2008 Primaries Thread

lol

i try not to be too pessimistic about HRC; come november chances are she could be the nominee and i'll have to figure out what i can do to get her up over mccain or romney. but the above sequence of events looks horrible and is horrible. and plenty of real shitbags have gone after O on Hil's behalf. Robert L. Johnson, gimme a break

let's ask the racial slur database!

x-post

I think Hil would say that this is what he can expect in the general

if not much worse

i try not to be too pessimistic about HRC; come november chances are she could be the nominee and i'll have to figure out what i can do to get her up over mccain or romney.

What's amazing to me, tho, is that in a head-to-head matchup, HRC currently has a bigger lead over McCain than Obama has over McCain (they both lead McCain, ever so slightly). So maybe she'll be fine as the nominee, but I doubt it.

this is what I'm saying about letting the other side go first. it's entirely possible that Hillary does better against McCain by neutralizing the experience thing, while Obama's youth neutralizes McCain's non-youth. Obama on the other hand appears to do better than Hillary against Huckabee, where the relevant question is likeability.

(and not being a fucking nutjob)

that would be credible if she were thrashing him handily but she isn't. + i'm still convinced that the GOP is going to be much worse against her (and more effectively so) than against BHO, swiftjihadi BS notwithstanding.

xps yeah i saw that poll with HRC having a slightly better edge against mccain, strange

which isn't to say that those poll results couldn't easily flip once the campaign begins and people realize how old mccain is or remember how much they don't like hillary

but they're worth taking seriously

is there a worse "liberal" columnist than richard cohen

obama's minister may have supported farrakhan? in 1982? that's really what you're pushing

such a hack

Dukakis led Bush I in polls in summer '88, y'know

in 1982?

oh sorry they gave the award last year ... bad reading comprehension

still a hack

another contra argument is that obama has likeability to fall back on. hillary still doesn't match up to mccain on experience - http://www.slate.com/id/2182073/ - and if/when he wins that battle, she's gotta turn to age.

the idea of hillary winning the nom is, like, crushing

another contra argument is that obama has likeability to fall back on. hillary still doesn't match up to mccain on experience - http://www.slate.com/id/2182073/ - and if/when he wins that battle, she's gotta turn to age.

But either Democrat (HRC or Obama) is going to make Iraq the issue in a GE. I don't care how he tried to backpeddal from, or soften, his statement that we should stay in Iraq for 100 years, but coupled with the recent announcement by an Iraqi official (Abdul Qadir) that our presence may be needed through 2018, that sets up a hopefully clear fault line: leave soon or stay long-term.

That's a debate I think/hope we can win.

Hopefully, we'd be able to link McCain to the very-unpopular Bush Admin.

I think the idea that all we have to say is McCain = Bush, and suddenly everyone's gonna say 'oh, i did not know that' and they'll all turn out to vote against mccain is at least in part a fantasy

What I was hearing on morning chat shows today was.. McCain's problem is the GOP base doesn't like him on: immigration, taxes, and given that immigration is the big issue GOP would try and demagogue to win the election.. and then if enough of the base doesn't turn out b/c of tax issue, probably values issues too, he's no evangelical

the idea of hillary winning the nom is, like, crushing

Yeah. Might as well hand the White House over to the republicans for the next 8 years now.

The Dem primaries are harder to win than the general election. GOP's on the wrong side of every issue.

I think the idea that all we have to say is McCain = Bush, and suddenly everyone's gonna say 'oh, i did not know that' and they'll all turn out to vote against mccain is at least in part a fantasy.

You're right about that. But (a) tying the two can do some damage and (b) we can tie them together on some of this Administration's most unpopular policies, e.g., the endless occupation of Iraq.

Nicole??

What I was hearing on morning chat shows today was.. McCain's problem is the GOP base doesn't like him on: immigration, taxes, and given that immigration is the big issue GOP would try and demagogue to win the election.. and then if enough of the base doesn't turn out b/c of tax issue, probably values issues too, he's no evangelical.

Don't bet on this. I spoke to a prominent leader in Florida's evengelical community, and he said he would happily support McCain in a GE (and would campaign for him).

