Thank you
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:49 (eleven years ago) link
Dude, of course they could win. If you're already thinking they WILL win you've already given up. Relax.
― Ned Raggett, Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:50 (eleven years ago) link
71.6% Obama wins acc to Nate: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:51 (eleven years ago) link
also taking a brief survey this morning of the republicans in my streetcar suburbs neighborhood synagogue in flipstate (ha) PA, no one is excited by Ryan pick, even among the Republicans who knew who he was.
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:53 (eleven years ago) link
They might. I still think, as good a two weeks as it's been for Obama, and as hopelessly inept as Romney's been so far (with no real reason to think he'll suddenly get any better), and as dicey a pick as Ryan is, that Obama's chances are still basically a house of cards--the house gets higher week by week, but one really bad jobs report (in the red, I mean) and who knows?
― clemenza, Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
like, if you're worried bc ryan is a scary VPa) no one votes for the VPb) he's not a particularly strong VP and certainly not as scary as Palin in 2008c) picking ryan afaict has basically written off florida as R state since dems can scaremonger old jews into thinking romney will take away gov programs andd) romney can't win w/out florida
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:55 (eleven years ago) link
Florida. Oh, that's reassuring! :)
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:58 (eleven years ago) link
from optics pov romney picked ryan bc he doesn't believe he can win w/ conventional VP (and he has gotten himself confused and thinking ryan is not conventional). why believe romney could win more than romney apparently does?
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 22:59 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know, that's the thing, his weird bluffing strategy is psyching me out!
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:00 (eleven years ago) link
But that's where Romney's ineptitude and befuddlement come into play: he thinks he can't win, therefore he must be considered the favourite at this point.
― clemenza, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:02 (eleven years ago) link
what weird bluffing strategy? he's acting like a loser bc he is a loser
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:02 (eleven years ago) link
Like he is so confident that people will eat shit. I think his advisors have been reading pick up artist strategy manuals and applying them to the political realm
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:03 (eleven years ago) link
will PAY to eat shit
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:05 (eleven years ago) link
or maybe just reading the art of war
as filtered through a randian interpretation
counting on people voting aspirationally. people love a success story. what was obama? a lawyer from a broken home? romney is a successful businessman. nuff said
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:07 (eleven years ago) link
i think you're reading leftist critique as romney's own pov. this is all conjecture + conventional wisdom, but it scans okay to me: he's an ambitious dude who wants more than anything to be president. his advisors told him that at this stage in the game obama is going to stomp him. he needs a bold choice. right-wingers seem to love ryan (tho i'm skeptical about his actual reach w/ rl voters who don't post on FR or read blogs), and maybe it's a shocking enough pick (it's not) to take focus off bain + taxes. romney took their advice. he doesn't give a shit about ryan's economic beliefs, just about whether ryan can get voters to the polls (and maybe if he'll give romney political cover if they lose).
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:08 (eleven years ago) link
What are you going to do if McCain wins?
― buzza, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:11 (eleven years ago) link
(and maybe if he'll give romney political cover if they lose).
ok, that does make sense. very cynical post-palin debacle entry in the playbook
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:15 (eleven years ago) link
Acc. to 538, McCain isn't gonna win. So I don't know what people are worried about. Apparently no one has come back from a deficit in the polls this big this late in the game? Except, like, the Giants beat the Patriots last year. So I guess all bets are off.
― Mordy, Monday, September 29, 2008 12:16 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark
LULZ
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:18 (eleven years ago) link
giants beat the patriots again & i bet that still won't have any impact on the race
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:19 (eleven years ago) link
<3 eli manning but ugh those games
― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:22 (eleven years ago) link
This Slate article definitely makes the case the Ryan reinvigorates Romney's campaign a bit:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/08/ryan_vp_pick_romney_s_choice_makes_both_conservatives_and_democrats_happy_who_will_be_disappointed_.html
But is an unapologetic conservative as VP really going to help Romney get voters in potential swing states? Doubtful.
― Confounded, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:25 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/11/a-risky-rationale-behind-romneys-choice-of-ryan/#more-33035
Evidently, it did not do that. The ability to perform an honest self-assessment is rare for all of us. Mr. Romney, in making this outlook, may have been aided by his background in seeking to turn around distressed companies...Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already. But Mr. Romney, the turnaround artist, decided that he needed to turn around his own campaign.
Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already. But Mr. Romney, the turnaround artist, decided that he needed to turn around his own campaign.
Also, let's remember that the way Romney profitably turned around companies was by liquidating their assets, bleeding them dry, and then leaving them to die while he made off with the loot. Maybe he picked Ryan because he knew it would turn on hardcore right-wingers who would fill his coffers w/ plunder and then in the dust + smoke of a losing campaign and staggering shocked party, he'll slip out the back door.
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:29 (eleven years ago) link
were they kidding with that music when he came out or what?! sounds like something off Team America.
― piscesx, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:37 (eleven years ago) link
Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election
― buzza, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:39 (eleven years ago) link
Also this will likely make you feel better: http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/106035/picking-ryan-isnt-bold-its-highly-risk-averse
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:43 (eleven years ago) link
i think if nate had been around in 2004 we would've known
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:44 (eleven years ago) link
Mordy, I think you are giving people far too much credit, and assuming that they sit there carefully weighing out the presumed benefits and liabilities from respective candidates and then making an "informed choice"
The frothing levels of racism and ignorance throughout the country are not something that you are going to encounter taking an informal poll at your neighborhood synagogue
Plus of course people feel so beaten up by the economy that their minds revert to primitive psychological states. If you're looking for a father figure to step into the role of the king who will save us, and if you follow a messianic religion to begin with, then of course you will bypass rationality in favor of glomming onto everything romney advertises as being
Otherwise you are voting for the guy who hasn't done anything particularly dramatic during his campaign (killing Osama bin Laden was no D-Day or Super Bowl moment... among other things it was too "elitist" and dry of an operation, not to mention anti-climactic, for people to properly rally behind in a ticker-tape parade kind of way)
People are looking for boldness and dramatic sweeping acts. There's certainly a lot of stuff I resent about what Obama has done or failed to do, but he is too dignified to make the sort of crass gestures or pander in the way that Romney-Ryan will over the next several weeks. Hence my fear
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:49 (eleven years ago) link
I think crass, pandering gestures are basically outside the very limited supply of social skills Romney has managed to acquire for this campaign. Really don't see him being able to pull it off.
― Doctor Casino, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:52 (eleven years ago) link
del, turn your attention to something more important, like finding me a place where I can watch the World Series online now that MLB caught on to Chanfeed.
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:52 (eleven years ago) link
also, if they get elected, the Dems can just block everything REALLY awful like they always do, riiiiight?
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:54 (eleven years ago) link
lol, god willing
also: http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/baseball.html
― dell (del), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:54 (eleven years ago) link
have you looked at the polls?
romney is not popular. who likes a success story when it begins with the person being already rich?
― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:54 (eleven years ago) link
Killing Osama bin Laden was bold, decisive, + momentous. And Obama is crass as any politician, he's just a talented politician. Romney is really bad at being a politician. Ppl on both sides of political spectrum intuitively grasp that he's an empty suit - that's why he had to pick Ryan, to signal to the right-wing that he is really one of them and not just an opportunist.
― Mordy, Saturday, 11 August 2012 23:56 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know, guys. In the past 12 hours or so I have somehow managed to convince myself that Romney-Ryan are going to win.
I think that ever since Reagan people haven eaten up a many times-over distorted version of the Horatio Alger myth. Obama is certainly savvy and yes i supposed even crass in given moments, but he will never garner the popular appeal of a Romney. Because. Populism is the reverse of what it was 100 or so years ago due to somewhere during the Reagan years the democrats and their sympathizers adopting an increasingly quietistic attitude, while somehow the right have become increasingly cynical w/r/t their media presence, increasingly not ashamed to be shrill, increasingly not embarrassed to play to the lowest common denominator
Clinton was able to take office mostly b/c he ended up running against two successive candidates who were severely charisma-impaired. clinton was ridiculously charismatic. whatever mojo obama enjoys is actually lost in the present climate. people want to look up to someone who will repeat a bootstraps mythos, "all is well with capitalism in its present form" a la romney. they don't want to hear about compromise or reality in any of its forms. hearing the keywords "prosperity" is enough. that sounds like a painfully simplistic analysis, and granted i am a painfully simplistic unnuanced guy, but i know of what i speak of. president romney is a given. the real question is survival strategies three or four years down the road
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 00:13 (eleven years ago) link
I think you're overreacting just a bit here. If people responded to rich candidates that way, we'd have had a President Steve Forbes by now. Romney is hardly a Horatio Alger story,
― o. nate, Sunday, 12 August 2012 00:47 (eleven years ago) link
Romney and his people know how to couch the mythology in the right terms. and romney has the unrelenting ambition. and looks "presidential". forbes and others didn't have that going for them
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 00:51 (eleven years ago) link
of course he is far from a horatio alger story but he knows how to present his story in a way that eliminates any ignoble details
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 00:53 (eleven years ago) link
I dunno. I was pretty convinced Romney was going to lose as of yesterday, and Ryan doesn't seem to me the kind of VP pick who's going to move the needle. It's possible the economy could fall in the toilet between now and November, but it seems more likely to me that it's going to continue slowly gaining steam, housing prices will slowly tick up, etc. Things are better now that they were a year ago. I think most voters probably feel like the economy is moving in the right direction, if a bit more slowly than they'd like.
― o. nate, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:00 (eleven years ago) link
i hope so. and granted i am being somewhat trolly. but i honestly got scared today b/c i think that as horrible as ryan is there is a majority of ppl who would turn out to the polls who don't care or genuinely are into him. so i am scared and genuinely disheartened by romney's bluff or whatever it is. if he had picked a less obnoxious person then i would feel like there was hope for this country.
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:04 (eleven years ago) link
it's just such a "fuck you", i don't even know how to read it otherwise. :(
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:05 (eleven years ago) link
romney believes in nothing including giving u a fuck you
― Mordy, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:06 (eleven years ago) link
Romney basically had no choice. Ryan isn't going to boost his appeal at all, but I could see a Pawlenty or Portman actually driving it down further.
― Johnny Fever, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:07 (eleven years ago) link
― dell (del), Saturday, August 11, 2012 8:53 PM Bookmark
Have you seen this guy? Are we talking about the same Mitt Romney? He sucks at presenting his story in a way that eliminates any ignoble details - - - hence this entire tax kerfluffle. He doesn't know how to make stories go away, he doesn't know how to shift narratives, he doesn't know how to make lemonade out of lemons, anything.
Like, in my life I'm pretty well insulated from rich guys so maybe they all have this problem. The whole "lacking the 'common touch'" thing - I figured that was sorta bullshit, like, what exactly is a "common touch"? Well, whatever it is, Romney definitely doesn't have one. I honestly feel kind of bad for the guy at this point, he's so totally awkward and bad at everything that's involved in campaigning. At least Bush I sort of seemed like a genuine nerdy rich guy and Bush II like a genuine fratty jackass rich guy.
I can't figure out how he ever won elected office in Massachusetts. I did see one story that mentioned in his old campaigns he would talk about his Mormon faith in an effort to educate people about what his church is about and that they're not a creepy cult or whatever. Politics aside, I could imagine voting for that - even if it backfired, it seems like something a, you know, human being, who earnestly cares about certain things, would do. The effort to make himself a streamlined, doesn't-offend-anybody Republican has made him uneasy in his own skin.
Remember, this is the guy who won his nomination by being the presumptive fallback after everybody that any segment of the Republican electorate actually, actively liked was proven to not animate enough of that base. If he could actually excite people, he would have locked the thing up way back at the beginning.
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:15 (eleven years ago) link
xpost
yeah.
it's just so sad to me. because. as someone who was creeped out by having to say the pledge of allegiance as a kid i still feel like america is such an amazing country on so many levels. i complain about it all the time to myself and feel resentful, but it really is, and could be such an amazing inspirational place. i still feel grateful i was born here, even though i have very little respect for ongoing patriotic tropes
anway i guess the gwb years were just that demoralizing that it's tough to recover from that sense that everything is fucked forever
i dunno. maybe in 15-20 years or so things will finally turn around. or romney actually will win, and things will get dystopic so quickly for such a huge segment of the population that things will inevitably turn around.
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:17 (eleven years ago) link
it's tough to recover from that sense that everything is fucked forever
Don't bother. It is.
― Johnny Fever, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:18 (eleven years ago) link
will never happen, obama is a better republican than anyone the GOP has turned out in 30 years
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:25 (eleven years ago) link
I can't figure out how he ever won elected office in Massachusetts.
Having watched him for a year now (I didn't pay too much attention to the Republican nomination in '08), completely agree; it's a mystery.
Remember, this is the guy who won his nomination by being the presumptive fallback after everybody that any segment of the Republican electorate actually, actively liked was proven to not animate enough of that base.
Yes, but more than that even, by absolutely eviscerating Gingrich and Santorum under an avalanche of money the minute they got close (not that doing so was especially difficult). I can't remember who said it--Wiegel, maybe--but I agree that there'll be an accepted view come out of the nomination process this year, that Romney had it locked up the whole way, that's just not true. Going into Michigan, there was a real chance that the whole thing was about to unravel on him.
― clemenza, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:26 (eleven years ago) link
In 2002, Republican Acting Governor Jane Swift's administration was plagued by political missteps and personal scandals.[149] Many Republicans viewed her as a liability and considered her unable to win a general election.[153] Prominent party figures – as well as the White House – wanted Romney to run for governor,[151][154] and the opportunity appealed to him for its national visibility.[155] One poll taken at that time showed Republicans favoring Romney over Swift by more than 50 percentage points.[156] On March 19, 2002, Swift announced she would not seek her party's nomination, and hours later Romney declared his candidacy,[156] for which he would face no opposition in the primary.[157] In June 2002, the Massachusetts Democratic Party challenged Romney's eligibility to run for governor, noting that state law required seven years' consecutive residence and that Romney had filed his state tax returns as a Utah resident in 1999 and 2000.[158][159] In response, the Massachusetts State Ballot Law Commission unanimously ruled that he had maintained sufficient financial and personal ties to Massachusetts and was therefore an eligible candidate.[160] Romney again ran as a political outsider.[149] He played down his party affiliation,[152] saying he was "not a partisan Republican" but rather a "moderate" with "progressive" views.[161] He touted his private sector experience as qualifying him for addressing the state's fiscal problems[157] and stressed his ability to obtain federal funds for the state, giving his Olympics record as evidence.[141][144][162] He proposed to reorganize the state government while eliminating waste, fraud, and mismanagement.[152][163] The campaign was the first to use microtargeting techniques, in which fine-grained groups of voters were reached with narrowly tailored messaging.[164] To overcome the image that had damaged him in the 1994 Senate race – that of a wealthy corporate buyout specialist out of touch with the needs of regular people – a series of "work days" were staged throughout the campaign, in which Romney performed blue-collar jobs such as herding cows and baling hay, unloading a fishing boat, and hauling garbage.[163][165][166] Television ads highlighting the effort, as well as one portraying his family in gushing terms and showing him shirtless,[165] received a poor public response and contributed to his being behind his Democratic opponent, Massachusetts State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien, in polls as late as mid-October.[163][166] He rebounded with ads that accused O'Brien of being a failed watchdog for state pension fund losses in the stock market and that associated her husband, a former lobbyist, with the Enron scandal.[152][166] During the election he contributed over $6 million – a state record at the time – to the nearly $10 million raised for his campaign overall.[167][168] Romney was elected governor on November 5, 2002, with 50 percent of the vote to O'Brien's 45 percent.[
― scott seward, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:30 (eleven years ago) link
so you know he had to sling a lot of mud and spend a LOT of money to win by 5%.
― scott seward, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:31 (eleven years ago) link
Dr. Casino, yeah i know. In fact both Bushes were more sympathetic in their own ways when compared to Romney, even as blechh as they both were
and yeah i know romney was the guy that ended up looking better than herman cain or michelle bachmann or newt or whatever. even the staunchest of republican poltico talking heads dislike him. plus he's not a "real" christian which i'm sure doesn't help with so much of the christian far right (to say nothing of nominating a roman catholic running mate)
but, i feel like it's expecting the audience at home to research olympic athletes' statistics before settling in and betting on them or supporting them. people don't give a shit. they just want to have their prejudices confirmed.
i hate to be a cheeseball and quote charles bukowski, BUT, "A whole goddamned nation of assholes driving automobiles, eating, having babies, doing everything in the worst way possible, like voting for the presidential candidate who reminded them most of themselves" is not so far off?? people will vote based on personal projection, confirming their prejudices and fears. given that, and given the political climate in 2012 i'm thinking that there is definitely a majority who will happily vote for romney and can easily dismiss obama as being an egghead or whatever. forty years ago, the position the media occupied would have made a difference, but now people just take in whatever they want to hear.
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:32 (eleven years ago) link
haha, prob most convincing post on this thread except possibly ned's
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:33 (eleven years ago) link
a series of "work days" were staged throughout the campaign, in which Romney performed blue-collar jobs such as herding cows and baling hay, unloading a fishing boat, and hauling garbage.[163][165][166] Television ads highlighting the effort, as well as one portraying his family in gushing terms and showing him shirtless,[165] received a poor public response and contributed to his being behind his Democratic opponent,
omg this sounds so terrible. Obama should just run clips of these ads.
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:47 (eleven years ago) link
@ dell - - I definitely hear where you're coming from there but I think you're undervaluing the way in which people's emotional, irrational instincts will lead them to dislike Romney because he also reminds them in tons of ways of people they personally hate. It's like Lumberg is running for President - nobody likes the dude in the suit who fires you and tries to make awkward chuckley jokes about it, they just don't. Especially in the current economic/emotional climate.
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:48 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, i hope so. i just feel alarmed based on conversations with people i've had who think that if obama is re-elected will take away what little they have because he is so socialist. but somehow romney will propel them upwards at least a couple of tax brackets because initiative
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 01:57 (eleven years ago) link
They're always going to think that. They'll either internalize their eventual failure and blame themselves and become bitter or weave conspiracy theories and blame others and become bitter. If that's the kind of pleasure they get out of existence, it won't be changed except by extreme circumstances and/or death.
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 02:01 (eleven years ago) link
America is a lousy country, but it had some promise 40+ years ago.
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:11 (eleven years ago) link
Nostalgic for the Nixon years eh?
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:22 (eleven years ago) link
ned thanks i think someone was trying to tell me similar off-board and what you're saying rings true
dr morbius i hear you but give it 15 years or so and i think things will come back into swing. some stuff dies hard. people like you who are a little older than me, i don't know how you deal with it. really heartbreaking. i mean, yeah things have always been shit, but not quite this much?
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:29 (eleven years ago) link
1964 and 1965 had their hopeful moments, tho I don't remember those years. August 9, 1974 too.
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:32 (eleven years ago) link
i almost wish i didn't know you weren't oliver stone
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:33 (eleven years ago) link
my pharmacopeia can't compete with his.
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:41 (eleven years ago) link
how long until SNL starts up again? is hader going to play ryan?
― seriously, THIS GUY (daria-g), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:51 (eleven years ago) link
A Salon subheadline:
A Romney win just got scarier -- he'd have a mandate and a partner determined to repeal the New Deal
You've got to be fucking shitting me. How much of the New Deal have Bubba, W, and Bam not dismantled?
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 03:54 (eleven years ago) link
I miss the part where they sent ppl to just take photos of everything, in case we needed them for something
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Sunday, 12 August 2012 04:04 (eleven years ago) link
this very morning i checked 538 to reassure myself! nate was freakishly accurate in 08.
― NASCAR, surfing, raising chickens, owning land (zachlyon), Sunday, 12 August 2012 08:02 (eleven years ago) link
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 12 August 2012 02:47 (8 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
run a clip of romney hauling some huge garbage bags down the street w/a caption WHERE DOES MITT KEEP HIS MONEY?
― , Blogger (schlump), Sunday, 12 August 2012 10:20 (eleven years ago) link
yeah this is the underlying thing, no matter what the candidates' names are, no matter what they say, no matter what wolf blitzer and john king and rush limbaugh and amy goodman and steven colbert focus on - it doesn't matter. people revert to this primal judgment that republicans will loosen up the rules and help u make $ and that democrats will increase your taxes.
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Sunday, 12 August 2012 10:22 (eleven years ago) link
it is just frustrating when those bromides are ingrained enough that they can be leant upon even while being demonstrably untrue, cf ryan being understood as a 'deficit hawk' on account of his bluster. from harper's this month:
From Harper's August 2012:
-- Percentage increase in average annual federal spending during the Obama Administration: 2.4
-- Rank of that rate of increase among the lowest under any president since Truman: 1
― , Blogger (schlump), Sunday, 12 August 2012 11:01 (eleven years ago) link
del, how old are you?
Romney and his people know how to couch the mythology in the right terms
haha no they don't! And there's no evidence they know how. I probably hang out with more Florida Republicans than most people on this thread and they all to a man think Romney sucks and is going to lose.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 12:06 (eleven years ago) link
Romney picking Ryan is in some ways a, yes, conservative (in the literal sense) act of desperation. Romney, Inc. knew it needed an infusion of energy, and in picking Ryan it may have gotten it. However, the only energy it really drives up is in the press and in the radical small government wing of the Republican party. But many (all?) of Ryan's big ideas are national campaign kryptonite and Romney is not adept enough a campaigner to defend those ideas. Now, Ryan couches his crazy ideas in a safe, seemingly reasonable package, which often fools the average voters (as do shiny objects and free donuts) but now that he's been given the role of attack dog he's just going to come off a big dick. In fact, I look forward to the Biden/Ryan debate, where the former's experience will give him an upper hand, and where Ryan's assholery will give him license to hammer that the Palin pick did not. Attack dog vs. attack dog, but alpha dog is not muzzled. (I look forward to the Obama/Romney debates, too, but for different reasons).
It is kind of interesting that Ryan sort of fills the Cheney mold - the idea man as VP - but like I mentioned on another thread, I get a real sense of strategic preservation from the guy. Which may be better than Romney's cowardly self-preservation, which totally hinders him as a campaigner, but maybe Ryan will evolve on the trail.
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 12 August 2012 14:01 (eleven years ago) link
entire premise of this thread is lol
― the choogler and the chosen one (Shakey Mo Collier), Sunday, 12 August 2012 14:54 (eleven years ago) link
Alfred OTM Romney and his campaign are hapless oafs, it's pretty clear at this point
alfred i am 39
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 16:06 (eleven years ago) link
Dude you're just younger than me by two years!
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 16:22 (eleven years ago) link
facebork posts last year from rabidly catholic pseudofriends: 'it doesn't matter what people are do with birth control, the bishops are right, we must always heed the teaching authority of the church'
facebork posts this year: 'the bishops were wrong about paul ryan's budget, it is their reflexive left-wing bias, it is immoral to impose massive debt on the next gen'
― j., Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:04 (eleven years ago) link
thr Catholic 'rabids' tend to ignore papal complaints about the justifiability of recent US wars too. They are the real "cafeteria Catholics."
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:08 (eleven years ago) link
I can't remember who said it--Wiegel, maybe--but I agree that there'll be an accepted view come out of the nomination process this year, that Romney had it locked up the whole way, that's just not true. Going into Michigan, there was a real chance that the whole thing was about to unravel on him.
Romney did have it locked up the whole way, and anyone who think the people who run the GOP would have let somebody like Santorum be the nominee is nuts IMO
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:13 (eleven years ago) link
true, the "voting" was all pantomime, the mechanism was set for Willard
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:19 (eleven years ago) link
Romney had everything in his favor the whole way, and I agree that things became really unwinnable for Santorum way before the latter bowed out, but I feel like "locked" should be reserved for a serious no-competition deal, like Gore vs. Bradley, or even W's 2000 campaign, where there were a lot of sideshow contenders keeping things going but the "mechanism" never once faltering. It was possible for Romney to lose, IMO.
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:21 (eleven years ago) link
they would've changed the rules if it came to that.
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:29 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan is a pretty bad choice for winning 2012, I would have pushed for Sen. Marco Rubio from Florida. That said, the Republican establishment has been grooming Ryan for the national stage since at least 2000, and I think the establishment is hedging 2012 by elevating Ryan to the national stage for a 2016 run. There are a lot of things that will probably go wrong that are largely out of a second Obama administration's control (peak oil, euro breakup, Japanese debt crisis, etc), so I can see the strategy.
I kinda like Ryan, as he was one of the few national figures that was willing to endorse the political kryptonite of entitlement cuts in the early part of last decade. We will get entitlement cuts regardless, there simply isn't a large enough tax base to support current growth in Medicare and Social Security. Millionares can and should be taxed more, but there simply aren't enough of them to cover the demographic shift and health-care cost driven middle class entitlement growth (you can do the math too, using IRS statistics). To date no Democratic proposal I've seen really addresses this, so the Democratic plan is probably crisis austerity after Treasury interest rates bounce back to long term norms. As my hot-button issues are things that will really matter mid-century like greenhouse emissions and foreign policy arrogance, I'll vote for the lesser of evils (Obama) again.
― The Painter of Blight™ (Sanpaku), Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:45 (eleven years ago) link
I kinda like Ryan
fuck you, seriously
i fucking hate this country so much
just, fuck you.
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:48 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, ryan's endorsement of entitlement cuts isn't particularly sensible or noble as he's generally committed to gutting government services, breaking unions and disempowering the middle class.
― contenderizer, Sunday, 12 August 2012 17:58 (eleven years ago) link
'but at least he's talking about the issues!'
― j., Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:01 (eleven years ago) link
I've been saying this for about two years at this point, like a mantra, and first people refused to believe the first part, and now they keep doubting me on the second part:
It's gonna be Romney, and he's gonna lose.
The minute I looked at the parade of cartoon assholes lining up to run, I knew it was gonna be Romney. And the minute I saw Romney try to speak to human beings from Earth, I knew he was doomed. If you think he can convince people to vote for him and not against Obama, you're delusional. Romney's only chance - his only chance - is for the "fuck that nigger" vote to be way, way bigger than it was in 2008, and way bigger than any poll has indicated. It's just not there. He's gonna lose, and it's not even gonna be close. The margin's gonna be wider than it was versus McCain.
― 誤訳侮辱, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:03 (eleven years ago) link
if you pledge to never ever raise taxes for any reason and refuse to consider cutting military spending, you aren't being serious, you're being a dick xp
― mookieproof, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:06 (eleven years ago) link
terrorists
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:10 (eleven years ago) link
The math of looming entitlement shortfalls doesn't have a political bias. To date both political parties have largely just kicked the can down the road, or made things significantly worse (Medicare Part D, anyone)? I can't blame them, its political kryptonite. But there are a lot of bright people like former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker or Laurence Kotlikoff (both of whom intensely disdain both parties) that can walk the layperson through the actuarial math. If you need an economist from the political left try Isabel Sawhill.
All the recent fiscal disasters like Greece or California towns that promised more than it was possible for their tax base to support aren't particularly unusual (globally, or historically). They just got there first.
― The Painter of Blight™ (Sanpaku), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:11 (eleven years ago) link
I've been saying this for about two years at this point, like a mantra, and first people refused to believe the first part, and now they keep doubting me on the second part:It's gonna be Romney, and he's gonna lose. The minute I looked at the parade of cartoon assholes lining up to run, I knew it was gonna be Romney. And the minute I saw Romney try to speak to human beings from Earth, I knew he was doomed. If you think he can convince people to vote /for him/ and not /against Obama/, you're delusional. Romney's only chance - his /only/ chance - is for the "fuck that nigger" vote to be way, way bigger than it was in 2008, and way bigger than any poll has indicated. It's just not there. He's gonna lose, and it's not even gonna be close. The margin's gonna be wider than it was versus McCain.
The minute I looked at the parade of cartoon assholes lining up to run, I knew it was gonna be Romney. And the minute I saw Romney try to speak to human beings from Earth, I knew he was doomed. If you think he can convince people to vote /for him/ and not /against Obama/, you're delusional. Romney's only chance - his /only/ chance - is for the "fuck that nigger" vote to be way, way bigger than it was in 2008, and way bigger than any poll has indicated. It's just not there. He's gonna lose, and it's not even gonna be close. The margin's gonna be wider than it was versus McCain.
OTM
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:15 (eleven years ago) link
before the Ryan pick I was finally relegating myself to the idea that it was 50/50 and despite his utter incompetence as a campaigner Romney might win. admitting I had been in denial or overestimating the intelligence of the american public etc but for reasons I can't quite articulate now I'm feeling confident that Romney will continue to cripple himself with ineptitude (is that a word?) and Ryan will ultimately pull him down.
― (REAL NAME) (m coleman), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:21 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan isn't going to pull Mitt down; Ryan is going to pull himself up a la 2004 Edwards, as someone mentioned upthread. This whole situation cements Romney as the Republican Kerry, which we already knew anyway.
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:25 (eleven years ago) link
Just trying to coherently defend Ryan's numerous Newt-like Big Ideas will prove Mitt's (further) undoing. I know he probably picked Ryan as a guy who can hold his own, but I wonder if it occurred to Mitt that he's going to have to hold Ryan's own (so to speak), too.
As for Ryan's future, his consistency will be his undoing. He's been hammering at the same ideas for so long that by the time he gets around to running for Pres, if he does, they'll not only be old ideas, but old failed ideas.
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
...but Kerry came rather close to winning, ya know. xp
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:29 (eleven years ago) link
was it Tomasky who wrote the article last week arguing that there's a good possibility Obama does win in a landslide?
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
I often forget that Kerry is still a senator.
The election is really so close, and the Mittmentum is not in the candidate's favor.
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
Like, Mitt could only win if he brought Osama Bin Laden back to life, reminded people who he was again, and then killed him a second time. And then his numbers would just as quickly plumet for carelessly reanimating him.
the GOP can only win if it brings Reagan back to life.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan (who I first campaigned against in 2000 while a graduate student in Madison) is a great public speaker. Way better than Romney, though not par with Obama on a good day. The big problem with the choice is that Ryan doesn't put any swing states into contention, doesn't make any appeals to Hispanics (the ethnic group that will utterly kill Republican national tickets for decades to come), and doesn't make Romney look any more likeable than he is.
Really bad choice for Romney, but interesting choice coming from the Republican establishment. Its as if they're willing to sacrifice 2012 to keep Tea Party types enthused about local races and push an idea guy into the spotlight. Then again, Ryan 2016 could well go down like Goldwater 1964.
― The Painter of Blight™ (Sanpaku), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:34 (eleven years ago) link
While I definitely thought it would be romney for the last few years, I do wonder what would have happened to Santorum if Gingrich hadn't fucked up his shit in so many states (quite a few were near ties between Rick and Mitt, with Gingrich getting getting more than enough to make the difference). I assumed most of Newt's votes were "Not Romneys" more '90s nostalgic than evangelical, and if Rick had picked up more of them than Mitt he could have won quite a few more states. Mitt probably would have blasted Santorum even harder, someone else might have run, etc, etc, but if Newt had skipped off earlier I wonder if Rick would have had an edge.
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:35 (eleven years ago) link
alfred otm
but sadly they keep resurrecting revisionist versions of his ghost, which is enough for enough of the people enough of the time
― dell (del), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:36 (eleven years ago) link
Mitt probably would have blasted Santorum even harder, someone else might have run, etc, etc, but if Newt had skipped off earlier I wonder if Rick would have had an edge.
It was always gonna be Romney (hell, I'm kind of amazed it wasn't Romney in 2008), but Santorum could well have had Ryan's spot if not for Newt.
― 誤訳侮辱, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110615120715/en.futurama/images/0/03/RonaldReagansHead.png
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:38 (eleven years ago) link
huh Bush d. Kerry was much closer than I remember it being
Then again, I knew Kerry had lost when he followed up a BEP performance with "a really special treat for everyone": James Taylor and his acoustic guitar so I probably just stopped following the electoral count
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:39 (eleven years ago) link
"I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for doody."
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
Dude was hammering youth and excitement and everything he'd done to get young ppl out, and then at his rally had both JT and Sheryl Crow do acoustic sets; I'm surprised he didn't have a video montage of 50s teens hula hooping to "Chantilly Lace".
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:44 (eleven years ago) link
The math of looming entitlement shortfalls doesn't have a political bias.
― The Painter of Blight™ (Sanpaku), Sunday, August 12, 2012 11:11 AM (30 minutes ago)
no, of course not, but ryan's flogging of entitlement cuts sure as hell does.
― contenderizer, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:46 (eleven years ago) link
(and despite being created by a mad scientist out of dead body parts, he was about a bazillion times more adept at talking to people than Romney, even of half of those conversations ended up with a little girl drowning in a well)
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:47 (eleven years ago) link
do you guys dig how fucking batshit the GOP convention is going to be
― steven fucking tyler (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:49 (eleven years ago) link
REMEMBER
http://www.barewalls.com/i/c/428035_Rockin-Rebel.jpg
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:50 (eleven years ago) link
Aren't they still wondering whether they can keep Palin out or not?
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:50 (eleven years ago) link
xpost Jesus Alfred if ever we needed a reminder of just how ossified Rolling Stone got.
Mike Mills plays bass, Eddie Vedder was drummer for Hovercraft I say we got ourselves a supergroup on that cover
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:54 (eleven years ago) link
I'm hoping Palin morphs into an actual pit bull and eats Pawlenty
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:55 (eleven years ago) link
and Jackson Browne covering JT songs
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:56 (eleven years ago) link
Really really wish Obama had pushed something like Isabell Sawhill's suggested entitlement changes or even the Bowles/Simpson recommendations. To not suggest anything was ceding the idea high-ground to the ideologues of the Right.
― The Painter of Blight™ (Sanpaku), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:56 (eleven years ago) link
Jesus Alfred if ever we needed a reminder of just how ossified Rolling Stone got.
you mean brian wilson isn't one of the ten best new bands?
― contenderizer, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:57 (eleven years ago) link
Also hoping Huntsman tries to give a speech but bursts into tears instead, screaming "WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE" and locks himself in the bathroom for several hours sobbing into a live mic
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:58 (eleven years ago) link
does ayn ryan undercut the ron paul riot?
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:58 (eleven years ago) link
cuz even if they didn't have enough to get him on the stage there are a loooot of ron paulies that got themselves made into delegates
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 18:59 (eleven years ago) link
Rand Paul forgoes his speech and instead shoots a round of skeet with homemade leaflets titled "Sherrie Law"
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:01 (eleven years ago) link
Rand Paul forgoes his speech and instead sings Steve Perry's "Oh Sherry"
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:01 (eleven years ago) link
Four words: Haley Barbour strip tease
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:02 (eleven years ago) link
OK I was going to find the excelsior thread to give DJP some luv but I'm too busy barfing now, sorry.
― Death Grits (WmC), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:04 (eleven years ago) link
Rand Paul trades licks with Ted Nugent on live television - for best mileage here, "trades licks" can mean whatever you want it to mean here
― steven fucking tyler (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:05 (eleven years ago) link
Jan Brewer and Bobby Jindal perform their renowned comedy act "Pious and Biased"
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:05 (eleven years ago) link
Not since Britney and Madonna
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:06 (eleven years ago) link
Reagan body exhumed and hoisted on stage so that Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich take turns fucking it while Nino Scalia quotes from his dissent in Lawrence v. Texas
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:06 (eleven years ago) link
OK I was going to find the excelsior thread to give DJP aero some luv but I'm too busy barfing now, sorry.
― (REAL NAME) (m coleman), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:06 (eleven years ago) link
Michele Bachmann's husband does a dance routine to "Where Have You Been" while wearing Chick Fil A pasties
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
Halfway through Rick Perry's speech, it slowly dawns on everyone that he is graciously accepting the party's nomination
― keeping things contextual (DJP), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:09 (eleven years ago) link
AAAAAAH
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:10 (eleven years ago) link
This all needs to happen.
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:12 (eleven years ago) link
Cut to George Will at some point, a look of silent panic on his face.
― Ned Raggett, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:13 (eleven years ago) link
full text of John McCain's remarks to the 2012 Republican convention:
Thank you all very much. Tonight, I...you assholes. You fucking assholes. You goddamn fucking assholes. Fuck, fuck, fuck...fuck you. Fuck you, and fuck you. You goddamn, fucking, fucking, fucking...you fucking assholes. My dick. Suck my dick. You assholes.
― steven fucking tyler (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:17 (eleven years ago) link
I'm actually just hoping Lynyrd Skynyrd (who are really performing, and no I don't wanna talk about it) turns in such a marathon performance of "Free Bird" that the whole convention gets thrown off schedule.
― 誤訳侮辱, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:27 (eleven years ago) link
The Lynyrd Skynyrd of 2012 is not the Lynyrd Skynyrd of 1976 (literally!), but I hope that prediction comes true.
― Johnny Fever, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:39 (eleven years ago) link
lynyrd's been super right-wing for a while
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
pretty christgau is just listening to nu-lynyrd to get pissed off
Lyve [Sanctuary, 2004]Maybe the Allmans supported Bush too, though I bet not; maybe that fox Ronnie Van Zant would have turned into Charlie Daniels, though he would have nuanced it. But Daniels is Donald Fagen up against the backup-singer cheerleading and golden-oldies smarm of Johnny Van Zant, and where the Allmans replaced their mythic front line with Warren Haynes and Derek Trucks, who jam at least as tight and hot, Gary Rossington didn't anchor that peachy a guitar section to begin with. A few of the post-Ronnie songs are surprisingly decent--"Red, White and Blue," for instance, is about Johnny's neck, hair, and collar. But you know what else it's about, and in case you don't he has four or five ways to rub it in, including thanks to God for the lovely Nashville night. Not Memphis, not Jacksonville--Nashville. C+
God & Guns [RoadRunner/Loud & Proud, 2009]"You can take your change on down the road/And leave me here with mine," Johnny Van Zant begins one of the two songs that take up the title theme after has run through the pleasures of home, the perfidy of woman, and the mixed blessings of the music business for the umpteenth time. Like the wary younger sibling he's always been, Johnny will always hold onto a quarter and settle for what he knows, or thinks he does. Really, he ought to have some inkling that nobody worthy of his trepidation wants to ban hunting, burn the Bible, or slam old Uncle Sam, although actually that no smoking sign means exactly what it says. On the other hand, "Unwrite That Song" would make a nice B side for Darius Rucker. C+
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:42 (eleven years ago) link
I'm not predicting this, but I'm also not saying it's impossible.
http://i.imgur.com/MMbYs.png
― pplains, Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:49 (eleven years ago) link
I would be very surprised if Michigan went for Romney -- even my right wing relatives can't stand him.
― NR’s resident heavy-metal expert (Nicole), Sunday, 12 August 2012 19:51 (eleven years ago) link
Lynyrd Skynyrd in 2012 is the proverbial small business.
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 12 August 2012 20:05 (eleven years ago) link
Also, given its lineup, Skynyrd in 2012 is a job creator, too.
― Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 12 August 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
Johnny Van Zant may run Lynyrd Skynyrd, but he definitely didn't build that.
― da croupier, Sunday, 12 August 2012 20:44 (eleven years ago) link
are there poll numbers for people who won't vote for romney just because of the mormon thing? a lot of christian churches preach that mormonism is a cult and not to be trusted/taken seriously or even considered a part of christianity.
― scott seward, Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
okay i found a number...
CNN) – Bias against a Mormon presidential candidate hasn’t budged in 45 years, with 18% of Americans saying they would not vote for a well-qualified candidate who happened to be Mormon, according to a Gallup Poll released Thursday.
http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/21/bias-against-mormon-presidential-candidate-unchanged-since-1967-poll-finds/
― scott seward, Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:29 (eleven years ago) link
18% ain't chicken feed...
and they do note that 20% of americans said they wouldn't vote for a catholic right before kennedy won the election, but romney is no kennedy. there is no great fervor for him like there was for kennedy. or obama.
― scott seward, Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:34 (eleven years ago) link
also, there's probably more crossover between anti-catholic or anti-mormon (or racist) sentiment and the republican party base than there is between the same and the dem party base.
― Mordy, Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:38 (eleven years ago) link
well no because you're discounting liberal atheist latte drinkers
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:41 (eleven years ago) link
if they don't vote for candidates who are religious then they have never voted in an election and never will
― Mordy, Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:44 (eleven years ago) link
Echoing Nicole re Michigan in this unemployed age. The west side of the state being racist and conservative has never been enough to swing the vote alone, and even some people there are horrified by Mittens.
― check the name, no caps, boom, i'm (Laurel), Sunday, 12 August 2012 21:48 (eleven years ago) link
These are also not "likely voter" numbers, some may be crazy 99-year-old cranks who are the same exact people who answered the survey about George Romney. Would not put any stock into it at all.
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 12 August 2012 22:01 (eleven years ago) link
Not that the east side is not also racist, but they're a lot less conservative, is all I'm saying.
