I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

I kinda like Ryan

fuck you, seriously

i fucking hate this country so much

just, fuck you.

yeah, ryan's endorsement of entitlement cuts isn't particularly sensible or noble as he's generally committed to gutting government services, breaking unions and disempowering the middle class.

'but at least he's talking about the issues!'

I've been saying this for about two years at this point, like a mantra, and first people refused to believe the first part, and now they keep doubting me on the second part:

It's gonna be Romney, and he's gonna lose.

The minute I looked at the parade of cartoon assholes lining up to run, I knew it was gonna be Romney. And the minute I saw Romney try to speak to human beings from Earth, I knew he was doomed. If you think he can convince people to vote for him and not against Obama, you're delusional. Romney's only chance - his only chance - is for the "fuck that nigger" vote to be way, way bigger than it was in 2008, and way bigger than any poll has indicated. It's just not there. He's gonna lose, and it's not even gonna be close. The margin's gonna be wider than it was versus McCain.

if you pledge to never ever raise taxes for any reason and refuse to consider cutting military spending, you aren't being serious, you're being a dick xp

terrorists

The math of looming entitlement shortfalls doesn't have a political bias. To date both political parties have largely just kicked the can down the road, or made things significantly worse (Medicare Part D, anyone)? I can't blame them, its political kryptonite. But there are a lot of bright people like former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker or Laurence Kotlikoff (both of whom intensely disdain both parties) that can walk the layperson through the actuarial math. If you need an economist from the political left try Isabel Sawhill.

All the recent fiscal disasters like Greece or California towns that promised more than it was possible for their tax base to support aren't particularly unusual (globally, or historically). They just got there first.

I've been saying this for about two years at this point, like a mantra, and first people refused to believe the first part, and now they keep doubting me on the second part:

It's gonna be Romney, and he's gonna lose.

The minute I looked at the parade of cartoon assholes lining up to run, I knew it was gonna be Romney. And the minute I saw Romney try to speak to human beings from Earth, I knew he was doomed. If you think he can convince people to vote /for him/ and not /against Obama/, you're delusional. Romney's only chance - his /only/ chance - is for the "fuck that nigger" vote to be way, way bigger than it was in 2008, and way bigger than any poll has indicated. It's just not there. He's gonna lose, and it's not even gonna be close. The margin's gonna be wider than it was versus McCain.

OTM

before the Ryan pick I was finally relegating myself to the idea that it was 50/50 and despite his utter incompetence as a campaigner Romney might win. admitting I had been in denial or overestimating the intelligence of the american public etc but for reasons I can't quite articulate now I'm feeling confident that Romney will continue to cripple himself with ineptitude (is that a word?) and Ryan will ultimately pull him down.

Ryan isn't going to pull Mitt down; Ryan is going to pull himself up a la 2004 Edwards, as someone mentioned upthread. This whole situation cements Romney as the Republican Kerry, which we already knew anyway.

Just trying to coherently defend Ryan's numerous Newt-like Big Ideas will prove Mitt's (further) undoing. I know he probably picked Ryan as a guy who can hold his own, but I wonder if it occurred to Mitt that he's going to have to hold Ryan's own (so to speak), too.

As for Ryan's future, his consistency will be his undoing. He's been hammering at the same ideas for so long that by the time he gets around to running for Pres, if he does, they'll not only be old ideas, but old failed ideas.

...but Kerry came rather close to winning, ya know. xp

was it Tomasky who wrote the article last week arguing that there's a good possibility Obama does win in a landslide?

I often forget that Kerry is still a senator.

The election is really so close, and the Mittmentum is not in the candidate's favor.

Like, Mitt could only win if he brought Osama Bin Laden back to life, reminded people who he was again, and then killed him a second time. And then his numbers would just as quickly plumet for carelessly reanimating him.

the GOP can only win if it brings Reagan back to life.

Ryan (who I first campaigned against in 2000 while a graduate student in Madison) is a great public speaker. Way better than Romney, though not par with Obama on a good day. The big problem with the choice is that Ryan doesn't put any swing states into contention, doesn't make any appeals to Hispanics (the ethnic group that will utterly kill Republican national tickets for decades to come), and doesn't make Romney look any more likeable than he is.

Really bad choice for Romney, but interesting choice coming from the Republican establishment. Its as if they're willing to sacrifice 2012 to keep Tea Party types enthused about local races and push an idea guy into the spotlight. Then again, Ryan 2016 could well go down like Goldwater 1964.

