Odyssey Dawn: a military operations in Libya thread.

So author Jeremy Scahill (from the far left) is mocking the Libyan rebels as a small ragtag bunch similar to the contras that Reagan backed, while some on the far right are convinced they're all Al queda and will turn on the US next....

Scahill has a long article in the Nation on Yemen and the US battles with Al Queda there. The comment section discusses his disagreements with liberal MSNBC host Ed Schultz re Libya.

http://www.thenation.com/article/159578/dangerous-us-game-yemen?comment_sort=ASC#comments

Oh FFS North Africans don't want to start Al Q groups.

I read Scahill's book on Blackwater and admired it and him, until I peeked at his Facebook photos and saw photos of him in the late nineties hanging out with Fidel. Unironically.

US ending air combat role

Whatever that means. Directly, you mean, since I assume we will continue to supply intel and whatnot.

I think it means we aren't gonna fly planes and drop bombs

from the far left (bill o'reilly voice)

Oh FFS North Africans don't want to start Al Q groups.

It was my understanding that there were numerous Libyans w/Al Qaeda in Afghanistan though that was said to reflect the futility of operations in Libya as much as anything.

It was my understanding that "Al Qaeda is secretly running the Libyan revolution/arming them with Islamist strings attached" was basically a unsubstantiated rumor taken seriously by the likes of Alex Jones and George Noory...

yeah i mean no one besides complete idiots believes they're "secretly running" the whole thing or whatever absolute terms you'd like to use - the makeup of the_rebels is still v much unclear tho obv which is (one of the many reasons) why the US is hesitant to arm them

Oh FFS North Africans don't want to start Al Q groups.

― nights of d. cameron (suzy), Friday, April 1, 2011 5:39 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark

eh? dunno how they feel about OG al-q, but violent islamists have been known to inhabit the region (and indeed inspired osama's merry band), and could take on the brand. don't think they are 'running tings' but it's a factor in the equation.

TS: an administration that directly and openly funded terrorism against the west vs a rebellion that may or may not (while accepting aid from the west) end up rebelling violently against the west.

i keep forgetting everything wrt libya fits into these neat binaries

Het, if the world doesn't fit into binaries then those in power acr as if it does, which is kind of the same thing. I mean, any weapons we give the rebels will be be less (or equal) to what Gaddafi would have if he wins.

The US seems more worried about the Al Queda unit (AQAP) operating in Yemen and what will happen if (when at this point, maybe) Yemen's head of state leaves. Scahill thinks that the US' single-minded focus on AQAP without any support for bread and butter economic issues there has backfired for the US.

Will Syria eventually succeed Iran-style in supressing dissent?
From the NY Times:
Thousands of protesters took to the streets in cities around Syria on Friday to chants of “We want freedom” and security forces responded with tear gas, electrified batons, clubs and bullets, killing at least seven people, according to activists, residents and a Syrian human rights group.

demonstrators had chanted “Freedom is not a foreign conspiracy or call to sectarian division,” in response to the Wednesday speech in which President Assad accused protesters of advancing “an Israeli agenda” against Syria and said they had been “duped” or were conspiring to destroy the nation.

Syrian state media on Friday reported that imams and prayer leaders had repeated President Assad’s warning about foreign conspiracies.

demonstrators had chanted “Freedom is not a foreign conspiracy or call to sectarian division,” i

It probably flows better in Arabic

haha

Do the Libyan rebels want a ceasefire now because they don't expect NATO to be as agressive as the US in bombing?

ABC news:

Coalition forces "captured all of what we may call the low-hanging fruit, the armored columns, those targets in obvious positions on open roads, sitting on open terrain," Shashank Joshi of the British think tank Royal United Services Institute told Reuters.

"What we may now be left with is heavy weaponry on the ground that's more difficult to find and isolate because it is next to urban targets," he said.

Cordesman said the dynamic could pose a challenge for NATO and European militaries which are not as well equipped as the U.S. with aerial surveillance technologies

NATO may have accidentally bombed the rebels. Meanwhile, hundreds of pro-democracy rebels in Ivory Coast massacred for trying to take down their own democracy-resisting strongman. Better keep those jet engines running, right? Especially if we want to keep global cocoa prices down.

All in all, i think it's going pretty well over there.

so: seif qaddafi leading libya during a transition to constitutional democracy?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/world/africa/04libya.html?hp

seems kinda... counterintuitive.

The idea also touches on longstanding differences among his sons. While Seif and Saadi have leaned toward Western-style economic and political openings, Colonel Qaddafi’s sons Khamis and Mutuassim are considered hard-liners. Khamis leads a fearsome militia focused on repressing internal unrest.

And Mutuassim, a national security adviser who also commands his own militia, has been considered a rival to Seif in the competition to succeed their father. But Saadi, who has drifted through careers as a professional soccer player, a military officer and a businessman, firmly backs the plan, an associate said

Can't someone just offer the whole family a reality tv show instead?

They already have a reality show, and we're watching it right now. It's called ... reality.

doh!

So the US is now sorta saying that Yemen's prez for life should go.

Speaking of reality shows, they should just have Yemen dude and Qaddafi swap countries. Like, Nation Swap. Just to shake things up, see what happens.

The UK is gonna give rebels fancy communication equipment. This is to help prevent further air strikes on the wrong people as well as to allow communication among the rebels. But the UK is not ready to give them weapons yet either.