― check the name, no caps, boom, i'm (Laurel), Sunday, 12 August 2012 22:15 (eleven years ago) link
It never occurred to me until now that maybe he was named Mitt because of Michigan's shape?
Too bad he wasn't born in Fla.
― pplains, Sunday, 12 August 2012 22:21 (eleven years ago) link
Just saw Romney and Ryan are being interviewed together on 60 Minutes tonight. Will tune in.
― Johnny Fever, Sunday, 12 August 2012 22:23 (eleven years ago) link
18% of Americans saying they would not vote for a well-qualified candidate who happened to be Mormon, according to a Gallup Poll released Thursday.
bet a lot of them would consider it if that mormon's opponent were a muslim alinskyite, among other things
― mookieproof, Sunday, 12 August 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
I think it says a lot about the progress we've made as a nation that it will be down to a Mormon vs. a Muslim.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 13 August 2012 01:32 (eleven years ago) link
(Irony: non-Muslim that detractors think is a secret Muslim vs. real Mormon that said Mormon probably wants to keep quiet.)
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 13 August 2012 01:34 (eleven years ago) link
p. sure you meant black panther vs. bigamist
― mookieproof, Monday, 13 August 2012 01:41 (eleven years ago) link
the guy who secretly hates white people -vs- the guy who secretly has to hate black people according to ancient mormon law
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 01:44 (eleven years ago) link
tbf it comes more naturally to many americans than 'ancient' law
― mookieproof, Monday, 13 August 2012 01:47 (eleven years ago) link
Seriously. Visiting home and talking to ppl is like a one-woman consciousness-raising comedy act.
― check the name, no caps, boom, i'm (Laurel), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:01 (eleven years ago) link
One in which the laffs come from watching me take a lot of deep breaths.
― check the name, no caps, boom, i'm (Laurel), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:02 (eleven years ago) link
did you get raves y/n
― mookieproof, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:03 (eleven years ago) link
I give myself a 10 every time someone says something slightly less prejudiced than last time.
― check the name, no caps, boom, i'm (Laurel), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:05 (eleven years ago) link
progress via art <3
― mookieproof, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:06 (eleven years ago) link
oh yah i was just talking about their secret religious reasons for hating people. obama the muslim and romney the mormon.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:36 (eleven years ago) link
4 out of 10 people still don't know romney is mormon according to that poll thing on cnn. i kinda wonder how it will come up in debates and stuff like that. will he have to answer questions about the angel moroni and the golden plates?
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:41 (eleven years ago) link
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20120112080943AAeWFIV
― buzza, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:43 (eleven years ago) link
i want him to answer questions about the posthumous baptism of holocaust victims
― running like a young deer (symsymsym), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:44 (eleven years ago) link
it always kinda boggles my mind that recent american religions can actually travel to other countries. i don't know why. just the idea of asian or swiss scientologists and mormons seems so weird to me. it seems like such an american thing.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:44 (eleven years ago) link
weirder than baseball in japan?
― the late great, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:46 (eleven years ago) link
yes, totally. sports always travel around the world. all kinds of sports.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:47 (eleven years ago) link
its normal for my kids to take kung fu lessons every week, but it would probably be a little more unusual if we went to a shinto shrine every week. uh, cuz i don't think there are any near us? but just more unusual for westerners in general probably.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:50 (eleven years ago) link
From the time he was a child in Peru, the Mormon Church instilled in Jose A. Loayza the conviction that he and millions of other Native Americans were descended from a lost tribe of Israel that reached the New World more than 2,000 years ago.
"We were taught all the blessings of that Hebrew lineage belonged to us and that we were special people," said Loayza, now a Salt Lake City attorney. "It not only made me feel special, but it gave me a sense of transcendental identity, an identity with God."
A few years ago, Loayza said, his faith was shaken and his identity stripped away by DNA evidence showing that the ancestors of American natives came from Asia, not the Middle East.
"I've gone through stages," he said. "Absolutely denial. Utter amazement and surprise. Anger and bitterness."
― buzza, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:50 (eleven years ago) link
There's the Peace Pagoda tho, Scott! xp
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:50 (eleven years ago) link
It's in Leverett
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:51 (eleven years ago) link
but even there its an ancient eastern religion and ancient stuff makes more sense to me. stuff invented in the last couple hundred years traveling to ancient countries and being embraced always seems weird to me.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:51 (eleven years ago) link
yeah there are plenty of hippie places and buddhist places around here i'm sure. but that seems more normal than a japanese person embracing L. ron hubbard! but hey whatever floats your boat.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:53 (eleven years ago) link
actually there are moonies here in town. little girls always come into my store trying to sell me their godawful homemade jewelry.
recent korean thing that made it big in america. not a lot of those.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:54 (eleven years ago) link
I have a friend who is big in to K-pop
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 13 August 2012 02:55 (eleven years ago) link
well anyway i'm voting for obama if that makes anybody feel better
― the late great, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:59 (eleven years ago) link
there is a pretty good korean restaurant here in town.
― scott seward, Monday, 13 August 2012 02:59 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe you missed it but there was this little thing called The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare which was largely designed to address the major looming entitlement problem aka health care?
― o. nate, Monday, 13 August 2012 03:27 (eleven years ago) link
all i know is i'm making sure to vote this election. just in case, ya know? god help us all if that asshat romney wins!
― messiahwannabe, Monday, 13 August 2012 03:41 (eleven years ago) link
i'm not sure whether a vote for obama or a vote for romney will troll morbz more so i'm going to hold out in some sort of schrodinger's troll where the intention to vote for both is true until i enter the booth and then the quantum whatever collapses
― Mordy, Monday, 13 August 2012 03:44 (eleven years ago) link
I'm gonna write in a vote for morbs for school board
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 13 August 2012 03:45 (eleven years ago) link
is "Dr. Morbius" yr legal name
Dr. Michael Morbius was created in response to the comic-book industry's self-censorship board, the Comics Code Authority, lifting its ban on vampires and certain other supernatural characters in February 1971, and not as a challenge to the code, as many believe.[1] Writer Roy Thomas and penciler Gil Kane created the character as a living man who is given vampiric abilities via scientific rather than supernatural means.
― Doctor Casino, Monday, 13 August 2012 03:53 (eleven years ago) link
one of the best comics, but not where Morbs takes his name from I'd guess
http://thecampofthesaints.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/forbidden-planet-dr-morbius-01.jpg
― steven fucking tyler (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Monday, 13 August 2012 03:55 (eleven years ago) link
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4e/Spidermanep19.jpg
― Doctor Casino, Monday, 13 August 2012 04:00 (eleven years ago) link
vote for who you like, not a speck of the universe shall take note
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Monday, 13 August 2012 11:35 (eleven years ago) link
http://rlv.zcache.com/emma_goldman_voting_quote_stickers-p217025536885826251bfd7p_400.jpg
― Pangborn to be Wilde (Dr Morbius), Monday, 13 August 2012 11:36 (eleven years ago) link
this is how anarchism ends, not with a bang, but a troll
― da croupier, Monday, 13 August 2012 11:44 (eleven years ago) link
i hope my district election officials take note!
― goole, Monday, 13 August 2012 13:56 (eleven years ago) link
who are you going to trust? noted misogynist erick erickson's gut feeling - http://www.redstate.com/2012/09/06/the-alternative-universe-and-the-media-feedback-loop/ - or every poll that has been released to date
― Mordy, Thursday, 6 September 2012 13:32 (eleven years ago) link
TOO MANY THREADS
― Newgod joins this board, and quickly he's some dude (goole), Thursday, 6 September 2012 13:53 (eleven years ago) link
this thread is primarily for democrat voters to feel nervous about an election that is practically a foregone conclusion. other threads are for other things!
btw, on that topic, nate writes:
But that isn’t how you draw these things up. You don’t want your chances to come down to the residual chance of a polling error or an October surprise. You want to be ahead after your party convention — not just tied, something that even Walter F. Mondale had (very briefly) managed to do in 1984.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/
― Mordy, Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:00 (eleven years ago) link
I’m on record repeatedly doubting Mitt Romney’s viability as a candidate, but more and more I think not only is Romney winning, but the polling is not reflecting the strength of his campaign and the media is actually sabotaging the Democrats’ chance of winning. In fact, I dare say if MItt Romney wins he will have the American media to thank for his win. Hear me out and I think you will agree.
First, and I realize you will have to take my word for it, I have a pretty good gut check on winning and losing. My gut tells me Mitt Romney is doing better than I expected and better than the polling is suggesting. Anecdotes are not data, but more and more a steady stream of anecdotes are piling up to suggest Romney is winning.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:04 (eleven years ago) link
"Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan" is an anagram of "My ultimate Ayn Rand porn"
― This Is... The Police (dog latin), Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:10 (eleven years ago) link
Anecdotes are not data, but more and more a steady stream of anecdotes are piling up to suggest Romney is winning.
haha
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:12 (eleven years ago) link
Based on Facebook posts, I predict an exact tie.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:17 (eleven years ago) link
I remember a lot of these 'anecdotes' floating around in 2008 -- around this time, as a matter of fact. K-Lo went to town with them.
And then, of course, there was the ultimate in shiny baubles thanks to Sarah P. Paul Ryan, no.
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
oh is that what K-Lo did?
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 14:20 (eleven years ago) link
What, exactly, are Mitt's strengths as a candidate? My impression was that he won the nomination by default; Santorum and Gingrich just seemed like repugnant human beings, and Herman Cain was basically insane. I'm not sure why people are into Romney. Is his whole platform "I'm not Obama"?
― frogbs, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:05 (eleven years ago) link
He's a businessman and loves his kids.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
He's going to Bain-ify our failing country!
(Seriously don't understand why no one seems to play that angle when his stature as a businessman is talked up as a plus).
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:10 (eleven years ago) link
(I mean, not 'no one', but it really should be the overriding narrative re: his business acumen.)
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:12 (eleven years ago) link
Everyone is playing that angle! It was one of the main talking points of the convention last night and has been a theme in attack ads, including the super mean one that implied Romney was responsible for a dude's wife dying of cancer because he shut down a plant dude worked at, causing him to lose his medical insurance.
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:14 (eleven years ago) link
Ha ha. Okay, cool. I haven't seen much convention coverage or that ad. Kinda wondered if they were biding their time before they really started hammering it home.
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
as of today they are tied in the polls. apparently.
http://www.examiner.com/article/a-breakdown-of-the-most-recent-obama-versus-romney-polls-9
― scott seward, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:27 (eleven years ago) link
get ready to put on your mandatory bainamerica uniform. and learn the compulsory bainamerica anthem.
― scott seward, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:28 (eleven years ago) link
xxxp That was definitely the weirdest campaign ad I've seen in a long time (well, that and the famous Herman Cain one), it kinda sucks to know the Democrats are totally insane as well
― frogbs, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:29 (eleven years ago) link
one weird thing that i can report is that there is a sudden groundswell of musicians talking about the fact that the primary stakeholder in guitar center (which is in the pretty hated category, at least on the surface) is bain - like dudes coming into the store to inform me that they wont vote for romney because of his ties to guitar center. which is weird, but could mobilize some pretty lazy non-voting sorts of people.
― O_o-O_O-o_O (jjjusten), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:43 (eleven years ago) link
Would love to see the anti-Guitar Center contingent turn the tide. O's team needs to get to work on those ads asap.
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:45 (eleven years ago) link
crucial slice of the electorate right there!!
ha xp
srsly tho i didn't know that
― Newgod joins this board, and quickly he's some dude (goole), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:45 (eleven years ago) link
hahahaha wait, so noise dudes and guitar store cranks are the next soccer moms? Guitar Center is the next Whitewater?
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:45 (eleven years ago) link
this is not exactly true. they tied coming out of the RNC convention (when romney should be leading from convention bounce). when the numbers regress, obama is still leading.
― Mordy, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:47 (eleven years ago) link
jesus christ Erick Erickson IS Stephen Colbert
― chicago rap twitter luminary (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:49 (eleven years ago) link
shepard fairey better get cracking on some 'fuck guitar center; fuck mitt romney' posters.
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:56 (eleven years ago) link
― scott seward, Thursday, September 6, 2012 11:27 AM (27 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
http://i.imgur.com/pfMfr.png
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
http://i.imgur.com/86Y1E.png
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com
http://i.imgur.com/VVJaD.png
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 15:59 (eleven years ago) link
Gotta say, learning the carmax guy was hardcore dem and the papa Johns guy was hardcore repub has already affected what I might spend my money on.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 6 September 2012 16:05 (eleven years ago) link
feel like this news from the general election thread should be included here:http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/romney-gop-michigan-pennsylvania-pull-out.php
― congratulations (n/a), Thursday, 6 September 2012 16:15 (eleven years ago) link
I know this isnt really teh place to say this but sometimes when I eat meat I feel like a vampire
― Brony 4 Life (Latham Green), Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:11 (eleven years ago) link
no this is totally the place
― iatee, Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:13 (eleven years ago) link
Slobbo and Nino will hang on until the ice caps melt and available red meat supply gone
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:24 (eleven years ago) link
wrong thread! but yeah same concern
it really irks me how vital nino is for a 75 y/o fat man
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:26 (eleven years ago) link
red wine, man
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:26 (eleven years ago) link
haha it is so hard to keep these threads straight
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:27 (eleven years ago) link
― Newgod joins this board, and quickly he's some dude (goole), Thursday, September 6, 2012 8:53 AM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― Newgod joins this board, and quickly he's some dude (goole), Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:36 (eleven years ago) link
conversely, more threads?
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:42 (eleven years ago) link
yeah i bet scalia's got another 10-12 years in him. fucker.
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:47 (eleven years ago) link
maybe if we can confront him with enough unspeakably abominable acts of homosinuality he will have a heart attack
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
how did clinton look healthwise compared to scalia? thin + haggard vs stout and sturdy or lean+mean vs human slop bucket?
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:03 (eleven years ago) link
hale and hearty
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:04 (eleven years ago) link
i guess that makes scalia the human slop bucket
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:12 (eleven years ago) link
scalia def has the puffy face and extra chin thing going now
― Aimless, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:17 (eleven years ago) link
what's he thinking here?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/97/Antonin_Scalia,_SCOTUS_photo_portrait.jpg/220px-Antonin_Scalia,_SCOTUS_photo_portrait.jpg
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:21 (eleven years ago) link
i have 6 marshmallows in my mouth
― Mordy, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:25 (eleven years ago) link
clinton looked better than he has in recent memory imho fwiw xp tho he prob doesnt wear make up all the time has something to do w/it
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 6 September 2012 17:05 (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
what about pizza hut? if they are the same i'm just going to give up and learn to make my own dough
― a hoy hoy, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
so Costco dude was one of the speakers? i missed that
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:41 (eleven years ago) link
His appeal was well captured by this post:s
there's something pitch perfect abt his boringnesslike I'm a real businessman, did your 24 pack of basketballs all go flat, sir? I will find you a replacement in the back. no, thank you, sir.
― Farrah Abraham had many songs/ many songs had Farrah Abraham (m bison)
― boxall, Thursday, 6 September 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
Dunno about Pizza Hut or Domino politics, tbh. I assume they're all right wingers.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 6 September 2012 19:23 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know about Pizza Hut either, but Domino's definitely a must to avoid.
― Ermahgerd Thomas (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 6 September 2012 19:29 (eleven years ago) link
not to mention that Godfather's pizza guy
― Aimless, Thursday, 6 September 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
I am concerned about scalia's weight issues. Is that why he opposes healthcare? fear of taking away his meals?
― Brony 4 Life (Latham Green), Thursday, 6 September 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
forget right wing when you can have those tasty buffalo hot wings
― omar little, Thursday, 6 September 2012 19:39 (eleven years ago) link
xp he claims it's the broccoli lobby behind Affordable Care Act
― blank, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:09 (eleven years ago) link
imo romney will get pwnd as more and more people think about michelle's speech and clinton's speech
― the late great, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:11 (eleven years ago) link
Mitt and Ann Romney speeches, let alone Ryan's, instantly evaporated into the ether. Like they never happened.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:19 (eleven years ago) link
Romney pulling out of PA and wherever to pool resources to hold an RNC do-over.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:20 (eleven years ago) link
http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/992671#.UEkYPdCXTFz
reputation as a pandering-but-intelligent-fellow at high risk here
CARNEY: What role should government have in promoting certain industries or economic activities such as homeownership, or manufacturing, renewable energy or fossil fuel energy, exports, or just advanced technology? What sort of subsidies and incentives do you favor? You had some of these in Massachusetts, I know.ROMNEY: Very limited -- my answer to your first question. I’m not an advocate of industrial policy being formed by a government. I do believe in the power of free markets, and when the government removes the extraordinary burdens that it puts on markets, why I think markets are more effective at guiding a prosperous economy than is the government.So for instance, I would not be investing massive dollars in electric car companies in California. I think Tesla and Fisker are delightful-looking vehicles, but I somehow imagine that Toyota, Nissan, and even General Motors will produce a more cost-effective electric car than either Tesla or Fisker. I think it is bad policy for us to be investing hundreds of millions of dollars in specific companies and specific technologies, and developing those technologies.I do believe in basic science. I believe in participating in space. I believe in analysis of new sources of energy. I believe in laboratories, looking at ways to conduct electricity with -- with cold fusion, if we can come up with it. It was the University of Utah that solved that. We somehow can’t figure out how to duplicate it.But basic science, in my view, is a way that research can encourage our entire economy. And so, for instance, in Michigan, some years ago -- I think it was in 2007 -- I spoke there and said, you know, I think we ought to embark upon an effort to do analysis on energy research, transportation research, materials research. But again, basic research which could then be either purchased by or licensed by companies foreign and domestic.
ROMNEY: Very limited -- my answer to your first question. I’m not an advocate of industrial policy being formed by a government. I do believe in the power of free markets, and when the government removes the extraordinary burdens that it puts on markets, why I think markets are more effective at guiding a prosperous economy than is the government.
So for instance, I would not be investing massive dollars in electric car companies in California. I think Tesla and Fisker are delightful-looking vehicles, but I somehow imagine that Toyota, Nissan, and even General Motors will produce a more cost-effective electric car than either Tesla or Fisker. I think it is bad policy for us to be investing hundreds of millions of dollars in specific companies and specific technologies, and developing those technologies.
I do believe in basic science. I believe in participating in space. I believe in analysis of new sources of energy. I believe in laboratories, looking at ways to conduct electricity with -- with cold fusion, if we can come up with it. It was the University of Utah that solved that. We somehow can’t figure out how to duplicate it.
But basic science, in my view, is a way that research can encourage our entire economy. And so, for instance, in Michigan, some years ago -- I think it was in 2007 -- I spoke there and said, you know, I think we ought to embark upon an effort to do analysis on energy research, transportation research, materials research. But again, basic research which could then be either purchased by or licensed by companies foreign and domestic.
― j., Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:42 (eleven years ago) link
"basic science"
― call all destroyer, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:44 (eleven years ago) link
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, September 6, 2012 5:19 PM (24 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
theyd prob be better off if they had never happened, the contrast between the two conventions is just brutal
― lag∞n, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:45 (eleven years ago) link
Mitt Romney would be better off not ever happening
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:46 (eleven years ago) link
so the role of gov't is to do investigative research and then lease the exploitation rights to corporate entities? romney is complex.
― i know your nuts hurt! who's laughing? (contenderizer), Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:46 (eleven years ago) link
"basic science"/"basic research" is a term of art referring to non-commercial research/science for the sake of knowing more science. Whether that's what Mitt was trying to say I will leave up to you. xp
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:47 (eleven years ago) link
y u maek him cry, Alfred:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/01/27/business/Norris/Norris-articleLarge.jpg
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:47 (eleven years ago) link
Meanwhile our own ZS has been hobnobbing:
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/386083_10151076793905959_1467151167_n.jpg
Jimmy Carter was on my flight and shook everyone's hand! I said, "very nice to meet you". I'm sure he'll never forget that!
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:49 (eleven years ago) link
i do believe in basic science, but not in an "actually understanding it at all" way.
― O_o-O_O-o_O (jjjusten), Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:50 (eleven years ago) link
"I think I heard something about cold fusion and electricity, there might have been lasers or cyborgs involved, I don't exactly recall, but maybe 3M could look into that and we can all make some money off of it."
― O_o-O_O-o_O (jjjusten), Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:51 (eleven years ago) link
Toyota, Nissan, and even General Motors will produce a more cost-effective electric car than either Tesla or Fisker.
Can't you just let the market decide, Mitt?
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 6 September 2012 21:53 (eleven years ago) link
tesla was so close to going under a few times that i'm pretty sure a lack of govt support would have meant no fancy car, no new factory jobs in the vacated nummi plant. toyota is using tesla's battery tech in their new vehicles. did nobody vet his responses? he sounds clueless in the one area he's supposed to be an evil genius about.
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, 6 September 2012 22:04 (eleven years ago) link
Also note that, in terms of good talking points, the first two companies he mentions are foreign and then "and even" an American auto manufacturer. I really don't get tired of seeing just how bad at this Romney can be.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 6 September 2012 23:43 (eleven years ago) link
if obama can take on hillary and live, romney should be cake. i mean obama/romney debate would be pretty unfair fight, no? obama has a brain and knows how to use it. romney is a big nothing.
― scott seward, Friday, 7 September 2012 00:17 (eleven years ago) link
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/09/pro-romney-ads-not-running-in-michigan-pennsylvania/1?csp=34news
Romney campaign and SuperPAC ads no longer running in PA or MI.
― Darren Robocopsky (Phil D.), Friday, 7 September 2012 00:51 (eleven years ago) link
I believe in laboratories, looking at ways to conduct electricity with -- with cold fusion, if we can come up with it. It was the University of Utah that solved that. We somehow can’t figure out how to duplicate it.
what is this I can't even
― Darren Robocopsky (Phil D.), Friday, 7 September 2012 00:52 (eleven years ago) link
"somehow"
lol at the anti-guitar center bloc
― caek, Friday, 7 September 2012 13:05 (eleven years ago) link
We have only just entered the decisive part of the campaign. The whole war will be fought over a tiny slice of undecided voters in about six or seven states. Nothing that happened prior to Sept 1 will matter much in November, except maybe Romney activating the RRR by picking Ryan vs. the inroads Obama made in convincing voters that Romney typifies what they hate most about Wall Street.
My gut says that Romney's next move will resemble those artillery barrages that preceded every major battle of WWI, except it will be attack ads and right wing media attack dogs, not artillery shells.
― Aimless, Friday, 7 September 2012 17:34 (eleven years ago) link
the war is arguably more abt turning out the base than converting undecideds at this point
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 September 2012 17:44 (eleven years ago) link
really loving "I believe in laboratories" over here
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:47 (eleven years ago) link
are there any numbers about how many undecided voters there are at this point compared to in previous election years? i kind of have a hard time thinking there are a significant number of people still on the fence that are, like, registered voters.
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:49 (eleven years ago) link
maybe indecisive people just know elections are the one time when they are valued more than anyone else and like to flaunt that power
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
I hear that's actually a controversial position on the Right
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
the polls have been oddly static this time around
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 September 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
static compared to previous elections or static throughout this election? because i can believe the latter. everyone says bump this and bump that but it feels like everything that's happened in the last few months has just confirmed for people what they already believe and made them more confident in the choice they made ages ago.
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:53 (eleven years ago) link
Romney increasingly feels like a John Kerry figure whose only real appeal is that he isn't his opponent
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:55 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, I get the impression that most of the votes for Romney will be grudging votes for [REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE].
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Friday, 7 September 2012 17:58 (eleven years ago) link
That's the only reason I voted for Kerry in 2004. He wasn't W.
― Johnny Fever, Friday, 7 September 2012 17:59 (eleven years ago) link
(But I lived in Tennessee, so it didn't matter at all.)
I mean, this is the guy who, in the debates four years ago, all the other candidates treated like a joke. It's hard to believe a lot of Republican voters aren't actively choking down that same sentiment now.
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Friday, 7 September 2012 18:00 (eleven years ago) link
# of undecided voters is something like 3%, which is lower than in prior election years
New polling from The Washington Post and ABC News shows there are fewer genuinely undecided voters during the 2012 election campaign than there have been in any of the last three elections.
And less than one in five voters says there is any chance at all that he or she will change his or her mind.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-incredible-shrinking--and-increasingly-valuable--undecided-voter/2012/07/23/gJQAcRMH4W_blog.html
― curmudgeon, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:02 (eleven years ago) link
I'll def become an undecided voter for cash.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 7 September 2012 18:03 (eleven years ago) link
ah, interesting. thanks for doing the searching i was too lazy to do myself! (xpost)
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, 7 September 2012 18:03 (eleven years ago) link
Romney increasingly feels like a John Kerry figure whose only real appeal is that he isn't his opponent― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, September 7, 2012 5:55 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, September 7, 2012 5:55 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
To prove this point, Kerry is playing the Romney role in mock debates with Obama.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 7 September 2012 18:07 (eleven years ago) link
yup, its not enough to just be against something
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:08 (eleven years ago) link
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-approval-jumps-after-dnc?ref=fpb
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 7 September 2012 18:10 (eleven years ago) link
I have a few thoughts: first, Romney's bounce from both the VP pick and the convention (as seen on the RCP average) has crested, and it's already returning to a near-tie with slight Obama advantage. Obama has retained an advantage in electoral math even while Mitt surged (see 538 for reassurance on this point).
Second, note that the recent Romney/Ryan surge has accompanied a large amount of pandering to the knee-jerk anti-tax, knee-jerk anti-government Tea Party right - i.e., people they should have already had. People who were not even potential Obama voters. People, in other words, that the GOP should already have sewn up by now. So everything Romney/Ryan do to pacify this base can actually be seen as a sign of weakness. If Obama was such a failure, and so obviously inept, then R/R shouldn't need to do anything but breathe for a few more months. As it is, I feel that it's telling, and NOT a good sign, that they have to keep slinging red meat to the base.
Third, I've heard a lot of crowing from the right about how ooh, Obama's been below 50%, that's a bad place for him to be; incumbents who are below 50% at this point are in trouble. Perhaps, but, I don't think that means that people genuinely, positively, prefer Romney. And I think in the current environment it won't be enough to just say "vote for me because I'm not the other guy." That hasn't reliably worked. (See Deeds vs. McDonnel in Va.)
Finally, though I'm sanguine about Mr. Obama's chances, I have striven to inoculate myself against the possibility that I'm wrong. I look for ways to process a potential Romney win as being paradoxically good in the long run. Note: as Lindsey Graham pointed out, demographically, the current Republican message is doomed. You can't just run on the angry white guy energy forever; indeed, this year may be the high-water mark of that kind of sentiment.
So okay, let's say that the knee-jerk anti-tax, anti-government, anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-environment folks win out this time. One might nurture a small hope that the public will see the results of that body of policy being enacted, and realize (again) that it doesn't work. The electorate may need to really see (again!) that "get government out of the way" does not, in fact, lead to a cascade of prosperity that lifts all boats. Such as result may not totally kill that idea, but it will make the Tea Party argument harder to make credible in future.
― Ye Mad Puffin, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
my concern with your last point is if the economy does rebound (however slightly) on its own accord in the short term, those fucking clowns will all be like "SEE!?"
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 7 September 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
yea for exactly four years
anyway w/r/t Kerry vs Romney, dems didn't secretly hate Kerry.
― iatee, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:39 (eleven years ago) link
xp
i think i mightve secretly hated him
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:41 (eleven years ago) link
i thought he was lame
― Mr. Que, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
dem base/dem pros/dem likelies were all still hopelessly garbled and mixed up about THE WAR in 04, and the whole election was a referendum on that.
― goole, Friday, 7 September 2012 18:47 (eleven years ago) link
I look for ways to process a potential Romney win as being paradoxically good in the long run.
i'm not sure romney won't govern pretty closely to how obama will
― Mordy, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
congress
― goole, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:18 (eleven years ago) link
Congress may cause that on some things
On many economic and defense issues maybe, but not social ones and not on court appointees. Plus Romney will want even more drill baby drill for oil
― curmudgeon, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
It does seem like Congress will be the big wildcard here. If we end up with another Republican House and Democratic Senate who are loathe to compromise, then it seems like not much may happen regardless of who is President. Big changes only seem likely to happen if control of Congress lines up with control of the Presidency. I guess I haven't heard much about projections for gains/losses of Congressional seats by the two parties this cycle, with all the focus on the Presidential race, but the Congressional races could end up being more significant.
― o. nate, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
Romney's foreign policy pronouncements (Iran! Russia! Syria!) have been radical, so you'd have to hope an apple knocks sense into him, plus hope that the apple doesn't hurt him enough so that Paul Ryan must take over.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 7 September 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
This site projects Republican keeping control of the House and gaining a slim Senate majority: http://www.electionprojection.com/index.phpI guess Dems could still threaten to filibuster, but it would be harder politically to maintain a hard line with a Republican in the White House as well.
― o. nate, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
Since the most likely outcome is a Republican-controlled Congress and Obama in the White House, then I guess it was appropriate that his entrance music on Wednesday night was Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down". The main thing he can offer Democrats for the next 2 years is that he'll take a hard line in negotiating with Republicans in Congress.
― o. nate, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/09/obama-bounces-up-to-52-approval-48-to.html
― iatee, Friday, 7 September 2012 20:53 (eleven years ago) link
may 1000 vetos bloom
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 7 September 2012 20:55 (eleven years ago) link
so my bet is on a Senate with 51 GOP, 47 Dems, and 2 Independents (who will caucus w/ Dems)
what's everyone's feeling on the House? are the Dems going to pick up any seats, or will they lose even more?
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 7 September 2012 21:01 (eleven years ago) link
Dems ain't getting the House.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 7 September 2012 21:02 (eleven years ago) link
they'll pick up seats but won't take it
― iatee, Friday, 7 September 2012 21:04 (eleven years ago) link
oh yeah, no way they're taking it. just typing out loud when i saw that that electionprojection site has Dems actually losing 2 seats
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 7 September 2012 21:13 (eleven years ago) link
http://2012presidentialelectionpredictions.com/images/top2012.png
― iatee, Friday, 7 September 2012 21:29 (eleven years ago) link
http://2012presidentialelectionpredictions.com/images/rightonline12.jpg
Ho-lee shit. Was Mordy visited by an angel?
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:00 (eleven years ago) link
Romney can only lead the party in the direction the party wants to go. This would be forcefully impressed upon him if he won the presidency. This means that Romney would be strongly pulled to the right of Obama, no matter what his personal ideology might be.
― Aimless, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:25 (eleven years ago) link
it doesn't matter if you turn RIGHT or LEFT when BOTH ROADS lead to the SAME PLACE.
-- http://www.guzer.com/pictures/mr_cool_ice.jpg
― you lost me at "chill" (Matt P), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
yup. dude would be more right-wing than bush, not because he 'actually is' but because he doesn't have an ounce of credibility within the gop. xp
― iatee, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
This feels supremely optimistic. The ties between big money, government, and the media are being tied tighter and tighter every election cycle, and the Tea Party argument is not going away. If anything it will get worse. Our only hope is the total collapse of mainstream media via some kind of asteroid or EMP aimed at all cable TV satellites.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
As for Romney not really being that different than Obama, I wouldn't be surprised if he severely ramped up defense spending, goes on a government subsidy binge, and takes a chainsaw to whatever economic regulations are still holding up our precariously set house of cards. His whole career has been making a fortune while playing with other people's money, and it's silly to think he would stop doing this if he suddenly found himself in the White House with a stack of blank checks.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:41 (eleven years ago) link
The most important of the many lessons learned from George W. Bush is how much lasting damage one president can manage in just four years.
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
BOTH ROADS lead to the SAME PLACE
The GOP has become considerably crazier in 2012 than it was in 2000, when Nader made his pitch that both parties were alike, because both were captive to corporations. Both roads do not lead to the same place atm.
― Aimless, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:43 (eleven years ago) link
I think imagining a Romney presidency is basically, take whatever issue, and imagine how it would be approached from a purely "Make as much profit as possible" perspective.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:44 (eleven years ago) link
And how easy it is to completely erase that from the public's memory.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
pretty sure he won't approach tax revenue from this perspective
― iatee, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:46 (eleven years ago) link
or defense spending
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:47 (eleven years ago) link
"Fellow Americans, I have looked at the numbers and it is my conclusion that the American people can no longer afford a National Park system. This sale of the parks to the Disney Corporation will strengthen our country, by contributing to the economy, not stealing from it in the form of grotesquely overblown subsidies that benefit only a few RV owners."
― Aimless, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:51 (eleven years ago) link
"Myself and my cabinet will be granted a one time special dividend of $100b, any questions."
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:54 (eleven years ago) link
Last two posts remind me that, even though I think it's possible, it really is hard to imagine Romney as president.
― clemenza, Saturday, 8 September 2012 18:57 (eleven years ago) link
The Dems have become considerably more militaristic and authoritarian in 2012 than they were in 2000 -- permanent kill lists for the POTUS, warrantless everything, "USA" chants over a dead old has-been, etc. They are basically 1992 Republicans who like gays.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:03 (eleven years ago) link
sexi party
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
the debate here really devolves to "obama is a war criminal but he's the lesser of two evils" vs "obama is the lesser of two evils but he's a war criminal"
― da croupier, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
saying he's the lesser -- which I do not sign on to -- is using nothing but what O & R *say* they will do as the criteria. Not a sound basis when you have two proven liars.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:25 (eleven years ago) link
I don't have the stomach for arguments about that stuff, but seeing as I'm just about to step out for a while, a good excuse to avoid getting dragged into one, I will of course dissent from the war criminal charge--just way too big a leap for me. You can not approve of things he's done without making it.
― clemenza, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:29 (eleven years ago) link
but but morbs is an expert on the geneva conventions
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
when he says war criminal he really means it its not just some childish ploy
i prefer to think of it as the lesser of two goods anyway, same diff
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:35 (eleven years ago) link
i realize calling someone a war criminal is almost as likely to cause butthurtness as calling someone a racist, and I'm being reductive - though less so than claiming we having nothing to gauge O & R by other than their promises.
― da croupier, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:35 (eleven years ago) link
anyway we should def replace these proven liars w/some of those other people in the world who dont lie, brb looking around for them
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
I've never lied in my life, I am constantly hooked up to a lie detector and I do not know how to fool itI love my family (cept my dad)I know the chorus to 'we are the champions'bison4prez 2024
― Farrah Abraham had many songs/ many songs had Farrah Abraham (m bison), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:40 (eleven years ago) link
i know ive made this point before but every single presidential candidate regardless of party will do different stuff if put in office, thats how it is w/people, theyre all different, now you can argue that the things they will do different dont matter because theyre not different enough, but being as the president of the usa is an exceedingly powerful positions even minor decisions will have major impacts on peoples lives
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:40 (eleven years ago) link
I will primarily on my ILH mod experience xp
― Farrah Abraham had many songs/ many songs had Farrah Abraham (m bison), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
strawman alert, rrrrrr, rrrrrr
xxxp
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
also, I'll be over on I Love Baseball
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:42 (eleven years ago) link
also people conflating obamas war record w/bushes just stop you are being ridiculous, im sure all the way more people killed under bush would like to have a word w/you if they could
also heres some maths re total wars started and ended
bush 2obama -1
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
now here's a man you can take at his word
― da croupier, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:48 (eleven years ago) link
"ended"
really it's all bullshit
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
why do you go to hear Communists like the Mekons anyway, croup?
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:51 (eleven years ago) link
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, September 8, 2012 3:50 PM (44 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
*nods condescendingly*
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:52 (eleven years ago) link
because they're funny and remarkably not smug or pious, give me hope that one can age without turning into a kneejerk crank
― da croupier, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:54 (eleven years ago) link
Because most people on ilx were adults during the admisitrations of both Bush Jr. and Obama, I don't think you'll get very far trying to convince them that the two are essentially identical. They will be much more convinced by their own perceptions and experiences than any argument you can make.
― Aimless, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
though if the mekons kept claiming they were going to retire from the game and crawled back to the clubs every so many months i'd be pretty embarrassed for them
― da croupier, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
Dems taking the military stance formerly the wheelhouse of the Republicans is depressing, but Romney saying he'd bring back waterboarding etc and threatening Iran indicates to me that with him it would only get worse. Not to say that he'd go to war with Iran or Russia - the people don't want that and Mitt is only swayed by political expedience (see: abortion) - but the citizenry loves the living hell out of our warmongering and our military so as long as it's good politically both will continue to blow the hell out of whatever they can.
To say they would have essentially the same presidency is just idiotic though.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:56 (eleven years ago) link
should be mentioned that obama has proposed defense cuts, not sure who the last candidate was to pull that out of their hat
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:58 (eleven years ago) link
― da croupier, Saturday, September 8, 2012 7:55 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
<3
― Mr. Que, Saturday, 8 September 2012 19:59 (eleven years ago) link
give me hope that one can age without turning into a kneejerk crank
croup, next time, "walk on by."
stick with your optics, kids, and no crocodile tears later on.
Glad you're in love again, Que.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
leave me the fuck alone dude
― Mr. Que, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
looooooooooooooooooooooooooool
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:02 (eleven years ago) link
lol me the fuck alone dude
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
Morbs, did you really bring up the Mekons
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
― iatee, Saturday, September 8, 2012 2:46 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, September 8, 2012 2:47 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Profit is not a concept in his or his party's vision of the government of America. Defense and taxes are the two main things Republicans have repeatedly stated are OFF THE TABLE in any approach towards debt reduction. Besides, there is a LOT of corporate profit to be made selling of the military to the highest bidder, and plenty of opportunity for very legal manipulation of the markets in order to help his friends. Obama has problems making friends, we are told. What kind of friends would he have if he were a corporate plunderer rather than a community organizer?
Every Republican has pledged to drown the government in a bathtub, and though Romney may be a flip-flopper, I don't see why he would jeopardize a position of global power to vote against this mindset.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:25 (eleven years ago) link
romney will sign whatever a republican congress sends to him, obama will not, just to mention one completely obvious distinction
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
not that necessarily there will be a republican congress
even if the only difference between them was whether or not to repeal obamacare thatd be enough
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
yup
― iatee, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
Obama may have hired the same financial idiots who ruined things in '08, but if Romney was in that position, would you really expect him to pick anyone less corrupt? Maybe having the same crooks in charge kept them under the gun, a bit more in the public spotlight.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
I'm going to stfu before i go further in apologist mode, but damn the Republicans are doing a great job campaigning for Obama.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:34 (eleven years ago) link
thats not a wholly accurate description of obama financial team fwiw
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:34 (eleven years ago) link
i mean im not sure how you blame academics for the financial collapse, im sure you could if you tried hard enough, but thats casting a p wide net
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:35 (eleven years ago) link
always confused w/ who adam bruneau is arguing w/
― iatee, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:35 (eleven years ago) link
While politicians may be an unsavory lot on the whole, and while it may be true that any electable person who makes it to the Oval Office is likely to do some odious nonsense, I'm in no way prepared to support the notion that they're all just interchangeable sacks of shit and that it doesn't matter one way or another who you vote for because whoever's in charge is just as bad as the other guy who coulda been in charge, maaaaaan. If Bush II's presidency isn't the clearest sign that one person in particular can do more catastrophic damage in that office than another, I dunno what it could possibly take to convince you.
― This Whole Fridge Is Full Of (Old Lunch), Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:52 (eleven years ago) link
ftr, i'm not saying it's likely romney will govern the same as obama. i'm just saying that i can imagine a variety of scenarios where it's not significantly different. mind u, this assumes that romney will not feel beholden to his party and will govern differently than he has claimed he will. but that's not impossible being as how romney is an enormous liar. (and didn't govern like a tea partier in MA.)
for sure the strangest thing about our conversations on ilx morbz is that despite having argued about political issues like a million times on here you still seem to have no clue about what i believe beyond your conviction that i'm the strawman obama groupie you think everyone on ilx is.
