Odyssey Dawn: a military operations in Libya thread.

I support the intervention but think Obama should have gone to Congress for authorization. I recognize that it is inconsistent to be taking action in Libya but not in Syria (or Bahrain or Yemen) but there seem to be so many elements that factor into those decisions (not all logical). I do not know enough to discuss specifics of the NATO strategy. If you read upthread, you'll see that others think the whole thing is wrong. Glenn Greenwald and others are making that case elsewhere.

Also, Syria is discussed on this other thread:

a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

on its own terms it's not "inconsistent", NATO countries had some chance of knocking off Qdf and/or "protecting civilians" by intervening in libya and don't have that chance in syria at all

The House on Friday rejected a measure that would have authorized the United States’s mission in Libya, but also rejected a measure to limit financing.

Uh, ok.

Judges from the International Criminal Court on Monday issued a warrant for the arrest of Libyan President Moammar Gaddafi, his son and a top military intelligence chief, calling for them to to stand trial for crimes against humanity in connection with a violent crackdown on anti-government protesters this year.

Good luck in enforcing the warrant

The House on Friday rejected a measure that would have authorized the United States’s mission in Libya, but also rejected a measure to limit financing.

Uh, ok.

― curmudgeon, Friday, June 24, 2011 7:02 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

US Congress, just thinkin baout thangs

Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi will have to receive security guarantees to relinquish his four decades of rule over the North African nation, said Mikhail Margelov, Russia’s envoy for negotiating Qaddafi’s departure.

“Qaddafi will be interested in getting guarantees about his personal security,” Margelov said in a phone interview from Harare today after holding talks with Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe.

Can they get Q and Mugabe to leave power?

that's basically the devil's bargain for a lot of despots i think. not a bad bargain either, imo

getting off easy is what it is

for whom?

what exactly would 'personal security' imply though? being arrested probably safer than lynched or bombed

letting him slip quietly away to some shithole to live in a villa seems measurably safer for a whole lot of libyans...

yeah just buy him off along with mugabe, lukashenko and the rest, put them on an island and make a tv show of it

^^^presumably some kidn of Battle Royale show

ha

And Qadafi has just chewed off Mugabe's ear! But will they be able to avoid the deathtrap Lukashenko has waiting for them? TUNE IN NEXT WEEK

That program is not on yet.

For now, according to NPR, Qadaffi is using sub-Saharan Africans who had come to Libya to work, as soldiers to bolster the size of his force. He is paying them and suggesting that being part of his military is the only way they can stay. NPR says that the rebels assert that Q is hiring experienced Sub-Saharan mercenaries, but NPR based on what they have seen in refugee camps, says that is not the case.

Meat grinder war. But the west will keep it going as long as there are rebels willing to die with our assistance.

^^^

i think the rebels would be willing to die without our assistance, too! and in many cases "willing" wouldnt really enter into it!

Qadaffi could leave for Zimbabwe or somewhere today and the rebels and the west would be happy for the fighting to stop, as would the folks that for financial reasons have enlisted in Qadaffi's military

xp to max

In which case, obviously, our assistance is not required.

Except you will rejoin that, of course, it is. But to accomplish what? Oh, yes, that's right, protecting civilians. Except this can only be accomplished through offensive operations against Q, but not too much offense, lest we protect civilians too vigorously, because that would overstep the UN resolution and amount to regime change. So the regime does not change, but it still must be fought.

Or something like that.

I don't think our support of the rebels here is morally wrong btw, so while I agree with yr assessment of the conflict I don't really agree that we should just wash our hands of the whole affair

If the sole strategic aim is to convince Q to step down, then we have no strategy.

I think our strategic aims would be met if the rebels manage to off Q. or if we happen to kill him in an airstrike.

At this point, the rebels have no prayer of getting close enough to Q to kill him and that will not change for the foreseeable future. If an airstrike were to kill Q, but one of his sons immediately stepped in to fill his shoes, this would not amount to anything new and the war would continue.

i dont know if i really "support" the war i just didnt like your characterization of it above as some kind of... western project to make sure a lot of libyan civilians died

At this point, the rebels have no prayer of getting close enough to Q to kill him and that will not change for the foreseeable future.

I dunno how yr so sure about this or how long the "foreseeable future" is. if your point is that this war is just going to go on and on and there's nothing anybody can do about it... well, what kind of point is that, exactly.

I mean if that really is your prognostication, what is so wrong with trying, however marginally, to increase the odds that the side we would like to win eventually prevails? we're only "prolonging" this conflict in the sense that if we weren't assisting, Q would butcher all his enemies in short order. You are okay with that, I assume.

or do you think Q would just be like, "nah that's cool, let's partition the country, I get the west, you keep the east. Pardons for all!"

or do you think that by prolonging this conflict even MORE people will die than if Q just got to have his way with the country? we're talking about the calculus of mass murder here, and none of the options are good. they range from "horrific" to "slightly less horrific". I'm going with the "slightly less horrific" option.

