2008 Primaries Thread

I'm pretty sure Clinton is going to be better at the long snog.

Do people Democrats genuinely believe that Hillary Clinton would be capable of winning a general election and regaining the White House? Honestly?

on one hand, you have to beat Somebody with Somebody. Dems' best hope would be that the GOP has a nominee who can inspire nearly as much hatred as Hil does.

I'm beginning to have my doubts that Obama can make it. He really needed a blitzkrieg quick kill. He needed to deliver the coup de grâce in NH, when Obama fever was high, the JFK comparisons were thick on the ground and the media was on side. Now it's going to be a long slog, and I'm pretty sure Clinton is going to be better at the long slog.

-- Zelda Zonk, Friday, 11 January 2008 16:20 (17 minutes ago) Link

I'm having a hard time seeing the connection between your metaphors and reality.

There's no evidence that a "quick kill" in Iowa and New Hampshire, or a lack thereof, determines outcomes.

Maybe not, but perceived wisdom was that an Obama win in NH would have been a mortal blow to Clinton.

u ppl are trying to reach a Chris Matthews level of random thought, aren't you?

"perceived wisdom"

Dems' best hope would be that the GOP has a nominee who can inspire nearly as much hatred as Hil does.

That or a GOP nominee who will keep much of their base unmotivated/won't inspire much enthusiasm and who won't peel off too many independent and/or Democratic votes.

So Huckabee, Romney or Giuliani would be fine. McCain, as I've said, is the GOP candidate I don't want to see.

what evidence is there, exactly, that either on of them will be better in the "long slog"? neither one of them has had a tough contest before. a tough contest between popular national democrats is uncharted territory for either one of them anyway!

let me say "either one of them" 1 more tiem

"colossal fuck tuesday"

i think we need to retitle this thread

I wonder what total posts # will be on S.F.Tuesday. NERDS!

or C.F.Tuesday

Cable News Bukkake Tuesday

C on Tuesday

lol:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/01/giuliani_staffers_forego_paych.php

NERDS!

-- Dr Morbius

http://www.horrordvds.com/reviews/misc/pictures/nerds.jpg

getting back to Pakistan, does anyone else find it kind of funny that Musharraf is getting all indignant about potential US excursions into the Afghan-Pakistanio border and threatening reprisals over an area he himself has no control over and can't functionally operate in militarily?

I mean what's he gonna do, send troops there? nuke it? lolz

he does not explicitly "threaten[] reprisals"

that's true, he just says "they would regret that day."

"Symmetry required gabbneb to start this" is eventually going to become as annoying as "Because I want to wait to see how the 2006 congressional elections play out."

I sought immortality.

having a former leader of the executive branch appointed to the highest court of the judicial branch? excuse me but i'm sure even the most sympathetic congress would block that nomination.

So why was Taft OK?

Oh wait, Alfred already mentioned that.

Peggy Noonan's latest bit of tosh:

But I think the crying moment, as it is called, though she didn't cry, gained extra force because it occurred just as Mr. Obama, as a personality, was settling in as rather a chilly fellow. Sleek and elegant, yes, but cold, or at least cool at the core.

Barack Obama is up against a lot of tropes, a lot of assumptions and understandings about what it is to be young, gifted, black and a major political figure. He's not Jesse Jackson, he's not Dr. King, he's not Andrew Young. He's trying to break a mold, make it new, be who he is, anticipate expectations, upend clichés, startle you into seeing him clear. He plays down emotionalism in terms of his visage (not his words), keeps his guard up, wears dignity like a cloak. When he appeared with Oprah in Des Moines, she vibrated at the podium like a puppy. He came on cool and loping, always using his hands in the frame in a slow and deliberative manner, to show he never gets a tremor, doesn't break a sweat. He's cool. Is that a universally beloved attribute in a national candidate? Is it a plus that carries a minus?

Was what is called sexism part of the story? I suppose, and in a number of ways. When George Bush senior cries in public, it's considered moving. Ditto his moist-eyed son. But in fairness, they have tended to appear moved about things apart from themselves, apart from their own predicaments. Mrs. Clinton was weeping about Mrs. Clinton. If a man had uttered Mrs. Clinton's aria--if Mr. Obama had said, "And you know, this is very personal for me . . . as tired as I am . . . against the odds," and gotten choked--they would have laughed him out of town.

I dunno that last paragraph is fairly OTM (esp re: Hillary tearing up about nothing particular apart from herself and her, uh, hair)

In isolation, maybe, but the simplistic binarity – Obama cool, HRC emotional – is the same blarney the alpha male-obsessed Noonan's been peddling for years.

her and Chris Matthews should have a lovechild

nauseating phrases of the moment ts

"i have so many opportunities for this country" vs "iron my shirt"

"i found my voice" vs "what is called sexism...i suppose"

trick question: all awful

no, she's totally right. Obama's cool (and his ironic sense, which boomers just don't understand at all) is a minus for him to some extent.

what he has to do is foreground the family more. a big part of his appeal is that - other than race - the family looks a lot like that of a lot of people who help decide elections.

also, I heard a Michelle speech the other day that was as thoughtful/"inspiring" as the ones he gives, if not more

Barack Obama is up against a lot of tropes

Different tropes for different folks?

you could say that O was raised in the suburban era, while C preceded it

I can't stand smarmy Peggy Noonan, but that middle paragraph -- and especially the line about Obama wears his "dignity like a cloak" -- makes a decent point. That jarring contrast between his elegant/dignified demeanor and how he appears when he drops his guard, even a little -- e.g., the "you're likable enough" line -- can turn people off faster than the same semi-flippant line from someone else, say George Bush. Also, Noonan's point isn't far off from the Yglesias post I linked to above, which I think nails one of Obama's biggest vulnerabilities.

I LOVED THAT LINE AND HIS DELIVERY. I'm convinced it's the pundits – who worry about such sorry minutiae years after we've forgotten, e.g. Reagan's "comeback" perf in the second '84 debate – who create this elitism, unless I'm underestimating American resistance to polish and irony.

rove is sorta otm about the trash-talking thing, tho - "you're likeable enough" is exactly the sort of thing dudes say to each other in locker rooms after a game. obama was just treating hillary like one of the boys. which is totally sexist, of course. not that most women have spent much time in guys' locker rooms.

i loved the line, too - it was grudgingly affectionate but perfectly expressed the notion that 'yeah, you're electable and would be an effective president, but we don't need you anymore'

dudes in a locker room slap each other's butts and scream "YOU KICKED ASS!"

I LOVED THAT LINE AND HIS DELIVERY. I'm convinced it's the pundits – who worry about such sorry minutiae years after we've forgotten, e.g. Reagan's "comeback" perf in the second '84 debate – who create this elitism, unless I'm underestimating American resistance to polish and irony.

I know you did. I didn't mind it, but I immediately thought it wouldn't play well. You are underestimating American resistance to polish and irony (at least with older voters). I think we had this discussion during the debate, just moments after he said it.

I guess I didn't attend the Michael Deaver-George Stephanopolous Graduate School of Semiotics.

I got my degree from their online university!

Reagan helped America resist the Polish Irony Curtain. Sorry.

The idea that anyone with the massive ego and calculation to join the modern presidential campaign circus (with its packaged evasions openly masquerading as "answers") isn't essentially cold makes me larf.

(no-hope idealists like Kucinich excepted obv)

anyone have any insight as to why CNN "unearthed" those ugly Ron Paul newsletters and asked him about them in the last couple days (as opposed to, say, almost a year ago when we were all discussing them?)

Won't the presidential candidates seek a private audience with Morbs?

xp: Giuliani paid them