― Mordy, Saturday, 8 September 2012 20:56 (eleven years ago) link
Mainly Geithner, Summers, and Bernanke.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 21:27 (eleven years ago) link
Continuity for the markets.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Saturday, 8 September 2012 21:32 (eleven years ago) link
bernanke has been horrible but he wasnt much of a player as far as ruining things in 08, giether and summers for sure have blood on their hands, tho its not like either of them was out there creating collateralized debt obligations or managing aig or w/e
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 21:48 (eleven years ago) link
Summers's role in the deregulation of derivatives contractsOn May 7, 1998, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a Concept Release soliciting input from regulators, academics, and practitioners to determine "how best to maintain adequate regulatory safeguards without impairing the ability of the OTC (Over-the-counter) derivatives market to grow and the ability of U.S. entities to remain competitive in the global financial marketplace." On July 30, 1998, then-Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Summers testified before the U.S. Congress that "the parties to these kinds of contract are largely sophisticated financial institutions that would appear to be eminently capable of protecting themselves from fraud and counterparty insolvencies." Summers, like Greenspan and Rubin who also opposed the concept release, offered no proof that the contracts would not be misused by financial institutions. Instead, Summers stated that "to date there has been no clear evidence of a need for additional regulation of the institutional OTC derivatives market, and we would submit that proponents of such regulation must bear the burden of demonstrating that need." In 1999 Summers endorsed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which removed the separation between investment and commercial banks, saying "With this bill, the American financial system takes a major step forward towards the 21st Century."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Summers#Summers.27s_role_in_the_deregulation_of_derivatives_contracts
On May 7, 1998, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a Concept Release soliciting input from regulators, academics, and practitioners to determine "how best to maintain adequate regulatory safeguards without impairing the ability of the OTC (Over-the-counter) derivatives market to grow and the ability of U.S. entities to remain competitive in the global financial marketplace." On July 30, 1998, then-Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Summers testified before the U.S. Congress that "the parties to these kinds of contract are largely sophisticated financial institutions that would appear to be eminently capable of protecting themselves from fraud and counterparty insolvencies." Summers, like Greenspan and Rubin who also opposed the concept release, offered no proof that the contracts would not be misused by financial institutions. Instead, Summers stated that "to date there has been no clear evidence of a need for additional regulation of the institutional OTC derivatives market, and we would submit that proponents of such regulation must bear the burden of demonstrating that need." In 1999 Summers endorsed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which removed the separation between investment and commercial banks, saying "With this bill, the American financial system takes a major step forward towards the 21st Century."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Summers#Summers.27s_role_in_the_deregulation_of_derivatives_contracts
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 8 September 2012 21:51 (eleven years ago) link
giether and summers for sure have blood on their hands
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 21:58 (eleven years ago) link
romney is dumb, weird part one million http://presspass.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/08/13750865-romney-clinton-helped-elevate-democratic-convention
― lag∞n, Saturday, 8 September 2012 22:07 (eleven years ago) link
I don't get this. What's the upside to the Clinton love-fest for the Republicans? Clinton's still ya know alive and currently campaigning for Obama...
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Sunday, 9 September 2012 00:55 (eleven years ago) link
they can't help themselves
― Mordy, Sunday, 9 September 2012 00:55 (eleven years ago) link
romney praising a speech in which the guy said he was going to do horrible things to special needs children
It's going to end Medicare as we know it. And a lot of that money is also spent to help people with disabilities, including a lot of middle-class families whose kids have Down's syndrome or autism or other severe conditions.
And, honestly, just think about it. If that happens, I don't know what those families are going to do. So I know what I'm going to do: I'm going to do everything I can to see that it doesn't happen. We can't let it happen. We can't.
― lag∞n, Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:01 (eleven years ago) link
lots of elected dems started praising reagan 10-15 years after he left officethink its diminish your opponent by talking about how the other side used to have heavy hitters back in the day, now they have this chump
― buzza, Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:06 (eleven years ago) link
They also can't really run on "all Dems are bad" when the last really good times the country had were presided over by Clinton. By accepting that he was good, they aren't drawing themselves as complete opposites to someone generally agreed to have been successful, at least for the economy and thus for the average punter.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:12 (eleven years ago) link
but he srsly gave props to a speech which basically laid out the case for why he is a horrible person
― lag∞n, Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:14 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah that's pretty stupid.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:14 (eleven years ago) link
He's basically not very good at executing the ideas.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:15 (eleven years ago) link
you still seem to have no clue about what i believe beyond your conviction that i'm the strawman obama groupie you think everyone on ilx is― Mordy, Saturday, September 8, 2012 4:56 PM (4 hours ago)
Hear, hear. Having been caricatured on here as a gossipy political horserace junkie, even though I seem to pay attention to the same things most everyone else does (and conceding that there's some truth in that, as there is in most caricatures), I know what a drag that can be.
― clemenza, Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:16 (eleven years ago) link
Romney joined Republican Virginia Senate candidate George Allen in serving hotdogs to fans under a tent at the Richmond International Raceway, and hundreds passed through asking for autographs and offering Romney words of support.
Romney struggled to connect with blue-collar fans of NASCAR at the Daytona 500 event in February when he said he had "some friends who are NASCAR team owners."
The comment opened the former private equity executive to criticism that he was out of touch with ordinary voters.
On Saturday, a driving rain delayed the Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race and sent most of the fans running for cover.
When asked who his favorite driver was, Romney responded: "There's a lot of drivers I like."
― if markers existed (buzza), Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:20 (eleven years ago) link
i think republicans think they're doing some sneaky 'divide and conquer' thing by talking about how much better Clinton clearly is than Obama as if, y'know, Clinton was capable of running again or as if him being on the outs with Obama again would effect anything
― manic pixie, mercy, yo chick she's so quirky (some dude), Sunday, 9 September 2012 01:30 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan's slash and burn views on Medicare & will scare enough senior citizens to secure a win for Obama in FLA & the possibility of R/R picking up enough other swing states to compensate for that is highly unlikely.
― Broney, Pt. 1 (Pillbox), Sunday, 9 September 2012 03:17 (eleven years ago) link
er Medicare & Social Security
― Broney, Pt. 1 (Pillbox), Sunday, 9 September 2012 03:18 (eleven years ago) link
Lol at NASCAR anecdote
― Raymond Cummings, Sunday, 9 September 2012 04:20 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/sept-8-conventions-may-put-obama-in-front-runners-position/
― Mordy, Sunday, 9 September 2012 04:38 (eleven years ago) link
Mittens has to be sweating at this point. Countdown til some ill-starred "shakeup" of his campaign team/strategy...
― Doctor Casino, Sunday, 9 September 2012 04:43 (eleven years ago) link
fwiw clemenza, i find your horserace junkiedom endearing and only settled on those particular adjectives to describe u bc iirc u used them to describe yourself first
― Mordy, Sunday, 9 September 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
Fair enough. I do have a habit of trying to preempt potential criticsm by levelling it at myself first.
― clemenza, Sunday, 9 September 2012 18:58 (eleven years ago) link
you are canadian after all
― lag∞n, Sunday, 9 September 2012 20:57 (eleven years ago) link
and a teacher
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 9 September 2012 21:00 (eleven years ago) link
Obama up to 80.7% this morning on 538.
― Mordy, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:02 (eleven years ago) link
haha okay now that seems ridiculous to me
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 13:21 (eleven years ago) link
That's his "chance of winning," not his polling, note.
― Doctor Casino, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:39 (eleven years ago) link
His polling is at 237.8%
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:44 (eleven years ago) link
I know it's his chance of winning, I just remain semi-skeptical that he's overcoming the kneejerk racist backlash by THAT wide a margin
like, mid-70s I could be more confident in
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 13:51 (eleven years ago) link
yeah that is insane
― Mr. Que, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
5% racism miscalculation
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:57 (eleven years ago) link
He's leading Ohio by 5. If he wins there his chance of winning is near 100%.
― Plasmon, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:57 (eleven years ago) link
if obama win ohio or florida its over say good night
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:58 (eleven years ago) link
it's a tricky thing to calculate, racism
ppl often forget to carry the 2/5
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 13:59 (eleven years ago) link
lawl
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 13:59 (eleven years ago) link
http://dsdtglobal.com/images/nodding_head_1_.gif
― goole, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:00 (eleven years ago) link
imagining Madonna joining Obama on stage election night to duet on "Take a Bow."
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:06 (eleven years ago) link
You've just given me a reason to vote for Romney.
― NR’s resident heavy-metal expert (Nicole), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:06 (eleven years ago) link
I'd probably wait a couple of days till that last jobs report registers in the polling. Obama definitely seems to be ahead; I still see it more like 65/35, but then I spent most of '08 waiting for the roof to cave in. There's still the debates, still the various September economic reports, and I bet one more unexpected development. Canada severed all diplomatic ties with Iran yesterday, and now Netanyahu has called us "The leaders of the Western World." (Take that, America!) So the we've-fallen-behind-Canada-as-a-world-power issue will obviously loom large.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
I honestly think Obama's going to beat Romney like a tied-up goat in the debates.
― Irwin Dante's Towering Inferno (WmC), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:18 (eleven years ago) link
I doubt debates will change anyone's mind.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe they'll change Romney's mind? Certainly I think they'll hurt Ryan, which will affect Republican future.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:21 (eleven years ago) link
"anyone" seems a little broad.
― Mr. Que, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
I still see it more like 65/35
i don't mean to nitpick, but the reason i like 538 is that nate actually deploys his model to come up w/ his numbers. he doesn't make them up based on anecdotal evidence or his gut feeling. not that he's necessarily right and you're wrong, but i trust him more
― Mordy, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe they'll change Romney's mind?
maybe he'll drop out after the first one! ("Eh, fuck this").
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
not that he's necessarily right and you're wrong, but i trust him more
Wise move. Whenever I got discouraged in '08, Silver was a beacon of sanity, for the exact reasons you mention.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:24 (eleven years ago) link
I have a lot of belief in the 538 statistical model; I'm mostly boggling at how high that percentage chance of winning is and think it will correct back down over the next week.
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:25 (eleven years ago) link
i don't understand why the nowcast thing turned around so abruptly. is that all the dnc convention?
― caek, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:26 (eleven years ago) link
Watching Ryan try to bluster his way through the whole 'I voted for sequestration, but I didn't really, and besides it's Obama's fault' thing yesterday I envision him coming out of the debates looking more weaselly, not less.
― Ermahgerd Thomas (Dan Peterson), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:27 (eleven years ago) link
watching Alaskan reactions to the Biden/Palin debate really made me realize that most ppl who actually watch the debates have already made up their minds who will win them before they even start
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:30 (eleven years ago) link
yeah it's like rooting for your team
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 14:31 (eleven years ago) link
It's an 80/20 split in favour of a 51%-49% rousing sweep against a 49%-51% humbling defeat.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:34 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, that's why I downplay the odds. I realize Silver's model is partly based on realistic routes to victory, and that Romney's are few. It's just that so many of the alleged swing-state margins are very small.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 14:47 (eleven years ago) link
All it would take is footage of Obama, when no-one's not looking, pouring a beer into a plant pot...
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
when no-one's not looking
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
I actually think the racist vote will be smaller this year than it was in '08, for the simple reason that the black guy already won once, and the world didn't end. They're demoralized.
― 誤訳侮辱, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:09 (eleven years ago) link
Plus: more racists have died in the last four years.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 15:14 (eleven years ago) link
Romney's team working overtime on the "Look it's okay to have voted for him, lots of exciting historical reasons for voting for him, but it's okay to feel that maybe he wasn't right for the job. Right? Riiight? *cough*affirmativeaction" though.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 15:15 (eleven years ago) link
^That's the vibe I'm getting from the crap I hear from my mum. "He's a very nice man, I'm sure, but he *just isn't up to the job*" but srsly al these buzzwords and dog-whistles remind me of watching waves hitting a beach with less and less force as the tide goes out. Have been applying scorched-earth policy to family members by just calling them on the crypto-racism or just plain presenting them with how the three viewpoints they simultaneously hold are incompatible and maybe they better not repeat that shit outside the family lest they be taken as COMPLETELY FUCKING STUPID.
Sigh.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:09 (eleven years ago) link
Just ask them how much their life saving were down in 2008 vs. now.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
is "He's a very nice man, I'm sure, but he *just isn't up to the job* a dog whistle? I've been hearing variants since Reagan.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
Obama's going to beat Romney like a tied-up goat
I have no idea who's gonna win but this is my new favorite phrase
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:18 (eleven years ago) link
xp When it's my mom saying it, YES. She has never pulled this shit when talking about another president, and it is as if Obama has to be three times as good at presidentin' as the incredibly meatheaded white candidates for her to decide he was competent. Plus, creative Michelle Obama dissing, how else am I gonna get the angry white person's latest remix of what they say when they really mean 'uppity' :-(.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:20 (eleven years ago) link
debates don't really change anyone's mind (Alfred OTM - the people who tune in and pay attention are already partisans) but they are usually pretty entertaining and duh Obama is gonna murder Romney how can there be any doubt
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:22 (eleven years ago) link
oh yah def, suzy
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:24 (eleven years ago) link
Obama might suddenly blurt out, "Goddamn, America!" That would be a problem.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:25 (eleven years ago) link
― caek, Monday, September 10, 2012 10:26 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
silver had a post saying basically his formula assumed a baseline convention bounce larger for the challenger than the incumbent which romney really needed but when he didnt get it it let to a fairly large correction, then obama did get a bounce so
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:28 (eleven years ago) link
Silver's got a book coming
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:29 (eleven years ago) link
Don't think debates in and of themselves change minds, but a clearly terrible performance can definitely hurt. Palin, for example, was helped by not totally flubbing it. Had she totally fucked up, her reputation would have eroded even faster. If Romney and Ryan simply hang in there, I think they benefit. But if Obama and Biden hammer them, they definitely come out weaker. The challenge is how to do that without coming off like Gore in 2000, but neither Obama nor Biden seem that sort.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:30 (eleven years ago) link
I'd probably wait a couple of days till that last jobs report registers in the polling.
― clemenza, Monday, September 10, 2012 10:15 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
jobs are a huge deal in this election obvs, individual job reports i suspect not so much, particularly when they keep being in the same ballpark aka limping toward recovery, which at this point p clearly favors obama
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:31 (eleven years ago) link
debates matter, particularly if a sweet zing occurs
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:32 (eleven years ago) link
I think the most important aspect of the DNC came via Clinton, when he reminded everyone how badly the US was losing jobs in 2008. That and saving the auto industry is prima facia proof that while things may not be good, we are certainly better off. There is absolutely no way to refute that. The narrative was so mired in the miserable jobs situation that many lost sight of the fact that it could be much, much worse.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:40 (eleven years ago) link
this guy thinks michelle was better than bill http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/09/the-extremely-persuasive-michelle-obama
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:42 (eleven years ago) link
more racists have died in the last four years.
And... more have been born into racist families in racist neighborhoods in a society that has hundreds of years of institutionalized racism coursing through its veins.
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
Wait, four year olds can vote?
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:48 (eleven years ago) link
GOTTA CORNER THE INFANT ELECTORATE
Can I just point out to everyone boggling at Obama at 80% how absolutely horribly low public perception of the Republican party is and what an awful candidate Romney is. It's mind-boggling that anyone would vote that guy, frankly.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:50 (eleven years ago) link
ha I was going to make Tracer's post but from the standpoint of "how many of the dead racists have been replaced by racists newly legal to vote" in order to avoid that joke
do like the idea of Romney pandering to the toddler vote tho
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
"Palin, for example, was helped by not totally flubbing it. Had she totally fucked up, her reputation would have eroded even faster."
How could it have eroded any faster?!?!?
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
when they keep being in the same ballpark aka limping toward recovery, which at this point p clearly favors obama
Yeah, that does seem to be the case; expectations have been adjusted, and 50,000-100,000 seems to be good enough. If a really bad report came through, something in the red, I'm sure that would present a problem.
― clemenza, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
Trying to imagine the world where Romney's trying to hang with DJ Lance Rock.
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
child voting rights is a worthy topic for speculative fiction imho
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
(also Alex, I don't doubt for a second that Obama is an overwhelming favorite at the moment, I just thought that American stubbornness re: changing one's mind would have mitigated more of that than it actually has based on Silver's model, hence me expecting a percentage chance number in the 70s rather than just over 80)
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 16:55 (eleven years ago) link
If a really bad report came through, something in the red, I'm sure that would present a problem.
― clemenza, Monday, September 10, 2012 12:54 PM (44 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
i think wed maybe have to see a trend for this to matter, like two maybe three months, jobs move slow is the thing, an 08 like financial collapse on the other hand could bring down obama p fast
― lag∞n, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:56 (eleven years ago) link
absolutely horribly low public perception of the Republican party is
citation needed
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:56 (eleven years ago) link
"The Republican party sucks." - me
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 10 September 2012 16:58 (eleven years ago) link
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/08/21/approval-of-congress-matches-all-time-low/
Last week, a Gallup poll reported that Congress’s approval rating had hit 10%, matching a 38-year-low in that poll last reached in February 2011. [...] The poll also shows that President Barack Obama’s party maintains an edge in likability, with 42% viewing it positively and 40% negatively. When asked of the GOP, 36% said they held positive impressions and 45% had negative ones.
[...]
The poll also shows that President Barack Obama’s party maintains an edge in likability, with 42% viewing it positively and 40% negatively. When asked of the GOP, 36% said they held positive impressions and 45% had negative ones.
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Monday, 10 September 2012 17:00 (eleven years ago) link
damn, the cook political report costs $350 a year
― "Pffft" --buddha (silby), Monday, 10 September 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link
seems like romney is sinking after a terrible week, arguably his worst yetrepubs + everyone else are blasting him for dissing obama only 15 minutes before he made a statement on the murders in libyahis bumbling lack of direction is what gives me hope
― spazzmatazz, Thursday, 13 September 2012 16:31 (eleven years ago) link
I dunno, I'm less concerned about romney looking terrible than I am about people's irrational hatred of obama. I've got some conservative distant relatives as FB friends and today one of them posted about obama being weak on libya. feels like at this point he could put on a suit of armor and lead the troops into battle and conservative voters would still call him weak on defense. a buddy of mine works at an auto body shop in RI, prolly the bluest state in the nation, and there's a pretty deep and widespread hatred of obama there as well.
I'm hoping these are weird pockets of discontent. the polls would certainly indicate so.
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 18:49 (eleven years ago) link
if only these conservative white people had a strong black man to rally around. that would satisfy them. there's nothing conservative white people love more than a strong black man.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 13 September 2012 19:00 (eleven years ago) link
lol
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
I'm hoping there's some kind of reverse bradley effect in play where these people go into the voting booth and cannot bring themselves to pull the lever for a complete idiot, no matter what they say publicly
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
The real question is how it might have separated the 'would vote for zombie hitler if nominated Republican nominee' from the would-be independents who lean right. She didn't lose everybody since she came across to a lot of Independent women and white ppl, as a woman they were likely to have known and she didn't entirely flub it in the face of Biden's condescension. However, she probably turned away as many upper middle class, moderate Republican women as she kept 'starbursts' men.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 19:53 (eleven years ago) link
i wouldn't go around saying mitt's handling of the embassy attacks has hurt his chances until you start to see some polling evidence that it's hurting his chances. yes even the gatekeeper press is giving him poor marks but that may not matter.
― goole, Thursday, 13 September 2012 19:56 (eleven years ago) link
it might reach a point where romney's floor can't go any lower no matter what he does
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
The Republicans are still so much in thrall to the past (i.e. Reagan) that they're always rehashing stuff that worked once but is presently considered settled by everyone who isn't a die-hard. Name a competitive Socialist party in Europe that actually believes in the State taking over all the means of production? The new-found and largely incoherent Muslimphobia on the Right (Really? Sharia is your fear?) is weakened by the 'US is a Christian nation' silliness of the Xtian Right for Libertarians and Independents. The Republican brand is horribly weak right now; the kids are less racist, anti-immigrant and homophobic than in the past, there are fewer 'intellectuals' and they're less and less relevant and mostly scared of engaging with facts, the economy has been mixed since the 30's yet less sclerotically than in ages; all that's left are shrill zombies pissed off that the world doesn't revolve around their entitled little precious selves as much as when they were kids. Good luck finding a way to sell that as a path to a brighter future with that. It's the politics of pouting and even Reagan, God curse his Stanic soul, actually offered a brighter option than 'malaise' however wrong-headed he was.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
Romney isn't the problem; the Republican coalition is the problem.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:05 (eleven years ago) link
also dem party has legit co-opted many of the republicans most loved ideas
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
like why would foreign affair hawks stick w/ the republican party when obama is such a stone cold motherfucking killer?
Tomasky remarked today that if Obama is reelected then he will have taken the Democratic Party back to '48.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:07 (eleven years ago) link
That sounds about right
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
w/o Thurmond, tho
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, this makes sense:
http://gawker.com/5943076/rush-limbaugh-theorizes-that-al-qaeda-gave-bin-laden-up-to-help-obama-win-re+election
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:18 (eleven years ago) link
I really want to read a good history that addresses Johnson's claim that the Civil Rights act of '64 would lose the South for the Democratic Party and the radical, historical shift of the South from the bedrock of Democratic politics to the bedrock of Republican politics. From NASCAR to unborn fetuses to racial backlash about bussing and welfare, etc..., the egalitarian streak in Scotch-Irish commoners is now little about politics and rights and mostly about cultural butt-hurtedness. If they weren't such dicks I'd be happy to condescendingly feel bad about how fucked they've been by their 'betters'.
― Adesso vorrei assistere alle esequie vichinghe (Michael White), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:19 (eleven years ago) link
mw otm
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:19 (eleven years ago) link
throw in "the rise of the Sunbelt, decline of manfacturing"
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:21 (eleven years ago) link
manufacturing too
I think a total collapse of the republican party in our lifetime is not even a particularly radical prediction at this point. they've dug the hole too deep.
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
when romney gets 48% of the vote i think we're a long way off from a "collapse"
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
you guys are talking as if right-wing butt-hurtedness is some kind of formula for failure in times like these
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:27 (eleven years ago) link
yah, Romney's "no apologies/Obama is a wimp" line is actually resonating with the base right now.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
Well the convention and Ryan pick didn't do it (in terms of, say, Palin levels).
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:30 (eleven years ago) link
Has anybody taken into account the yard sign/bumper sticker factor? By this point last year I was seeing a fair amount of McCain/Palin bumper stickers, even in Democrat-laden Chicago, but I can still count on one hand the number of Romney stickers I've seen. And in 2008 when I drove through rural Wisconsin, I saw hundreds of McCain yard signs. Making the same trip this year (though two weeks earlier, to be fair) I only say a handful of Romney yard signs.
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:36 (eleven years ago) link
er, obvs "last election" in that second sentence
Barely seen anything for Romney here in OC.
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
and the McCain campaign was not setting any engagement/enthusiasm records, either
― the physical impossibility of sb in the mind of someone fping (silby), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
romney can only pull 48% w/ this economy + that 48% is overwhelmingly made up of waning demographics + the hardest core republicans already don't even want to be called republicans = there's plenty of room for stuff to happen over the next decade
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:38 (eleven years ago) link
people were freaking out about how awesome palin was though.
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:40 (eleven years ago) link
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
i think a social + economically libertarian republican party could do very well in the future
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
he shot himself in the foot so bad with that libya shit, can't wait to see him do it again and again
― the late great, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
xp you mean democratic party, right?
/morbs
and the obama fear factor the right wing was playing up was stronger. they're still beating that drum but 4 yrs have shown that he's not letting al qaeda into the white house to hang out and plot.
i don't think so xp
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
romney and paul might win, idk. but obama's energizing his base pretty well and the repubs just seem like assholes.
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:42 (eleven years ago) link
i think that's what it will come down to.
nov 6 forecast still at 80% but obama nowcast is now at 91.6%
― Mordy, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:44 (eleven years ago) link
saw a number of Romney signs in yards in Alexandria, Virginia (a mostly liberal town in Northern VA). They were outnumbered by the yards with no signs(the silent Obama majority!)
― curmudgeon, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:45 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, and a 51.2% - 47.5% popular vote landslide.
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
that's a landslide?
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
I've seen alot of R/R bumper stickers on cars in Atlanta, which is more or less a Dem oasis in a vast sea of Republicans.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:51 (eleven years ago) link
Atlanta, maybe, the Atlanta metro area not so much so
― Brad C., Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:55 (eleven years ago) link
xp Nah, I'm underlining Tracer's point upthread, that getting 48% of the vote isn't exactly the sign of a party on the decrease. Though some of that is just How Politics Works these days, it's been 28 years since the runner-up got less than 45% of the vote (after you throw out any third-parties).
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
By the estimation of Nate Silver, a "landslide" is a ten percent or higher edge over the opponent.
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
I assume that's electoral votes. Ten percent in the popular vote seems unlikely nowadays. :(
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Thursday, 13 September 2012 20:59 (eleven years ago) link
That's funny, I was just pondering the other day, here in Atlanta, why I've seen almost NO Romney bumperstickers this close to voting day.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:03 (eleven years ago) link
Even Dukakis was within eight points with 45.7%--and the electoral was 426-111 that year. (Mondale, on the other hand, barely inched over 40%.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:04 (eleven years ago) link
when 48% becomes yr roof, you have a big picture problem, even if you can still win a (democratically unrepresentative) congress on a good year.
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:08 (eleven years ago) link
so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:09 (eleven years ago) link
i saw one but it turned out it said "nobama" and i thought i heard someone say "obama" the other day but they said "fauxbama."
― omar little, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
If registered Democrats were as likely to vote as registered Republicans, the margin would be a lot wider.
― o. nate, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:11 (eleven years ago) link
In Atlanta? SO MANY.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:14 (eleven years ago) link
Bama, Bama, Bo BamaFaux Bama Fanna, Faux BamaFee Fie, No BamaObama!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MJLi5_dyn0
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:16 (eleven years ago) link
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qilVUxdSdKo/T9qYMQE4QsI/AAAAAAAASYw/rmb3D5ONhvo/s1600/BARRY+CHOOM+OBAMA+VERSUS+MITT+Romney.jpg
this pretty much sums it all up for me
― Spectrum, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link
i wonder if "close" (ie, non-landslide) elections aren't just a permanent reality now--given the media environment, polling, and the mutability of the political parties. they're kinda *too* good to allow either side to really get swamped. the "middle" will just get shifted to wherever certain antagonisms can be best exploited.
― ryan, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link
I think so, pretty much, at least until some huge paradigm shift like another Great Depression.
― The specifics are these, which is those principles I described (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:27 (eleven years ago) link
Our politics have been a binary system for over 150 years now. That's several wars, one depression, many recessions, several Constitutional amendments, among other things. It will take something positively seismic to bump a third or fourth party into prominence.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:30 (eleven years ago) link
Sullivan just pointed to this:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107177/daily-breakdown-fox-news-poll-undermines-romneys-theory-the-race
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:32 (eleven years ago) link
I agree w/ that johnny fever, I just don't think the 2nd party will be called the republican party
― iatee, Thursday, 13 September 2012 21:51 (eleven years ago) link
yeah the GOP will just morph into something else. but the GOP as we've known it since most of us were born is dying and is gonna die within my lifetime.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 13 September 2012 22:07 (eleven years ago) link
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:14 PM (1 hour ago)
so guess what was on the car in front of me when I pulled off the hwy lol
that said I don't feel a lot of passion from either side this go-around, maybe because ppl realize our problems are so deep and long term at this point they can't be fixed in one term - 10 year wars, 5 year recessions
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:03 (eleven years ago) link
honestly i don't see the republican party disappearing any time soon. the current two-party system's been more or less stable for a century, and i think the tea partiers breaking off and forming their own party and getting 2 percent of the vote in 2016 is more likely than the GOP breaking apart and dissolving.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:06 (eleven years ago) link
The 27% crazification factor continues to hold true:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8305/7982844829_b64b827613.jpg27-percent-again by dengre.bj, on Flickr
Xxxxxxxxpost to Edward III, I've seen a lot of Obama stickers in NE Ohio.
― Darren Robocopsky (Phil D.), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:10 (eleven years ago) link
GOP probably not going anywhere anytime soon
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/13/major-ron-paul-operative-jesse-benton-departs-to-work-for-the-ranking-republican-senator-mitch-mcconnell.html
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:11 (eleven years ago) link
it's not going anywhere, it's just going to change into a radically different animal
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:13 (eleven years ago) link
true. it will be interesting watching them walk back significant portions of their platform - particularly in the social arena - in the years to come. i'd be willing to bet there won't be any mainstream candidates publicly against marriage equality by 2020.
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:17 (eleven years ago) link
mainstream POTUS candidates, that is
― it's smdh time in America (will), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:18 (eleven years ago) link
I've been trying to keep my optimism in check but when I heard OH was trending obama I thought "it's curtains for mittens"
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:19 (eleven years ago) link
"it's curtains for mittens" is deathcab for cutie tribute band afaik
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Thursday, 13 September 2012 23:26 (eleven years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/oIves.png
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:28 (eleven years ago) link
I think tea partiers backing down is likely too. People have become really rabid about politics. I mean, I'm not voting Republican but the way people talk Mitt Romney is worse than Ronald Reagan!
― โตเกียวเหมียวเหมียว aka Italo Night at Some Gay Club (Mount Cleaners), Friday, 14 September 2012 13:30 (eleven years ago) link
― iatee, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:51 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
seems much more likely the gop will just go through a fallow period then shift their coalition, but who know either is possible, a new party would be p exciting i wonder what their animal will be
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:31 (eleven years ago) link
a chupacabra
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 13:33 (eleven years ago) link
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 00:17 (14 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Dunno, I've been seeing a lot of thinking along the lines of "The upcoming demographics are pretty socially conservative but won't vote for the Republicans while they're so racist - if they can shift that plank then the future is theirs"
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:34 (eleven years ago) link
assuming social conservatism will be concerned w/the same issues it is now in ten years and that whatever demographics youre trying to slice and dice will hold the same views is prob not going to work out, will is right that marriage equality will be mainstream in short order, just as interracial marriage is today
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:47 (eleven years ago) link
republicans can't shift the racist plank when its the only plank left
upcoming demographics aren't socially conservative
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:48 (eleven years ago) link
racism is what their base demands
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:50 (eleven years ago) link
its like if you go to a concert and the band refuses to play any of its hits
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:51 (eleven years ago) link
facebook win
"Brace yourself for a tidal wave of Facebook campaigning before November’s U.S. presidential election. A study of 61 million Facebook users finds that using online social networks to urge people to vote has a much stronger effect on their voting behavior than spamming them with information via television ads or phone calls, Science Now reports.
The study follows a Science paper that tracked how people influence each other’s online behavior through Facebook.
On Election Day, about 60 million people received a message that encouraged them to vote. It included links to local polling stations, a clickable “I Voted” button, and photos of six of their randomly chosen friends who had already clicked the “I Voted” button.
The photos apparently worked: People who received messages alerting them that their friends had voted were 0.39% more likely to vote than those who received messages with no social information. That translates to an additional 282,000 votes cast, the team reports online today in Nature."
― Brian Eno's Mother (Latham Green), Friday, 14 September 2012 13:51 (eleven years ago) link
right, they're fucked cause being less racist *loses* them more votes and enthusiasm than it gains xp
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:52 (eleven years ago) link
facebook posts are the new yard signs
― Mordy, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
except you can block all the ones you don;t want to see
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
btw i had a dream last night that i was elected senator and they had a super sweet party to welcome all the n00bs in
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:56 (eleven years ago) link
Always been interesting that republican party has been so invested in identity politics. I guess whether you think they will survive or not depends on whether they will continue on the positive feedback loop of chasing a dwindling demographic or if, at a certain tipping point, there will be a top down change when they are effectively locked out of power. Tho, again, this may underestimate how effective campaigns and media are and how fast they can change.
― ryan, Friday, 14 September 2012 13:57 (eleven years ago) link
i could see them start to chase a (faux) libertarian, but essentially 'pro-life' demographic. it will still be lily-white tho for a long time.
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:04 (eleven years ago) link
so not much different than now. just an appeal to younger people by being 'cool' w/ weed and gays and maybe atheists?
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:06 (eleven years ago) link
not sure how that would sit w/all their people who hate weed gays and atheists
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
xp That's ... pretty different?
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:09 (eleven years ago) link
lol @ the idea of an atheist friendly right-wing party in america
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:10 (eleven years ago) link
I'm sure there are gop members of congress who would be fine w/ making monotheism a requirement for american citizenship
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:11 (eleven years ago) link
maybe 'cool' is a stretch. less antagonistic?
but still, you know, trying to drown the government in the bathtub (except for basic middle class entitlements)
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:13 (eleven years ago) link
Might poll the order in which the Republicans will warm to weed / gays / atheists / Latinos / women. And the point past which the return on votes lost / votes won switches (spoiler: before they get to atheists)
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:13 (eleven years ago) link
except you can block all the ones you don't want to see
I live in an overwhelmingly liberal, or at least Democratic leaning, inner-burb. One of my neighbors, a token Republican, had in their front yard this huge yard sign up - like, 12 feet by 8 feet or something - that proclaimed "Repeal Obamacare!" The sign was up for something like 9 months, at least, on a busy street corner, lit up at night. A few weeks ago there was an OpEd in the local paper from these neighbors, complaining about harassment - eggings, TPings, people supposedly defacing the sign. After all those months, they finally had to take the sign down. In the OpEd they went on to decry the lack of support in a supposedly open-minded community, claiming the sign was just a friendly political competition among neighbors. One of my favorite letters in response basically agreed that it was unfortunate they felt their opinion was being silenced. But, it went on to say, at least they took down their giant, ugly, fucking eye-sore of a sign.
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:14 (eleven years ago) link
people suck - remember that
― Brian Eno's Mother (Latham Green), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, September 14, 2012 10:13 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
this is an interesting question, im going with gays weed women latinos atheists
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
fair point
maybe atheists? maybe non-Christians/Jews
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:20 (eleven years ago) link
cant believe no one just didnt take that sign from them, show some heart suburban chicago
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:20 (eleven years ago) link
(except NO MUSLINS)
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:21 (eleven years ago) link
Atheists vs. Christians is probably the biggest red herring in the deal. Pretty much none of the Republican policies are in line w anything Christ The Lord and Savior Who Liberals Hate espoused or practiced. Framing it this way is unhelpful for the left, as there have been plenty of Christian religious leaders coming out on helping the poor, doing something about health care, cutting back on defense, etc.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:48 (eleven years ago) link
In order of how likely the Republican party is to try to embrace:
Gays (embrace in this case just means accept that you will not be able to stone them and stop trying to pass fucked up legislation)Latinos StonersWomen (if this means getting all pro-abortion then really this is never)Atheists (hahahahaha)
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
xpost The sign was huge and affixed to the side of the house! I don't think anyone could take it, but it clearly made for an easy target.
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 14 September 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
I can't believe it is September 2012 and this shit KEEPS HAPPENING
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, an informal advisor to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said on Thursday he and his fellow members of a state board were considering removing President Barack Obama from the Kansas ballot this November.Kobach is part of the State Objections Board along with Attorney General Derek Schmidt and Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer, all Republicans. The Topeka Capital-Journal reported that on Thursday the board agreed to consider whether to take Obama off the ballot because they said they lacked sufficient evidence about his birth certificate.“I don’t think it’s a frivolous objection,” Kobach said, according to the Capital-Journal. “I do think the factual record could be supplemented.”The board is looking at a complaint filed by Joe Montgomery, of Manhattan, Kan., who claimed the Obama is not a natural born U.S. citizen and so is ineligible to be president. The man appears to be part of a group of conspiracy theorists known as “birthers,” who deny Obama’s birth certificate is real.Late Thursday, Kobach told TPM in an email conversation that he made his “frivolous objection” comment at the end of the meeting and was responding to a specific question.“A ‘frivolous’ argument, in legal terms, is one that cannot reasonably be made under any circumstances,” Kobach wrote. “The objection passed that very low threshold, which is not saying much.”The board will send records requests to Hawaii, Arizona and Mississippi for more documentation of Obama’s birth. They plan to meet again on Monday to discuss the matter. Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett questioned Obama’s birth certificate earlier this year and also briefly considered removing him from the ballot.
Kobach is part of the State Objections Board along with Attorney General Derek Schmidt and Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer, all Republicans. The Topeka Capital-Journal reported that on Thursday the board agreed to consider whether to take Obama off the ballot because they said they lacked sufficient evidence about his birth certificate.
“I don’t think it’s a frivolous objection,” Kobach said, according to the Capital-Journal. “I do think the factual record could be supplemented.”
The board is looking at a complaint filed by Joe Montgomery, of Manhattan, Kan., who claimed the Obama is not a natural born U.S. citizen and so is ineligible to be president. The man appears to be part of a group of conspiracy theorists known as “birthers,” who deny Obama’s birth certificate is real.
Late Thursday, Kobach told TPM in an email conversation that he made his “frivolous objection” comment at the end of the meeting and was responding to a specific question.
“A ‘frivolous’ argument, in legal terms, is one that cannot reasonably be made under any circumstances,” Kobach wrote. “The objection passed that very low threshold, which is not saying much.”
The board will send records requests to Hawaii, Arizona and Mississippi for more documentation of Obama’s birth. They plan to meet again on Monday to discuss the matter. Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett questioned Obama’s birth certificate earlier this year and also briefly considered removing him from the ballot.
― a shark with a rippling six pack (Phil D.), Friday, 14 September 2012 14:59 (eleven years ago) link
All they are is dust on the shoulder
― da croupier, Friday, 14 September 2012 15:04 (eleven years ago) link
Wasn't gonna win Kansas anyway
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:10 (eleven years ago) link
xp I'm enjoying that that the Obama campaign is treating them as such, just staring them down, daring them to actually put on the hayseed clownsuit on national TV. It's not like he's going to win Kansas anyway.
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 September 2012 15:11 (eleven years ago) link
Atheists vs. Christians is probably the biggest red herring in the deal. Pretty much none of the Republican policies are in line w anything Christ The Lord and Savior Who Liberals Hate espoused or practiced
First you wanna talk about Christians, then you wanna talk about Christ - pick a subject and stick to it!
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 14 September 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
have we done this one? this is some LOL-ass buffoonery right here
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/romney-adviser-under-president-romney-libya-attack-never-would-have-happened.php
Romney foreign policy adviser/ W. remnant Richard Williamson said that if Romney had been President, the attack in Libya would not have happened
He blamed the attack that killed Stevens on Obama’s handling of the region, arguing that the Muslim world would have held the hypothetical Romney administration of 2008-2012 in much greater esteem, which would have prevented violent protests over an anti-Muslim film like the one that led to Stevens’s death.
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:37 (eleven years ago) link
lolwhut
― DARING PRINCESS (DJP), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:41 (eleven years ago) link
I'm not voting Republican but the way people talk Mitt Romney is worse than Ronald Reagan!
He is. Judged in the context of the times, so is the other guy.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:42 (eleven years ago) link
(xposts) Much like "the muslim world" held W. in such great esteem that 9/11 never happened. I see...
― The specifics are these, which is those principles I described (Dan Peterson), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:43 (eleven years ago) link
The logic is pretty baffling, in that one would believe Obama is a secret Muslim yet is not held in high enough esteem in the Muslim world?
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:44 (eleven years ago) link
He's too secret!
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 14 September 2012 15:45 (eleven years ago) link
*dying*
― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 15:47 (eleven years ago) link
He cannot go a day, literally a day, without something like this happening.
BOSTON (AP) — Mitt Romney is promising to reduce taxes on middle-income Americans.But how does he define "middle-income"? The Republican presidential nominee defined it as income of $200,000 to $250,000 a year.Romney commented during an interview broadcast Friday on ABC's "Good Morning America."The Census Bureau reported this week that the median household income — the midpoint for the nation — is just over $50,000.
But how does he define "middle-income"? The Republican presidential nominee defined it as income of $200,000 to $250,000 a year.
Romney commented during an interview broadcast Friday on ABC's "Good Morning America."
The Census Bureau reported this week that the median household income — the midpoint for the nation — is just over $50,000.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/14/romney-middle-income_n_1883819.html
― a shark with a rippling six pack (Phil D.), Friday, 14 September 2012 16:05 (eleven years ago) link
haha wow
― real men have been preparing manly dishes for centuries (elmo argonaut), Friday, 14 September 2012 16:20 (eleven years ago) link
lol just came here to post that
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 14 September 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
how many douchechills can he
― Nhex, Friday, 14 September 2012 17:00 (eleven years ago) link
you are fucking kidding me
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:01 (eleven years ago) link
if a democrat nominee had said that the press wouldn't have enough nails for his coffin
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:02 (eleven years ago) link
And yet I have plenty of struggling relatives making well under that $50k figure that think Romney is their saviour.
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:03 (eleven years ago) link
he did (link taken from gawker story): "In a recent speech, President Barack Obama referred to the "middle class" 14 times, defining it as a family that makes up to $250,000 a year."
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0718/What-does-it-mean-to-be-middle-class
― congratulations (n/a), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:03 (eleven years ago) link
but "up to" means a hell of a lot more than "$200k-$250k"
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:04 (eleven years ago) link
is more inclusive of, y'know, reality
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:05 (eleven years ago) link
i'm guessing that was a misphrasing on romney's part? number aside, it would be weird to define middle income with a range of just $50,000. but maybe i'm being overly charitable.
― congratulations (n/a), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:06 (eleven years ago) link
like what proportion of americans would fall under "middle income" if he was defining it literally as $200,000 to $250,000 in income?