You are okay with that, I assume.

Shakey, you may take that road, if you like, but the world is rife with autocratic leaders killing or torturing their enemies. We are not intervening militarily in those countries. Often we are offering military assistance to the leader instead. You are okay with that, I assume.

no I'm not. but just because we're doing the wrong thing in other places shouldn't preclude us from doing the right thing in this particular place. every international conflagration is, in its way, unique, and treating them all the same is both wrong and ill-advised.

nice misdirection there though

no, I'm not

I see my assumption was as untrue as yours was, then. Why you would think I am okay with anybody perpetrating a massacre is stupid, even as rhetoric.

Now that we've settled that bit of kerfuffle, let's examine your position:

every international conflagration is, in its way, unique, and treating them all the same is both wrong and ill-advised.

So, clearly, the fact of killing of innocent people and government-sanctioned criminal injustice is insufficient, of itself, to justify military intervention. Absent more compelling factors (which you do not specify) such an intervention could be "wrong and ill-advised" in your view. I happen to agree.

Where we disagree is whether those other, compelling factors exist in Libya. Slamming me for amorality and uncaring is a sweet little game, but you are just as willing to be amoral and uncaring when it suits you. Call it misdirection, but I think it is relevant.

I just don't understand what you think we should do here, since you're always very elliptical about it

also the compelling factors here (which I and others have specified upthread more times than I can count) are a) opportunity and b) support of both the surrounding and larger international communities

like, we have no leverage in Syria, we can't get away with arming anybody there. but we do have some room to operate in Libya, as well as allies, UN backing, support for (or at least lack of opposition to) our involvement from Q's neighbors, etc.

i don't think starting an unwinnable civil war with a ruthless dictator is really "the right thing to do"

and fwiw i don't think starting an unwinnable civil war with a ruthless dictator and then pleading for NATO assistance as a matter of moral urgency is "the right thing to do", either

uh we didn't start it?

xp

or are you blaming the protestors for "starting" the war again? I thought we put that weird misconception to rest

Why you would think I am okay with anybody perpetrating a massacre is stupid, even as rhetoric.

― Aimless, Friday, July 8, 2011 7:37 PM (2

Earlier on this thread I am pretty sure you voiced the view that countries including the US should only get involved in war when they are directly attacked. I suggested you were an isolationist and you did not seem to like that label. So while you might not be ok with a massacre, you in the past seemed to suggest that other countries should not intervene to stop one.

xp to Shakey

The difficulty is that the room to operate, the allies and the lack of opposition from neighboring countries do not extend far enough to allow a coherent and workable strategy for removing Q.

The only strategy that amounts to more than a roll of dice would require an army to oppose his. The rebels, howeve brave they may be, are not an army. The only army in Libya belongs to Q. If you want to dislodge an army, you need to place another army on the ground.

Our allies aren't willing to do this. His neighbors are not willing to countenance this. Our own nation would not be willing to start yet another war, as this would require conscription in order to enlarge our own army, or else moving troops out of Iraq or Afghanistan. Not to mention the cost of another full scale war.

So, we are rolling the dice instead.

You seem to be happy with this. For you this is a legitimate strategy. Max objects to characterizing this as a western project for killing a lot of Libyans. I can't see it as much else but gambling with Libyan lives, and as long as their are lives to gamble with, we'll keep it up. But this is not what I view as a legitimate use of US military power.

As for what I want us to do, that is much trickier now that we've waded in knee-deep. The external factors (no army in Libya, our country, allies and neighbors unwilling to back a real war) aren't going to improve one jot. That leaves us only a graceless exit or a lucky roll of the dice. Since I don't wish to roll the dice interminably, a graceless exit, ugly, with recriminations to spare, as the only bad choice among worse choices.

I just wish someone had had the sense to foresee this (aside from me) and forestall this before Obama dragged us in.

shakey mo are you conflating peaceful protests with the establishment of rebel military bases and dudes riding around in technicals with mortars again? i thought we put that weird misconception to rest

even if you want to see them as the same people - even if they were the same people - i think it was a terrible mistake for the gaddafi opposition to see their opposition on a military basis

"happy" is kind of overstating it. I'm more like "okay" with it.

I don't really see Q prevailing in the long-term. he's old, he's isolated, and lots of people want him dead. not really a recipe for long-term success. I'll be surprised if this turns into a 30-year civil war a la Columbia. I guess it could happen...

otoh I just don't really get why you think a graceless exit, resulting in a massacre, is somehow preferable (or less bloody?) than gambling on forestalling it indefinitely.

xp

even if you want to see them as the same people - even if they were the same people - i think it was a terrible mistake for the gaddafi opposition to see their opposition on a military basis

yeah and I see this as first world condescension in one of its worst forms - telling people they don't have the right to defend themselves.

like telling a hapless protestor whose being shot at not to shoot back and just lay down and die = NAGL

especially when its a defense of last resort (it's not like they started out with the mortars, things started peacefully and then deteriorated because of Q's escalation)