2008 Primaries Thread

I wouldn't give Obama an edge. With a national primary on the 5th, most superdelegates already going for Clinton, and no fundraising advantage for either candidate, Hillary has at least a moderate advantage on name recognition alone. Even if she loses SC and NV.

i really dont get the mccain fear - hes on the mostest wrong side of the most important issue of the election, hes old dead-looking and weird, and the republican party is at a 30 year nadir.

And believe me, I have some idea of the Obama campaign's strategy. I have put in time at the NY office and attended their leadership training program. The idea was IA + NH = narrow win over Clinton on February 5th. Even with IA and NH they knew the national primary would be really rough.

no if she looses sc and nv obama is pretty clearly in the drivers seat.

That's what they'll so, but I don't think they'll believe it. They're tearing out their hair this morning trying to figure out what to do, I guarantee it.

yah sure but theyre a campaign - thats their job. obv they have to be completely on top of their game to make this work.

Mccain is on the mostest wrong side of the most important issue of the election

Haven't you heard? "The surge is working."

anyhow its compelling that we have races on both sides that look like they wont be decided til super tuesday.

especially for the tv people.

By the fall people will be saying, "The sure worked, so can we go home now?" Not, "The surge worked, now we don't have to go! I hope we get to stick around for another 100 years!"

morbs the polls have for a while consistently shown majorities or pluralities for these views: the war is the most important issue of the election, the surge is working, the war was a mistake, the troops should come home now.

so mccain is one for three on the most important issue of the election and 0 for 1 on the issue that the next president will actually have to take action on.

hes been saying shit like being in iraq for 100 years would be fine for ever and hes gonna get killt w/it in the ge if he makes it that far.

Another good thing to consider... if Obama is VP he is President of the Senate. Not bad.

He SHOULD be killed on the "100 years" thing. I have my doubts.

And.. here we go again! Dowd with the Lifetime movie crap. Chris Matthews was on MSNBC this morning saying Hillary wouldn't have even won her Senate seat in NY if it weren't for Bill messing around and people feeling sorry for her! Then he went back to drooling over Obama's beautiful speeches and how he was so tall and lanky and would just glide onstage. (Not kidding.) What an asshole.

We agree.

he should get a job more suited to his interests, like judging the Miss America pageant

Romney not cooked, Dr. M. But he has to break through soon.

In a workplace context, Obama may have reminded women of under-qualified hotshots who come along and get the big job with less experience because they're cooler and have more rapport with the boss and are, after all, men.

No shit, Sherlock.. :)

That's the thing, Daria. Obama avoids that problem when he stays ultra-sober and serious. But when he doesn't -- as I argue above (and Alfred disagrees with) -- he falls right into this trap of looking like the underqualified cool kid who is succeeding b/c he's ''one of the guys.'' But don't bet on Obama making these mistakes often (if it was a mistake; I see Alfred's point, even if I disagree).

Oh, I know. It's far from over. Probably the Obama-Edwards team up at the debate didn't help either one.. Anything can still happen but I think Obama's got more to worry about now, he's a momentum candidate more than a policy wonk. He'll probably win South Carolina.

its interesting how some discount charisma as unsubstantial and unjustly consequential. while having someone in charge thats sliding by on it alone is obv a dangerous situation - its not a coincidence that all great leaders have it in spades. theres more there than just the shine.

But that's just it, Daniel: Obama's remark (and tone) was too urbane for a fratboy.

It was his interaction with Edwards at HRC's expense and his football reference that really reminded me of a frat-boy. The ''likeable enough'' line did too, but to a lesser extent. What that line did, I think, is make Obama seem snide -- maybe petty -- which doesn't jibe with his image. I do not think he'll make that mistake again (also b/c I think he and HRC will both try to sound like insurgents -- not frontrunners -- for a while).

I really wish you ppl talked about policy instead of all this sports analysis, but I guess that horse left the barn around the final Reagan-Mondale debate...

Open primaries are a really vile thing.

morbs this is the primaries thread i dont want to keep having to tell you

uh ok maybe not like "insurgents", dude.

T/S: Clinton/Obama Vs. McCain/Huckabee

I missed the football reference, but then I actually missed watching all the debates because the Pitt-Jax wild card game that evening was a lot more exciting.

there is no way mcain has the republican nom locked up. its totally wide open. ghouliani is waiting in the weeds. romney is super-rich. huckabee is counting on the blue-collar-comedy endorsement (though there is a larrythecableguy/fred thompson.jpg out there).

under-qualified hotshots who come along and get the big job with less experience because they're cooler and have more rapport with the boss and are, after all, men.

some people call those "interpersonal skills"

http://mizian.com.ne.kr/englishwiz/library/friends/images/carnegie.jpg

Pitt-Jax wild card game that evening was a lot more exciting

Exciting only to the extent that the Jags go on to beat the Patriots.

Yes, but this is a democracy. You can't just win by getting the votes of the dudes in upper management.

See that's why I watched Jax with such interest, I was more worried when they were killing the Steelers in the first half but Garrard didn't play that great and both teams made some really dumb mistakes. It'll be a great match up though.

Just somebody beat the Patriots, plz.

this is the primaries thread

now i gotta figure out who to vote for, lol

Well, Obama informed everyone in the debate that the Redskins lost (I was at a bar on the Hill with a bunch of dejected Skins fans and a bunch of soon-to-be dejected Steelers fans).. hell the biggest headlines in DC papers are STILL "Joe Gibbs retires."

dude's gonna focus on a more interesting sport now?

i forgot to include "the patriarchy" in that list of institutions gabbneb trusts

don't forget "the system" TH

also, "society"

not to mention "they" and "them"

(big xpost) clinton/obama sounds ghastly to me - would obama be used as some kind of hope-envoy?. mcain/huckabee would give the dems a landslide so long as they don't fuck things up.

and Rolling Stone magazine

big ups the RIAA

tracer, didn't you essentially say upthread you don't like the people voting for the democratic nominee? do you support the party bosses making backroom deals? why do you suppose the primary system came about?

no, what i said was that i don't like not having an identifiable party leader. and i don't like having a bloody 1+ years of intramural fighting right before the election. in many - most? - other countries, the parties choose their own leaders. that way, people always know who the leader of your party is, and that person has gotten in the papers on every issue even if their party doesn't hold the presidency.

my perfect system? keep the primaries but hold them one year AFTER the elections rather than one year before. that way the nominee is chosen and decided, and can then lead the opposition effectively for three years up until the next election.

no, what i said was that i don't like not having an identifiable party leader

Tracer doesn't like the separation of powers, but does like party bosses

Here we go again: Diebold rigging claims

http://drunkardslamppost.wordpress.com/2008/01/09/diebold-and-new-hampshire/

i don't like having a bloody 1+ years of intramural fighting right before the election.

im actually starting to appreciate our endless election process as a proving ground for the candidates - it might actually make them better at their jobs