― congratulations (n/a), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:08 (eleven years ago) link
good god
“I think the challenge that I’ll have in the debate is that the president tends to, how shall I say it, to say things that aren’t true,” Romney said. “I’ve looked at prior debates. And in that kind of case, it’s difficult to say, ‘Well, am I going to spend my time correcting things that aren’t quite accurate? Or am I going to spend my time talking about the things I want to talk about?”
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link
i think its just a reflection of how completely out of touch he is with what most Americans actually earn. in his view, that probably seems like a reasonable estimate. the $250,000 has been a number kicked around a lot as kind of a middle-class upper limit this cycle, so i can see why he picked that as an upper limit. he probably can't even fathom how people making under $200k even live, so he just threw that one in.
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link
yeah when youre dealing with numbers that small, whole orders of magnitude are indistinguishible. scale becomes a huge problem.
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:13 (eleven years ago) link
sorry guys, this is bullshit - the whole quote is “Middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 and less."
http://www.salon.com/2012/09/14/mitt_romney_defines_middle_income_as_200_250000/
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:13 (eleven years ago) link
i.e. more or less the way Obama has been defining it
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:14 (eleven years ago) link
And less
― Matt Armstrong, Friday, 14 September 2012 17:17 (eleven years ago) link
you guys are really masters of freaking out over one guy's BS vs another guy's high crimes.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:19 (eleven years ago) link
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41MR6E2REZL._SL500_AA300_.jpg
― free-range chicken pox (Matt P), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:22 (eleven years ago) link
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRB2h37tedkN_3Sz0ilydnf3OpPRo1_BY9AzuKHCksZKSajGyFY-8LJfbYTtA
high crimes
― Mordy, Friday, 14 September 2012 17:31 (eleven years ago) link
freaking out? it's more like pointing and laughing
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:37 (eleven years ago) link
Morbs-ese has no room for subtlety.
― the only problem, i find, is juggling my cock (Old Lunch), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:46 (eleven years ago) link
just because "freaking out" is the only reaction Morbs can handle...
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:48 (eleven years ago) link
man i forgot about High Crimes amidst all those other early 00s Ashley Judd thrillers.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:48 (eleven years ago) link
does a child killed by an american drone in pakistan care about how much money middle class people make?
― Mordy, Friday, 14 September 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
If that ain't the question of the month...
― cue "White Rabbit" (kenan), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:53 (eleven years ago) link
savage-mule Democrat 'humor'
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:56 (eleven years ago) link
"Is $100,000 middle income?" Stephanopoulos asked.
"No, middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 and less," Romney responded.
― Matt Armstrong, Friday, 14 September 2012 17:57 (eleven years ago) link
The homeless guy outside my office will be thrilled when I tell him the $5.24 he's collected this week qualifies him as "middle class".
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Friday, 14 September 2012 17:58 (eleven years ago) link
i don't know why the democratic party has (had) a reputation for being doves. from WW2 to Vietnam to Afghanistan, democrats are always are the forefront of the killing foreigners industry.
― Mordy, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:03 (eleven years ago) link
Americans love killing foreigners. Hell, Americans love killing full stop. We're a violent bunch.
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:04 (eleven years ago) link
Meantime:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-filmmaker-20120914,0,6397127.story
― Ned Raggett, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:05 (eleven years ago) link
xp WW1 too
― Brad C., Friday, 14 September 2012 18:06 (eleven years ago) link
People with power in questionably using power shockah.
― the only problem, i find, is juggling my cock (Old Lunch), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:11 (eleven years ago) link
xp I keep making the mistake of thinking HuffPo is a reliable news source.
― Get wolves (DL), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:12 (eleven years ago) link
i'll field that. though it's something of a "trade secret", the american democratic party is actually allied with liberal/progressive ideals and voters! these tend to pacifism and a distrust of the military-industrial complex. though democratic presidents have often been just as hawkish as their republican counterparts, this is much less true of the party as a whole.
― i know your nuts hurt! who's laughing? (contenderizer), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:18 (eleven years ago) link
ooh, a sarcasm detector, that's a real useful invention!
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
the american democratic party is actually allied with liberal/progressive ideals and voters
i'm gonna let morbz field this one
― Mordy, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
this is true when "allied with" means "smiles fatuously while paying lip service to"
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:27 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, if pacifist values don't seem to guide the democratic party's leadership, then i suppose it's fair to wonder whether they really mean anything to the party at all. want to compare this to the republicans' cynical alliance with socially conservative christians, but at least they go to bat for those values.
― i know your nuts hurt! who's laughing? (contenderizer), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:29 (eleven years ago) link
the ratio of members of congress w/ pacifist values is fairly proportional to the % of americans w/ pacifist values
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
clearly one needs to be a committed 'pacifist' to object to the u.s.'s openly imperial foreign policy post-1947.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:33 (eleven years ago) link
it's all relative, and in america 'let's kill lotsa foreigners...just in case' is m/l the moderate position. the iraq war happened cause the majority of america was alright w/ it happening.
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:35 (eleven years ago) link
participating in politics to fight violence is like participating in business to fight capitalism.
― Mordy, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:39 (eleven years ago) link
i don't think the bush admin would have spent eight months barraging the electorate with calumnies about hussein presenting an immediate danger to the u.s. if they were confident about 'the majority of america being alright w/it happening.'
funny how presidents won several major landslide elections by promising to keep us out of war (1916, 1940, 1964), seeing as how americans are such bloodthirsty warmongers and all.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:40 (eleven years ago) link
i was using "pacifism" (incorrectly) to describe a clutch of related liberal/progressive values that might be described as "antiwar in a general sense". was shooting for efficiency, but probably just confused the issue.
― i know your nuts hurt! who's laughing? (contenderizer), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
'lotsa people in the 20th century really didn't want to be drafted' doesn't have a lot to do w/ 'americans in 2012 are mostly cool w/ robots killing people in the middle east'
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
well, there's also the fairly substantial (if all too often silent) group who oppose this or that war on principle
― i know your nuts hurt! who's laughing? (contenderizer), Friday, 14 September 2012 18:50 (eleven years ago) link
i'm not so entirely cynical as some of y'all
ya the silent hippie majority never seems to make it to the voting booth either, it's weird
― iatee, Friday, 14 September 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
america is much more internationally violent than straight domestic polls would suggest
― goole, Friday, 14 September 2012 19:14 (eleven years ago) link
hearty lols @ conflating liberalism and pacifism
― real men have been preparing manly dishes for centuries (elmo argonaut), Friday, 14 September 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
If there's one thing I'm sure we all can agree with, it's that the American populace is heavily comprised of strawmen.
― the only problem, i find, is juggling my cock (Old Lunch), Friday, 14 September 2012 19:18 (eleven years ago) link
all it takes is a spark
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 September 2012 19:21 (eleven years ago) link
classic contenderizer
― flopson, Friday, 14 September 2012 19:24 (eleven years ago) link
anyone still scared?
― the late great, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 06:36 (eleven years ago) link
except for mitt's team, that is?
not especially. Willard is saying things that are pretty explicitly unpresidential.
― gesange der yuengling (crüt), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 07:49 (eleven years ago) link
this is worth like a thousand you-didn't-build-thats
― gesange der yuengling (crüt), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 07:52 (eleven years ago) link
http://i302.photobucket.com/albums/nn98/hiiyah777/wingsye5.jpg
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 07:58 (eleven years ago) link
if romney does win though... i mean, what does that say? about people?
― Trad., Arrrgh (stevie), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 08:20 (eleven years ago) link
Nothing! Absolutely nothing! People have plenty of black friends!
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 09:11 (eleven years ago) link
this week is like the "those people" / dean scream combo
― the late great, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 09:12 (eleven years ago) link
tbf ann romney's already done a 'you people'
― Trad., Arrrgh (stevie), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 09:32 (eleven years ago) link
That was about Latinos though. And apparently they're glad they know how to party.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 11:55 (eleven years ago) link
Assuming they've heard Romney's fundraiser speech and agree with its content? I'd argue that it means they're content with watching people who feel that they're entitled to precious commodities like food/shelter/healthcare die in the streets like dogs (except that we'll probably eventually have some human equivalent of animal control so we don't have to expose ourselves to that).
― Old Lunch, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 12:19 (eleven years ago) link
Also that they aren't aware of their own situation - if everyone who doesn't pay income tax AND the Democrats vote for Obama, it'll be a landslide.
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 12:24 (eleven years ago) link
election fraud & voter disenfranchisement via Voter ID & various other shit is still the Romney path to the White House and should still strike fear into your heart if you're pulling for the President. There is lots of devious shit in FL, OH, et al, for example this -
http://www.thenation.com/blog/169284/ohio-early-voting-cutbacks-disenfranchise-minority-voters
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:18 (eleven years ago) link
romney takedown by david brooks today in the nyt would have been great if i didn't want to jump out a window every time i read david brooks.
― scott seward, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:34 (eleven years ago) link
cuz i can hear his voice when i read his columns and it makes me shiver.
― scott seward, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:35 (eleven years ago) link
Brooks is Very Sad today.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:37 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, I think Brooks has finally gotten fed up with Mittens. I was surprised to see him unload on him like that.
― o. nate, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:37 (eleven years ago) link
This is key, I think (one of the reactions quoted by Sullivan):
My initial sense was that this video wouldn’t hurt Romney any more than “bitter clingers” hurt Obama. But “bitter clingers” came in April 2008, which gave Obama a lot more time to recover before Election Day.
Pretty much anything that happens in April is long gone by November. But even if Romney's video is only a story until the first debate, that's about a quarter of the time left until the election.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:45 (eleven years ago) link
Felt really good to delete a couple people from FB last night after they posted links to the video and said how great it was to have someone finally speak "honestly" and "tell the truth".
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:48 (eleven years ago) link
"This hurts me more than it does you, Mom." (Just kidding!)
― clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:49 (eleven years ago) link
lol! Actually one was an uncle, but I'm pretty sure he hid me a long time ago.
― heated debate over derpy hooves (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 13:52 (eleven years ago) link
Really feels (I'm sure to Romney too) like he's lost all control of the campaign narrative. Everything he says now, people are primed to go, "Jesus, did you hear that idiotic thing Romney said?" Of course, he does keep saying idiotic things, but people in presidential campaigns have gotten away with saying idiotic things before. He just can't catch a break -- I think in a lot of ways because he's not in any way a likable guy. Liberals don't like him, conservatives have never liked him, "independents" don't like him, the media as a whole doesn't like him. If he didn't have a terrible economy to run on, he'd be down by 8 to 10 points.
― something of an astrological coup (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:02 (eleven years ago) link
Somebody yesterday pointed out that the media dislikes him already, and that this doesn't affect that one way or the other. Disagree somewhat. There is that mushy part in the middle (CNN an example) that will gravitate to one of two stories: a getting-closer election (preferred choice) or, if not that, a train-wreck. Yesterday points them in the direction of a train-wreck. And with six weeks to go, if you're trying to catch up, having that mushy swath in the middle receptive to the getting-closer story can only help.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:12 (eleven years ago) link
i dont think 'the media' really has that much effect on peoples votes at this point
― max, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:13 (eleven years ago) link
Directly, no. But I do think the way you're covered has a more general effect.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
unless you count horrible tv commercials as "the media"
― ɥɯ ︵ (°□°) (mh), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
Blake Hounshell @blakehounshellBarely trying. MT @ByronYork: Romney has no public events today. Had one Monday, none Sat/Sun, one Friday, one Thursday
romney givin up
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
declare bankruptcy
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:23 (eleven years ago) link
I watched the clips again this morning and, wow, what a difference in confidence, diction, and tone. So this is what speaking to your base does.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:23 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah I think the general sense that "this guy's in a tailspin" gets across even to people who aren't paying attention to the outrage-of-the-day.
― something of an astrological coup (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:24 (eleven years ago) link
I don't think stuff like this particularly changes minds but voting is about enthusiasm, not just whether you identify red or blue. If Romney keeps morphing into Mr. Burns/Nixon with the media shitting on him daily it's definitely going to effect his ability to JAZZ people.
― da croupier, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:24 (eleven years ago) link
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, September 18, 2012 10:23 AM (16 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
romdawg has a lil experience pitching rooms full of rich guys
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:25 (eleven years ago) link
during the bush era conservative pals would say "fuck you" to anyone saying "so y' still like bush?" but a good number just plum forgot to vote in 2004
― da croupier, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:26 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe amazing is the wrong word.
i dont think 'the media' really has that much effect on peoples votes at this point --max
Don't believe this at all.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:29 (eleven years ago) link
very few people would be so openly flaky as to change party affiliation three months before an election, but they maaaay not buy the t-shirt
― da croupier, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:32 (eleven years ago) link
not very many undecided voters are watching cable news or reading editorial pages 6 weeks before an election
― max, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:34 (eleven years ago) link
Willard is saying things that are pretty explicitly unpresidential.
It's true that he's empty on "I'll drone-attack the Jonas Brothers" yuks.
The US media doesn't cover or affect shit that's worth shit.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:35 (eleven years ago) link
i honestly can't fathom someone being an "undecided voter" in the first place. I can see random shades of blue and red debating whether they're actually going to get off the couch, but not in regards to who they'd vote for.
― da croupier, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:37 (eleven years ago) link
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/d/d5/Swing_vote_08.jpg/220px-Swing_vote_08.jpg
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:39 (eleven years ago) link
yeah i kind of figure anybody who actually says "gee, i dunno" has to be really ignorant and vain. Somebody who says "convince me" with their arms folded.
― da croupier, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:40 (eleven years ago) link
I personally love the reaction from the frothing right-wing base: "yup, that's right, glad someone's finally saying it out loud." Just as I loved it when the base loved his pick of Ryan. Because everything that excites the base turns off the middle (and, I suppose vice versa, but this isn't the year for that).
Good luck with that strategy, GOP! Tell large swathes of the electorate that they're not worth your consideration, and irredeemably beneath contempt. See how well that plays in a democracy.
Caveat: yeah, as has been said repeatedly, most people who care about politics have long since decided how they're going to vote; there aren't a lot of persuadable people in any case. I'm the first to admit that I'm not persuadable; I have no understanding of the psychology of anyone who IS persuadable, so what the hell do I know about what will change minds?
― Ye Mad Puffin, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:43 (eleven years ago) link
Last I read, Obama still ahead in several swing states, undecideds down to 2 percent. Aside from Obama's "clingers" in April vs. Romney's "47 percent" in mid-Sept., Obama generalized/snarked in passing, Romney's percentage is implicitly a social map, the perfect opening for refutation (also a vision, rallying some of the troops). Also of course this is another situation where "the media" has to follow viral Netclipz, see how far they go. Also see some conservative sites getting sick of Fox putting the spin 'n' shine on Romney gaffes, with paid contributors/analysts who are also on the Romney payroll.
― dow, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:46 (eleven years ago) link
Again, I don't think anyone saying that the tone of media coverage over the last six weeks might matter--especially to someone playing catch-up--is suggesting that voters will actually change their minds. It's more the enthusiasm level mentioned above. If you're a Republican who wants Obama out, but doesn't like Romney at all and sees his campaign getting hammered every day, that can't help.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
and at this point recognizing romneyshambles doesn't require watching cable news or reading opinion pages -- it's the lead story on aol.com
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 14:53 (eleven years ago) link
might matter re actually going to the polls, standing in line in November, considering how many Republicans/Reagan Democrates I know who are also working stiffs and/or old.
― dow, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:21 (eleven years ago) link
"Democrates" a typo, not snark
― dow, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:22 (eleven years ago) link
Even Jonah can barely find a silver lining here.
― a shark with a rippling six pack (Phil D.), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:35 (eleven years ago) link
― max, Tuesday, September 18, 2012 10:34 AM (49 minutes ago)
maybe not but what about reading newspaper headlines while at the coffee shop or talking to people who are following the race? there's kind of a general noise level about romney not being in control of his campaign and these gaffes are just stocking obama's pantry for the debates. romney is clearly not unflappable in public and I'm wondering what sort of verbal wilding he's going to engage in when face to face with his opponent.
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:46 (eleven years ago) link
kind of hoping Romney bursts into tears at the debate
― wtf where's my chapbook (DJP), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:47 (eleven years ago) link
kind of hoping Romney bursts into tears flames at the debate
― a shark with a rippling six pack (Phil D.), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:48 (eleven years ago) link
more likely: slight but visible leakage of sawdust/oatmeal (uncooked)
― dow, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:51 (eleven years ago) link
kind of hoping Romney bursts into tears flames america the beautiful at the debate
― let's get the banned back together (schlump), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:52 (eleven years ago) link
Romney flames / Ryan tears vs Romney tears / Ryan flames, hmm that is a poser.
(probably the latter, as we'll never hear of Romney again, but Ryan will be back as an "intellectual" / actual pres. candidate)
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:54 (eleven years ago) link
kind of hoping Romney bursts into tears flames america the beautiful the dance of joy at the debate
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:54 (eleven years ago) link
Has the debate schedule been set?
― real men have been preparing manly dishes for centuries (elmo argonaut), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:55 (eleven years ago) link
Yup
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2012-presidential-debate-schedule/
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:56 (eleven years ago) link
Hahaha! The final presidential debate is in Boca Raton!
"Governor Romney, a few months ago you were talking to a few folks around here at a fundraiser..."
i'm still scared! i just hate mitt so much.
― the best Laid jams (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:57 (eleven years ago) link
I just hope Obama brings up Bain bailouts whenever Romney brings up gov't entitlements.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 15:57 (eleven years ago) link
uh Boca Raton is the Democratic heart of Palm Beach County and one of the places whose residents voted mistakenly for Pat Buchanan in '00.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:01 (eleven years ago) link
That makes it even better.
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:01 (eleven years ago) link
lol wondering what voters Romney hopes to woo in Boca Raton.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:03 (eleven years ago) link
soon-to-be baptized Jews
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:05 (eleven years ago) link
Netanyahu-loving ones.
He's got Bush's buddy, Bob Schieffer moderating that last debate.
As moderator, Schieffer will be responsible for formulating the debate questions and following up after the candidates respond. However, Schieffer has described in the past his "golfing friendship" with President George W. Bush "during the 1990s"
http://mediamatters.org/research/2004/10/12/schieffers-statements-raise-questions-about-obj/132062
― curmudgeon, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
kind of hoping Romney bursts into tears flames america the beautiful the dance of joy as a pas de deux with rafalca at the debate.
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:13 (eleven years ago) link
My own hope is that Romney suddenly goes Gangnam Style in the middle of the first debate. (Even though I didn't know what that meant until SNL.)
― clemenza, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:29 (eleven years ago) link
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, September 18, 2012 3:23 PM (2 hours ago)
totally, it's quite striking
also the identification of 'the 47%' with obama voters when LOADS of those people are republicans
― A.R.R.Y. Kane (nakhchivan), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:32 (eleven years ago) link
I can totally see Romney as the sort who signs up months in advance to sing "The Star Spangled Banner" at baseball's opening day, spends all those weeks practicing, and still flubs the words.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:36 (eleven years ago) link
I'm wondering what sort of verbal wilding (Romney)'s going to engage in when face to face with his opponent.
Romney's debate prep team will stuff him like a thanksgiving turkey, but instead of delicious savory goodies, he'll be stuffed full of canned responses to stock questions. This approach works well enough about 98% of the time. Where it gets interesting is when a candidate becomes confused about which canned answer fits the current question, gets a frozen look for about three seconds and then starts to wing it, like Rick Perry.
However, I suspect that Romney won't put his foot into the shit in any obvious way. He'll have pat answers to all the most embarassing questions he's likely to be asked. It mostly comes down to whether or not someone gets really creative in forming the questions and gets him off-script.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:43 (eleven years ago) link
I'd just like it if the candidates each had to read aloud the Constitution. Romney's brain would fry in the first sentence when he got to "promote the general welfare".
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:45 (eleven years ago) link
is Obama considered a good debater? It was hard to tell with that grimacing, snickering somnambulist creeping around last time.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:45 (eleven years ago) link
He was less on his game in the primaries, but he held up pretty well against McCain.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
http://0.tqn.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/D/O/2/mctongue-pic.jpg
― Mr. Que, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:47 (eleven years ago) link
That's my point! Whatever he held with McCain it wasn't a debate.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:48 (eleven years ago) link
Obama has a strong tendency to get professorial, which he needs to resist.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
i remember him seemingly progressively sleepier through each of the last debates - like veering into a more solemn mode, looking downwards, &c. i figure he'll be okay at enumerating his triumphs & all, though, i don't think debates are actually like to be all that snappy or high-risk in this context.
― let's get the banned back together (schlump), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
it doesn't matter if he's a "good" debater or not, it's all about his opponent, who is a hideous boob.
― Mr. Que, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:50 (eleven years ago) link
Well, yeah, none of these are debates. You could put two staffers behind podiums who have iPads loaded with sound clips and they just play the appropriate one at the appropriate time for how much debating actually goes.
However, I do actually like watching these things, and am curious how much of a public event they'll be around here. For the last two cycles at least, people filled bars & theaters to watch and yell at the screen.
I may or may not have been yelling at the screen whilst typing on here with everybody whilst it happened.
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:52 (eleven years ago) link
kind of hoping Romney bursts into tears flames america the beautiful the dance of joy as a pas de deux with rafalca heaven, kissing the cotton clouds at the debate.
― something of an astrological coup (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:57 (eleven years ago) link
I'm curious though, almost everything that Romney's being doing recently seems like it should get Obama angry. Isn't there a portion of Obama's appeal that isn't compatible with him being "My esteemed opponent, who I believe has good in his heart.." about someone who's been blatantly lying and poor-baiting? Even more so if Charles Pierce is right and the Romney campaign is going to go straight evil over the next seven weeks.
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 16:58 (eleven years ago) link
My sense atm is that Romney won't go straight evil until after he sees the overnight polling after the first 'debate'. It isn't his preferred style. Rove would have been all Tyson-biting-Spinks'-ear-off by three days after the R convention, when he saw the numbers.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:09 (eleven years ago) link
he can go straight evil in his ads, but i don't see him pulling off anything beyond petulant in a debate
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:14 (eleven years ago) link
Holyfield
― One Way Ticket on the 1277 Express (Bill Magill), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:16 (eleven years ago) link
correction accepted
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:17 (eleven years ago) link
Tyson bit off Holyfield's ear, fwiw.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:17 (eleven years ago) link
lol too late
There are some ads, not approved by Romney of course, poised to Swiftboat Osama vs. Obama (although described as starting with headline OSAMA DEAD, followed by an added question mark, which may be going "a bit far,some commentators agree")(predicted subhed)
― dow, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:43 (eleven years ago) link
Net ads, mostly.
romney is clearly not unflappable in public and I'm wondering what sort of verbal wilding he's going to engage in when face to face with his opponent.
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Tuesday, September 18, 2012 11:46 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
ya curious to see what a desperate mitt dawg will do in the debates
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 17:47 (eleven years ago) link
i can't really imagine it getting any wilder than him reverting to his faux-laugh/fixed grin/intense stare, tbh, he more often speaks irrelevantly than he does incoherently
― let's get the banned back together (schlump), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:04 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.csmonitor.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/media/content/2012/0117-mitt-romney-sc-debate/11470148-1-eng-US/0117-mitt-romney-SC-debate_full_600.jpg
http://i45.tinypic.com/2pywabn.jpg
― let's get the banned back together (schlump), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:05 (eleven years ago) link
I don't expect any major gaffes on either side in the debate. Most likely they'll be kind of boring.
― o. nate, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:06 (eleven years ago) link
I said way back in primary season that the GOP should pick Perry, that they were shying away from him because he was too much of a wild card, but he was the wild card with a 20% chance of winning whereas Romney has always been the guy with virtually 0% chance of winning.
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:06 (eleven years ago) link
feel like mitts gonna go on the offensive
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:07 (eleven years ago) link
when romneys attack, season premiere 10/12 9pm all the channels
rick perry is not a wild card, hes a goober
not ready 4 prime time, never gonna be
Dubya was a goober too!
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:13 (eleven years ago) link
the common line I heard about Rick Perry before he ran in the primary was that ppl in Texas said he made GWB look like Einstein
― wtf where's my chapbook (DJP), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:14 (eleven years ago) link
although tbf Perry is kind of a poor man's Dubya, which is, really, man how bad can it get
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:14 (eleven years ago) link
xp lol
its true bush was a goober, but he had waay more on the ball than perry
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:14 (eleven years ago) link
Just shows how sad the GOP field was, because Mitt has never truly been "ready for prime time" either, but they went with him because at least he resembles a cardboard cutout of a standard republican presidential candidate
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:16 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, I think he won't freak, he'll turn on the locked society smile and break the switch off
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:16 (eleven years ago) link
Rick Perry did not have ivy league credentials and thus was not in the same league with Dubya, who was a full member of Skull n' Bones.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:19 (eleven years ago) link
W too they really groomed him for a long time and he had the A team behind him everything was well planned and thought out
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
Thing I'm most curious about is vp debate. No idea how this one will play out, much like we didn't know how the last one would, only this seems way different weirdness than last time's
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
rick just kinda jumped in there like hay whats up *shoots finger guns*
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:21 (eleven years ago) link
VP debate is going to be totally tepid unless Ryan challenges Biden to a pushup contest or something (btw anyone following the recent Ryan 6-8% bodyfat lie hilariousness? He's great!)
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:21 (eleven years ago) link
ha yes at 6% body fat yr body starts to consume itself in a desperate bid to stay alive
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
i woulda thought the vp debate is gonna be the republicans' best bet?, like given that the appeal of ryan is like STRAIGHT TALKIN NO SPENDIN ATTITUDE he just has to appear to chastise biden on account of spending &c. biden can be all "now hold on a second, jackrabbit", though, so who knows how it ends up, i guess w/biden winning vice-presidential reelection as the grandparent we love to hate.
― let's get the banned back together (schlump), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
http://taxfoundation.org:81/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/UserFiles/Image/Fiscal%20Facts/20100524-229-nonpayers-mapM.jpg
Perry is merely the product of a base that has learned nothing and will double down on demonstrably wrong-headedness every chance they get. This is representative of the rump of the existing Republican Party and it is telling that Romney can slag off non-payers of tax when the bastions of his numbers are basically the top ten States in not paying income tax.
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:25 (eleven years ago) link
vp debate
ryan will destroy biden with mountains of facts that later turn out to be total fabrications
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:26 (eleven years ago) link
at the beginning when ryan goes to shake his hand biden should put him in an affectionate headlock and give him a lil noogie just to set the tone
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:27 (eleven years ago) link
Wasn't Bruce Lee rumored to only have like 3% bodyfat at one point? Or am I off by a factor of 5 or so
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
heres all yr ryan body fat debunking infos http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/09/paul_ryan_claims_he_has_6_to_8_percent_body_fat_.html
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:29 (eleven years ago) link
yeah folks are all over the fact that this "47%" is made up of A LOT of Republicans.
the flip side of that is that the 53% is made up of A LOT of Dems. 52% of ppl making over 200k supported Obama in '08. nearly half of of those earning 50k - 200k did, too. i realize this isn't 2008, but goddam how dumb can these Erik Erickson 53% chumps be??
― it's smdh time in America (will), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:29 (eleven years ago) link
Next up:
11th - TN12th - NC13th - UT14th - AZ15th - KY
I think Obama won NC in '08, but every single other one of those States (except Florida? I don't remember) voted solidly for McCain/GOP.
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:29 (eleven years ago) link
Considering that nerve tissue requires fat to operate, 3% would probably lead to brain damage.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
― it's smdh time in America (will), Tuesday, September 18, 2012 2:29 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
This (the first point) is being kind of overstated though -- Obama handily carries the vote of the non-income-tax-paying poor in a lot of those red states.
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
Obama handily carries the vote of the non-income-tax-paying poor in a lot of those red states.
Can you verify this?
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
The best push-back I've seen was some reader on Sullivan who basically said that Romney didn't mean he wouldn't govern in the name of all Americans but that his election strategy wasn't going to target this 47%. Which still begs the question, why not?
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:34 (eleven years ago) link
Non-unionized earners with only high school degrees are more likely to vote republican these days, and the south is a hotbed of non-union, god-fearing, low wage earners.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:36 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/18/1133341/-47-many-repubs-believe-this-stuff
Obama won 73% of the <$15K vote, 60% of the $15-30K vote etc.
David Corn also posted this "update" to his Atlantic piece:
Update: My colleague Derek Thompson picks up the baton from me and digs deeper into the demographics of the so-called 47 percent. One important note he makes is that it's often the lowest-income people in these red states who are most likely to vote Democratic -- it's just that the rest of the population is conservative enough to carry the states into the Republican column.
In 2008, Obama lost Georgia by 5 percentage points but he won 70% of voters who earned less than $30,000 -- which is precisely the demo most likely to owe no federal income tax. Obama lost Mississippi by 14 percentage points, but picked up 66% of voters who earned less than $30,000. As a general rule, Republicans win among richer voters -- both in the red states and the blue.
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
Of course, Romney's point remains completely fatuous
Huzzah:
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/watch-full-secret-video-private-romney-fundraiser
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:39 (eleven years ago) link
http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/06/18/the-party-of-the-american-working-man-and-woman/
― iatee, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:41 (eleven years ago) link
At anything less than 10 percent body fat, says Martin Rooney, a well-known trainer who works with NFL and MMA athletes, “a man with his shirt off is lean and shredded. Veins everywhere and really cut up. This is the model and bodybuilder look. So if he is saying he is 6 percent, he is shredded with a six-pack and should have no reason not to do photo shoots everywhere.”
Bodybuilder language is funny to me.
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:41 (eleven years ago) link
i'm mainly talking about the olds and the red-staters making 55k/yr who - thanks to EITC, mortgage deductions, etc - don't pay any federal income taxes. i don't have numbers on this, but these two demos describe sooo many ppl around here (MS, TN)
― it's smdh time in America (will), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
well to get nerdy, nobody making 55k is getting EITC
― goole, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:43 (eleven years ago) link
oops yeah, sub that with child tax credit
― it's smdh time in America (will), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:46 (eleven years ago) link
Garance Franke-Ruta @thegaranceRomney on MoJo full video: "This president speaks loudly and carries a tiny stick."
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:48 (eleven years ago) link
Wouldn't be surprised if most of the video was just dick jokes.
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:49 (eleven years ago) link
Also, the bodyfat and physical feats bragging is is the utmost reinforcing how douchey the guy is; when you feel the need the start involving all the dudebro gym-douche bragging, the highest estimation you could ever possibly pray to reach is "disreputable schmuck".
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:49 (eleven years ago) link
Man, caterers are going to get shaken down at these events from now on.
― canonical casual cordouroy (Eazy), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:51 (eleven years ago) link
Eh, gym bros ALWAYS estimate their BF way lower than it actually is. I don't think of that as a lie (though obviously douchey) - Ryan has probably always been told by his workout buddies/etc. that he's @ 6% brah. Athletes do it to - NFL players claiming 3% BF etc. (Dez Bryant did that), which is just absurdly unrealistic given the demands of their sport.
― Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:51 (eleven years ago) link
Whereas Charlie Christ is among the 47%.
― canonical casual cordouroy (Eazy), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
I mean Chris Christie. Easy joke.
― canonical casual cordouroy (Eazy), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:53 (eleven years ago) link
Oh come on in the context of all of his other physical prowess nonsense I'm not giving dude the benefit of the doubt on any of this.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:53 (eleven years ago) link
did i get my memes messed up or did romney just say that americans are 47% body fat
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:54 (eleven years ago) link
plz plz an interviewer needs to pull some calipers and offer to measure ryans %
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:55 (eleven years ago) link
wheel out a dunk tank, "hop in"!
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:58 (eleven years ago) link
"if he floats..."
― look at this quarterstaff (Hurting 2), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:58 (eleven years ago) link
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 18:59 (eleven years ago) link
LOL, Crist is among the 10 percent. Easy mistake.
― Ham Lushbaugh (Eric H.), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 19:00 (eleven years ago) link
Chris Christie is among the 47 % body fatters.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 19:01 (eleven years ago) link
Gym bro annoyance just seems like an additional douchebaggery he adds onto everything else.
I mean, I'm a fat drunk, I take this shit personally.
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 19:10 (eleven years ago) link
ryan is cut and shredded like a good slaw
― hail dayton (brownie), Tuesday, 18 September 2012 19:24 (eleven years ago) link
http://wearethe47percent.tumblr.com/
― carne asada, Tuesday, 18 September 2012 19:25 (eleven years ago) link
kinda feel bad for republicans on the romney campaign who have to defend him at this point, they sound like malfunctioning robots trying to stay on message
obama.. class warfare... dividing our country
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 00:31 (eleven years ago) link
It's that dalek like monomania at work.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 00:47 (eleven years ago) link
has this been posted yet? http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/09/if_mitt_romney_loses_republican_leaders_rush_to_offer_post_mortems_on_the_campaign_indicates_that_the_gop_will_have_a_big_debate_about_its_future_.html
― Mordy, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 01:02 (eleven years ago) link
i took that are you smarter than john dickerson quiz this week and surprise i was
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 04:02 (eleven years ago) link
Asked what he thought of Romney's remarks, Ryan told the Nevada station: "He was obviously inarticulate in making this point." Ryan went on to say the point the Republicans are making is that, under the Obama economy, government dependency is up and economic stagnation is up.
Asked if he thought Romney regrets the remarks, Ryan says he thinks Romney would have said it differently, adding, "that's for sure."
― Mordy, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 04:12 (eleven years ago) link
going rogue already
― the physical impossibility of sb in the mind of someone fping (silby), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 04:30 (eleven years ago) link
Politicians used to pull out "I was misquoted" whenever this sort of thing happened. Now, with actual video of them saying shit, they have to resort to, "I may have said X, but I meant to say Y, so when you think about it, it's like I never said X. So let's talk about Y."
― Aimless, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
http://reason.com/assets/mc/_ATTIC/mattwelch/ScrewBall.gif
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 15:16 (eleven years ago) link
cellphones, guys
― Mordy, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:12 (eleven years ago) link
In one of the forecasts, I ran the numbers based solely on polls that do include cellphones in their samples. The vast majority of these polls also use live interviewers, since federal law prohibits automated calls to cellphones under most circumstances. (Note, however, that one or two mostly automated polling firms, like SurveyUSA, use a separate sample based on live interviewers to reach cellphone-only voters; these were included in the model run.)In this universe, Mr. Obama seems poised for victory. The model forecasts him for a 4.1 percentage points win in the national popular vote. That compares with 2.9 percentage points in the regular FiveThirtyEight forecast, which includes polls both with and without cellphones.Mr. Obama’s advantage is also clearer in the swing states. The cellphone-inclusive polls give him an 80 percent chance to win Virginia, a 79 percent chance in Ohio, and a 68 percent chance to win Florida, all considerably higher than in the official FiveThirtyEight forecast.Overall, this version of the model gives Mr. Obama an 83 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, a full 10 percentage points higher than the 73 percent chance that the official FiveThirtyEight forecast gave him as of Monday night. So the methodological differences are showing up in a big way this year.
In this universe, Mr. Obama seems poised for victory. The model forecasts him for a 4.1 percentage points win in the national popular vote. That compares with 2.9 percentage points in the regular FiveThirtyEight forecast, which includes polls both with and without cellphones.
Mr. Obama’s advantage is also clearer in the swing states. The cellphone-inclusive polls give him an 80 percent chance to win Virginia, a 79 percent chance in Ohio, and a 68 percent chance to win Florida, all considerably higher than in the official FiveThirtyEight forecast.
Overall, this version of the model gives Mr. Obama an 83 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, a full 10 percentage points higher than the 73 percent chance that the official FiveThirtyEight forecast gave him as of Monday night. So the methodological differences are showing up in a big way this year.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:13 (eleven years ago) link
hopefully voter complacency will not ruin things for obama
maybe the lib vote will turn out to see how big of a landslide we can accomplish
― the late great, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:15 (eleven years ago) link
i can totally see a lot of people checking out though like, oh yeah, romney has no chance, i'm not going to ask my boss for time off because he's fucked anyway
― the late great, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:16 (eleven years ago) link
thing is that sort of thinking affects both sides
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:18 (eleven years ago) link
like '08 i feel like a ton of rightwingers are less excited by romney and more hating on obama. i don't think hate drives people to the voting booth, they need a candidate they love too. cf kerry vs bush in '04.
― omar little, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:22 (eleven years ago) link
bush was the most hated motherfucker on the planet and the opposition was 2x as loud as it is to obama and he still won pretty easily.
kerry was kind of lame though, he had a similar sad sack sort of thing going on as mittins too
― the late great, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:29 (eleven years ago) link
positive motivating factors outweigh negatives when it comes to voter turnout, this has been proven time and again
the opposition was 2x as loud as it is to obama
I dunno about this
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
I believe the phrase you are looking for is "tired old satrap" (c)AlfredLordSotosyn
yeah i'm saying. i feel like mitt is an uncanny valley candidate, like from a distance in the abstract of the primaries people are thinking, "well he sure looks the part and sounds about right" but then in close-up he's not appealing.
― omar little, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
basically anyone who nominates a candidate from massachusetts just pack yr bags it over
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:32 (eleven years ago) link
but... President Scott Brown!
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:33 (eleven years ago) link
But JFK well then again...
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:33 (eleven years ago) link
Autre temps, autre moeurs
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:47 (eleven years ago) link
Willard Romney is the Eighties Meryl Streep of the American presidency.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
Dingos ate his campaign.
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Wednesday, 19 September 2012 22:51 (eleven years ago) link
Veep selection: Sophie's Choice.
― nickn, Wednesday, 19 September 2012 23:42 (eleven years ago) link
he still won pretty easily.
― omar little, Wednesday, September 19, 2012 6:22 PM Bookmark
It's funny how these things have solidified because, and maybe I was just super hopeful, it seemed winnable at the time, even with Dems basically acknowledging they had a lame candidate, it still came down to an election-night nail-biter, right? It seemed possible, waking up on Election Day, that Bush would be a one-term president. The next day was probably the most bummed I ever got through the entirety of the Bush administration. But that itself might be a sort of distorted memory, I don't actually recall that day or how it went or whether I was on the schedule to work or anything really.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:02 (eleven years ago) link
Lest we forget, Romney won the primaries because no matter how frantically the loony right grasped for an alternative, the alternative always turned out to be Michele Bachman or Herman Cain or Newt Gringrich or Rick Perry, all of whom would be mincemeat by now. The candidates with a heavier throw weight all sat this one out rather than face an incumbent.
― Aimless, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:07 (eleven years ago) link
I think it's impossible to HAVE a "heavier throw weight" within the Rep. party now.
― timellison, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:08 (eleven years ago) link
It's funny how these things have solidified because, and maybe I was just super hopeful, it seemed winnable at the time, even with Dems basically acknowledging they had a lame candidate, it still came down to an election-night nail-biter, right? It seemed possible, waking up on Election Day, that Bush would be a one-term president
oh I don't know. The polls the last few weeks showed Bush with a small but decided lead. Plus, he had (a) incumbency (b) I'M A WARTIME PRESIDENT on his side.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:10 (eleven years ago) link
A friend who was and remains a DNC hack said he knew the Dems lost the election after John Kerry's acceptance speech ("I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty!").
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:11 (eleven years ago) link
tim, are you forgetting gov christie?
― Aimless, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:12 (eleven years ago) link
― timellison, Wednesday, September 19, 2012 8:08 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
http://www.theblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/AP689319454044.jpg
could def not throw
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:12 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe I'm a Dem hack, too, but I never thought Dukakis and Gore and Kerry were "lame candidates." Oh well.
― timellison, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:14 (eleven years ago) link
polls had bush ahead but barely w/ margin narrowing. exit polls had kerry winning, and winning pretty easily tbh, carring virginia etc. i can remember going to go bar anticipating partying, then virginia went bush and i thought 'well, that's something but what were the odds of a dem carrying virginia anyway' and i told ppl not to panic, kerry had it in the bag. then florida went bush and i kinda knew the jig was up and just sat there and drank heavily waiting for ohio to fall. in 2008 by contrast i never panicked but at the same time i assumed nothing until ohio went obama and the networks called the election. this year i haven't panicked but i've also assumed nothing. i am at the point where if someone were to tell me today that romney was gonna win in six weeks i would be surprised.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:14 (eleven years ago) link
My records show that I got off work, briefly attended an "election party" which I don't recall at all, and the next day I was feeling ill. It would appear I went to the bank and the thrift store, bought some candy, and was unsuccessful in attempting to pick up some photos, or something. And then there was a Guided By Voices show. It was, based on the available evidence, a fairly listless 24-hour period.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:18 (eleven years ago) link
I mean, so freaking what if they weren't cool enough.