(Spoke with him yesterday)

GOP's on the wrong side of every issue.

and the Dems come mighty close!

(as do the voters)

gop, dems, voters - wrong
morbs, dennis perrin - right

it's a small club

I spoke to a prominent leader in Florida's evengelical community, and he said he would happily support McCain in a GE (and would campaign for him).

Of course he would. Evangelicals -- like Rupert Murdoch -- just want to run with the big dogs, whoever they are and whatever they believe.

Well, there had been discussion in some corners that if a non-evangelical (e.g., McCain) won the GOP nomination, evangelicals would either not vote or support a third-party candidate. Won't happen, tho.

I'm really annoyed because one of my closest friends sent me an email titled "Don't forget to vote today....for HILLARY!"

I think this is the first primary where I'm not voting. Even if I didn't think HRC was unelectable in a general election, the Michigan primary setup is very flawed, as detailed here:

http://jackshow.blogs.com/jack/2008/01/essay-primary-o.html

Of course he would. Evangelicals -- like Rupert Murdoch the guy in 'There Will Be Blood' -- just want to run with the big dogs, whoever they are and whatever they believe.

-- Tracer Hand, Tuesday, January 15, 2008 6:37 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

trumping up this fake immigration "issue" has been nauseating (I'm lookin at YOU Lou Dobbs)

"well last election it was the fags, this time let's use the beaners"

i dont think theres a question huge #s of evangelicals will be voting repub in the next election. the q is how big

Nader, in da club!

You won't hear a call for a national crackdown on the corporate crime, fraud, and abuse that have robbed trillions of dollars from workers, investors, pension holders, taxpayers and consumers... Candidates will not shout for a payback of ill-gotten gains, to rein in executive pay, or to demand corporate sunshine laws....

The candidates will not demand a reduction in the military budget that devours half the federal government's operating expenditures at a time when there is no Soviet Union or other major state enemy in the world. Studies by the General Accounting Office and internal Pentagon assessments support the judgment of many retired admirals and generals that a wasteful defense weakens our country and distorts priorities at home.

You won't hear a consistent clarion call for electoral reform. Both parties have shamelessly engaged in gerrymandering, a process that guarantees reelection of their candidates at the expense of frustrated voters. Nor will there be serious proposals that millions of law-abiding ex-felons be allowed to vote...

http://counterpunch.org/nader01152008.html

you say things that most people don't prioritize won't by prioritized by officials running for elected office? well i am shocked

he's right about jerrymandering! only he and hendrik hertzberg seem to care about that one

who did you poll, deej?

what opinion poll ever has ever had gerrymandering trump education, economics or health care?

im not saying that it SHOULDNT, but if thats yr issue then raise awareness about it w/in the electorate - then politicians are forced to talk about it. The idea that a candidate who wants to win should be spending his time talking about issues that half the country prob doesnt even understand (how many u.s. citizens actually know what gerrymandering means?) is ridiculous

http://thephoenix.com/OutsideTheFrame/content/binary/060425_Pol_MittRomney_ex.jpg

we ought to double Dr. Morbius

dammit

http://thephoenix.com/OutsideTheFrame/content/binary/060425_Pol_MittRomney_ex.jpg

talk about lowered expecs -- you think Bushgore 2000 spread awareness of the need for electoral reform, deej?

And what about leaders LEADING instead of regurgitating the popular priorities of their constituents? I believe that's touched on in both Profiles in Courage and the Broadway musical 1776...

(Nader deals w/ economics and health care in the C'punch piece.)

I believe that's touched on in both Profiles in Courage and the Broadway musical 1776...

our nation's founding documents

I'm surprised Morbs cites a ghostwritten text.

it was a bestseller, who cares who dun wrote it? (like Raymond Carver's stories)

GORDON LISH FOR PRESIDNET

i think what morbs is saying is that america needs a real leader, someone we can all rally behind, a "strong man" if you will...

http://images.ctv.ca/archives/CTVNews/img2/20061228/475_ap_saddam_061228.jpg