black guy already won once, and the world didn't end. They're demoralized.
― 誤訳侮辱, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:09 (eleven years ago) link
Plus: more racists have died in the last four years.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 15:14 (eleven years ago) link
Romney's team working overtime on the "Look it's okay to have voted for him, lots of exciting historical reasons for voting for him, but it's okay to feel that maybe he wasn't right for the job. Right? Riiight? *cough*affirmativeaction" though.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:15 (eleven years ago) link
^That's the vibe I'm getting from the crap I hear from my mum. "He's a very nice man, I'm sure, but he *just isn't up to the job*" but srsly al these buzzwords and dog-whistles remind me of watching waves hitting a beach with less and less force as the tide goes out. Have been applying scorched-earth policy to family members by just calling them on the crypto-racism or just plain presenting them with how the three viewpoints they simultaneously hold are incompatible and maybe they better not repeat that shit outside the family lest they be taken as COMPLETELY FUCKING STUPID.
Sigh.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:09 (eleven years ago) link
Just ask them how much their life saving were down in 2008 vs. now.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
is "He's a very nice man, I'm sure, but he *just isn't up to the job* a dog whistle? I've been hearing variants since Reagan.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
Obama's going to beat Romney like a tied-up goat
I have no idea who's gonna win but this is my new favorite phrase
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:18 (eleven years ago) link
xp When it's my mom saying it, YES. She has never pulled this shit when talking about another president, and it is as if Obama has to be three times as good at presidentin' as the incredibly meatheaded white candidates for her to decide he was competent. Plus, creative Michelle Obama dissing, how else am I gonna get the angry white person's latest remix of what they say when they really mean 'uppity' :-(.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:20 (eleven years ago) link
debates don't really change anyone's mind (Alfred OTM - the people who tune in and pay attention are already partisans) but they are usually pretty entertaining and duh Obama is gonna murder Romney how can there be any doubt
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:22 (eleven years ago) link
oh yah def, suzy
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:24 (eleven years ago) link
Obama might suddenly blurt out, "Goddamn, America!" That would be a problem.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:25 (eleven years ago) link
― caek, Monday, September 10, 2012 10:26 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
silver had a post saying basically his formula assumed a baseline convention bounce larger for the challenger than the incumbent which romney really needed but when he didnt get it it let to a fairly large correction, then obama did get a bounce so
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:28 (eleven years ago) link
Silver's got a book coming
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:29 (eleven years ago) link
Don't think debates in and of themselves change minds, but a clearly terrible performance can definitely hurt. Palin, for example, was helped by not totally flubbing it. Had she totally fucked up, her reputation would have eroded even faster. If Romney and Ryan simply hang in there, I think they benefit. But if Obama and Biden hammer them, they definitely come out weaker. The challenge is how to do that without coming off like Gore in 2000, but neither Obama nor Biden seem that sort.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:30 (eleven years ago) link
I'd probably wait a couple of days till that last jobs report registers in the polling.
― clemenza, Monday, September 10, 2012 10:15 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
jobs are a huge deal in this election obvs, individual job reports i suspect not so much, particularly when they keep being in the same ballpark aka limping toward recovery, which at this point p clearly favors obama
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:31 (eleven years ago) link
debates matter, particularly if a sweet zing occurs
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:32 (eleven years ago) link
I think the most important aspect of the DNC came via Clinton, when he reminded everyone how badly the US was losing jobs in 2008. That and saving the auto industry is prima facia proof that while things may not be good, we are certainly better off. There is absolutely no way to refute that. The narrative was so mired in the miserable jobs situation that many lost sight of the fact that it could be much, much worse.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:40 (eleven years ago) link
this guy thinks michelle was better than bill http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/09/the-extremely-persuasive-michelle-obama
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:42 (eleven years ago) link
more racists have died in the last four years.
And... more have been born into racist families in racist neighborhoods in a society that has hundreds of years of institutionalized racism coursing through its veins.
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
Wait, four year olds can vote?
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:48 (eleven years ago) link
GOTTA CORNER THE INFANT ELECTORATE
Can I just point out to everyone boggling at Obama at 80% how absolutely horribly low public perception of the Republican party is and what an awful candidate Romney is. It's mind-boggling that anyone would vote that guy, frankly.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:50 (eleven years ago) link
ha I was going to make Tracer's post but from the standpoint of "how many of the dead racists have been replaced by racists newly legal to vote" in order to avoid that joke
do like the idea of Romney pandering to the toddler vote tho
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
"Palin, for example, was helped by not totally flubbing it. Had she totally fucked up, her reputation would have eroded even faster."
How could it have eroded any faster?!?!?
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
when they keep being in the same ballpark aka limping toward recovery, which at this point p clearly favors obama
Yeah, that does seem to be the case; expectations have been adjusted, and 50,000-100,000 seems to be good enough. If a really bad report came through, something in the red, I'm sure that would present a problem.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
Trying to imagine the world where Romney's trying to hang with DJ Lance Rock.
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
child voting rights is a worthy topic for speculative fiction imho
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
(also Alex, I don't doubt for a second that Obama is an overwhelming favorite at the moment, I just thought that American stubbornness re: changing one's mind would have mitigated more of that than it actually has based on Silver's model, hence me expecting a percentage chance number in the 70s rather than just over 80)
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:55 (eleven years ago) link
If a really bad report came through, something in the red, I'm sure that would present a problem.
― clemenza, Monday, September 10, 2012 12:54 PM (44 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
i think wed maybe have to see a trend for this to matter, like two maybe three months, jobs move slow is the thing, an 08 like financial collapse on the other hand could bring down obama p fast
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:56 (eleven years ago) link
absolutely horribly low public perception of the Republican party is
citation needed
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:56 (eleven years ago) link
"The Republican party sucks." - me
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:58 (eleven years ago) link
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/08/21/approval-of-congress-matches-all-time-low/
Last week, a Gallup poll reported that Congress’s approval rating had hit 10%, matching a 38-year-low in that poll last reached in February 2011. [...] The poll also shows that President Barack Obama’s party maintains an edge in likability, with 42% viewing it positively and 40% negatively. When asked of the GOP, 36% said they held positive impressions and 45% had negative ones.
[...]
The poll also shows that President Barack Obama’s party maintains an edge in likability, with 42% viewing it positively and 40% negatively. When asked of the GOP, 36% said they held positive impressions and 45% had negative ones.
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 17:00 (eleven years ago) link
damn, the cook political report costs $350 a year
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 10 September 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link