― timellison, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:18 (eleven years ago) link
i remember election 00 and election 08 but not 04
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:19 (eleven years ago) link
i was not a kerry fan - dean supporter initially (still think his role in building the present day dem party is underrated), edwards voter (sigh) by the time of the ga primary. i did come to actually like kerry enough by the time of the actual election though. still think it was ultimately a good thing for the democratic party (albeit not the country) that kerry lost in 04. would go dukakis>gore>kerry. gary hart over the lot.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:20 (eleven years ago) link
Kerry as prez nominee was a neoliberal administrator of a war economy, very far from his liberal roots in the late eighties. He wasn't Dean but I didn't dislike him as I did the vacuous Edwards.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:21 (eleven years ago) link
i can remember the bush campaign totally bought those exit polls also, by sundown there were leaks from the campaign about how rove had blown it etc a la pick yr avg recent politico story.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:22 (eleven years ago) link
the fuck did i do on election nite 04
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:22 (eleven years ago) link
I expect the 'debates' are just not going to give Mitt much of a push in the polls, bcz unless a whole new hot issue comes up, mitt has nothing new to say and no new way to say it. and if a hot new issue does come up, like an Israeli strike against Iran, it will probably work in favor of the sitting president. unless, of course, it is another Lehman-type failure and crash.
Mitt has nothing left in his quiver. And 'he leads in no polls'.
― Aimless, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:22 (eleven years ago) link
maybe i just stayed home
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:23 (eleven years ago) link
There was an ILX thread, right? I wasn't reading the boards then and I can't find it now.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:25 (eleven years ago) link
I was drinking from 2 p.m. onwards on Election Day 2004, in full anticipation of a Bush win. The worst part: the next day, at the Memphis airport for a convention, every douche at a bar cheering Kerry's concession.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:25 (eleven years ago) link
yah I joined ILX in January 2005 and skimmed the political threads from two months earlier and was frankly surprised at the number of people all like I'M MOVING TO CANADIA THAT'S IT
i remember election night 04 because i got out the vote in milwaukee in a dismally poorly organized effort (08 put it to shame) and drove back to chicago with friends listening to election coverage and went to sleep really late and woke up, turned on the news, cried, went to class.
― horseshoe, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:26 (eleven years ago) link
edwards always felt like a televangelist to me. gore was a colossal fuckup imo, he ran a terrible campaign. i felt like he had it in the bag early on but he just played right into bush's hands. kerry is a decent guy who never had a real chance imo, i realize the polls were close-ish but still...he was running less as an answer to the country's problems and more of "hey at least i'm not bush."
― omar little, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:26 (eleven years ago) link
Two different "prediction" threads:
Predict the electoral vote of the US Presidential ElectionPredict the electoral vote of the US Presidential Election
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:26 (eleven years ago) link
er...hangon
Predict the results of the 2004 US Presidential Election
Romney's "Hey at least I'm like Bush!"
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:27 (eleven years ago) link
Kerry
― gabbneb (gabbneb), Friday, March 12, 200
i feel like romney is a combination campaign-wise of both gore's errors and kerry's "other guy" routine.
― omar little, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:27 (eleven years ago) link
Today I have my first significant doubt that Bush will win.
I will admit that Gabbneb's unrelenting ground campaign--endles, spintastic poll posting--has given me pause, but it has never been overly convincing.
It's because Bush is allegedly going after the Third Rail of politics tonight: Social Security. I am shocked he has the audacity to do this at the convention.
Even though Social Security (and more importantly, Medicare) is in dire need of reform, Kerryco has the brains to avoid discussing it in a forum such as this. Bush is set to open up a huge can of worms, and the Kerry campaign is going to be given a time-tested issue to hammer away with in the next two months. I am shocked Bush is going to hand over an issue that Kerry will be able to demogogue so easily with seniors, given the ramifications in states like Florida.
― don carville weiner, Thursday, September 2, 2004
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:28 (eleven years ago) link
then every talk i went to at school that year was about the 04 liberal depression fuck red states shit, which is kind of hard to take coming from English professors.
― horseshoe, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:30 (eleven years ago) link
i remember election night 04 because i got out the vote in milwaukee in a dismally poorly organized effort (08 put it to shame) and drove back to chicagoThat's funny, I canvassed in Milwaukee from Chicago that day too. I rode the bus there and back, and as I recall there was no radio or updates on the way back, by the time I arrived it looked to be over.
― boxall, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:34 (eleven years ago) link
gore campaign was hobbled by an uncharismatic candidate running in the shadow of a super charismatic president (not that this has to be a problem - see poppy bush - but gore made it one somehow anyway, despite the 98 midterms the dems somehow never figured how that the lewinsky affair had actually helped them) w/ bob shrum and donna brazile as yr strategists. and he still won the popular vote and florida.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:35 (eleven years ago) link
Even more than 2000 this was the year when RED VERSUS BLUE got currency and I hated it.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:36 (eleven years ago) link
the thing that sticks out in my mind about '04 is the democrats I knew irl being like "maybe we shouldn't bring up things like gay marriage anymore"
― Matt Armstrong, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:36 (eleven years ago) link
I can't blame Gore for what happened in '00, the media vendetta against him that year was unstoppable
― Matt Armstrong, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:38 (eleven years ago) link
haha balls: I'm reading Peter Baker's gabbneb-esque The Breach on the Clinton impeachment and Dem incompetence on capitalizing on public support for throwing out the GOP bums by limiting it to the '98 race (which nevertheless defied 60 years of history) is depressing.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:38 (eleven years ago) link
I can't blame Gore for what happened in '00,
haha yes you can -- even with the vendetta
ok maybe I can lol
― Matt Armstrong, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:40 (eleven years ago) link
still of all the politicians they could have branded as a liar, they chose Gore in 2000 smh
― Matt Armstrong, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:41 (eleven years ago) link
I watched the '04 returns in a bar, then the next night went and saw I Heart Huckabees and thought it nailed Red State vs. Blue State. Haven't seen it since, so I can't remember why.
― canonical casual cordouroy (Eazy), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:41 (eleven years ago) link
that movie is hilarious
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:41 (eleven years ago) link
would've made Lily Tomlin my nominee
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:44 (eleven years ago) link
WORD
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 00:45 (eleven years ago) link
haha yes you can
I'm not sure that you can. Media landscape feels different to me now.
― timellison, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:09 (eleven years ago) link
In 04 I just remember feeling destroyed the next day
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:26 (eleven years ago) link
But maybe in a way it was a good thing. Politics will never, ever fuck me up like that again. No longer a virgin.
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:28 (eleven years ago) link
I felt destroyed for probably the next two months. I'm normally pessimistic but I had built up some hope that Kerry could win. xp
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:29 (eleven years ago) link
For real
It was like living a nightmare
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:31 (eleven years ago) link
yeah it was the worst
― horseshoe, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:34 (eleven years ago) link
I recently found the playlist of angry songs I played on my college radio show the night after the '04 results, with 'thefacebook.com' scrawled at the top. All told, a sadly apropos document of where things went severely wrong in the mid-2000s.
― Old Lunch, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:38 (eleven years ago) link
I always remember a paid Dukakis spot, must have been a whole half-hour bio and campaign piece, running on, I think, one of the main networks onelection night '88. I just remember that thing running while the election was already a foregone conclusion and how sad it was.
― timellison, Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:39 (eleven years ago) link
Dukakis definitely the worst Dem candidate of my lifetime.
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 01:48 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Vr842TpBWE
― barthes simpson, Thursday, 20 September 2012 02:24 (eleven years ago) link
super lulz
― Mordy, Thursday, 20 September 2012 02:25 (eleven years ago) link
Wow.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 20 September 2012 02:26 (eleven years ago) link
duuude
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 02:38 (eleven years ago) link
he was a boy?
― a regina spektor is haunting europe (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 02:39 (eleven years ago) link
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/everybodys-president.html
Don't know if anybody else watched this, but I thought Obama was really clunky, especially early on--he's been using the line about his daughters and men with guns for two years. There was something he said at one point that made me laugh, but I can't remember what it was. (The clip is edited down quite a bit.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 20 September 2012 02:44 (eleven years ago) link
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/blow-i-know-why-the-caged-bird-shrieks/?hp
wow, charles blow letting loose
― j., Thursday, 20 September 2012 04:01 (eleven years ago) link
"Mitt Romney keeps showing America who he is. When will we start to believe him?"
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 20 September 2012 04:06 (eleven years ago) link
― timellison, Wednesday, September 19, 2012 9:39 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
http://www.hulu.com/watch/284748
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 04:14 (eleven years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/xfd3D.gif
― canonical casual cordouroy (Eazy), Thursday, 20 September 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
o yeah
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
did he really tan up for univision
― goole, Thursday, 20 September 2012 18:49 (eleven years ago) link
its was just bad tv makeup
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
^^^this. sort of don't understand how he ever got the nom tbh.
I always hated Kerry. Anyone who voted for the Iraq war is imho either a cynical sycophant or a moron, it was a total dealbreaker for me. While I desperately wanted Dubya to lose, I had few illusions about Kerry's prospects, and was still bummed when he lost. Of course, the next 4 years were an unmitigated disaster for our country, but the whole decade was such a colossal tragedy.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 20 September 2012 18:56 (eleven years ago) link
As I recall, the non-dukakis candidates were a damned skimpy meal. my memory says things like paul tsongas and that illinois guy with the bow-ties. I could google it, but can't be arsed.
― Aimless, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:05 (eleven years ago) link
Nobody wanted the black guy to get the nom
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
Tsongas was '92, Paul Simon in '88 – and Hart, Biden (lol), a few.
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
michael's brother jesse, you mean
― Aimless, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
hart was good but then he had a lil problem
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:09 (eleven years ago) link
I can't blame Gore for what happened in '00
Gore gets the paramount blame for "losing" the election in every way possible.
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:11 (eleven years ago) link
i blame Justice Kennedy
― Mr. Que, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:11 (eleven years ago) link
I think I can think of someone else who deserves some blame O:) xp
― Mordy, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:12 (eleven years ago) link
i blame morbs
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:14 (eleven years ago) link
i blame jeffrey toobin
― Mr. Que, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:14 (eleven years ago) link
i blame blame itself
― barthes simpson, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
i blame it on the a-ah-ah-a-ah-ah-alcohol.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
gore ran one of the worst campaigns in my lifetime, worse than kerry for sure.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:19 (eleven years ago) link
i blame a society that tells its children that the answers can be found in the mtv video games
gore was utterly terrible, this is indisputable, anyone who disputes it is insane
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:20 (eleven years ago) link
http://ww1.hdnux.com/photos/10/24/41/2181204/5/628x471.jpg
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:21 (eleven years ago) link
what a fascinating creature
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:22 (eleven years ago) link
way xp
"no problem sir, you look great!" *turns away, smiles broadly*
they need tod a skit where every romneyshamble is a total set up by his underlings who despise him.
― backed by regular small people (Hunt3r), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:23 (eleven years ago) link
I look that photo and just get nauseous – like Chamberlain holding the peace deal.
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:23 (eleven years ago) link
are Obama and Romney doing any of those weird town-hall style debates becuz if so popcorn.gif
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:23 (eleven years ago) link
re: Dukakis gettin the nom in '88 it just seemed like that could have possibly been a gimme-election for the Dems - Poppy hardly had the common touch and had trouble carrying Reagan's mantle. But yeah Hart was probably the best bet and then he fucked up.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:25 (eleven years ago) link
dukakis was waaay out in front early before people got to know him
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:26 (eleven years ago) link
is there anyone who went straight from VP to two-term president?
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:27 (eleven years ago) link
adams
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
^super relevant
dukakis was waaay out in front early before
http://digitaljournalist.org/issue0309/images/life/dukakis.jpg
― vincent black shadow giallo (Edward III), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:29 (eleven years ago) link
― lag∞n, Thursday, September 20, 2012 3:28 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
uh nm
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:29 (eleven years ago) link
Harry Truman, right?
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
Oh, I guess he was only elected (as prez) once.
jefferson!
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
yes. The Elizabeth Drew book is good. Dukakis got less respect in the party as people realized what a donkey he was.
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
the Dana Carvey/Jon Lovitz debate skits as Bush/Dukakis were great
http://www.hulu.com/watch/4117
― cake-like Lady Gaga (DJP), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
teddy roosevelt
― lag∞n, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
tsongas was 92, kick started deficit hawk mania that led to perot getting in the race, didn't want to be santa claus. beyond that wasn't a huge factor, winning new hampshire was a shock but clinton's 'comeback' was as much the real story. i can remember a day or two after the nh primary letterman had tsongas on - but not to actually sit down and speak, he just had tsongas come in thru the side door, cracked a joke at his expense, and then had tsongas leave. that's how seriously tsongas was taken in 92. clinton's real comp was bob kerrey w/ jerry brown in the spoiler role. weak field generally, heavy hitters scared off by bush approval ratings at end of gulf war, http://snltranscripts.jt.org/91/91edebate.phtml . 88 was considered stronger field - no cuomo or bradley or nunn or kennedy but gephardt, gore, babbitt, jackson, a hobbled gary hart, joe biden briefly, james traficant hilariously. dukakis had strongest campaign team, ran smartest campaign (eg were responsible for alerting press to biden plagiarism), had very successful record as mass gov. fwiw gop field was also strong that year - beyond bush you also had dole and kemp and pat robertson for better or worse. richard ben cramer's book on 88 campaign is highly recommended.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:33 (eleven years ago) link
Truman, TR don't count for finishing dead guy's term. Truman could've run for his own second term though.
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:34 (eleven years ago) link
could've run and would've lost. vp as obv inheritor of party nod is a very recent phenom anyway right? seems like post-war emergance at the very least.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:39 (eleven years ago) link
yeah it seems strange to me, that this has sprung up as conventional wisdom that the VP has "dibs" on the Presidency but it's never really panned out very well
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:39 (eleven years ago) link
Bush only winning one since Van Buren
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:40 (eleven years ago) link
truman toward the end was one of the most hated pres's ever -- bush just barely beat him in his last year or so.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
yeah ALOT republicans i know used the 'history will vindicate bush, like it did truman' talk immediately after he left office, nevermind they oppose the things truman did that 'vindicated' him or that the other half of the time they could bear to mention bush they say the reason bush was a failure was cuz he was actually a liberal.
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:45 (eleven years ago) link
haha yeah the 'bush isn't REALLY a conservative' thing was one of the weirder GOP-think developments of the last decade.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:53 (eleven years ago) link
Dukakis also had a "lil problem": he was 5'8".
― Sandy Denny Real Estate (jaymc), Thursday, 20 September 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSLW3BG3TgE
― balls, Thursday, 20 September 2012 20:14 (eleven years ago) link
Truman's reputation started to recover in the next ten years. Meanwhile a majority of American still think Bush remains a joke.
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 September 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
1988 was the year I started watching SNL.
I remember this:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xletq9_saturday-night-live-dukakis-after-dark_fun
http://snl.jt.org/caps/episode_sketches/1988-11-05-8.jpg
Matthew Modine ... Lloyd BentsenDana Carvey ... Jimmy CarterNora Dunn ... Joan BaezCheryl Hardwick ... pianistPhil Hartman ... Ted KennedyJan Hooks ... Kitty DukakisVictoria Jackson ... Donna RiceJon Lovitz ... Michael DukakisKevin Nealon ... LeRoy Neiman
― Fiendish Doctor Wu (kingfish), Thursday, 20 September 2012 21:37 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/
game over man
― Mordy, Monday, 24 September 2012 18:25 (eleven years ago) link
not really what that article says man
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 24 September 2012 18:44 (eleven years ago) link
ok
― Mordy, Monday, 24 September 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
obama now at 81.9% on 538 - his highest point so far this election iirc? (previous high mark: 80.7% from convention bounce)
― Mordy, Thursday, 27 September 2012 12:33 (eleven years ago) link
Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?By NATE SILVERThere’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on Wednesday.
― lag∞n, Thursday, 27 September 2012 14:12 (eleven years ago) link
what do you have to add to NYTimes URLs to read articles for free again?
― set me on fire RAAAAH (DJP), Thursday, 27 September 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
delete evthg after "html"
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 27 September 2012 14:17 (eleven years ago) link
or just click on an inbound link http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/sept-26-could-2012-be-like-2008
― lag∞n, Thursday, 27 September 2012 14:20 (eleven years ago) link
oh god, i just now finally watched the joe scarborough "sweet jesus" thing, that is pretty fucking satisfying on some irrational and childish level, for me personally
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 27 September 2012 14:23 (eleven years ago) link
From Silver's blog post:
The “now-cast” estimates that Mr. Obama would have a 97.8 percent chance of winning an election held today. Further, it pegs his advantage at five and a half percentage points in the national popular vote.
lol @ Romney
― set me on fire RAAAAH (DJP), Thursday, 27 September 2012 14:32 (eleven years ago) link
oh god, i just now finally watched the joe scarborough "sweet jesus" thing, that is pretty fucking satisfying on some irrational and childish level, for me personallypls elaborate!
― Trad., Arrrgh (stevie), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:23 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/26/joe-scarborough-romney-ryan-sweet-jesus_n_1915975.html?utm_hp_ref=media
― Legendary General Cypher Raige (Gukbe), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:24 (eleven years ago) link
― set me on fire RAAAAH (DJP), Thursday, September 27, 2012 3:15 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
add the javascript at this URL http://pastebin.com/QNyY4bdL as a bookmarklet, go to nytimes.com, click the bookmarklet. resets your article count by deleting all your nyt cookies.
― caek, Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:28 (eleven years ago) link
how do you add the javascript as a bookmarklet?
― Mordy, Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:32 (eleven years ago) link
create a bookmark and paste the Javascript as the destination
― set me on fire RAAAAH (DJP), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:34 (eleven years ago) link
Or drag the link onto yr bookmark bar.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:45 (eleven years ago) link
Sorry drag the script
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:46 (eleven years ago) link
will you guys be sad when the NYT is bankrupt
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:53 (eleven years ago) link
They released some statement about how they're getting more digital money/subscriptions than ever so no.
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:53 (eleven years ago) link
xp I actually just use a subscription (not my own, but whatever.)
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 27 September 2012 15:57 (eleven years ago) link
I'm a little concerned about this potential libyagate thing, some hay to be made there possibly?
― space dokken (Edward III), Thursday, 27 September 2012 16:51 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/from-video-to-terrorist-attack-a-definitive-timeline-of-administration-statements-on-the-libya-attack/2012/09/26/86105782-0826-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_blog.html
― space dokken (Edward III), Thursday, 27 September 2012 17:47 (eleven years ago) link
This was on tumblr with the caption "GOD YOU RUIN EVERYTHING"
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_maihp4eKsl1qz80pso1_400.gif
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:02 (eleven years ago) link
Wait is that sped up? What the hell is he doing?
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
JENGA DUDE
― farte blanche (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
five foot jenga my friend
― lag∞n, Wednesday, June 6, 2012 8:01 PM (3 months ago)
― mookieproof, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:34 (eleven years ago) link
it was kind of charming to see romney jr. prank call dad with one of those arnold schwarzenegger sound boards.
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:35 (eleven years ago) link
lol youtube comment on the video: "This kind of symbolizes how he would run the country. He takes from the middle and adds to the top but when the top gets too heavy and there isn’t enough of the middle left to support the top, the entire thing collapses."
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:36 (eleven years ago) link
I KNOW what Jenga is, thank you very much. You'll be saying I don't know what clocks are next. I meant what the hell was his little dance.
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:39 (eleven years ago) link
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1162348.1348002426!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/gallery_635/mitt-romney.jpg
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:42 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.bradblog.com/Images/MittRomney_CryingBaby.jpg
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:43 (eleven years ago) link
Clocks are big; machines are heavy.
― Three Word Username, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:43 (eleven years ago) link
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRjYQaA0S4QsGNvzR3-fdW6r4xhGIbMX9_4h278ifRJq1lvv2TaRNHfXeD4XQ
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:44 (eleven years ago) link
xxxpost
Mr. Roboto, looking for the battery compartment.
― Old Lunch, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:44 (eleven years ago) link
Mitt isn't even pres yet and he's aged 10 years on the campaign trail (not least because he's been campaigning for 10 years, but still ...)
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 September 2012 22:53 (eleven years ago) link
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, September 27, 2012 6:35 PM (41 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
woah for real?
― some dude, Thursday, 27 September 2012 23:18 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbaBhb7w_1s
the funny part is mitt's responses also sound like they are from a soundboard.
― Philip Nunez, Thursday, 27 September 2012 23:39 (eleven years ago) link
!!!!
― pun lovin criminal (polyphonic), Thursday, 27 September 2012 23:42 (eleven years ago) link
Is that real?
o man schwarzenegger and pacino prank calls were some of the first things i ever downloaded, off of audiogalaxy forever ago. so weird to see it pop up like that.
― balls, Friday, 28 September 2012 02:12 (eleven years ago) link
yeah i had a phase in college of listening to those constantly
― some dude, Friday, 28 September 2012 02:19 (eleven years ago) link
romney and crying baby pics are v. v. lol
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Friday, 28 September 2012 02:48 (eleven years ago) link
I wonder if anyone's sussed out Romney's cell phone number from that prank call clip...
― Old Lunch, Friday, 28 September 2012 03:29 (eleven years ago) link
1-900-mix-alot
― balls, Friday, 28 September 2012 04:35 (eleven years ago) link
I wonder if his sons do this to him all the time. Like it was just Schwarzenegger this time, but last time he was speaking to Daniel Plainview about petroleum concerns.
― Philip Nunez, Friday, 28 September 2012 07:48 (eleven years ago) link
Mormons share love through pranks
― The Most Typical and Popular Girl Rider (Crabbits), Friday, 28 September 2012 14:02 (eleven years ago) link
is there a Romney with crying babies Tumblr yet
― set me on fire RAAAAH (DJP), Friday, 28 September 2012 14:05 (eleven years ago) link
538's numbers keep getting more and more cheerful
― paradiastole, or the currifauel, otherwise called (thomp), Friday, 28 September 2012 14:11 (eleven years ago) link
although annoyingly the articles are now nyt paywalled
OK, TV movie right now!!!!
http://media.avclub.com/images/414/414525/16x9/627.jpg?0793
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 September 2012 14:50 (eleven years ago) link
The Kwisatz Kolobach
― Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 September 2012 14:54 (eleven years ago) link
Not a Dune nerd, had to google, still hard!
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 September 2012 14:55 (eleven years ago) link
sez u
Obama, the more efficient evil
― kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 28 September 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
21st century America, we're all about efficiency, dammit!
― Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 September 2012 14:59 (eleven years ago) link
i've never been kneejerk mocked by morbius about politics before, today i am become a true ilxor
― paradiastole, or the currifauel, otherwise called (thomp), Friday, 28 September 2012 15:11 (eleven years ago) link
http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/undergroundw/undergroundw1012/undergroundw101200085/8426535-male-offering-flowers.jpg
― taking tiger mountain (up the butt) (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 September 2012 15:13 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/oct-1-is-the-presidential-race-tightening-heading-into-the-debates/
it's weird bc the model is showing the highest % for obama since it started (now at 85.7%) - also nate is all about electoral ties right now even tho the model indicates they'll only happen a whopping 0.6% of the time???
― Mordy, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:21 (eleven years ago) link
Oh snap, Ryan's got an unwanted videotape in his past, too
― Raymond Cummings, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:27 (eleven years ago) link
it's in the interest of Nate's publisher to look for storylines other than "yep, this is all wrapped up" xp
― the physical impossibility of sb in the mind of someone fping (silby), Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:28 (eleven years ago) link
electoral college tie where bam wins the popular vote but house picks romney = best hope for american gov't total collapse?
― iatee, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:29 (eleven years ago) link
one of the things i like most about nate tho is that he generally is good at resisting nonsense storylines.
― Mordy, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
imagine the other way around (were it possible) xp
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
Silver's not in the business of making up shit.
― Norah Jones Protest Vote (Eazy), Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:43 (eleven years ago) link
oh I don't think he's making anything up, it's just gotta be boring (and bad for pageviews) to make every update "yep, O is still winning by a lot!"
― the physical impossibility of sb in the mind of someone fping (silby), Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:44 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, he's got to get a post a day up, and there's not a lot of change most days, so a lot of them are going to be "Could _this_ happen? *massive nerd-out*... so, in conclusion, no"
Specifically the race tightening is about "maybe a little, but remember that the country-wide polls don't matter shit compared to the swing states".
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
When I was around 9 and I learned about the electoral college. I figured out that someone could win the popular vote but lose the election and I was quite distressed by this, so I used the library computer to email President Clinton that I had discovered a glaring flaw in our electoral system.
I got a letter in the mail thanking me for my interest in the electoral process. Now that Nate Silver has predicted that Romney will be anointed against the people's will, throwing us into civil war, I suppose I'll be drafted to fight the Federated States of The Real America. If only Clinton had heeded my warning.
― ENERGY FOOD (en i see kay), Tuesday, 2 October 2012 22:51 (eleven years ago) link
Is it against the spirit of the thread to post the trailer to the new Red Dawn?
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 23:08 (eleven years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/y181U.jpg
successfully gasfacing mitt romney in a photo makes that guy a hero to us all
― has important things to say about gangnam style (Hurting 2), Wednesday, 3 October 2012 02:54 (eleven years ago) link
In all these various electoral scenarios, Florida and Virginia aren't crucial if Obama wins Ohio/Michigan/Pennsylvania, right?
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/obama-swing-states-polls-leads-ohio-tied-virginia-florida.php
― clemenza, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 14:25 (eleven years ago) link
I think that's right. He's still over 270 even without Iowa and Colorado, too.
― timellison, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 14:38 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know if it's because I am feeling sick this afternoon or just paranoid because of 538's latest post, but I've become a little panicked about this happening.
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Friday, 12 October 2012 17:39 (eleven years ago) link
it hasnt been a good week!
― max, Friday, 12 October 2012 17:43 (eleven years ago) link
That 538 post bears out the idea that state polls follow national. Inexplicable and grim.
http://teamaltman.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/house_of_cards-apva-090324-266x300.jpg
― clemenza, Friday, 12 October 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
press loves a nailbiter
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
Dems love a mittpocalypse
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 12 October 2012 19:26 (eleven years ago) link
I prefer no drama, and no chance of a mitt win. But I am not a dem.
― Aimless, Friday, 12 October 2012 19:34 (eleven years ago) link
I prefer no election.
― Ham Lushbaugh (Eric H.), Friday, 12 October 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
I prefer the drummer
― space dokken (Edward III), Friday, 12 October 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
Can't believe this Libya stuff has legs. Horrible the embassy was attacked - my father in law was an ambassador- but are there Americans up in arms about this? Does Libya get cheers and boos on the trail?
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 12 October 2012 21:50 (eleven years ago) link
doubt anyone gives a fuck except Hannity et al
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 21:51 (eleven years ago) link
Wingnuts blatantly running a play from the Carter 2.0 playbook, trying to draw parallels between botched hostage rescue mission and Libya killings. That it's no longer 1980/1950/(insert pre-Abolition year of choice) seems to be a terrible and eternal source of dismay for these oxygen thieves.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Friday, 12 October 2012 21:55 (eleven years ago) link
Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight)10/12/12 6:42 PMReal good day for Romney in the polls. Maybe his best yet. He's now up to almost 40% in our forecast. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
― iatee, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:46 (eleven years ago) link
u not understand the point of ths thred
― Gyrate For Physicet (Old Lunch), Friday, 12 October 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
wanted to make it more exciting
― iatee, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:50 (eleven years ago) link
kinda fascinated w/ how quickly and to what extent the polls have followed the New Media Narrative
― max, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:51 (eleven years ago) link
I feel similarly, like there's some kind of feedback loop in play here
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 22:52 (eleven years ago) link
i'm kinda shocked too. i don't really think of debates as real events, so it's hard to imagine a debate moving the dials so drastically. i have to reevaluate what an event is.
― Mordy, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:53 (eleven years ago) link
you obv can't remove media from the equation but there were tons of new media narratives that didn't budge the polls at all this campaign
― iatee, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:53 (eleven years ago) link
feel like poll respondents heard Obama lost something and are like "what? I'm not voting for a loser!"
people are stupid
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 22:55 (eleven years ago) link
even so I still expect Obama to win handily, there is no way Romney can sweep all the states he needs to.
i wonder if obama is kicking himself
― Mordy, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:56 (eleven years ago) link
eh i agree w/ silver that its lessa bout obama doing poorly than it is about romney solidifying support after a few bad months. and honestly the race was always going to tighten after that -- its just the rate at which its quickening!
― max, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:56 (eleven years ago) link
yeah it's like the GOP is rallying behind their guy both out of admiration that he did something right + desperation
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 22:57 (eleven years ago) link
I like my narrative that this is where romney shoulda been post-convention and this was basically convention take 2 w/r/t getting the normal 'ya prob not gonna vote for the democrats' ppl fully on board
― iatee, Friday, 12 October 2012 22:58 (eleven years ago) link
No longer a chance Mitt will withdraw in favor of Mitch Daniels xp
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Friday, 12 October 2012 22:58 (eleven years ago) link
Max, otm. GOP voters have been whinging for ages about the candidate they ended up with and the fact that Mitt wasn't trounced gave them some fire in the belly. The Fox/RNC would have stoked their Obama hatred anyway so this is probably not much of a game changer.
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Friday, 12 October 2012 23:00 (eleven years ago) link
its just the rate at which its quickening!
That's part of what's so discombobulating for me. There are a hundred ways this could have ended up exactly the same place it's at now--maybe tied, maybe one guy or the other a point up--and I wouldn't have batted an eye. It's the speed at which it's happened, the extreme reversal, and the fact that it was triggered by a debate performance that was merely listless.
― clemenza, Friday, 12 October 2012 23:13 (eleven years ago) link
GOP smelled blood in the water with so many in the New Media conceding victory to Mitt. personally I didn't think Obama did that badly, I thought both were horribly boring.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 23:14 (eleven years ago) link
well if the race stays narrow for a few weeks it's going to come down to ground game, and OfA has quite the ground game, as one might recall.
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Friday, 12 October 2012 23:20 (eleven years ago) link
he didn't do badly at all, but mitt is the most competent debate candidate the gop has had in a longggg time + tricky shift to the center caught obama a little off guard w/r/t what he needed to be attacking mitt on
― iatee, Friday, 12 October 2012 23:21 (eleven years ago) link
the gop won the 'lower the expectations' game by plotting this out 20 years in advance and making sure every candidate until now was barely literate
― iatee, Friday, 12 October 2012 23:22 (eleven years ago) link
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 12 October 2012 23:23 (eleven years ago) link
Their butlers read to them.
― 50 Shades of Greil (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 12 October 2012 23:57 (eleven years ago) link
its funny that the gop base is getting so fired up over someone who has decided running as a republican was a surefire route to defeat
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Saturday, 13 October 2012 00:00 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=4555583617923&set=a.2790859940934.2136786.1541438279&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf
Oof
― pun lovin criminal (polyphonic), Saturday, 13 October 2012 01:18 (eleven years ago) link
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/384204_4555583617923_1352854593_n.jpg
Jesus
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 13 October 2012 01:24 (eleven years ago) link
This fucking country
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 13 October 2012 01:25 (eleven years ago) link
single issue voter, huh
― Clay, Saturday, 13 October 2012 01:25 (eleven years ago) link
oh god oh god oh god please don't let that fucker romney win! HE HAS THE LEAD NOW! ARRRRGGGGHH!
remember when it was bush/gore and all those people were like "eh, democrat, republican, what's the difference?" and it turned out that yes, actually, there was a pretty big difference?
I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?
― messiahwannabe, Saturday, 13 October 2012 02:18 (eleven years ago) link
put a sock in it
― your face - u deserve to get it laughed in! (Hunt3r), Saturday, 13 October 2012 02:18 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvLeQbwuKys
― some dude, Saturday, 13 October 2012 02:27 (eleven years ago) link
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/10/13/us/politics/13fivethirtyeight/13fivethirtyeight-blog480.jpg
― buzza, Saturday, 13 October 2012 03:29 (eleven years ago) link
It's been clear for years that people hate, hate, hate, for no rational reason, Obama. But those are just the vocal haters. There's got to be a sizable number of people who hate him secretly who have just been waiting for an excuse to show their hand. Perhaps those are the same people who voted for him last time but do not plan on voting for him again.
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 13 October 2012 03:30 (eleven years ago) link
Or maybe just Romney is rigging the polls?
Pretty surprised at the people on my FB who are hitting the "Like" on Romney and Ryan. I know these people and really wonder how the hell they think they will benefit from Romney/Ryan.
― *tera, Saturday, 13 October 2012 03:33 (eleven years ago) link
You might be right about them but also facebook has been doing some funky stuff with the side ads, making it look like people "liked" things that maybe weren't what it said when they clicked it.
― purveyor of generations (in orbit), Saturday, 13 October 2012 03:42 (eleven years ago) link
clicking anything on Facebook clearly hazardous to yr health and friendships
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Saturday, 13 October 2012 03:43 (eleven years ago) link
Really???????? That is some sneakyassshit!
― *tera, Saturday, 13 October 2012 04:23 (eleven years ago) link
This is basically the result of the result of the first two consecutive weeks going by in which Romney hasn't punched himself in the nuts on live tv ((c) Aero) - it'll stop once he takes up that noble practice again.
― Andrew Farrell, Saturday, 13 October 2012 05:37 (eleven years ago) link
youtubing Aerosmith Late Show Nut Punch, nothin coming up
― *buffs lens* (schlump), Saturday, 13 October 2012 06:02 (eleven years ago) link
Unfortunately, I think Romney is competent enough to avoid punching himself in the nuts for another couple of weeks, especially if he can make it thought Tuesday night. That note he slipped onto his podium during the last debate. "Don't punch yourself in the nuts."
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 13 October 2012 13:47 (eleven years ago) link
― iatee, Friday, October 12, 2012 6:58 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
i agree w/this but honestly im im getting a lil queasy just thinking abt the election/seeing this thread/reading 538
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Saturday, 13 October 2012 14:18 (eleven years ago) link
wish romney would start punching himself in the nuts again
i feel like Romney still pretty consistently says something horribly ill-advised on a daily basis, the "big bird" thing just ended up too silly to be damaging (partly because of Obama's stupid ad) and other things happened at the debate that made that not the main takeaway from it. no matter how safe he tries to play it at the next debate, he'll say some dumb shit that'll probably blow back on him more.
― some dude, Saturday, 13 October 2012 14:28 (eleven years ago) link
Z S a few months ago, forecasting the election: September Mitt looks admiringly at October Mitt.
http://dellioandwoods.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/mitts1-e1329447740242.jpg?w=590
― clemenza, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:30 (eleven years ago) link
tax cuts for sex offendersretirees sent to work in prisonswalks on stage slung w/guitar on which to imitate hendrix' star spangled banner cover for opening statementxp
― *buffs lens* (schlump), Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:30 (eleven years ago) link
He punches himself by insisting on taking any little thing and twisting it and making an issue out of it even if it seems out of character or unrelated to his interests. His *tough stance on Benghazi* just sounds petulant.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:32 (eleven years ago) link
And shallow and not very tough, actually.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:34 (eleven years ago) link
As sure as night follows day (Silver):
Yet some of the plausible arguments that Democrats were making earlier in the week about Mr. Obama’s standing — like that his position would be more robust in the swing states — are looking weaker now.
― clemenza, Saturday, 13 October 2012 15:46 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know anything about Silver's predictive numbers, but obviously you can't use math to judge the probability of how well either candidate might perform in a campaign.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 16:06 (eleven years ago) link
Anyway, looking at the current TPM electoral map, Obama wins Ohio and it's over. That's currently assuming he also wins Iowa, but he gets to 270 in this scenario without New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina.
― timellison, Saturday, 13 October 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
haha nap time
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeightArizona poll showing Obama leading reminds me a bit of Hawaii polls showing Bush leading Gore late in 2004.
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Saturday, 13 October 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, but really gore had no chance in 2004 regardless
― Doctor Casino, Saturday, 13 October 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
America's not ready for a bearded president
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:02 (eleven years ago) link
i'll grant you that
― Doctor Casino, Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
As proven in 1984:
http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3558/3495755012_ca2ce7b8c9_z.jpg
― 50 Shades of Greil (C. Grisso/McCain), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
America wasn't ready for our last bearded president: he served one term
http://www.historyplace.com/specials/calendar/docs-pix/ben-harrison.jpg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
one of my high school teachers made a point about how you never see bearded republicans esp in congress. it's a good tell.
― iatee, Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:33 (eleven years ago) link
Repulicans who use Beards are another kettle of fish...
― 50 Shades of Greil (C. Grisso/McCain), Saturday, 13 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
"Republicans", even.
http://cinemanostalgia.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/faye-dunaway-network.jpg
It would be a disaster to let this go on another week. By then he’ll be down points and the trend irreversible, if it isn’t already.
We’ve got rumbles from the agencies. Another couple of weeks of this and the sponsors will be bailing out!
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 15 October 2012 14:27 (eleven years ago) link
Ha! Nice analogy.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 14:30 (eleven years ago) link
This is something else that's no big deal, right?
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/usa-today-gallup-romney-has-5-point-edge
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
obviously being behind by 5 points in 12 swing states is not a great thing, but...why did gallup average the results from the 12 states?? that would make sense if we didn't have an electoral collage system, but by averaging them together they ruined about 90% of the informational value.
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
why did gallup average the results from the 12 states??
because they're polling...our leg!
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
*bows*
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
gallup's been doing a lot of shameless "but if you turn the number thiiiiis way" stuff lately
― da croupier, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
that's a poll of 10/5 to 10/11 fwiw
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
i'm going to charitably assume that gallup disaggregated the results,state by state,and have it on their website, and the USA Today totally botched the story because they're a USA Today reporter
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
Wouldn't an average help Obama? I thought the largest lead out of any of those would be Obama in Michigan or Pennsylvania...I'm not sure.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
And the ABC/WashPost poll had Obama up by 5 in the swing states this morning...so who knows???
― carson dial, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:14 (eleven years ago) link
you could speculate one way or another, but that's the problem - there's a state-by-state polling and somehow we're forced to speculate as to what the state-by-state results could be
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
that would make sense if we didn't have an electoral collage system
Would totally support a collage over this bullshit.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
overall an average would help obama w/ those particular states, but we don't know 'how much of each state' is in that number
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
xpost lol, typos of yore
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
Maybe this will make you feel better?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/us-usa-campaign-poll-ipsos-idUSBRE89E1BH20121015
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
There were some good polls today too, I know. Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point that whoever wins, it's going to be with under 300 electoral votes?
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:21 (eleven years ago) link
Are these broken down by parties for those of us who dont care to crack into the numbers? I wonder how many super pissed off dems affect the polls of the last 10 days or so, if any.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
romney would have to swing things quite a bit to get 300 but that's still well within the realm of possibilities for obama
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
It's certainly NOT a foregone conclusion that Obama will be under 300.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
Likeliest scenario for that is if he wins both Ohio and Florida.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
Ohio yes, Florida not so sure.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 20:50 (eleven years ago) link
considering how close florida was last time - during a relative landslide - I'm not very optimistic. I guess a lot of old people have died since then (not enough, but some) - and lotsa hispanics arrived. but still iirc 300 is possibile sans florida.
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:54 (eleven years ago) link
It would be running the table with the rest of the states to get to 300 if he loses Florida.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:56 (eleven years ago) link
Not including North Carolina, that is.
those two seem the least likely of the swing states, tho
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
Obama has 265 right now if he wins Ohio. Every single state now in play except for New Hampshire is six electoral votes or more. Romney has to win every single one of them.
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:01 (eleven years ago) link
mr. silver re:above
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Looking at breakouts of "swing states" from national polls is just dumb when there are dozens of actual swing state polls out every week.
It's basically a choice between looking at a few hundred interviews vs. thousands of them. Not a close call.
Also, (i) everybody defines swing states differently and (ii) not all swing states are equally important.
Rasmussen's tracker of swing states is marginally interesting since the sample size is OK. But better IMO if they ran a tracker of OH or VA.
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:10 (eleven years ago) link
This Morgan Freeman ad is really good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU
― timellison, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
Word
Morgan Freeman for president, obviously
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:56 (eleven years ago) link
I actually wish all political ads could be this classy
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 21:57 (eleven years ago) link
Freeman might have trouble overcoming the "boinking his step-granddaughter" hurdle that has stopped so many other presidential campaigns in their tracks.
― Gyrate For Physicet (Old Lunch), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:03 (eleven years ago) link
but he sounds good! reminds me of someone else, i can't quite recall who...
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:07 (eleven years ago) link
I don't want Candy Crowley in there tomorrow night. I've seen enough of her to know that she is fairly neutral. I want a moderator who's in the tank for Obama.