Meanwhile, hundreds of pro-democracy rebels in Ivory Coast massacred for trying to take down their own democracy-resisting strongman. Better keep those jet engines running, right? Especially if we want to keep global cocoa prices down.

UN and French troops are shooting people there too if it makes you feel any better

lol france is pissed these days

Libyan rebels near Brega and Libyan civilians are pissed that NATO is not doing enough to help them.

Those Libyans don't understand the delicate intricacies of not-wars. We are at not-war in Libya. If we were at war, they'd be super-pissed at us for coming in, steamrolling the country, flattening the infrastructure, taking over the government and trying to build schools for girls.

What do the "why Libya, why not Ivory Coast?" people make of the Ivory Coast intervention? Do they like this one? Seems to be working.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/africa/2011/04/110405_jj_latest.shtml

I dunno what those guys think, but the tide was already against Gbagbo, and has been for months. The UN intervention has (hopefully) reduced the cost in life and time before a solution. But it was still different from Libya where those holding power had the upper hand.

What do the "why Libya, why not Ivory Coast?" people make of the Ivory Coast intervention? Do they like this one? Seems to be working.

well i'm confused as to why intervention in ivory coast is so easy to do and get away with, whereas libya requires a whole host of subterranean diplomatic agreements, quid-pro-quos, resolutions etc etc. is it because libya is closer to europe as the crow flies?

Arab countries have much more global political influence than African ones.

Gbagbo lost his election, the AU condemned him, the US condemned him, the UN condemned him, he's batshit but w/o as deep a power base, the only ppl realistically who can intervene are France under the aegis of the UN, Nigeria just postponed local and presidential elections so they're unlikely to want to get involved. Libya, otoh, is close to France, Italy and Malta and it's a major supplier of oil to Italy but also to France, did I mention that the European economy isn't exactly flourishing right now, PIGS and all? Yet interference is far more risky politically and the dividing lines are less clear.

NY Times:

BREGA, Libya — Forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi battered rebel fighters on the road outside this strategic oil town on Tuesday with rocket fire, mortars and artillery, driving them many miles to the north and leaving them in disarray.

A day after a senior Libyan rebel leader had criticized NATO for “a delay in reacting and lack of response to what’s going on on the ground,” there was still no sign of the air power that two weeks ago seemed to have the loyalist forces reeling toward the Qaddafi stronghold of Surt, more than 100 miles to the west.

BBC guy reporting on that retreat, and how the assault took them by surprise, also mentioned seeing 2 Gaddafi armoured cars smouldering in the road after an airstrike. Also claims by the UN that they've taken out a third of Gaddafi's forces.

The NATO coalition shouldn't have bothered attacking at all. The point was to prevent bombardment of civilians, not to pick winners. The ideal (given stated aims) would be an enforced stalemate wherein all transport between 17 and 19 East longitude is considered in violation. Let them stew and find a dignified exit for Gaddafi and a federalized constitution for the rebels.

it's the "picking winners" part that i really really really have a problem with, even if i were totally on board with the winners picked

Is this one of those bombing the trains to Auschwitz type dilemmas?

It's not picking winners, it's choosing sides - and there is a difference, even if not in outcome. Hell, even Gandhi stressed the importance of choosing sides in WWII. Failure to act is to support Gadaffi. Partitioning the country would take more force than removing him. The problem remains that the world has not acted enough, rather than acting too little.

i hear all that

I'm with Dowd on this. If you allow Gaddaffi's troops to retake towns hence life will be dangerous for civilians in those towns. Jeeez Tracer, you're still worried that these rebels might be worse than Gaddaffi.

what?? when did i ever say that?

really, i mean i DO understand that being opposed to western airstrikes is equal to supporting gaddafi's right to kill civilians in cold blood, but no one should have to bring up hitler to make their arguments

I probably wouldn't put it as strongly as saying that opposition is "equal to supporting gaddafi's right to kill civilians in cold blood" - it may enable his actions, but it doesn't condone them. I guess it gets a bit too act and omissions doctrine at this point.

JUST A LITTLE BIT

In the case of Ivory Coast, it's been an intervention months in the making, plus a much more clear cut idea of the opposition: the is, the guy that won the national election and the millions that support him, vs. the despot refusing to concede who has nationalized the banks, cocoa industry, etc., to consolidate power and fund his side. Libya just seems so much more ambiguous/amorphous, with "Qaddafi is a bad guy" the only thing obvious to everyone. Just about every other aspect of it is a degree of guesswork.

So, with regard to Ivory Coast, I'm fine with intervention. Though the French, obviously, owe a much greater debt to and have a much deeper relationship with Ivory Coast that we do with Libya.

^sorry for all the typos, packing a kid's lunch while I wrote this

Re Ivory Coast, here's an article from the Nation on how the exploitive role played by American agribusiness companies like Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland (in not paying farmers fairly for cocoa) will continue to be a problem there even if/when the guy who lost the election finally leaves

http://www.thenation.com/article/159707/roots-cote-divoire-crisis

NPR this morning covered Libya and Yemen from the perspective of those in the US government who are trying to stop Al Queda. Sadly it seems that civilians in both of those countries are irrelevent pawns. All of the military 'experts' just assume that changes in governments in those 2 countries will help Al Queda in Libya(alleged to exist based on prior reports) and Al Queda in the Arabian Peninsula(AQAP gave us the underwear bomber). There was no discussion of economic aid or anything else for the people in Yemen, just how the US has been unable to use Predator drones in recent months to target AQAP.

Josh in Chicago, do you have a child?