While I definitely thought it would be romney for the last few years, I do wonder what would have happened to Santorum if Gingrich hadn't fucked up his shit in so many states (quite a few were near ties between Rick and Mitt, with Gingrich getting getting more than enough to make the difference). I assumed most of Newt's votes were "Not Romneys" more '90s nostalgic than evangelical, and if Rick had picked up more of them than Mitt he could have won quite a few more states. Mitt probably would have blasted Santorum even harder, someone else might have run, etc, etc, but if Newt had skipped off earlier I wonder if Rick would have had an edge.

alfred otm

but sadly they keep resurrecting revisionist versions of his ghost, which is enough for enough of the people enough of the time

Mitt probably would have blasted Santorum even harder, someone else might have run, etc, etc, but if Newt had skipped off earlier I wonder if Rick would have had an edge.

It was always gonna be Romney (hell, I'm kind of amazed it wasn't Romney in 2008), but Santorum could well have had Ryan's spot if not for Newt.

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110615120715/en.futurama/images/0/03/RonaldReagansHead.png

huh Bush d. Kerry was much closer than I remember it being

Then again, I knew Kerry had lost when he followed up a BEP performance with "a really special treat for everyone": James Taylor and his acoustic guitar so I probably just stopped following the electoral count

"I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for doody."

Dude was hammering youth and excitement and everything he'd done to get young ppl out, and then at his rally had both JT and Sheryl Crow do acoustic sets; I'm surprised he didn't have a video montage of 50s teens hula hooping to "Chantilly Lace".

The math of looming entitlement shortfalls doesn't have a political bias.

― The Painter of Blight™ (Sanpaku), Sunday, August 12, 2012 11:11 AM (30 minutes ago)

no, of course not, but ryan's flogging of entitlement cuts sure as hell does.

(and despite being created by a mad scientist out of dead body parts, he was about a bazillion times more adept at talking to people than Romney, even of half of those conversations ended up with a little girl drowning in a well)

do you guys dig how fucking batshit the GOP convention is going to be

REMEMBER

http://www.barewalls.com/i/c/428035_Rockin-Rebel.jpg

Aren't they still wondering whether they can keep Palin out or not?

xpost Jesus Alfred if ever we needed a reminder of just how ossified Rolling Stone got.

Mike Mills plays bass, Eddie Vedder was drummer for Hovercraft I say we got ourselves a supergroup on that cover

do you guys dig how fucking batshit the GOP convention is going to be

I'm hoping Palin morphs into an actual pit bull and eats Pawlenty

and Jackson Browne covering JT songs

no, of course not, but ryan's flogging of entitlement cuts sure as hell does.

Really really wish Obama had pushed something like Isabell Sawhill's suggested entitlement changes or even the Bowles/Simpson recommendations. To not suggest anything was ceding the idea high-ground to the ideologues of the Right.

Jesus Alfred if ever we needed a reminder of just how ossified Rolling Stone got.

you mean brian wilson isn't one of the ten best new bands?

Also hoping Huntsman tries to give a speech but bursts into tears instead, screaming "WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE" and locks himself in the bathroom for several hours sobbing into a live mic

do you guys dig how fucking batshit the GOP convention is going to be

does ayn ryan undercut the ron paul riot?

cuz even if they didn't have enough to get him on the stage there are a loooot of ron paulies that got themselves made into delegates

Rand Paul forgoes his speech and instead shoots a round of skeet with homemade leaflets titled "Sherrie Law"

Rand Paul forgoes his speech and instead sings Steve Perry's "Oh Sherry"

Four words: Haley Barbour strip tease

OK I was going to find the excelsior thread to give DJP some luv but I'm too busy barfing now, sorry.

Rand Paul trades licks with Ted Nugent on live television - for best mileage here, "trades licks" can mean whatever you want it to mean here

Jan Brewer and Bobby Jindal perform their renowned comedy act "Pious and Biased"

Not since Britney and Madonna

Reagan body exhumed and hoisted on stage so that Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich take turns fucking it while Nino Scalia quotes from his dissent in Lawrence v. Texas

OK I was going to find the excelsior thread to give DJP aero some luv but I'm too busy barfing now, sorry.

Michele Bachmann's husband does a dance routine to "Where Have You Been" while wearing Chick Fil A pasties

Halfway through Rick Perry's speech, it slowly dawns on everyone that he is graciously accepting the party's nomination

AAAAAAH