― clemenza, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:15 (eleven years ago) link
― la goonies (k3vin k.), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:24 (eleven years ago) link
conv upthread made me think of ways the debate could be improved and I realized the best debate would be no moderator + no prepared subjects, just throw em up there and let the yelling begin
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
wait maybe it was another politics thread, anyway whatever
ideal debate would be four rounds of rock, paper, scissors
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
rock paper zing
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
for 'zing' you make a z with your hands, zing beats paper but not rock
― iatee, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:32 (eleven years ago) link
how about a series of escalating uncomfortable situations? romney and obama just have to stand there and deal with whatever comes however they see fit. first some lady walks up to obama and starts calling him a muslim or whatever. then you find an extremist who hates mormons with a visceral passion and throw him at romney. this Religious Confrontation portion of the debate should actually be pretty easy for them as they'll make appeals to tolerance and support each other. but then there's a staged event where someone in the audience is assaulted and it initially appears that one of romney's sons did it. obama is somehow the only eyewitness to the event and is required to testify on stage, but every time he starts to speak his microphone gives off crazy feedback and jim lehrer covers his ears in disgust. then everyone in the auditorium starts making out for a few minutes and the candidates have to figure out what to do with THAT. someone turns the heat up to 84. the clocks are adjusted so that it appears that the 90 minutes have elapsed, which causes confusion because obviously it's only been about 20 minutes or so - or has it?! the debate concludes with a real life fire in the auditorium, and the doors are locked. there's a key that sits in a locked box between obama and romney, but the only way to open it is to answer some sort of trivia question that only one of them would know the answer to. but it's a really hard question so it takes a few minutes and meanwhile people are dying. something along those lines.
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:42 (eleven years ago) link
or, you know, maybe there's a bit where obama realizes that one entire section of the audience is made up of friends and family of innocent civilians he killed
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:46 (eleven years ago) link
Z S otm, great TV at the very least
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
This hypothetical debate is only available on Russian P2P websites.
― Cunga, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
and meanwhile people are dying.
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/qdtG0oiJnJU/0.jpg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:49 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan and Biden are watching this debate together behind a one-way mirror glass booth.
― Cunga, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:51 (eleven years ago) link
ZS is a genius
― ornamental cabbage (James Morrison), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
CNN instant poll reactions coming from audience comprised entirely of bestial brony ex-convicts
― Mordy, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
i.e. Congress
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 15 October 2012 22:55 (eleven years ago) link
wolf blitzer forced to conduct polling wearing sexy comiccon wolf outfit
― Mordy, Monday, 15 October 2012 22:57 (eleven years ago) link
this is the stage and the moderator, but she never asks any questions:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2zizrme.jpg
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Monday, 15 October 2012 23:02 (eleven years ago) link
lol ZS
― la goonies (k3vin k.), Monday, 15 October 2012 23:03 (eleven years ago) link
Ads to be made from this:http://gawker.com/5951756/all-i-really-need-to-know-about-paul-ryan-i-learned-from-this-soup-kitchen-photo-op
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Monday, 15 October 2012 23:05 (eleven years ago) link
Clinton is saying what happened in Libya is her responsibility. Popular female SoS provides cover for a scrambling president--just judging on appearances, looks bad. I'm sure Romney will make a big deal of this tomorrow.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 01:53 (eleven years ago) link
Tradition and Hil's political ambitions would almost certainly have her leaving the post at the start of a second O term so it makes sense for her to take responsibility here if it will protect Obama. Is there any evidence R has the agility to make hay from this?
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 02:59 (eleven years ago) link
no
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 02:59 (eleven years ago) link
if romney does try to make hay out of this i hope obama says something like "we're all sad one ambassador died and everything but at least two skyscrapers didn't get hit by airplanes or a wing of the pentagon didn't go up in flames"
― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 03:02 (eleven years ago) link
this really isn't gonna be a thing, it's only a scandal if you watch sean hannity
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 03:03 (eleven years ago) link
fort hood was supposed to be the end of Obama's presidency according to Fox
― Matt Armstrong, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 04:36 (eleven years ago) link
Freeman might have trouble overcoming the "boinking his step-granddaughter" hurdle
That's been pretty much debunked at this point. Rumors never fully die, though.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 06:13 (eleven years ago) link
this really isn't gonna be a thing, it's only a scandal if you watch sean hannity― iatee, Monday, October 15, 2012 11:03 PM (Yesterday)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bQnxlHZsjY
― clemenza, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 10:10 (eleven years ago) link
checking the gallup polls will not make you feel better
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx
barry better show up tonight
― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 18:53 (eleven years ago) link
i already knew that i shared this country with a lot of idiots, but apparently they are very easily impressionable idiots.
― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 18:57 (eleven years ago) link
I don't even know what I'll do if Romney wins. I'm not a "I'm moving to Canada!" type of person because it's not very realistic, but I am going to be so disheartened and hopeless.
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:01 (eleven years ago) link
Last time around I agreed with a friend that we'd take up smoking if McCain won. So you could do that!
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:02 (eleven years ago) link
I have an intense friend who I really do worry about, should Romney win. I can totally see him snapping.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
We're a nation of disheartened and hopeless people--come on down! (I mean up.)
― clemenza, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
where are all the "debates have no effect on elections" dudes now
way to piss away a lead, mr president
― space dokken (Edward III), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:12 (eleven years ago) link
yo i'm here and still kinda confused about debates having an effect on the election
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:14 (eleven years ago) link
maybe bcuz an alleged 'inspirational' president has never seemed utterly indifferent to engaging his opponent before.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
i never said (i dont think) that debates have no effect on elections, but i did say i didnt think that one would, whoops
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
anyway hella nervous for tonight
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:17 (eleven years ago) link
I heard an "undecided Ohio voter" on NPR this morning and he was exactly as idiotic as I would expect an undecided voter to be. Here was his statement, summarized but not paraphrased: "Obama is really good with programs for the poor and taking care of people, but not really good with stuff about abortion and birth control. Those are religious questions. Romney is just the opposite. So I'd give Obama an A+ on programs for the poor, but an F- on limiting abortion, and the reverse for Romney. I'm just not sure who I'm voting for."
These morons deserve everything they get if Romney wins. May their doom be on their heads.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:17 (eleven years ago) link
man that last debate was so weird
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:18 (eleven years ago) link
that person actually seems pretty informed and rational as far as undecided voters go!
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:20 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, i'd agree w/ him that obama gets an F- on limiting abortion. i mean, a solid grade on not limiting abortions, but on limiting abortions he's been pretty mediocre
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:21 (eleven years ago) link
There's no such thing as an F-. He has totally been discredited.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:22 (eleven years ago) link
i fucking hate undecided voters, how can you possibly be undecided
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:22 (eleven years ago) link
That snl short was in fact a documentary.
― controversial cabaret roommate (Nicole), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:23 (eleven years ago) link
some dark part of me wants romney to win. i'd like to be alive for america's inevitable caligua phase.
― Spectrum, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:26 (eleven years ago) link
you already were
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
i can only hope that right obama is pacing around an dusty warehouse punching walls and swallowing beef curtain jerky whole, psyching himself up
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
great, now Romney's Caligula. Can't wait to see where you guys head with this in 2 weeks.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
libya thing worries me, biden looked v unprepared, now theyve got clinton taking responsibility
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
It's over.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
who won?
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
nah if that woulda been a thing it woulda been a thing by now
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
The Libya thing...I'm not bothered that it took 3 weeks to get the story out to the public correctly. I am bothered that there was an intelligence breakdown that allowed it in the first place. Weird how the media seems to be focusing on the former.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
wasn't the Libyan envoy gay? why wd Repugs give a fuck then?
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
My mother is undecided I have no idea why the fuck why though
― homosexual II, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:33 (eleven years ago) link
romney's not caligula, but in my imagination he'd set the stage for a 200-year reign of intricately incestuous ruling families and their increasingly debased kin. but after g w b, i'm thinking lag~~n might be right.
― Spectrum, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:34 (eleven years ago) link
i don't think it'll be the end of the world if romney wins. america is pretty resilient and 4 years is not that long a time and romney will not get the chance to do too much dmg i don't think (and that's even assuming he wants to and doesn't just turn out to be technocratic moderate)
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
Just appoint a couple of judges to the Supreme Court and other federal appeals courts. No big deal
― curmudgeon, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:37 (eleven years ago) link
also, liberals can pretend to care about civil liberties & extrajudicial executions again.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:37 (eleven years ago) link
why people care so damn much about abortion BAFFLES THE SHIT OUT OF ME
― homosexual II, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
xxxxpost
At this point, I'm honestly more interested in smart people saying reassuring things to convince me that things won't go to absolute hell if Romney does win.
― Gyrate For Physicet (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
it won't be the end of the world != it's no big deal
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, this is the scariest prospect, imo.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, October 16, 2012 3:37 PM (56 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
this is not nothing!
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:39 (eleven years ago) link
then go back to not pretending. HILLARY 2016
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:40 (eleven years ago) link
i don't see any daylight between romney + obama on foreign affairs + war on terror except re tone. obama is more subtle, serious, discursive, romney would be more aggressive, threatening, both would probably deploy same # of drones, both would probably execute iranian strategy in same way (i think, this one i'm not sure of)
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:40 (eleven years ago) link
i don't mean discursive
but like analytic maybe
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
if Mitt wins only death will get a lib to leave the Supremes.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
Too bad for Romney the death squads will be dismantled when he presumes office.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:42 (eleven years ago) link
(i.e. panels; I'm out of practice)
i bet you $10,000 that if romney wins he won't touch obamacare
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
So let's say Romney wins, the house maintains a GOP majority, but the senate stays DEM. Any chance at all Obamacare actually gets repealed? Mitt can't veto anything, right? And it's already passed Supreme Court muster. I guess he could repeal with an executive order, but maybe he couldn't.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:45 (eleven years ago) link
romney much more likely to bring back torture -- can't really see obama reversing himself on that one.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:45 (eleven years ago) link
Ryan and the GOP already have a plan to pass his budget through another reconciliation magic trick, I read yesterday on Chait's site. I don't know if that's possible.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:46 (eleven years ago) link
oh yeah, torture for sure coming back.
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:46 (eleven years ago) link
thank god the mormons wait until jews are dead before they forcibly convert us whew
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:47 (eleven years ago) link
http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/obama-romney-economic-plans-2012-10/
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:48 (eleven years ago) link
i don't see any daylight between romney + obama on foreign affairs + war on terror except re tone.
Diplomatic skill, genuine interest and empathy, etc.
― timellison, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:49 (eleven years ago) link
that's just a morbz open basket imho
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
"empathy" there
Oh well.
― timellison, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:51 (eleven years ago) link
well who knows what romney would do re foreign policy if elected, the fact that all hes said abt it basically amounts to get tough leads me to believe he could be quite a bit worse than obama, unless hes just blustering and war w/iran is not really a thing he wants, which is completely w/in the realm of possibility
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:53 (eleven years ago) link
WHO DO YOU TRUST MORE ON IRAN
― timellison, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
hes just blustering and war w/iran is not really a thing he wants, which is completely w/in the realm of possibility
All of his wild west foreign policy words have been put in his mouth imo. Of course, if he'll do it in a campaign, he'll be just as much a piece of clay in office.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
my impression is that the circumstances that determine whether we go to war w/ iran or not has very little to do w/ whether obama or romney is in office
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:56 (eleven years ago) link
our torture has just been outsourced
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
like, obama has said that military intervention is on the table re stopping nuclear iran. that he will not allow iran to get nuclear weapons. and he's actually president! to believe that obama won't go to war w/ iran takes a bigger leap of faith than believing romney won't go to war w/ iran.
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
I said on one of these half dozen threads last week that this typical CIA botch job for which the State Department will get the blame and accusations that it's run by striped-pants pansies.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 19:59 (eleven years ago) link
*that this IS
― timellison, Tuesday, October 16, 2012 3
how do you gauge these things?
Is war really in the cards? Seems more about whether there's going to be strikes on their facilities. Much prefer Obama for dealing with the whole region on the issue.
― timellison, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
Intuition.
― Mordy, Tuesday, October 16, 2012 3:57 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
of course either of them would go to war w/iran depending on circumstances, that doesnt mean that itd require the same circumstances for both tho, duh
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
Obamajesus
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:01 (eleven years ago) link
re: differences between obama and romney -- i don't actually believe that gore, if elected, would have gone to war in both iraq and afghanistan. i imagine it would have been a clusterfuck either way but i think the mess would have been a bit less sloppy.
― omar little, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:07 (eleven years ago) link
so i think obama while not exactly a pacifist could handle things differently, just as the previous prez handled it differently than gore likely would have.
no one except bush and his cronies was going to war in iraq, that shit was so left field
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
Pretty sure Al Qaeda would've been so scared of a Gore administration that Osama would have vetoed the attacks.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
woulda been interesting cause the gop woulda pinned 9/11 on gore in a fairly cynical way for the 2004 elections. he possibly woulda prevented it, also.
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
yeah, i don't think romney is going to invade like north korea. he seems a lot more practical + pragmatic than bush to me
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
I don't believe it for a second, Mordy. That's what Bush was in 2000 too.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
romney is a total cypher but one thing that i think does emerge from the biographical fog is that he is v risk adverse
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
bush never struck me as practical or pragmatic
^^ what lag00n said
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
on the other hand i dont think he has much of a backbone and could totally be bullied by the gop into doing just abt anything
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
that's true, and if you're adverse to pissing off your base, and your base is essentially the tea party now (witness Akin pulling an Akin and then everyone quietly going back to his corner once the fury died down a bit), then you're more likely to do the bidding of the far right, no?
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
i mean alienating his party is a risk too
He didn't look that way to me either but that's how he presented himself: all that compassionate conservative palaver and "humility" in foreign policy.
I can't think of a major policy point on which Romney has repudiated Bush.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
as w bush it's not so much a question about the man as about his patrons; romney is clearly a technocrat with no discernible principles but as he also has no discernible spine i'm not partic comfortable w the idea of him being c-in-c while PALLING AROUND w the same kind of violently idealistic war nerds who got to institute their dream project in 2003
― a hauntingly unemployed american (difficult listening hour), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:17 (eleven years ago) link
and "humility" in foreign policy.
not even in retrospect, but even at the time i think there was enough evidence to see this was pretty much a lie. the "humility" idea was put out there contra clinton's democratic-internationalism (yugoslavia, somalia). but if you read james mann "the vulcans" (which i dimly remember) bush's vaunted foreign policy wonder crew was all Team B hyperhawks from cheney on down.
― there is no dana, only (goole), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:25 (eleven years ago) link
romney pals around w/ the billionaires who steal peoples money not the billionaires who make bombs, it's just really hard to imagine him as a war president
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
he would probably outsource our military to mexican and chinese soldiers anyway
― iatee, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
I policy I support ftr
http://t.imgbox.com/adz4svpC.jpg
Josef Stalin and his Merry Band of Bolsheviks! I want ideas from you people, that is what you're paid for.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
well, that's my point, goole: I think it's a myth that Romney will govern as a moderate.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
You want Team B people? John Goddamn Bolton is a senior policy advisor (and he was mentioned in Mann's book too).
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:32 (eleven years ago) link
a myth among who? 50% of our country thinks he'll be a noble right-winger and the other half thinks he'll be a psychopathic fascist. like 3 ppl believe he'll be a moderate.
― Mordy, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:32 (eleven years ago) link
He really seems like a guy who has taken very little interest in international politics over the course of his life. The question of the influence of guys like Bolton is a very serious concern.
― timellison, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:33 (eleven years ago) link
oh absolutely
xp 2 alfred
― there is no dana, only (goole), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:33 (eleven years ago) link
romney's foreign policy team contains michael chertoff, various heads of various security consulting firms, and (specifically assigned to the middle east and north africa) a lady from rumsfeld's bullpen who published journal articles in 2000-2002 w titles like "iraq: time for a modified approach?" and "sanctions: a strategy in decline?"
― a hauntingly unemployed american (difficult listening hour), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:36 (eleven years ago) link
where's Seward?
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
staring across the strait at russia
― a hauntingly unemployed american (difficult listening hour), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:39 (eleven years ago) link
need you to make the "I can see Russia from my house" gif.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:40 (eleven years ago) link
like 3 ppl believe he'll be a moderate.
Some of these so-called undecideds showing up in polls as for Romney now have bought the moderate bit he used in the debate
― curmudgeon, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:41 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/aide-mitt-romney-will-ask-obama-to-man-up-on-libya-20121016
Here's more on Romney foreign policy advisors. Man up!
― curmudgeon, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:55 (eleven years ago) link
yeah moderate pivot clearly working for them and clearly a focus - can you imagine a soup kitchen photo op during the primaries? interesting if 2012 actually makes vaguely true the myth of the 1980 debates - that scary conservative manages to seal election by presenting himself as acceptable, capable of governing alternative to failed, weak president.
― balls, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 20:58 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/morgan-freeman-to-the-rescue
― Raymond Cummings, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 21:53 (eleven years ago) link
honestly i fully expect president romney to start another war w/o having the slightest notion or care about its human or geopolitical implications. he's got his head permanently anchored in the sand, and he's surrounded himself with hawks.
― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 22:17 (eleven years ago) link
and frankly w/o the benefit of hindsight all presidents are ciphers,no?
― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Tuesday, 16 October 2012 22:18 (eleven years ago) link
in terms of daddy issues, romney is in the mold of gw bush trying to eclipse politically powerful fathers while obama is in the clinton absentee dad boat. al gore is in the powerful dad boat as well and it's interesting to see how his life changed (and seems more self-actualized) once the expectation of the presidency was off the table.
― Philip Nunez, Tuesday, 16 October 2012 23:24 (eleven years ago) link
Wow--Romney's moved ahead on the RCP electoral college map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
And he's almost pulled even on TPM's:
http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
― clemenza, Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:07 (eleven years ago) link
surprised he ever trailed on RCP
― diatribe soundsystem (is playing at my house) (Hunt3r), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:17 (eleven years ago) link
Something's going on, because that first debate can't be responsible for shifts like this.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:24 (eleven years ago) link
sorry bam, america just isn't that into you
― our beef scoreboard is highly reactive to twistsnturns of board opinion (Hunt3r), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
i'm guessing the latest polls don't take into account the second presidential debate.
but yeah, i'm not in panic mode but as usual i'm baffled, feel 0% connection to half the country
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:27 (eleven years ago) link
Chait and Silver have already speculated: Obama's bump (which always looked baffling to me) was inflated and coming down anyway, a move which coincided with the first debate.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:29 (eleven years ago) link
"Something's going on, because that first debate can't be responsible for shifts like this."
I wonder if they are oversampling Republicans </conspiracy>. I think I'll start a website and adjust all the numbers back to Obama by oh let's say 7%.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:29 (eleven years ago) link
shit is gonna bounce around, and probably revert to something like the pre-october mean, though probably a little closer than that.
i'm not an old political eye or anything but i don't think romney wants to peak in mid-october
― there is no dana, only (goole), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:33 (eleven years ago) link
Obama's bump
INSIDE: SEE whose bump's NOT showing!!!
― our beef scoreboard is highly reactive to twistsnturns of board opinion (Hunt3r), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:34 (eleven years ago) link
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeightGallup poll real bad for Obama. Marquette poll (WI) pretty bad for Obama. Other polls pretty good for Obama. Canceled out in forecast.
ok then
― Matt Armstrong, Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:35 (eleven years ago) link
Why are you looking at colors on an RCP map? AFAICT all they signify is whether a particular candidate is more or less than 5% ahead of the other guy in a given state's polling average. The distinction between a "toss up" and a "lean" is an arbitrary cutoff. Pennsylvania slipped down exactly to +5 Obama, so it became a "toss up", and North Carolina went +5.6 Romney so it became "lean Romney". It's crazy to think Romney's going to win Pennsylvania, and it doesn't matter if he wins NC, so it's all moot. If you want to feel a little better, go to "create your own map" and click "no toss ups" to fill in the states where no candidate leads more than +5 in the polling averages.
― Dan I., Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:43 (eleven years ago) link
shit is gonna bounce around
street poll
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:44 (eleven years ago) link
Starting to join Morbz in "annoyed with the horserace shit" zone.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:51 (eleven years ago) link
(xpost) I just looked at the totals and was taken aback. Good point about Pennsylvania, though.
― clemenza, Thursday, 18 October 2012 21:52 (eleven years ago) link
Okay, this looks good:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadjusted-unemployment-mid-october.aspx
Very good, even, although hopefully the good won't be adjusted out of existence.
― clemenza, Thursday, 18 October 2012 22:01 (eleven years ago) link
barry lost 3.2% today on intrade
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474
i was expecting (wrongly) that strong second debate performance would halt the slide
― reggie (qualmsley), Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:04 (eleven years ago) link
dudes it's been less than 48 hours
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:11 (eleven years ago) link
until a couple days ago we were STILL getting data about the first one. Let's watch "The Cosby Show" reruns instead.
intrade was all but convinced the health care act was going down by the supreme court. like 70-80%. they dont know shit.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:15 (eleven years ago) link
" feel 0% connection to half the country"
ditto except raise that to 95% of the country
― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:39 (eleven years ago) link
i can confirm 0% connection to half. i strongly suspect 0% with most others but am waiting for more data.
*BOOP BEEP BOOP B-B-B-BEEP BOOP B-B-BEEP BEEP*
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:40 (eleven years ago) link
intrade is interesting in certain circumstances. w/ a supreme court decision there are 9 people or really 2-3 people and you are just trying to predict what those people are gonna do. there's no reason to think that a betting market in something like that would do anything but put a numerical value on conventional wisdom. which is sorta interesting in its own right but not very fortune-telling.
I read a blog post this morning that talked about how closely intrade matches nate silver's model - maybe not because it's a good market so much as because people are just betting w/ one source of information, nate silver.
but there are other times when there might be some information out there that can be discovered by the market - like when paul ryan was rumored as the vp pick I looked @ intrade and the number was pretty much at 'sure thing' long before the media was. and in other cases it's just useful to have a benchmark for conventional wisdom.
― iatee, Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:49 (eleven years ago) link
this is pretty interesting:
A USA Today/Gallup poll of registered voters in 12 swing states found that more women considered abortion the most important election issue over jobs and the economy.
― stop swearing and start windmilling (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:51 (eleven years ago) link
I think those kinda things need context because the women most likely to be 100% voting for obama - and would be voting democrat regardless - are presumably the women who consider abortion the most important election issue. vs how many of those women are swing voters and might actually vote on that issue.
― iatee, Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:55 (eleven years ago) link
Strength of a person's motivation is dependent on the strength of their emotion. That is why the words motive, motion and emotion all share the same root. Offhand, I can think of many reasons why women might be more emotionally involved, on average, with the issue of abortion than men would be, but mainly just one big reason.
― Aimless, Thursday, 18 October 2012 23:56 (eleven years ago) link
i don't know, it's such a polarized issue that it seems like whoever would count it as their most important issue would already have made up their mind on romney vs. obama. i.e., there are also tons of women who vehemently OPPOSE abortion and also consider it to be the most important issue, and they would be 100% voting for romney, i'm assuming. so i'm not sure how much of a "swing voter" issue it is because there's little chance for obama to bring women who deeply oppose abortion over to his side.
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Friday, 19 October 2012 00:09 (eleven years ago) link
salon had an interview with the woman who asked about equal pay, noted Undecided Voter:
I asked her to clarify how she defined feminism, given that she’d told me she was passionate about “women’s equality in the workforce” and had said, “I’m very protective of my reproductive rights.” Fenton said, “I’m not only concerned with women.”Did she think that one candidate would be better for women? “That’s hard to say,” she said. “I can only speculate, but if I had to guess, gosh, my gut says President Obama. Based on the fact that he has said, I know he has two daughters so the cause is close to him. Governor Romney has granddaughters, that might help."
Did she think that one candidate would be better for women? “That’s hard to say,” she said. “I can only speculate, but if I had to guess, gosh, my gut says President Obama. Based on the fact that he has said, I know he has two daughters so the cause is close to him. Governor Romney has granddaughters, that might help."
― difficult listening hour, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:18 (eleven years ago) link
i wonder if she's ever tried to do any research on romney's and obama's positions? probably not. why would she? she's an undecided voter
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Friday, 19 October 2012 00:26 (eleven years ago) link
gosh!
― k3vin k., Friday, 19 October 2012 00:27 (eleven years ago) link
genghis khan had a ton of daughters
― Matt Armstrong, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:28 (eleven years ago) link
I can only speculate.
― difficult listening hour, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:29 (eleven years ago) link
(needless to say tho the right has been hysterically ugly to her for viciously promulgating the liberal myth of wage disparity)
― difficult listening hour, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:32 (eleven years ago) link
Are Zogby polls pretty well done? They've got Obama up in Florida.
― timellison, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:33 (eleven years ago) link
I think they/he were/was considered a bit of a joke in '08.
― clemenza, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:35 (eleven years ago) link
An impression I likely got from Silver.
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/07/math-fight-nate-silver-vs-john-zogby
― clemenza, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:37 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus
― Matt Armstrong, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:41 (eleven years ago) link
"gosh"
That statement tells you all you need to know about the electorate at large
― Raymond Cummings, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:51 (eleven years ago) link
Actually thought Romney had the "gosh" vote locked up (alone with the "golly" and "gee" vote). Good sign for Obama.
― clemenza, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:53 (eleven years ago) link
"jeepers"
― Raymond Cummings, Friday, 19 October 2012 00:55 (eleven years ago) link
http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/262729-dennis-miller-endorses-romney-as-the-gosh-president
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 19 October 2012 01:08 (eleven years ago) link
I reaaaaaaaaaally wish pols and Beltway pundits -- mostly but not exclusively men -- would stop separating "abortion" from "economic issues."
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 19 October 2012 03:35 (eleven years ago) link
being an undecided voter & actually getting to ask the two candidates a question & still being unable to gauge who might be superior with relevance to the question's answer, i feel like this tells us a lot about why undecided voters are undecided
― *buffs lens* (schlump), Friday, 19 October 2012 03:37 (eleven years ago) link
in this woman's case i think it might be an aversion to politics itself. i mean, saying you care very much about gender equality and reproductive rights but don't consider yourself a feminist says to me you keep most the contemporary discourse at arms' length
― there is no dana, only (goole), Friday, 19 October 2012 03:44 (eleven years ago) link
This kinda stuff just reminds me of why we have to reinforce the teaching of social studies/civics/&c.
Also, look how terrible most people's access to political news is. Effin' cable news or the top of the hour headlines on your local radio station.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Friday, 19 October 2012 03:50 (eleven years ago) link
good news ilxors!
http://i48.tinypic.com/qnahjt.png
― Mordy, Friday, 19 October 2012 04:10 (eleven years ago) link
The national forecast is almost exactly the same as the Ohio forecast (no surprise there).
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 19 October 2012 04:24 (eleven years ago) link
He seems to have never had much doubt about Ohio - boost seems related to Virginia and Colorado tipping blue once again.
― Doctor Casino, Friday, 19 October 2012 04:40 (eleven years ago) link
matt stoller said the high debate ratings reflected an electorate starved of info, watchu think abt that
― zvookster, Friday, 19 October 2012 04:43 (eleven years ago) link
that gels with everything i've been hearing the last 20 years about there not being enough information
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Friday, 19 October 2012 04:47 (eleven years ago) link
bespeaks an electorate mostly overworked, overstimulated, + alienated from meaningful civic/political performance i think
― Mordy, Friday, 19 October 2012 04:49 (eleven years ago) link
the fact that due to the electoral college only 10 states get to really participate doesn't help either
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 19 October 2012 05:23 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.trbimg.com/img-5080dda5/turbine/la-154360434.jpg-20121018/600
― buzza, Friday, 19 October 2012 05:49 (eleven years ago) link
As an American, I resent the idea of government forcing me to learn about government in one of their government-run education centers. Liberty from learning is the greatest liberty of all. You can pry my willful ignorance from my cold, dead hands!
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 19 October 2012 11:40 (eleven years ago) link
Bet those two jowlies sitting behind the Three Stooges have had same seats at the Smith dinner for 50 years.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 October 2012 11:46 (eleven years ago) link
― zvookster, Thursday, October 18, 2012 11:43 PM (7 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Thursday, October 18, 2012 11:47 PM (7 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― Mordy, Thursday, October 18, 2012 11:49 PM (7 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
most people who watch are just partisans watching it like a sports game.
for the low info people it's like reading the election sparknotes the day before the test.
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 12:00 (eleven years ago) link
but the legit low info people watch american idol instead and wait for the aol news homepage to tell them who won
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 12:04 (eleven years ago) link
Silver's post about Gallup polling is really interesting. Huge samples but a regular source of zany swings (something like 26pts over a few weeks during the summer of Bush/Gore? Wildly overestimated Obama's winning margin in '08 and GOP's Congressional gains in '10) and no real explanation why. So he's not weighting it very heavily in this latest update. Which is good cos on its own it's basically MOVE TO CANADA, FRIENDS.
― Michael Jones, Friday, 19 October 2012 12:10 (eleven years ago) link
but if we moved to Canada clemenza would still worry about polls ;)
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 19 October 2012 13:03 (eleven years ago) link
Imagine having to become a blue jays fan.
― one bad call from barely losing (Nicole), Friday, 19 October 2012 13:13 (eleven years ago) link
Pure suffering.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 19 October 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
Feel like this election has crossed some sort of final threshold where now even polls are explicitly politicized and mistrusted (and that's always seemed to me to be the big effect of partisanship: a sort of fundamental defensiveness against information that doesn't conform to your ideology. It's putting some real sense of yourself at stake in political outcomes.)
― ryan, Friday, 19 October 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
on one hand, yeah, having so many polls has made me aware of how one's skepticism is related to how much an outcome relates to what one wants to be true. on the other, having so many polls (and poll analysts) has made clear just how arbitrary and questionable the methods behind them can be.
― da croupier, Friday, 19 October 2012 14:00 (eleven years ago) link
but if we moved to Canada clemenza would still worry about polls ;)― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)
Imagine having to become a blue jays fan.― one bad call from barely losing (Nicole)
Pure suffering.― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF)
Ambiguous sequence...well played, Alex; well played.
― clemenza, Friday, 19 October 2012 14:02 (eleven years ago) link
Can someone explain why Romney would even atend a Smith dinner? I can't say that Smith and Romney were exactly on the same page.
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:33 (eleven years ago) link
Both candidates always go, every election.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:34 (eleven years ago) link
It has escaped my radar. What's the significance of it?
― The windiest militant trash (Michael White), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:36 (eleven years ago) link
An excuse to show the world that candidates can get on.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:38 (eleven years ago) link
Kissing the ring of NY Catholic power, that's pretty much it. Arguably less relevant now, but old habits die hard.
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1185943.1350512545!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/gallery_635/john-f-kennedy-richard-nixon-alfred-e-smith-memorial-dinner-1960.jpg
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:39 (eleven years ago) link
Franny Cardinal Spellman above, bomb-blesser and boy-toucher.
― cancer, kizz my hairy irish azz (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:40 (eleven years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/CwrwT.png
so eeeeevil
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:41 (eleven years ago) link
seriously, hope that fucker goes to jail for awhile
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 19 October 2012 14:56 (eleven years ago) link
for the haircut alone.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 19 October 2012 15:07 (eleven years ago) link
Measuring-the-drapes dept:
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ap-romney-transition-team-working-on-fiscal-cliff
I'm sure I won't be the only one to find it galling if Romney wins and is able to glide past negotiations that would have been a major ordeal for Obama--not because he's a bipartisan guy who knows how to "bring people together," but because, you know, he's not Barack Obama. I have a feeling, though, that this is part of the recent movement towards Romney: a recognition that he will have an easier time with such things.
― clemenza, Friday, 19 October 2012 15:37 (eleven years ago) link
i love that this dude is charged with tossing 8 forms in a dumpster, but takes a mug shot like we're going to all know his middle name soon
― da croupier, Friday, 19 October 2012 15:46 (eleven years ago) link
x-post to Clemenza
Plus the Repubs in Congress will be more ruthless and show more backbone and unity than the Dems tent of libs, centrists,& blue-dogs. The latter may not fight the uh power if Romney wins, they filibustering Repubs have for 4 years.
― curmudgeon, Friday, 19 October 2012 15:49 (eleven years ago) link
the way that fibustering Repubs have
― curmudgeon, Friday, 19 October 2012 15:50 (eleven years ago) link
someday I will proofread
Yeah, I thought about that after I posted--Democrats will be much more accomodating (i.e., spineless or responsible, depending upon your viewpoint).
― clemenza, Friday, 19 October 2012 15:50 (eleven years ago) link
Haven't yall been watching the debates? Republicans are the only party that wants to work in a bipartisan fashion! j/k
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 19 October 2012 15:52 (eleven years ago) link
Kind of curious about the claims of the republicans keeping it together in their big tent - I know it's one of their superpowers, but it's getting pretty crazy in there. What would happen if Pres. Romney comes to them with talk of raising the debt ceiling?
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 19 October 2012 16:11 (eleven years ago) link
republicans don't have a big tent ideologically anymore but they're always pretty keynesian when they run things
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 16:13 (eleven years ago) link
also
National polls published in past 24 hours: Obama +3.2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +1, Obama +0.6, Obama +0.5, TIE, Romney +7.Expand
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 16:15 (eleven years ago) link
Josh Robin @joshrobinObama has a new zinger: says his "flip-flopping" opponent has "Romnesia."
Talking Points Memo @TPMObama: Mitt has "Romnesia" http://tpm.ly/OOBjDh
NEW ZING ALERT
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Friday, 19 October 2012 16:15 (eleven years ago) link
literal back2back tweets^
there should be zing think tanks that come up w/ these things
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 16:16 (eleven years ago) link
dream job
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Friday, 19 October 2012 16:16 (eleven years ago) link
zink tanks
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
Man, tying it all up in a taut catchphrase will do the work of ten debate wins wrt a lot of the electorate.
― Burgled Hams (Old Lunch), Friday, 19 October 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
zing thanks
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Friday, 19 October 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
according to the model at the american zing institute it has the potential to do the work of 2.3 +/- debate wins
― iatee, Friday, 19 October 2012 16:18 (eleven years ago) link
the dream job belongs to david taintor (tpm)
it appears that all he does is cover what stewart and colbert said last night and expand on tweets to make them full sentences that can be published on TPM as breaking news.AND his name is david taintor
― down w/ obana...he is the reson were in dept (Z S), Friday, 19 October 2012 16:30 (eleven years ago) link
romnesia? p sure thats called zingbabwe now
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Friday, 19 October 2012 16:38 (eleven years ago) link
bump for anxiety
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:15 (eleven years ago) link
this thred doesn't do much to quell anxiety
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:47 (eleven years ago) link
O has been dropping like a stOne over at intrade
though he's up a bit at the moment
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:51 (eleven years ago) link
Watched a few minutes of gloating Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe offering his cliched conservative rhetoric and talking to Chuck Todd about state polling. One of the good things that will occur if Obama wins, is that Joe and his not always helpful co-host Mika Brzezinski, will have to for a day or 3, at least, be defensive.
― curmudgeon, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:52 (eleven years ago) link
I posted some stuff on that on other threads. I am convinced this is a campaign stunt – or at least one rich dude w/ an agenda. If you are in Europe where it’s easy to get money on intrade you should buy some bamstock. At the very least it will go up before election day and you can sell it then.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:53 (eleven years ago) link
Adelsons and Koch Bros gaming InTrade? Who knew?
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
The Intrade thing is creepy beyond words.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 13:57 (eleven years ago) link
if it's any consolation intrade got the supreme court health care ruling wrong
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:00 (eleven years ago) link
cost-benefit of gaming intrade is huge - lotsa people are talking about this, costs as much as some local tv ads or whatever. and timing-wise fits w/ the romney campaign's narrative over the last few days where they act more confident than they did when they actually had better numbers. anyway take my advice and you too can retire at age 40.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:01 (eleven years ago) link
so how big is the market? how much would it actually cost to move it by 10 points?
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:02 (eleven years ago) link
there was no reason to believe that a predictions market would be any better than any other way of predicting what was going on in roberts' head. predictions markets are good at information aggregation - but the best information that exists on this stuff suggests that this is not a 50-50 election. also intrade is out of line w/ other betting markets.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:03 (eleven years ago) link
its really small, ovbs the volume changes but there was an article that suggested you could move it 10pts w/like $15k, its ridiculous the news should stop covering it imho xp
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
well one person did that for romney temporarily w/ 17k and the market ate it back fairly quickly. intrade is small enough that it's obvious when a swing like that is happening. it's less obvious if someone is sitting there doing it slowly. anyway, free money imo.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:09 (eleven years ago) link
intrade also not immune to the biases of the sort of people who think intrade is a good idea.
― Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
i was looking at the contracts for democrats taking all three the presidency senate and house like hmmm cause it was a p good deal but then there were like 3 shares available at that price, especially w/the more obscure bets theres just no one playing
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:16 (eleven years ago) link
yeah the prob is it's a zero sum game
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:19 (eleven years ago) link
there are lots of zero sum betting games people love to play tho
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:20 (eleven years ago) link
this i guess is just not that fun
well it's sorta like the betting market for the super bowl winner is gonna be way bigger than the betting market for how many yards will some rb get in the game. the betting market for president attracts a lot of attention, but house races etc. not really.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
the betting market for how many yards some rb will get in the superbowl is prob 10000x bigger than the entire intrade
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:25 (eleven years ago) link
well it helps that it's *legal* you know. if americans could easily get money on intrade it would be way bigger. I think you have to like, send a check?
I actually made a couple hundred bux on intrade last election when it was obv that the hillary/obama shares were being manipulated.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:27 (eleven years ago) link
did u have to send a check
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:29 (eleven years ago) link
I had a euro bank account at the time
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:31 (eleven years ago) link
ah anyway imho it has more to do w/people not being that interested in betting on politics, there are tons of bookmaking sites where you can bet on this stuff too, also i will vote for any candidate who pledges to bring back online poker
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:37 (eleven years ago) link
ya I mean I am not gonna argue w/ 'americans care more about football than they do about politics'. also are better informed about football. also it's hard to root for election night results in the same way you root for a team to win. but some people might benefit from hedging I guess. can afford a ticket to france if romney wins, if obama wins you don't have to die uninsured.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:45 (eleven years ago) link
ha, ok. i just set up an intrade account
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:48 (eleven years ago) link
It's always been my dream to die in France, so I'm not sure who to root for.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:48 (eleven years ago) link
would u settle for quebec
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:49 (eleven years ago) link
Yes--so I think Gary Johnson's my man.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:50 (eleven years ago) link
to return to the thread's most important post...
― dell (del), Saturday, August 11, 2012 7:54 PM
really, I need a site where you don't have to download something that will disable your PC.
― crazy uncle in the attic (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
On further reflection I don't think I'm actually anxious about the election. I think my brain is just producing anxiety chemicals and then I'm using contingency to guess what about.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
im anxious abt the election, also im drinking more caffeine than usual
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:52 (eleven years ago) link
Not anxious about general election. Somewhat anxious about MN marriage amendment vote, as it's dead even now (and I want this one to buck the trend of oops, surprise, +7 in favor of gay marriage ban on election day compared to polls).
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:54 (eleven years ago) link
Not anxious because you're confident Obama will win or because you don't think it matters who wins?
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:55 (eleven years ago) link
I'm anxious thinking whether today the cafeteria will make those mashed potatoes I'm so fond of.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:56 (eleven years ago) link
Do we have an anxiety thread?
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:56 (eleven years ago) link
Yes – every political thread.
Severe Anxiety
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
I bought alfred-college-mashed-potatoes at 58% but the market has crashed
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
youre whipped
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:58 (eleven years ago) link
creamed
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 14:59 (eleven years ago) link
i sold romney. it felt better than buying obama.
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:02 (eleven years ago) link
hah
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:02 (eleven years ago) link
haha. i haven't been on those kinda sites in a while, but if you click strategically you should be able to avoid all the things that trigger downloads
― dell (del), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:07 (eleven years ago) link
i also put all $5000 of the play $ they give you on mike huckabee
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:09 (eleven years ago) link
wait no i didn't it won't let me. that is bullshit.
nate silver mentioned something about writing about intrade today. I bet the market will move a few points just on that article.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:12 (eleven years ago) link
well i already made 27c, so i'm basically quitting academia as i write this
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:18 (eleven years ago) link
"From 9:57-10:03 this morning, someone pushed the Romney's Intrade stock from 41 to 48. Total outlay was $17.8k, and they overpaid by $1250."
https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/260755924493418496
brad plumer wrote about this yesterday, too
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/
being anxious about the election is playing right into mittsy's plutocratic little confidence game!
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
when you cash out your millions remember where this good advice came from xp
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
oh shiiiii i am down 27c now
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:23 (eleven years ago) link
is that before or after my investment advice fees
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:27 (eleven years ago) link
Little of both.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:29 (eleven years ago) link
ok after your fees i am down 81c.
― caek, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:34 (eleven years ago) link
Not anxious about general election. Somewhat anxious about MN marriage amendment vote, as it's dead even now (and I want this one to buck the trend of oops, surprise, +7 in favor of gay marriage ban on election day compared to polls).― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, October 24, 2012 2:54 PM (30 minutes ago)
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, October 24, 2012 2:54 PM (30 minutes ago)
the thing that is making me optimistic is that thx to very smart laws in mn, it has to pass the 50% mark on affirmative votes to become an amendment - so anyone who doesn't vote either way counts against it passing. so when you see a 47% to 47% split (which is what I last saw), that still means it doesn't pass, over half the total cast mn ballots have to have a yes vote indicated.
in other words, 47% vote yes, 47% vote no, 6% get confused and just chew on the corner of the ballot for a while and dont mark anything - amendment defeated 53% to 47%
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:36 (eleven years ago) link
same thing wrt that idiot voter id thing.
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 15:37 (eleven years ago) link
gah both of those have me in sort of a tizzy. my gf has been door knocking for the voter ID amendment. we're both pessimistic. i have myself totally convinced that enough ppl not knowing about it will get the fucking thing passed, because even though it's an insane law, on the surface it looks like something anyone would support. "huh, bring an ID to vote, makes sense" *check yes, forget* and i kinda think it's a bigger deal than the marriage amendment in that the idiot ID amendment just makes it easier to tip votes toward more hurtful idiot laws and BLURGH
― 'til the end, my dear (arby's), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
47% is still too much support imo. Amendments to the constitution should require fucking 75% of the popular vote or more.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:21 (eleven years ago) link
Apparently there's going to be a press conference today about how the Voter ID law would also negatively affect, among all other victimized people, domestic violence survivors.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:23 (eleven years ago) link
oh eric, i agree, the fact that either of these amendments even have a chance of passing in mn is a huge embarrassment and a total disgrace (although like arby's says, the voter ID one is succeeding mostly due to dumb as fuck inattentive people)
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:35 (eleven years ago) link
though voter ID laws unfairly target primarily low income and minority voters (who are heavily correlated with voting Democratic), i think that people's experience of attaining a photo ID are generally so mundane (almost everyone DOES have an ID who will be voting on these measures) that it's hard to make the case that it's truly unfair. hopefully this will never become relevant to MN, but in PA where our voter ID law was merely deferred and not actually defeated, progressive activists need to concentrate on making sure IDs are readily available to everyone. i know they were working on making them available in places like nursing homes, assisted living facilities, colleges, etc before the law was postponed. voter ID laws are going to become a reality for a lot of states, i think, but there's no reason they need to disenfranchise voters w/ enough preparation. there's nothing inherently impossible about making sure everyone has an ID afaik??
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:42 (eleven years ago) link
the voter id law is going to cost us a shit ton of pointless money in a state that has no measurable history of voter id fraud though
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:44 (eleven years ago) link
If states didn't charge for voter IDs or the acquiring of one wasn't so tedious then, sure, I'd support them 100 percent.
For the record, until I learned the difficulty if not impossibility of a poor person getting an ID, I used to wonder "why the fuss?" too.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
I think a lot of people find it hard to fathom that not everyone has a driver's license in their pocket
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
it's sorta a bubble thing - if everyone you know always has an id on them, why would it be a problem?
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:47 (eleven years ago) link
I think the point also is that there are valid reasons for some people to not want to be easy to find.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:47 (eleven years ago) link
in 2004, 2,800,000 people voted in the mn election, and despite many more cases being brought, only 14 fraudulent votes were found.
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:48 (eleven years ago) link
AND THEY WERE ALL FOR DEMOCRATS ... oh wait, and Lizard People.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
We also haven't done enough to combat the "Voting isn't a right, it's privilege" chant. Many people don't understand the relationship between citizenhood and voting; the burden is on the government to explain the circumstances in which you can vote.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:50 (eleven years ago) link
most of the voter fraud that goes on in america is @ poorly monitored rural districts ie republicans are p cool with it
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:50 (eleven years ago) link
actually this is prob the best summation of why the voter id amendment in mn is particularly stupid: http://www.lwvmn.org/page.aspx?pid=777
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:51 (eleven years ago) link
I don't have MN state ID (don't drive or live there) and have to do the Russian roulette of using a passport as identification if I'm out drinking in the Twin Cities. Some places don't accept them, but I don't know why that is.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:52 (eleven years ago) link
yeah that was basically why I got a driver's license. I think someone's manager just says 'no passports' prob because people aren't gonna know what a nigerian passport looks like and then they just follow the rule across the board.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:55 (eleven years ago) link
Can't everyone just wait for the chip implant is my point.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 16:55 (eleven years ago) link
iatee probably otm, but shit, take an american passport goddammit, this is america!!!!!
― goole, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:01 (eleven years ago) link
this is america, if you want to drink you better be able to drive home
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:02 (eleven years ago) link
I am pretty sure I told this story before but I had a gas station cashier in Portland, OR, reject my passport as valid ID to buy beer; I incredulously asked her why a valid US passport wasn't good enough to purchase a six-pack, then waved over a friend with an unexpired driver's license, gave him my money, had him buy it, picked up the six-pack and stormed out muttering about how asinine it was that a federally-issued ID was not recognized in America.
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:13 (eleven years ago) link
gallup lv romney lead to 3, also
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
53/42 is ridiculous - obama's got his best approval rating in 2 years and is gonna lose? what a strange polling firm
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:14 (eleven years ago) link
anyone who has a passport is prob a high-falutin elitist anyway
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:15 (eleven years ago) link
since when have upstanding American citizens recognized the federal government?
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:18 (eleven years ago) link
we were probably all decked out in H-bomb gear, too
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:22 (eleven years ago) link
I had a gas station cashier in Portland, OR, reject my passport as valid ID to buy beer; I incredulously asked her why a valid US passport wasn't good enough to purchase a six-pack, then waved over a friend with an unexpired driver's license, gave him my money, had him buy it, picked up the six-pack and stormed out muttering about how asinine it was that a federally-issued ID was not recognized in America.
had a similar thing happen at a bar in Cleveland. except that instead of giving them our money in the end, we cancelled our food order and went somewhere that recognized Canadian passports.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:45 (eleven years ago) link
we were desperate for beer by that point; we had rounds of asshole to play
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:48 (eleven years ago) link
you are lucky there isnt another you to comment on that post
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:49 (eleven years ago) link
strongo is slipping, I guess
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
(almost everyone DOES have an ID who will be voting on these measures) that it's hard to make the case that it's truly unfair.
Voter disenfranchisement is ALWAYS unfair, Mordy.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 17:56 (eleven years ago) link
So after months of driving people to state offices to get IDs, enduring long lines at motor vehicle departments, and looking for elusive paperwork
http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/07/latino-voter-registration-efforts-running-out-of-time-in-pennsylvania/
getting everyone ids in PA is not so easy either Mordy
― curmudgeon, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:03 (eleven years ago) link
Did either of you actually read my post???
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:17 (eleven years ago) link
yes and it was self contradictory
― goole, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
what do you mean by "mundane"?
the key to unlocking the contradiction is not the word mundane but the words "hard to make the case."
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:22 (eleven years ago) link
well the case that should be made is "this will cost a ton of money to fix a problem that does not exist, unless your version of the problem is too many poor people voting."
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
yes. in it you seemed to accept that, because your experience of obtaining ID was relatively simple and not very burdensome, that there is no particular problem with placing this burden on everyone FOR NO DISCERNABLE REASON!
Pardon my french, but this is a stupid and lazy approach to this issue, for the same reason that it is stupid and lazy when some whitebread middle class person says, "why should anyone object to having the police wiretap them whenever they want to, if they have nothing to hide" and forgetting that perhaps the experience of non-whitebread, non-middle class people with the police might be, shall we say, a tad bit different than their own.
Voting is a right, not a privilege, and putting undue obstacles between citizens and their rights is wrong. Period. No justifications. No rationalizations. No excuses. No special pleading.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
A couple years ago my passport expired a few days after moving back to the states and for about a week I was using an expired license and a notarized copy of my birth certificate to buy beer.
― Fetchboy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:33 (eleven years ago) link
This is such an evil ad, but I sickly admire its inaccurate insidiousness:
http://i1.nyt.com/images/2012/10/24/us/MESSAGE1/MESSAGE1-hpMedium-v2.jpg
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:33 (eleven years ago) link
it's a little too crass to appeal to anyone who isn't already a hardcore republican. would be a better ad w/o that picture.
― iatee, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:35 (eleven years ago) link
xps Any time someone has challenged my passport as ID, I've bored them to death with how difficult it is to get one compared to state ID - plus Federal ID ought to be sacrosanct and if not in this bar, why? Nobody working at a bar has ever been able to answer this to my satisfaction, including my own sister. Back in the mists of time I was told the no-passports thing happens because of a hypothetical situation where an older sister with a DL gives younger sib her passport to use as fake ID, but that seems... convoluted. BTW if you did use a US passport as fake ID and got caught you/the holder are both in SRS TRBL.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:41 (eleven years ago) link
it isn't hard to make the case, you made the case in that post. if it requires a bunch of specifically targeted outreach to get certain people the required ID to vote, that indicates a barrier to voting with a disparate impact
― goole, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
that billboard ad, to the extent it is meant to do anything but gratify the nasty urges of the people who paid for it, is meant to mobilize the people on the sidelines who think politics are pure crap, by igniting some sort of anti-obama emotions strong enough to get them to vote at all. reactionary politics in its purest form.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:44 (eleven years ago) link
Aimless, I don't disagree w/ anything you wrote.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:47 (eleven years ago) link
Well, except for the "you seemed to accept" part, which is not true or accurate to what I wrote. But other than that I don't disagree w/ anything you wrote.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 18:54 (eleven years ago) link
You seemed to accept it when you wrote:
"it's hard to make the case that it's truly unfair" and concluded:
"voter ID laws are going to become a reality for a lot of states, i think, but there's no reason they need to disenfranchise voters w/ enough preparation. there's nothing inherently impossible about making sure everyone has an ID afaik??"
This still seems to me a very passive acceptance of the issue, one that mirrors the idea that when you come right down to it, it is no big deal and whatever minor problems it causes aren't much worth fussing over.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 19:02 (eleven years ago) link
You realize voter ID in PA is law now? It was deferred to give time for everyone to get IDs, but it is now law in my state.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 19:04 (eleven years ago) link
It's a good thing it isn't truly unfair to anyone.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
Well, it is and it isn't
Judge Simpson said in his Tuesday decision that the issuing of the new documents across the state had not been fast enough.
“I expected more photo IDs to have been issued by this time,” he wrote. “Under these circumstances, I am obliged to enter a preliminary injunction” preventing the law from being fully carried out. He said there might eventually be a full trial to determine whether the law could be put into effect in a way that did not burden voters.
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 19:07 (eleven years ago) link
xpost law in PA i mean
it is now law in my state
joke's on us, you live in a commonwealth
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 19:09 (eleven years ago) link
Apparently absentee ballot fraud is a much bigger problem than voter impersonation fraud, and IDs do nothing to help with that.
― o. nate, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
If you've found yourself following the polls a little too closely, read this: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/10/23/PK-obama-stays-ahead-just/
― Plasmon, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 23:18 (eleven years ago) link
how well the ohio economy is doing (relatively) should encourage the anti-mitt contingent
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/business/2012/10/24/jobless-rate-lowest-since-08.html
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 23:27 (eleven years ago) link
if ohio doesn't go for obama it'll be even more wtf than when they didn't vote for kerry
― Mordy, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 23:30 (eleven years ago) link
plasmons link is a must read
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 23:30 (eleven years ago) link
romney isnt going to win ohio unless he starts mailing personal bribe checks to the voters
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 23:31 (eleven years ago) link
O keep wanting to say: I remember gas prices being at an all-time high in September 2008, then lowering closer to Election Day.
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 23:41 (eleven years ago) link
"I keep," that is.
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcdpy12xXO1rq4c0wo1_1280.jpg
― buzza, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:18 (eleven years ago) link
I suppose I should recognize him, but who's Mr. Man in Black?
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:22 (eleven years ago) link
Dick Cheney.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:29 (eleven years ago) link
Some douche.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:38 (eleven years ago) link
I remember Kid Rock's sidekick as being much shorter.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:43 (eleven years ago) link
Which one is Kid Rock?
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:45 (eleven years ago) link
The photo looks like the last known document of an ill-fated fishing trip.
"... and they were never seen again."
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:46 (eleven years ago) link
at least kid rock has a neck
― mookieproof, Thursday, 25 October 2012 02:50 (eleven years ago) link
538's "Now-Cast" is now rougly back to pre-convention levels, btw.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:10 (eleven years ago) link
roughly, even
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/25/an_actual_october_surprise/
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:11 (eleven years ago) link
booklets full of testimony
admirable restraint
― mookieproof, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:43 (eleven years ago) link
Why are most of the news channels saying Ohio will determine who wins the election? Btw, I understand very little about the election process, but doesn't something need to change if one state determines the election.
― JacobSanders, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:50 (eleven years ago) link
acc to 538 OH has a 50% chance of determining who wins the election
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:51 (eleven years ago) link
and i think everyone agrees that this electoral system is all kinds of fucked up
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:52 (eleven years ago) link
but doesn't something need to change if one state determines the election.
hahahahaha welcome to hell
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:55 (eleven years ago) link
It's not that any one state "decides" the election; obviously all the other states count. But since the great majority of states are basically no-contest wins for one or the other party, the discussion closes around the ones that seem to be up for grabs. As the campaign goes on, some of these fall out of the running: one or the other candidate has them in the bag. (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, were considered toss-ups much earlier in this election cycle. Now they're not.) Then, if you break out the electoral math, it becomes apparent that some of the remaining toss-ups have so many electoral votes that they appear to "decide" the election.
Axing the electoral college, or (as a workaround) pursuing the National Popular Vote Compact, would change this up a lot. Instant-runoff voting would also be great to see.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:56 (eleven years ago) link
the good news is that if you don't live in one of the 8 swing states ur television viewing experience is blissfully presidential ad-free
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:57 (eleven years ago) link
bad news is the candidates don't even have to pretend to care about your problems. I almost miss living in Ohio. But not really. It's been observed many times on this board and elsewhere, that without the electoral college gamesmanship you could imagine national politicians suddenly giving a shit about urban issues again - there's a fuckton of voters in big cities after all, but why bother with them when you fully expect to take them and their state for granted? Not so easy when keeping turnout up nationwide becomes important.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 25 October 2012 03:59 (eleven years ago) link
The federal system with 50 different states with 50 different governments and sets of laws is extremely peculiar, and the electoral college system of electing the POTUS is just one small aspect of that essential weirdness.
― Aimless, Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:00 (eleven years ago) link
I just googled electoral college to refresh my memory on how it works, and still it makes no fucking sense.
― JacobSanders, Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:02 (eleven years ago) link
― Mordy, Wednesday, October 24, 2012 11:57 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark
well.... this is true as far as presidential ads go. but a deluge of ads for state/local elections (even in illinois!) still exists.
― lil dirk (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:03 (eleven years ago) link
If only televisions had some kind of controls.
― Aimless, Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:06 (eleven years ago) link
xp. Haven't seen a single presidential ad in New York (upstate), but for fuck's sake, literally every prime-time ad break is nothing but "[sinister voice] Senate Candidate A wants to personally force-feed your children excrement laced with the eyeballs of adorable puppies. [cheery voice] But Senate Candidate B wants to pass a law making sunshine and rainbows mandatory under penalty of death!"
― 5-Hour Enmity (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:07 (eleven years ago) link
this shit invades youtube and hulu repeats of "Bob's Burgers. " I can't escape it.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:09 (eleven years ago) link
I'm getting Obama ads on my Scrabble app.
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:12 (eleven years ago) link
JacobSanders, are you American? Just curious.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:43 (eleven years ago) link
I see zero presidential ads (I don't think either of them even bother coming to WA, OR, or ID) but I see a bunch of ads that:
- point out how the republican gubernatorial candidate is, shockingly, a republican
- show normal boring married people talking about how they gay families they've met aren't scary
- a smaller number of ads saying you're going to get sued if you're a homophobe and don't want gay people getting married in at your resort or whatever
- a lot of ads with serious people in suits telling me how marijuana should be legalized
It's kind of awesome and surreal actually
― joygoat, Thursday, 25 October 2012 04:44 (eleven years ago) link
oh yeah, and the ads attacking a candidate for attorney general for helping a death row inmate get a lawyer (which pretty much makes me more favorable to him).
Plus there's this insane bullshit where the Seattle Times bought $75,000 of ad space in its own paper to run ads for the republican gubernatorial candidate as an "experiment" in the effectiveness of print ads. Not that this experiment can possibly produce any useful conclusions or anything.
― searching for sug woman (JoeStork), Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:00 (eleven years ago) link
i guess they're also buying space to support gay marriage but still, such an awful paper.
― searching for sug woman (JoeStork), Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:02 (eleven years ago) link
Yes I'm american, and american politics make very little sense to me. For instance some states spilt their electoral college vote by district, most don't?? Texas is largely republican so it's a given that our electoral vote will go to Romney, so why vote in Texas?
― JacobSanders, Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:07 (eleven years ago) link
i think i'd rather be inundated with ads while having a greater chance of my vote mattering
― burrito smalls (some dude), Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:12 (eleven years ago) link
i think i am glad to live in a state where my vote doesn't matter at all because we are gimme for the dems, but ymmv
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:27 (eleven years ago) link
Obama could win electoral votes in Texas if the votes were spilt by how a district votes, Austin alone could give Obama votes.
― JacobSanders, Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:31 (eleven years ago) link
I might be wrong about that, maybe I'm giving Austin too much liberal credit.
― JacobSanders, Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:35 (eleven years ago) link
Texas isn't that conservative, it's just the most conservative state that the media gives a shit about
― Matt Armstrong, Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:37 (eleven years ago) link
Obama won Travis County (where Austin is) pretty handily last time. Harris County (Houston) too I believe.
― ryan, Thursday, 25 October 2012 05:57 (eleven years ago) link
Romney's first day after losing the election: montage featuring Todd Rungren's Bang on the Drum where Romney locks himself in his house and, for he first time in his life, has a marathon session of marijuana smoking and dirty movie viewing. He also kills a ton of time on ILX
― Cunga, Thursday, 25 October 2012 06:56 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4KpGiVHP6s
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Thursday, 25 October 2012 07:47 (eleven years ago) link
I've up early today and have seen six Romney and Obama ads in 15 minutes
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 25 October 2012 09:54 (eleven years ago) link
Sorry, Alfred. I live in Texas, and... Well, you can gues the rest.
Our ads are a) local race and b) national issue. The Ted Cruz campaign and whoever his opponent was, their ads are the ones we saw the most of, and that was a while back.
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 25 October 2012 10:35 (eleven years ago) link
― JacobSanders, Thursday, October 25, 2012 1:31 AM Bookmark
This would also be a good system, potentially; Maine and Nebraska have both had it in place for a long time, although it's never actually made a difference. Alternately, you could just proportion out a state's electors based on the overall breakdown of that state, so if the state were 60-40 blue/red you'd have 60/40% of the electoral vote roll out that way. Would also be a huge boon to third-party candidates. Of course, the ruling party in any given state has basically no incentive to ever implement something like this.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 25 October 2012 12:57 (eleven years ago) link
i mean. why not just have a popular vote
― max, Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:24 (eleven years ago) link
bc it would end the republican party
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:25 (eleven years ago) link
seems to me mitt would have a pretty good shot if we were directly electing presidents!
― max, Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:26 (eleven years ago) link
it was my impression that there are far more dem voters in the united states but bc they are mostly concentrated in a few urban areas in traditional blue states they vote less. i don't remember where i got that impression from tho.
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:33 (eleven years ago) link
probably a Democrat
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:34 (eleven years ago) link
Obama getting 270+ electoral w/ Romney getting the popular vote would be our best shot at changing the way the electoral college works, giving each party a recent popular win/electoral loss to remember.
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:40 (eleven years ago) link
would also be interested in how the likely voter model would change with direct presidential election, currently a lot of people on both sides don't bother voting if they're in a lopsided state even if the race is close nationally.
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:43 (eleven years ago) link
I don't know that the Democratic idea of what should have happened in 2000 was "we should elect the president based on popular vote" so much as "we should fire Jeb Bush into the sun"
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:44 (eleven years ago) link
and I'm sure there will be other recount controversies if it goes the other way this year, but until the Republicans are hurt by the electoral college there won't be much of a push to change it from that side
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:46 (eleven years ago) link
my idea was that we should elect the president based on popular vote
― max, Thursday, 25 October 2012 13:56 (eleven years ago) link
There have been four elections (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) in which the winner of the popular vote lost the election. Each time it was a Democrat. In 1824 Andrew Jackson won both the popular vote and the electoral vote and still lost. (At the time you needed a majority of electoral votes, and with four candidates, he only received a plurality. Congress then decided the winner.)
― Sandy Denny Real Estate (jaymc), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
electoral college doesn't necessarily help dems/reps as much as it helps certain states. change is never going to happen because as soon as it started happening people who don't currently realize they have disproportionate voting power would quickly learn that they have disproportionate voting power. less a party issue and more a state issue.
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:13 (eleven years ago) link
NYTimes:
While female voters generally tend to favor President Obama, that cannot be said of white women without college degrees, a group known in this race as waitress moms.
"Waitress moms"!?!
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:22 (eleven years ago) link
maybe they aren't voting Democrat because they keep getting called "waitress moms"
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:23 (eleven years ago) link
by whom, though?
― "pulling a Jaz" (stevie), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:28 (eleven years ago) link
apparently by "this race", and I think we all know EXACTLY what race they're talking about
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:29 (eleven years ago) link
waitress mothers make better lovers
― da croupier, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:29 (eleven years ago) link
― max, Thursday, October 25, 2012 9:24 AM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
^^^ this is substantively the approach taken by the National Popular Vote Compact which I mentioned above: since amending the constitution to switch to a popular vote is prohibitively difficult, instead they're trying to get states to agree to send their electors in the direction of whatever the national popular vote does. Eight states have signed on and another four I think have it on the docket. The gimmick is that all of them agree that it won't take effect until states totaling 270 are on-board, so that they don't shoot themselves in the foot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
If you like the idea, lobby for it in your state, etc etc.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:31 (eleven years ago) link
as far as major electoral changes go I think dc statehood gets a better return 4 yr money
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:36 (eleven years ago) link
the popular vote compact is a great thing and it's nice that the 270 vote trigger means it wouldn't require a congressional vote or constitutional amendment
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:37 (eleven years ago) link
the difference between a popular vote compact and DC statehood is that one of them has a chance of happening in our lifetime
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:38 (eleven years ago) link
I mean it's fine, but I think people overrate the badness of the electoral college compared to other things. like the order of the primaries is probably even more distortionary than the electoral college.
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:40 (eleven years ago) link
nah I would put my money on dc statehood. it can happen whenever the dems control congress and feel like going for the power grab. and the gains are much more obvious.
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:43 (eleven years ago) link
One of my friends posted a thread on FB about that "waitress moms" thing, leading to some great comments, including:
"All that wasted energy on one band from Akron!""I'm voting for any candidate willing to put a waitress on mars within 10 years!""this article completely overshadows the struggles of Maître d'ads"
And my Reddit-ready contribution, "Any mom doing her job properly IS a waitress, am I right?"
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:46 (eleven years ago) link
(xpost) As a DC resident of course I'm hoping for it but even if we get something called "statehood" I don't see it coming with two voting senators and a representative. It's just nowhere near the top of national Dem priorities.
― Sadly, 99.99 percent of sheeple will never wake up (I DIED), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
well the timing has to be right, something like the 2008 majorities w/o the world economy collapsing etc. I'm not saying it's inevitable or anything, but it's a power play there for the taking.
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:55 (eleven years ago) link
― Mordy, Wednesday, October 24, 2012 11:57 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
i live in vt and ive been getting hella ads targeted at nh, way more for obama fwiw
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
btw 538 has obama as a slight favorite in virginia, if he wins there you can start celebrating early
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:00 (eleven years ago) link
Good morning, guys!
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:00 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/10/adsbystatetime.png
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:02 (eleven years ago) link
i watched a pre season celtics game the other night and this ad thats just a clip of romney on 60min saying his tax rate being lower than the average working persons is fair played every comercial break
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
jesus christ, why the hell is James Taylor tacked onto every fucking Democratic presidential run
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:07 (eleven years ago) link
we need the worst celebraties to pretend to be republicans as a covert op
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:10 (eleven years ago) link
cannot imagine how horrible it must be to watch tv in florida ohio and virginia right now
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:10 (eleven years ago) link
I hate that the campaigns discovered Hulu. Can't skip that shit.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:11 (eleven years ago) link
if you use ad block it just shows you a black screen begging you to turn ad block off
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:12 (eleven years ago) link
romnmentum kaput http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/25/oct-24-in-polls-romneys-momentum-seems-to-have-stopped
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:14 (eleven years ago) link
BTW on behalf of Ohio I apologize in advance for whatever happens here.
Every day on my way home I go right past the county board of elections building, and there are a LOT of people doing early voting, every day.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:18 (eleven years ago) link
Some items that are meant to be real but come off as parodies:
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/12928_4602012175566_1447120646_n.jpg
As well as
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0OomdFloKI
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:19 (eleven years ago) link
Man, that eagle isn't even crying. What a waste of effort.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:21 (eleven years ago) link
its funny because romney is the one who brought up big bird
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:22 (eleven years ago) link
re that linkabait conor friedersdorf piece from a while back where he refused to endorse obama because drone strikes and instead went w/the gold standard guy
An economic depression would kill a lot more innocent people than Obama's drone strike program. Economic performance isn't just about money -- it's about people's ability to feed and house themselves and to obtain health care. Economic instability also feeds social and political unrest and can lead to violence and war. William Jennings Bryan had this right: Monetary policy is a moral issue and proposing to crucify mankind on a cross of gold is a "deal-breaker" for me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-25/the-presidential-candidate-who-would-destroy-the-economy.html
health care reform also
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:28 (eleven years ago) link
nah I would put my money on dc statehood. it can happen whenever the dems control congress and feel like going for the power grab. and the gains are much more obvious.― iatee, Thursday, October 25, 2012 2:43 PM (42 minutes ago)
― iatee, Thursday, October 25, 2012 2:43 PM (42 minutes ago)
can you imagine the level of "throw the bums out" spent too much time in washington incoherent rage this would create in the other states tho? seems like a one way PR disaster ticket to a complete congressional turnover.
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:33 (eleven years ago) link
nah I think the rage would be 100% partisan, democrats would quickly agree that a place w/ more people than wyoming should have representation, republicans would all quickly agree that this is the biggest injustice in human history. I actually think they mentioned this in their platform?
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:36 (eleven years ago) link
dc certainly wouldnt be throwing the bums out B-)
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:37 (eleven years ago) link
btw most gangster licence plate
http://i.imgur.com/RF6Vt.jpg
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:38 (eleven years ago) link
hahaha ive never seen that before
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:39 (eleven years ago) link
its so good, maybe not quite as good as live free or die, but still
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:40 (eleven years ago) link
so they unsealed the staples divorce records. when do we find out what's in them?
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:40 (eleven years ago) link
I hate live free or die, it's so randian
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:40 (eleven years ago) link
yeah but come on a licence plate that mentions death, you got to give up the props
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:41 (eleven years ago) link
all license plates imply death cause they are on cars
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:42 (eleven years ago) link
i just spent a couple minutes trying to make the dc one into a die hard movie title to give it the leg up but i got nothing
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:43 (eleven years ago) link
" The nation's capital city, a special responsibility of the federal government, belongs both to its residents and to all Americans, millions of whom visit it every year. D.C.'s Republicans have been in the forefront of exposing and combating the chronic corruption among the city's top Democratic officials. We join their call for a non-partisan elected Attorney General to clean up the city's political culture and for congressional action to enforce the spirit of the Home Rule Act assuring minority representation on the City Council. After decades of inept one-party rule, the city's structural deficit demands congressional attention. We oppose statehood for the District of Columbia. "
2012 gop platform
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:43 (eleven years ago) link
the DC license plate is probably the best in the country
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:44 (eleven years ago) link
― iatee, Thursday, October 25, 2012 11:42 AM (51 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
to drive w/death is to truly have lived
― --bob marley (lag∞n), Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:44 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-momentum-myth/2012/10/25/f7fc67a6-1eaf-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_blog.html
The first group is made up of truly independent, and undecided, voters. Most of them don’t pay very much attention at all to politics. Eventually, they will vote one way or another (at least if they vote), but they may be the most likely to swing between “undecided” and that candidate depending on what’s currently in the news. This create the impression of momentum, but the effect will be short lived, rather than continuous. The second group is made up of voters who have actually decided but move in and out of “likely voter” screens, or even in and out of answering surveys at all, depending on their enthusiasm for the election and their candidate at any given moment. This can create a temporary “surge” in likely-voter support for one candidate that isn’t actually long term momentum in his or her favor. The third group is made up of so-called undecided voters whose ultimate decision is basically predictable. Thanks to the campaign, they end up “learning” to vote for the candidate they might have expected to support all along. For example, there are those voters who insist that they are independent, yet always just happen to wind up supporting the same party. For them, the high-intensity portions of the campaign in which they are exposed to “their” party’s message will often be sufficient to permanently move them from undecided to decided. That can create a bump for a candidate — and the appearance of momentum — but once it’s done, it’s done. There’s no reason to expect it to build on itself.
In all these three cases, shifts happen when the information environment strongly favors one candidate or the other — such as when a party’s (successful) convention is running, or if a candidate is perceived to have decisively won a debate. The key thing, then, is that “momentum” is only likely to last as long as information favoring one candidate continues to dominate the news. And that almost never happens, because the press usually wants to move on to a new story.
For the first two groups, it’s likely that the effect will wear off rapidly once press coverage shifts, as it almost always does. By contrast, for the third group, some of the gains from a “momentum” period are likely to be permanent conversions. But they would have ended up with that candidate, anyway.
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:50 (eleven years ago) link
er that quote would work better if I included
It’s worth thinking about three groups of voters who might change the horse race polls.
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:51 (eleven years ago) link
convention bump is generally #3, so my theory is #3 ended up happening w/ first debate instead after shitty convention
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:54 (eleven years ago) link
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Thursday, October 25, 2012 11:43 AM (16 minutes ago)
taxation without representation harder
― space dokken (Edward III), Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:16 (eleven years ago) link
If DC and New Hampshire have the most badass license plate mottos, Idaho's is the least:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/61/Idaho_license_plate_-_passenger_baseplate_-_2008.jpg
― joygoat, Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:28 (eleven years ago) link
haha FAMOUS POTATOES
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:29 (eleven years ago) link
Would move to ID if they had a plate that said "Guess I'm Just a Spudboy"
― WilliamC, Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:36 (eleven years ago) link
iirc the dc license plate was approved by clinton on his way out in 99 as a fuck you to bush and the gop
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:45 (eleven years ago) link
he put those plates on the presidential motorcade iirc, Bush switched them back
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:51 (eleven years ago) link
to the "Celebrate and Discover" ones
Picturing an anthropomorphized Idaho with hands in pockets, kicking the dirt, and muttering "Famous potatoes" under its breath before sighing heavily.
― Gary Mayonnaise (Old Lunch), Thursday, 25 October 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
Gallup is much closer again. Obama up among registered voters, Romney up among likely.
― timellison, Thursday, 25 October 2012 17:08 (eleven years ago) link
I know Colin Powell will be mostly despised on here, but I'm again glad of this:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/john-mccain-lashes-out-at-colin-powell-after-obama-endorsement.php?ref=fpb
Endorsements almost always mean nothing. But I think Kennedy's was important in '08, and Powell's too, coming right near the end. This year's won't mean as much, but in a real close election, it may make a tiny sliver of difference.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 October 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link
And if it infuriates John McCain, all the better.
― clemenza, Thursday, 25 October 2012 17:11 (eleven years ago) link
I think that John McCain ought to commit sepuku on the Capitol steps as a protest against Colin Powell's endorsement.
― Aimless, Thursday, 25 October 2012 18:06 (eleven years ago) link
I don't think his arms can accomplish that
― iatee, Thursday, 25 October 2012 18:07 (eleven years ago) link
gop talking point is to call o's foreign policy 'feckless' - does this test well amongst angry white people? is it dog whistling at all or am I seeing something thats not there?
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 25 October 2012 18:14 (eleven years ago) link
it just sounds a little like you're saying "fuck" and that makes angry people happy
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 25 October 2012 18:14 (eleven years ago) link
he has no more fecks to give
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 18:19 (eleven years ago) link
does this test well amongst angry white people?
It's a good question and I wouldn't be sure that it does. It's not like the economic issue, where people are holding on to conservative ideology and convinced that Obama is taxing them to the hilt. I haven't seen a lot of people angry about the fact that we haven't been more aggressive about Syria or Iran.
― timellison, Thursday, 25 October 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
mccain is quietly appealing to clash fans, fits with his romney can't fail slogan
― space dokken (Edward III), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:01 (eleven years ago) link
mccain was speaking in code to people who think that "feckless" means "dickless".
― Aimless, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:05 (eleven years ago) link
had a nightmare last night in which I was watching a tv station that was broadcasting romney's state-by-state wins on election night
― 乒乓, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:05 (eleven years ago) link
like I woke up and was like, oh, election day is still a week and a half away
― 乒乓, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:06 (eleven years ago) link
haha i had that one too the other night.
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:10 (eleven years ago) link
If we're going to have a Republican candidate, it's better that we have Establishment Romneys and "Fag" McQuains. I have a neighbor who is all "angry white guy with a gun" that he is awfully quiet about Romney. I hear that Massachusetts makes people gay.
Don't a lot of those scary white people hate establishment types?
― โตเกียวเหมียวเหมียว aka I Hate Huckabees (Mount Cleaners), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:14 (eleven years ago) link
smart take
― max, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:15 (eleven years ago) link
Oklahoma still has the best license plates. There's this one:
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1402/1186749937_d556712d25.jpg
which is a classic, but there's also this one now, apparently:
http://oklahoma4h.okstate.edu/aitc/images/cartag.jpg
― 誤訳侮辱, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:26 (eleven years ago) link
ha
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
Very similar to this horrible thing that we have in Ohio:
http://publicsafety.ohio.gov/img/beautiful_ohio_plate.png
Now we're about to get this, which is the license plate equivalent of those car with 50 bumper stickers:
http://publicsafety.ohio.gov/img/ohio_pride_plate.png
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:31 (eleven years ago) link
Great layout, too - just to the right of the first set of digits you get
LAKEERIEGLACIAOCKINGUTUGEADUSE
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
that is boss
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:33 (eleven years ago) link
I would gladly take that new Ohio plate over this:
http://www.whitecounty.net/tc/images/pics/georgia-license-plate.jpg
That's the new default plate for Georgia, where we've gone from not being as tacky as all our neighbors to out-tackying them fiftyfold.
― Bout to go Jethro TULL on that ass (Johnny Fever), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:33 (eleven years ago) link
Georgia plate looks like it should emit the smell of old lady perfume.
― joygoat, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:35 (eleven years ago) link
License plates turned into wallpaper so gradually I didn't even notice.
― Aimless, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
i think this one is pretty f rad
http://www.doyletics.com/images/64woody.jpg
i kind of like the peaches one, it reminds me of old orange crate art or something
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
Big Bear. Fall apples. German Village. Brick. Voting Ohioans must outnumber voting Floridans.
― youn, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
fruit crate art
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:37 (eleven years ago) link
They actually held a design contest, which was voted on by the public. And yes, an old lady designed the winner.
― Bout to go Jethro TULL on that ass (Johnny Fever), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
No one does it better than Nevada though
http://farm1.staticflickr.com/43/79071893_f294f73c76.jpg
― Elvis Telecom, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
h8 old ladies!
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:40 (eleven years ago) link
"Suspect's license plate reads '20150 A E=MC2'"
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ej-dionne-the-tea-partys-drubbing-in-2012/2012/10/24/185416ea-1e0e-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html
― Mordy, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:42 (eleven years ago) link
Nevada FTW
― Bout to go Jethro TULL on that ass (Johnny Fever), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:42 (eleven years ago) link
(sorry -- electoral votes -- duh)
― youn, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
The worst plates are the ones that feature a URL.
― Elvis Telecom, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
still classy:
http://www.plateshack.com/y2k/Hawaii/hi2002.jpg
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:48 (eleven years ago) link
wow the nevada mushroom cloud one, a+
'you'll get a bang out of nevada!'
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:51 (eleven years ago) link
it does radiate a certain charm
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:52 (eleven years ago) link
Not to derail the conversation from license plates, but this via my wife's friend:
The woman that cleans my house and watches the kids just got her US citizenship yesterday. It's been a LONG time coming, years and years she has been trying. She was (until yesterday!) a legal resident, pays her taxes, etc, etc. She was finally able to take the test last week, then told it would be 3 months until she was sworn in. Then all of a sudden they told her to come weds. She went and there were almost 4000 people being sworn in, given voter registrations cards, a video message from Obama, then a song with video of the country about our country and thanking the troops who have died for our freedom. Apparently there wasn't a dry eye in the house. Just in time to vote...
Just in time to vote...
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
"mccain keeps calling me feckless, and he's half right...when it comes to john mccain i don't have a feck to give." - one of the puns that would kill my political career
― da croupier, Thursday, 25 October 2012 19:59 (eleven years ago) link
OMG! They want new citizens to vote IN AN ELECTION YEAR!
― Aimless, Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
not just any citizens, but people who CLEAN HOUSES
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:02 (eleven years ago) link
Josh, great story!
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
I would like to see that Obama video tbh, could make me sentimental
― www.toilet-guru.com (silby), Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:34 (eleven years ago) link
sheesh first they want to be paid, then they want to vote?
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:38 (eleven years ago) link
lol at irony of guy who's not even a citizen welcoming people into the country
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:47 (eleven years ago) link
I'm sure they snuck Barack in there amidst the 4000 people to make him official.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:50 (eleven years ago) link
heh-heh
― dell (del), Thursday, 25 October 2012 20:51 (eleven years ago) link
uh oh
http://www.vice.com/read/is-this-obamas-kenyan-birth-video
vice has a video of obama's kenyan birth!
― reggie (qualmsley), Friday, 26 October 2012 00:00 (eleven years ago) link
first comment "super 8 film wasn't introduced until 1965, before that it was 8mm. the Kenyan flag shown in the video wasn't introduced until 1963... so next time make up a better story and get a better production designer... or at least do better research, this took all of 5 minutes for me to find"
― Fetchboy, Friday, 26 October 2012 00:03 (eleven years ago) link
― reggie (qualmsley), Friday, 26 October 2012 00:06 (eleven years ago) link
also that baby is HUGE
― max, Friday, 26 October 2012 00:16 (eleven years ago) link
gave me an idea for halloween costume: obama's birth video
― 乒乓, Friday, 26 October 2012 00:18 (eleven years ago) link
So I guess the only thing to do now is trainspot for unexpected endorsements
― Raymond Cummings, Friday, 26 October 2012 01:02 (eleven years ago) link
nah bro, allred surprise
― Matt Armstrong, Friday, 26 October 2012 01:04 (eleven years ago) link
also there will be some sort of backwards B thing
Hey, what was Trump's October surprise?
― Raymond Cummings, Friday, 26 October 2012 01:05 (eleven years ago) link
he offered 5 million to obama to release his college records
― Matt Armstrong, Friday, 26 October 2012 01:07 (eleven years ago) link
They're going to do an "O" this time, less problematic.
― nickn, Friday, 26 October 2012 01:10 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30d0jnZhWG0
I love that it's just a cell phone video.
― Elvis Telecom, Friday, 26 October 2012 01:34 (eleven years ago) link
Hmmm, Allred thing sounds like a bust to me. I think if it does anything it's less for "sketchy behavior" than for reminding the world once again that Romney is the kind of guy who pals around with super-multi-mullionaires and in fact is one himself. But that's not exactly news.
― Doctor Casino, Friday, 26 October 2012 03:33 (eleven years ago) link
Dunham video->Hannity/Rush calling her names->Backlash->Gal power
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Friday, 26 October 2012 04:00 (eleven years ago) link
Probably, yeah. We can hope.
― Raymond Cummings, Friday, 26 October 2012 04:02 (eleven years ago) link
this video is like specifically designed to get rush et al pissed at dunham and create a backlash against the same old pricks telling women what their sex lives should be like imo
― Clay, Friday, 26 October 2012 04:16 (eleven years ago) link
That book advance makes even more sense now that everyone in red states will know who she is by the weekend.
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Friday, 26 October 2012 04:18 (eleven years ago) link
You might think the US is a fat society, but in Kenya they are born big and then they become light.
― *triumphant sauce horns* (crüt), Friday, 26 October 2012 04:23 (eleven years ago) link
eventually they become airborne and disappear into the atmosphere
― space dokken (Edward III), Friday, 26 October 2012 17:24 (eleven years ago) link
― Clay, Friday, October 26, 2012 12:16 AM (13 hours ago)
campaign trolling
― space dokken (Edward III), Friday, 26 October 2012 17:25 (eleven years ago) link
omg the Obama birth video. kid comes out, holds his head upright, makes eye contact with everybody in the room. I really really really want somebody to assert that that thing's legit
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Friday, 26 October 2012 17:35 (eleven years ago) link
kid comes out, holds his head upright, makes eye contact with everybody in the room, shakes hands, asks for votes and support
― space dokken (Edward III), Friday, 26 October 2012 17:38 (eleven years ago) link
kisses self
― space dokken (Edward III), Friday, 26 October 2012 17:39 (eleven years ago) link
brushes placenta off his shoulder
― WilliamC, Friday, 26 October 2012 17:44 (eleven years ago) link
Expected effect: http://m.gawker.com/5955268/gop-accuses-obama-of-ties-to-satan-over-lena-dunham-ad
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Friday, 26 October 2012 18:27 (eleven years ago) link
Not to derail the conversation from license plates, but this via my wife's friend...I went through the citizenship ceremony.When you are approved at the interview you are told to wait for notice of the ceremony to be held two or three months later.The ceremony has the air of a celebration. Mine was in a local theater with something like 200 new citizens there with families and friends attending. A judge presides, who in my case was originally from Mexico and had his own story to tell. There was a class of children on the stage who sang songs and read essays about being American. The video of the president welcoming us was played. Everyone had to stand and pledge allegiance. The judge asked if anybody wanted to speak, someone going out into the audience with a microphone. He'd ask where they were from, how long the process had taken, etc. Hearing this is where it gets really touching. For many of these people this was a huge deal. A lot of very happy people in the room.You receive a packet containing things like the voter registration form, booklets about the US and being a citizen, and a flag. On your exit you are given your naturalization certificate and it's all done.
― fit and working again, Friday, 26 October 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
lol @ #Satan
― *triumphant sauce horns* (crüt), Friday, 26 October 2012 18:29 (eleven years ago) link
ugh @ Romney son appearance on 30 Rock. I hate when shows "address" politics by making both sides of an issue/election look like idiots
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 26 October 2012 21:16 (eleven years ago) link
you must really hate the debates then
― in norbit (n/a), Friday, 26 October 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link
BOOOOOOOOM SO TOPICAL
these debates sucked! Biden was sort of entertaining.
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 26 October 2012 21:23 (eleven years ago) link
would've been a lot better with a drunk obama or something
― Spectrum, Friday, 26 October 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
so i keep getting panicky emails that barry's been outraised by mittsy by $45 million in the final stretch. ouch
― reggie (qualmsley), Sunday, 28 October 2012 23:23 (eleven years ago) link
God dammit me too.
― Jeff, Sunday, 28 October 2012 23:25 (eleven years ago) link
money doesn't matter at this point
― iatee, Sunday, 28 October 2012 23:35 (eleven years ago) link
you mean like 'in this economy'you mean like cute american children playing w stacks of devalued dollars on the street
― *buffs lens* (schlump), Monday, 29 October 2012 02:10 (eleven years ago) link
As in, "I'm working on an answer song to Randy Newman."
― clemenza, Monday, 29 October 2012 02:24 (eleven years ago) link
hey i know brad plumer!
― well if it isn't old 11 cameras simon (gbx), Monday, 29 October 2012 15:35 (eleven years ago) link
and, Senator, you are no...oh wait
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 29 October 2012 15:37 (eleven years ago) link
I tried phone-banking yesterday and remembered why I hated it so much. Spiked my anxiety levels. I'm far better as a tech support and logistics guy or even a canvasser than being on the telephonic front line.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Monday, 29 October 2012 16:40 (eleven years ago) link
"That's got to be troubling for Romney," McDonald said. "Election Day would have to be a Republican parade for Romney to win (Iowa)"
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans
― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
I don't think early voting stats matter all that much tbh.
― Gukbe, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
well they matter in that people whove already voted cant change their mind, so if youre behind when early voting starts then its harder for you to come back than it would be w/o early voting
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
i early voted today btw
so thats one vote for obma sry mitt romney
also if youve voted then that eliminates the chance you wont vote
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:43 (eleven years ago) link
yeah it doesn't mean 'obama wins iowa' but it's a signal of gotv strength
― iatee, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:44 (eleven years ago) link
is there any reason to suspect early vote would be non-representative or skewed democrat in iowa?
― flopson, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:49 (eleven years ago) link
seems to be the case but i wonder why
In Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, Obama banked so many early votes in 2008 that he won those states even though he ran behind in each in votes cast on Election Day itself, according to voting data compiled by the Associated Press.
― flopson, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:50 (eleven years ago) link
democrats just trying harder to get people to vote early prob
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:51 (eleven years ago) link
dems pushed early voting harder + just a bigger gotv machine + obv more enthusiasm last time xp
― iatee, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:53 (eleven years ago) link
there's an inherent interest in it for dems because their base is less likely to vote regardless
― iatee, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:54 (eleven years ago) link
k cool
― flopson, Tuesday, 30 October 2012 20:57 (eleven years ago) link
Even if you get hit by a bus before Election Day. That's why I like early voting -- the potential to influence earthly events from beyond the grave.
― something of an astrological coup (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 21:00 (eleven years ago) link
surprised zombie voting parties haven't caught on already
― Victory Goon (some dude), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 21:01 (eleven years ago) link
So Romney will probably take Florida, huh?
― O-Jah Da Lionmane (longneck), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 21:06 (eleven years ago) link
Probably. Miami-Dade, Broward, and Hillsborough just ain't enough.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 21:07 (eleven years ago) link
there's a 64.7% chance, I'd say
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Tuesday, 30 October 2012 21:07 (eleven years ago) link
god i'm just getting panicked
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:36 (eleven years ago) link
need a hug?
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:37 (eleven years ago) link
this minnesota detour headfake is pretty weird
i'm chalking it up to the eastern seaboard & rust belt being air-traffic-jammed, tbh
heinous traffic outside the music shop where i take guitar lessons last night. apparently paul ryan was doing a thing in the republican-owned (?) bar across the street. heavy SUVs and secret service everywhere.
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:40 (eleven years ago) link
what bar is that so i can avoid it in the future
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
o'gara's!
they also hosted a big yes-on-voter-id blowout a month ago
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:51 (eleven years ago) link
oh yeah haha well it wont be hard to avoid that place since i fucking hate it anyway.
taking a stand!
― I'M THE ONLY ON (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
LOL, never been in there. Never will be.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:56 (eleven years ago) link
o'garas - all the charm of an applebees with food to match
― goatee-framed sphincter-mouth (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:59 (eleven years ago) link
now bigot friendly!
― goatee-framed sphincter-mouth (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:00 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.ogaras.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Serving-Our-Troops.jpeg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:01 (eleven years ago) link
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 11:37 AM (34 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
YES
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:11 (eleven years ago) link
oh god ok fuck o'garas
hated that place anyway
is martin zeller still a thing?
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:12 (eleven years ago) link
i think so? hes actually a decent dude, so i cant really blame him for cash grabbing for years there, even if it does have the cool factor of having a residency at a low-rent bubba gump shrimp factory
― goatee-framed sphincter-mouth (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:13 (eleven years ago) link
yeah i figured he was ok and all. i actually still love the first gear daddies album.
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:17 (eleven years ago) link
My brother was one-third of a Rush tribute band at this establishment.
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:25 (eleven years ago) link
2112: A Tribute to Rush?
also i still need a reassuring hug
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:29 (eleven years ago) link
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mc2cjgvulV1rrzs39.gif
― Sug ban (Nicole), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:32 (eleven years ago) link
aw thx
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:32 (eleven years ago) link
OK, google tells me he played keyboards with Exit Stage Right.
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:36 (eleven years ago) link
haha i've been hunting thru political donation tracker sites to get something definitive on the o'gara's ownerhsip but coming up blank. i don't want to besmirch the place out of hand, but, it is kind of a terrible bar and the evidence so far isn't good, imo.
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:48 (eleven years ago) link
Wait, I think I have it mixed up in my head with Alary's.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:50 (eleven years ago) link
Either way, not somewhere I'm likely headed.
Daily Kos piece pointing out that it's been almost three weeks since Romney gave an interview and more than a month since he answered a single question from the reporters that travel with him. He can't, obviously. He can't answer questions about his auto industry claims and now he can't answer about FEMA either.
― timellison, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:51 (eleven years ago) link
ha alarys is a different but also awful shithole.
― goatee-framed sphincter-mouth (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 17:53 (eleven years ago) link
2-party shitstem politricks
― am0n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:00 (eleven years ago) link
i'm not american and i am starting to be quite nervous about this.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:09 (eleven years ago) link
You have my personal promise that Romney will not win.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:33 (eleven years ago) link
recent polls out today aren't looking too good for obama
― all mods con (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:35 (eleven years ago) link
lol whatever
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:36 (eleven years ago) link
like this one?
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/marquette-poll-obama-leads-wisconsin.php
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:36 (eleven years ago) link
be a man and post a link or stfu
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/31/nate-silver-and-the-forecasting-consensus-in-one-chart/
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
but that's from twelve whole hours ago so you never know
in the last 12 hours three undecideds in Idaho moved into the Romney camp.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
haha you guys aren't any fun
― all mods con (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:42 (eleven years ago) link
I got some applesauce for ya, baby.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:43 (eleven years ago) link
it's been almost three weeks since Romney gave an interview and more than a month since he answered a single question from the reporters that travel with him. He can't, obviously. He can't answer questions about his auto industry claims and now he can't answer about FEMA either.
is this getting traction in the MSM/ cable news? seems like a p big deal to me if Romney won't answer questions from the reporters traveling with him
― it's smdh time in America (will), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
Staging donations?
Empty-handed supporters pled for entrance, with one woman asking, “What if we dropped off our donations up front?”
The volunteer gestured toward a pile of groceries conveniently stacked near the candidate. “Just grab something,” he said.
Two teenage boys retrieved a jar of peanut butter each, and got in line. When it was their turn, they handed their “donations” to Romney. He took them, smiled, and offered an earnest “Thank you.”
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:53 (eleven years ago) link
keeping it classy
― goatee-framed sphincter-mouth (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 18:54 (eleven years ago) link
are all these stories about Romney's staged events just popping up on the online newsources, or are they getting reported on in any of the big msm outlets?
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:00 (eleven years ago) link
Saw a bit on NBC news last night on the Romney Storm Related Event. No mention whatsoever of the Red Cross' thanks-but-no-thanks response to food donations.
― 5-Hour Enmity (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:05 (eleven years ago) link
The big three are too afraid to appear biased these days, even if that means ignoring a whole bunch of stuff that's absolutely true.
― Johnny Fever, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
Forget answering questions about the auto industry or taxes or whatever bullshit. Romney still hasn't explained the fundamental operation of his mystery budget plan. His entire secret economic platform hinges on vague promises.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:10 (eleven years ago) link
I was waiting for the Red Cross punchline in that NBC report, but it never came. Beyond being journalistically irresponsible, it also tacitly encouraged people to make donations to the Red Cross that the Red Cross neither needs nor wants.
― 5-Hour Enmity (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:11 (eleven years ago) link
maybe he can deliver the unwanted food to them on the unwanted ships he builds for the navy
― goatee-framed sphincter-mouth (jjjusten), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:23 (eleven years ago) link
Haven't kept up today--did Romney get hammered on his FEMA statements from the debate?
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:32 (eleven years ago) link
Nate Silver still has Obama up with ~77% to take the electoral college, the only thing that actually matters.
Late game polling that shows dead heats is, IMO, mostly a way for cable news to drum up ratings.
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:34 (eleven years ago) link
Also their probably not polling people who have cast early ballots, which I'd imagine takes out a big chunk of Obama supporters who have already voted for Obama...
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:35 (eleven years ago) link
*they're... the ineffable THEM!
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:36 (eleven years ago) link
this is a lot of bad polls for Romney in a hurry it seems like
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:37 (eleven years ago) link
early voting has been split pretty evenly i think
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:39 (eleven years ago) link
conservatives flipping out at silver/poll aggregation are of course losing it hard, but let me put it in perspective anyway
if i gave you only 70-75% chance of keeping your job past next week, would you not say you were in significant danger of getting canned? i mean, shit. romney's course is uphill but his chances aren't bad at all.
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
A couple weeks ago I saw a stat that said ~80 of early voters were young voters, women, african-americans, latinos or a combination of those demographics... But I guess those were the real early-bird early voters. Still accounted for like 3 million votes.
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:42 (eleven years ago) link
really interested to see what Silver does to the percentage after these polls though
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:43 (eleven years ago) link
if i gave you only 70-75% chance of keeping your job past next week, would you not say you were in significant danger of getting canned?
yes because i understand basic statistics and probability
― congratulations (n/a), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
hahaha was just gonna say
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
i was having trouble forming a response to that
'job security' for elected officials and everyone else is apples and oranges, h8 when people throw around those analogies as if they're meaningful
― push iatee (some dude), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:45 (eleven years ago) link
well right, i was just trying to give that % chance something other than "it must be a huge lie"
― goole, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:47 (eleven years ago) link
his chances of winning are pretty bad though
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
What are you talking about, Romney has a better chance of winning this than 99.9% of all people ever!
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:54 (eleven years ago) link
I started thinking about Silver's 70-30 split in terms of baseball. Or even 75-25; if a lifetime .250 hitter gets a hit, you're not shocked or anything. So low probability, yes (if Silver's right, and I'm sure he is), but Romney winning would be like Curtis Granderson getting a hit, or flipping two consecutive heads.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
Doping might account for recent Romney gains.
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:56 (eleven years ago) link
Taking Sides: Mitt Romney or Curtis Granderson
― Sug ban (Nicole), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
If Silver moves to 80/20, then we're into Mario Mendoza/Adam Dunn territory, and yes, it's a shock when those guys get a hit.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
oh good – baseball talk!
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:58 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah except even great hitters only get a hit 30-35% of the time so really that's not a good comparison.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:58 (eleven years ago) link
Flawed, agreed. Let's not agitate Alfred any further.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 19:59 (eleven years ago) link
I like thinkign about romney's VORP
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
baseball averages aren't exactly the same thing as probabilities either
― max, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:02 (eleven years ago) link
They vary from year to year--.280 one year, .310 the next--so they're different that way, but as a snapshot, aren't they the same? If a .250 hitter steps to the plate after a large enough sample of at-bats, doesn't he have a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit?
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
2 possible ways to visualize/make intuitive a 70% chance of winning
-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3-> on election day, God rolls a 10-sided die (7 sides obama, 3 sides romney)
― flopson, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
Same thing. If Romney wins 3 out of every 10 days, a win on any one day wouldn't be shocking.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:07 (eleven years ago) link
i love that this has taken a baseball turn now.
no, a .250 average doesn't mean that a player has a 1 in 4 chance of getting a hit, because walks don't count toward it, sacrifice flies don't, etc
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:07 (eleven years ago) link
I like to think of it as 10 parallel scifi universes, stuff happens that makes romney win 3 of them
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
i prefer to think of it as Romney has a 70% chance of losing
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:08 (eleven years ago) link
that's not a bad way of putting it (xpost)
― push iatee (some dude), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
we will figure out which one of those scifi universes we live in soon, but there are currently some unknowns like things that will happen over the week, the gotv, base motivation, maybe there were some polling biases - if we already knew all those things right now we would know which scifi universe we live in, but if you consider what we do know it's more likely that we live in one of those 7 than one of the other 3
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:09 (eleven years ago) link
Obama is like The Artist, and Romney is Hugo.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
Okay--1 in 4 on a ball that's either a hit or out. Less if you count all possible outcomes. Anyway, my main point is that if it's a 75% chance of Obama winning, a Romney win would be somewhat surprising but not even close to shocking.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:11 (eleven years ago) link
ftr i understand statistics but a romney win would shock me to the core
― flopson, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
i'm fuzzy on this but iirc all models hope to approximate true randomness (the die thing), that's the only time where statistics work, and its still a ratio in aggregate, how close baseball averages or nate silver get to true randomness is a question for statistics. xposts
― Neutral Coliseums (Matt P), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
actually silvers model is prob based on simulations (the 10 days thing)
― flopson, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
-> on election day, God rolls a 10-sided die (7 sides obama, 3 sides romney)― flopson
If we're gonna go the AD&D route, we have to consider modifiers. Does God have to roll a Sandy response check and add a +1 incumbent mod?
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:13 (eleven years ago) link
yeah silver runs like 100,000 simulations for his numbers
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:14 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1178383!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_370/image.jpg
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:14 (eleven years ago) link
Probably because you've seen Mitt Romney speaking, and thinking, and laughing, and doing other Mitt Romney things. The numbers can never adequately contain his Mitt Romneyness.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:15 (eleven years ago) link
xp LOL at Obama being drawn w/ classic evil cartoon eyes.
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:19 (eleven years ago) link
tbh i think sandy is going to give obes even more of a poll boost in key states before tuesday.
― sug ones (omar little), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:22 (eleven years ago) link
OBES
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:25 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.zillow.com/blog/files/2011/12/Lagasse_Photo.jpg
― balls, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
http://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gifBREAKINGhttp://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gif
http://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gifNATE SILVER CHERRY-PICKING DATA, SAYS, "YES, I AM DELIBERATELY CHERRY-PICKING"http://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gif
http://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gifhttp://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gifhttp://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gif
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:26 (eleven years ago) link
8th paragraph down
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/oct-30-what-state-polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote/?hp
of course i'm totally being a facetious smartass but still he might not want to use those words when the barbarians are at the gate
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:27 (eleven years ago) link
Do I cherry-pick myself?Very well; I cherry-pick myself
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
is it really that hard to understand what "70% chance of winning" means? do we as adults really need (flawed) baseball and d&d comparisons to make this more intuitive?
― congratulations (n/a), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:28 (eleven years ago) link
it's actually not intuitive at all! people don't naturally think in probabilities
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:30 (eleven years ago) link
BREAKING
NATE SILVER SAYS IT CERTAINLY COULD TURN OUT TO BE THE CASE THAT THE STATE POLLS ARE SYSTEMATICALLY BIASED AGAINST ROMNEY
http://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gifWOO WOOO WOO WOO WOO WOO - WOOOooooooOOOooooooOOOOoooo - WOOWOOWOOWOOOWOOWOOhttp://cdn.dealbreaker.com/uploads/2011/05/drudge-siren.gif
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
But perhaps national polls tell the right story of the race instead — meaning that the state polls systematically overrate Mr. Obama’s standing?It’s certainly possible. (It keeps me up late at night.)
It’s certainly possible. (It keeps me up late at night.)
NATE SILVER'S BAMBOOZLING OF DATA KEEPS HIM UP LATE AT NIGHT FILM AT 11
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
I hope Shakey will join me in dancing on Drudge's grave when the inevitable aneurism finally claims him
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:32 (eleven years ago) link
NATE SILVER'S VOICE IS HIGH AND HIS ARMS ARE SKINNY
WOOWOOWOOOWOOOWOO-WoooooOOOOOOOooooooOOOOOoWOOWOOWOOWOOOWOO
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:32 (eleven years ago) link
i'm assuming you all make the same sound effect when you see the drudge sirens
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:33 (eleven years ago) link
can we really trust a gay man's statistics in a straight man's world?
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:33 (eleven years ago) link
at this point the only drama nate can generate is drama over the validity of his figures. it's in the interest of his page views to say things like "i cherry pick data come at me mouth breathers"
― Mordy, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:36 (eleven years ago) link
do we as adults really need (flawed) ... d&d comparisons
fyi my dice comparison was not flawed maybe *you* need to brush up on your probabilities
― flopson, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
he's talking about cherry-picking the examples for that one blog post, not the data for his model
― ciderpress, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:37 (eleven years ago) link
"(flawed)" was only intended to modify the baseball part of the sentence, it was poorly phrased and i apologize
― congratulations (n/a), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:43 (eleven years ago) link
This should be renamed to the Nate Silver thread.
― Jeff, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:51 (eleven years ago) link
he casts a shadow like pitchfork on ilm threads
― push iatee (some dude), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:52 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/a-bayesian-take-on-julian-assange/ seems legit
― zvookster, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:53 (eleven years ago) link
haha someone linked to that the other day. wtf nate.
― max, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 20:54 (eleven years ago) link
OBAMANIA: THE GATHERING
― Raymond Cummings, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:01 (eleven years ago) link
i.e. man this thread got weird
only on the internet: "to make this more understandable to the common man, imagine rolling a d10..."
― Doctor Casino, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:08 (eleven years ago) link
On intuition vs probability, my favorite illustration is the Monty Hall Problem. You can make people do the math themselves, and they still won't believe it.
― something of an astrological coup (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:08 (eleven years ago) link
Obama hasn't tapped enough mana to be able to bring out his Wall of Dem GOTV, and his Biden artifact hasn't done much to stop Romney's endless supply of Rethuglican Imps. He should have used a different deck, IMO...
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:17 (eleven years ago) link
No surprise that Obama is using a rainbow deck, nor Romney sticking to a straight red one. His Rovian Dragon was surprisingly ineffective though...
― Frobisher the (Viceroy), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:19 (eleven years ago) link
Now, if we want to examine this from a GURPS lens....
ok I'll stop now.
GURPS ironically well suited to simulating political fights.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:27 (eleven years ago) link
I'm not especially math-geeky, but Silver's probabilities make great sense to me in that he's not really stating the probability of a win or a loss for each candidate so much as he is evaluating the probability that the state-by-state polls are exactly correct, or if the actual voting outcome will fall to one side or the other of the polls' margins of error, then he is synthesizing all these probabilities in terms of electoral college outcomes, and finally correlating these electoral college outcomes with the win for either candidate.
So long as the polling margins of error allow a way for Romney to amass 270+ electoral college votes, there is a non-zero chance for Romney to win. At this time, that non-zero chance is roughly 22.6%, according to Silver's models. iow, that would be the quantum state of the election, if the election were Schrodinger's Cat.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:30 (eleven years ago) link
did the numbers move apart dramatically in '08 (or '10 I guess)? I would assume that the percentages snowball as you get closer without any movement towards the underdog.
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:32 (eleven years ago) link
Obama basically never lost a 4+ (at least) point lead after September.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:36 (eleven years ago) link
I mean in nate's model did it go from like 80 to 95% in the last week or so?
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:36 (eleven years ago) link
As I understand it, because the announced margins of error of the polls do not change as the election nears, if the polls theoretically kept producing unchanged results week after week, Nate's "win percentages" probably would stay static, too.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:42 (eleven years ago) link
fwiw both votamatic and the princeton guy have obama at 90%+ to win, kinda curious where nates 25% is coming from, theres def not that much chance the polls will move to romney win in the next week, a lot of it has to be mistrusting the polls or some other mysterious thing
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:52 (eleven years ago) link
he hides behind flowers
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 21:53 (eleven years ago) link
nate's model includes non-poll economic measurements that 'predict the future' but that is slowly removed from the model as the election approaches. so even if the polls stay the same his numbers would be changing.
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:02 (eleven years ago) link
but that is = but that are
ya but theres a week to go so that stuff shouldnt factor anymore
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:10 (eleven years ago) link
I mean the economy is not going to shift between now and the election
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:11 (eleven years ago) link
is that last job report supposed to come out friday? will nate silver have time to cook those numbers too?
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:12 (eleven years ago) link
just put the numbers in a pot nate
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:13 (eleven years ago) link
btw we are on a first name basis w this guy now
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5. #notthatcomplicated
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:15 (eleven years ago) link
― flopson, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:16 (eleven years ago) link
I know this will be shot down immediately by three or four of you, but I was wondering if that final jobs report could have a marginal effect if it were at one extreme or the other--say, +200,000 or in the red. If it's where it probably will be, in that +50,000 - +125,000 range, no effect. But would an extreme number be enough to affect a very close state?
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:21 (eleven years ago) link
its less the 'effect' and more that positive economic data suggests that people were gonna vote for the incumbent cause their lives were going better
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:23 (eleven years ago) link
I think there's some disagreement about this, but imo job numbers are more of an index of what people are feeling in their personal lives than a number that actually sways people. I think the report is mostly priced into ppl's already existing opinions + poll responses before jobs report even comes out. ymmv etc
― Mordy, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:26 (eleven years ago) link
pretty sure our economy is going back into the shitter after the election since the eurozone has unemployment up to 11% due to their awesome deficit cut to prosperity plan.
dont tell anyone tho.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:27 (eleven years ago) link
I mean good news is good news and bad news is bad news but the type of people who can tell you what a job report means also are not undecided voters in Ohio. I mean maybe like 3 of them or something. but just think back to the town hall meeting and ask yourself if those people know what the last jobs report number was.xp
― iatee, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:29 (eleven years ago) link
***vizualizes***
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:34 (eleven years ago) link
The guy who got together with his co-workers to come up with the question on Libya: he knew.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:35 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, the people that pay attention to job reports are unlikely to favor this one over the past 4 years' reports, and the people that don't pay attention will continue to not pay attention.
― nickn, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:52 (eleven years ago) link
― iatee, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 6:29 PM (25 minutes ago)
actually no news is good news
― all mods con (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:56 (eleven years ago) link
i just voted-- maybe i shoulda waited for the jobs report.
― too soon (Hunt3r), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 22:58 (eleven years ago) link
This is great (via Salon):
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Chris-Christie-Welcomes-President-to-the-Post-Obama-Era
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:44 (eleven years ago) link
it's been almost three weeks since Romney gave an interview and more than a month since he answered a single question from the reporters that travel with him. He can't, obviously. He can't answer questions about his auto industry claims and now he can't answer about FEMA either.is this getting traction in the MSM/ cable news? seems like a p big deal to me if Romney won't answer questions from the reporters traveling with him― it's smdh time in America (will), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (4 hours ago)
― it's smdh time in America (will), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (4 hours ago)
Watched some of the network news yesterday and it was mostly storm coverage, so no mention of the fact that he was asked 11 times if he would still de-fund FEMA and ignored it each time. I'm guessing the Biden challenge on the auto industry claims might make the news tonight.
― timellison, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:45 (eleven years ago) link
car companies themselves pushing back seems p noteworthy
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:50 (eleven years ago) link
― clemenza, mercredi 31 octobre 2012 23:44 (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
someone please tell me this bullfeces
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:51 (eleven years ago) link
Romney’s lead in the national polls may appear small, but it is likely much more significant, since the electorate that shows up on Tuesday will include proportionally fewer Democrats than most polls have assumed thus far.
Conservatives are beginning to understand that, though few will say so openly, for fear of encouraging complacency among voters, or tempting superstition.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:52 (eleven years ago) link
xp you gotta be kidding me?
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:52 (eleven years ago) link
polls dont assume a gop/dem split they just call people
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:54 (eleven years ago) link
I love the "You shouldn't put too much stock in their predictions...because I HAVE A PREDICTION TOO!" rhetorical style that is so popular in election season
― push iatee (some dude), Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:57 (eleven years ago) link
Here's the key paragraph from the Christie piece:
But the truth about Christie’s outreach to Obama is blindingly obvious: Mitt Romney is now running away with this election, freeing Christie to praise the president without fear that doing so will tip the scales. (Followed by Mordy's quote.)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 31 October 2012 23:59 (eleven years ago) link
will include proportionally fewer Democrats than most polls have assumed thus far.
Mitt Romney is now running away with this election
I read these sorts of pronouncement and I begin to fear that the invisible voters may steal this election, yet.
― Aimless, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:00 (eleven years ago) link
"Christie... will tip the scales."
― Clay, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:02 (eleven years ago) link
I think there's a chance Obama will drop Biden for Christie over the weekend.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:02 (eleven years ago) link
Conservatives are beginning to understand that, though few will say so openly
lolllllllllllll
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:03 (eleven years ago) link
aahahahahah "running away" is just pure candyland stuff, I would buy "race has tightened" and, much more plausibly "race has tightened but not enough to matter and the biggest tightening has been specifically in states where it doesn't matter" but "running away with the election," come on, dude needs to be a man and post some links or, etc
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:03 (eleven years ago) link
romney has literally been losing this election absolutely the entire time
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:04 (eleven years ago) link
obama to hire Christie as whitehouse bipartisan carer in chief and giver of worlds best hugs
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:06 (eleven years ago) link
how are these people going to feel if/when obama wins? are they just going to straight up have psychotic breaks?
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:06 (eleven years ago) link
conspiracyville
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:08 (eleven years ago) link
It's going to be really ugly. If you dig into conservativeland comment threads there's essentially nobody who believes the election is even competitive. They're not going to believe an Obama victory is remotely legitimate. It'll be a fun four years!
― Clay, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:10 (eleven years ago) link
i'm probably one of the young one here and i'm wondering: was the level of anomosity between republicans and democrats that high before?
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:11 (eleven years ago) link
they thought bill clinton murdered dudes over small time land deals
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:14 (eleven years ago) link
to enter a conspiracyville of my own i wonder to what extent some of these punditsorwhatever actually believe that romney is "running away w the race" and to what extent if any they are consciously preparing to radicalize people.
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:15 (eleven years ago) link
The illegitimacy of Obama's presidency is manifest to far right reactionaries because how could a traitor who is destroying the republic be legitimate? They know he is a traitor who is destroying the republic because anyone who disagrees with them is a traitor who is destroying the republic. And he's black.
― Aimless, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:15 (eleven years ago) link
Conspiracy aside, the Christie thing is, for at least a day, just one big distraction for Romney in terms of media coverage. They've been going on about it all night on CNN.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:21 (eleven years ago) link
Mind you, they'd probably be on Romney over the FEMA thing otherwise, so maybe it's not so bad.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:22 (eleven years ago) link
No, but largely because the current shitstorm is more about Republican animosity towards our uppity Democratic president.
― Come Into My Layer (Old Lunch), Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:37 (eleven years ago) link
I think you can say a certain % of this is race related but it really is easy to forget to what extent republicans hated bill clinton
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:39 (eleven years ago) link
And what makes it worse for GOP diehards is that Bill gets to be all elder statesman/campaign rallier/etc now, maintaining an actual wide popularity. And in contrast W is... *shrug*
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:42 (eleven years ago) link
I mean, can you imagine W being back in 2016 in that capacity? Or later? Fuck no.
― Ned Raggett, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:43 (eleven years ago) link
ISTR Clinton getting all kinds of partisan abuse for apparently being a cracker with extravagant appetites, Lady Macbeth for a wife and a Bingo lady for a mother.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:50 (eleven years ago) link
it's easier to like a guy when his political career is over cf also reagan + democratic party
― Mordy, Thursday, 1 November 2012 00:57 (eleven years ago) link
they don't have to like him, they just don't benefit anymore from demonizing him (reagan, clinton)
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 01:01 (eleven years ago) link
Van: let's just say that the 2004 campaign was mildly bitter.
― Raymond Cummings, Thursday, 1 November 2012 01:33 (eleven years ago) link
Demonizing Dubya should pay dividends for at least as long as it has for Jimmy Carter, if there is justice in this world.
― Aimless, Thursday, 1 November 2012 01:39 (eleven years ago) link
Christie - "one big distraction."
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:32 (eleven years ago) link
I am personally disappointed by obama's unwillingness to constantly demonize and blame dubya for the country's problems
― running like a young deer (symsymsym), Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:46 (eleven years ago) link
hopefully in ~30 years the democratic party will not be trying tie the republican presidential candidate to GWB
― Mordy, Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:48 (eleven years ago) link
hopefully in 30 years the DEMOCRAT Party will tie the GOP prez candidate to Reagan.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:49 (eleven years ago) link
Going back upthread to the whole "running away with the election" doohickey, it's just circular bias. These righties insist the data shows Romney's winning. When he loses (which he will), they will say obviously there was fraud because the data showed he was way ahead. When you point out that it did not they will merely point to Rasmussen which was oh so amazing in 2008 and all the others are biased. It's best to not argue with people who were likely conceived at an L.A. Guns concert.
On the topic of Rasmussen, their slanted polling is getting ridiculous. They are currently the ONLY State Poll that shows Romney ahead in Ohio...and by TWO PERCENT. Every other poll has Obama ahead by at least two (except one newspaper, that had it tied). They also are (according to the Infamous dickbiscuits at Breitbart.com) now predicting an Electoral victory for Romney, making them the only aggregate site to do so. Bring this up, and they will claim it is ALL THE OTHER POLLS that are biased. Tell them it is Rasmussen that is proven to be right-leaning, and they will deny it, even if you bring up the fact that Scott Rasmussen wrote for Conservative rag World Net Daily in the early 2000s (Seriously, Nate Silver gets shit for the fact that he's an Obama supporter that aggregates poll data that favors Obama, but Rasmussen gets nothing for being a GUY WHO WROTE CONSERVATIVE ARTICLES AND PUBLISHING POLLS???!!!)
so yeah...let themselves Rage themselves out on Election Day, enjoy it as Schadenfreude. I may create a Schadenfreude twitter account and Twitter all the Butthurt live.
― NINO CARTER, Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:52 (eleven years ago) link
nice turn of phrase
― Infamous dickbiscuits (silby), Thursday, 1 November 2012 03:22 (eleven years ago) link
East side,West sideMe and Mamie O'RourkeTweeted the butt-hurt li-iveOn the sidewalks of New York
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 03:24 (eleven years ago) link
@GovChristie I want to thank the President personally for all his assistance as w recover from the storm.
“@GovChristie: I have confidence that we will have support from the President and federal authorities. #Sandy”
“@GovChristie: I don't give a damn about Election Day after what has happened here. I am worried about the people of New Jersey. #Sandy”
“@GovChristie: On conf call with POTUS discussing post-Sandy cleanup efforts in partnership with the feds. He is instructing Gov't to lean forward to help.”
“@GovChristie: Here with President Obama at the Brigantine shelter. http://t.co/pkei2eJA”
“@whitehouse: Photo: On Marine One, President Obama & @GovChristie survey the damage done by Hurricane #Sandy along New Jersey coast: http://t.co/l3nIu7ht”
“@GovChristie: President Obama made it clear to me today that it is his top priority to help New Jersey get back to normal. As it is mine.”
“@GovChristie: The President came to New Jersey today to offer his help and I accept that help and appreciate his good will.”
“@GovChristie: When it comes to getting things done, I don't care what party someone is in. The responsibility I have is much bigger than politics.”
“@GovChristie: Pictures from my tour of hurricane damage with President Obama today. #Sandy http://t.co/QN8VKMbL”
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 04:15 (eleven years ago) link
christie, sweaty, passionate
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Thursday, 1 November 2012 04:20 (eleven years ago) link
― congratulations (n/a), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 8:28 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― iatee, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 8:30 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
for 1 time events, this is otm. he publishes percentages (i.e. "frequentist" statistics) for the betting markets set, but really he's a guy who knows better, and he should be publishing posterior distributions and talking in bayesian language all the time.
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 11:09 (eleven years ago) link
avb out
― but with socks instead of football (darraghmac), Thursday, 1 November 2012 11:22 (eleven years ago) link
speaking of betting markets how much $ have you made on my intrade advice caek??
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 11:59 (eleven years ago) link
i am currently up about $28. looks like i sold romney at pretty much the exact top of his market.
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 12:08 (eleven years ago) link
It's best to not argue with people who were likely conceived at an L.A. Guns concert.
simultaneous lol & middle finger
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Thursday, 1 November 2012 12:37 (eleven years ago) link
I rolled my eyes and then I remembered when I saw Poison at the Cap Centre in Landover, Maryland in 1988 when I was 13, I saw a couple openly having sex in full view of everyone and theoretically that could have resulted in a baby who would be voting in a few days.
― Walter Galt, Thursday, 1 November 2012 13:56 (eleven years ago) link
if it makes you feel any better, I'm voting for Obama
― some dude, Thursday, 1 November 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Thursday, 1 November 2012 14:08 (eleven years ago) link
today in the war on our friend nate silver http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/todays-war-on-nate-silver-quiet-flows-the-don-edition.html
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:01 (eleven years ago) link
Proof that Romney is already doing good things for the economy.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link
OF ENGLAND
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:15 (eleven years ago) link
GERMANY ACTUALLY
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:21 (eleven years ago) link
I was torn on which to go with tbh, England seemed funnier
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:24 (eleven years ago) link
i think your instincts were solid
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:25 (eleven years ago) link
Wanted to post this long quote (somebody named Gelman, via Sullivan) because it's exactly the point I was making yesterday. (Sorry if someone's already linked).
I can simultaneously (a) accept that Obama has a 72 percent chance of winning and (b) say the election is too close to call. What if the weatherman told you there was a 30 percent chance of rain — would you be shocked if it rained that day? No. To put it another way, suppose Mitt Romney pulls out 51 percent of the popular vote and wins the election. That doesn’t mean that Nate Silver skews the polls (as is suggested by this repulsive article at Examiner.com, which, among other things, criticizes Silver for being thin and having a soft voice). Romney winning the election with 51 percent of the vote is well within the margin of error, as Silver clearly indicates. That’s what too close to call is all about.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:27 (eleven years ago) link
gelman is a statistician who does a lot of polisci stuff and he has a good blog
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:30 (eleven years ago) link
it's true in a v limited way of thinking, like maybe it's too close to call but not too close to put a probability on, one tells you something the other nothing
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:32 (eleven years ago) link
another way of looking at it is one way would help you win at poker, the other not so much
Everyone take a nap for the next 5 days.
― Jeff, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:33 (eleven years ago) link
Great idea.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:33 (eleven years ago) link
gelman's better critique in another post was that as far as these sorta conceptual probabilities go, 538 is probably being *too* precise and rounding to the nearest 10% would be less confusing
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:34 (eleven years ago) link
omg imagine the seizures when the prediction flipped from 60 to 50%
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:36 (eleven years ago) link
and in this case the only poker here is intrade or whatever. but as far as just understanding what's going on 72% vs 73% doesn't help people and can be deceiving in a sense.
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:37 (eleven years ago) link
yeah I thought of that too, when you round to the nearest 10% people misinterpret things in the other direction.
it helps show the movement over time, if maybe not day to day
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:38 (eleven years ago) link
and it would be way less fun to check every day
I think he should just do it like the homeland security alert system, 5 colors
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:39 (eleven years ago) link
top threat level soviet red
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:40 (eleven years ago) link
I'm guessing the actual results will be slightly better for Obama than the raw polls indicate because a lot of them don't include households without a landline -- missing a lot of the under-30 voters, who don't turn out to the polls as much as others, but who lean Democratic. (I believe 538 takes this into account but I'm not sure.)
― abanana, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:51 (eleven years ago) link
the odds of Romney winning goes down the more he says things like this:
http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/10/31/romney-compares-sandy-relief-to-cleaning-up-after-high-school-football-game/
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:59 (eleven years ago) link
I saw that last night while watching Last Word (ugh, Lawrence O'Donnell) because nothing else was on. Was hoping some other media outlet would pick up on it so I don't have to link to his page.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:02 (eleven years ago) link
(xpost) I imagine the world Romney carries around in his head looks a lot like this:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__hspjzfC024/TDLdWOX1uMI/AAAAAAAABd0/FzCfyhWzQYA/s1600/pleasantville-Islam.jpg
Which I sort of understand--the one in my own head looks something like this:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/auteurs_production/images/film/dazed-and-confused/w448/dazed-and-confused.jpg?1337960424
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
the world in my head looks like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXT6KrX-PF4
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
"What World Do You Carry Around in Your Head?"
http://www.springfieldfiles.com/albums/food/0229.JPG
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:27 (eleven years ago) link
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQiZhghc1d3tWt0yjX1EbUYUoM5iaf6istSZIwzWQWaVEjLhw8Q9Q
― Sug ban (Nicole), Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
^^ good idea, but needs its own thread. not here, plz.
― Aimless, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
Doesn't one big statistically misread involve the overwhelming, almost exclusive support Obama has among blacks and Latinos? I could have sworn I read something about how the various models have trouble with political data that anomalously skewed.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxMD02zU9SE
mittens getting ruffled by a (quite conservative, iirc) iowa radio host about his political waffling vis-a-vis the stance of the mormon church on abortion
― j., Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
holy crap
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
wait what the hell?
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:46 (eleven years ago) link
would love to see the setup/context for that, it seems like mitt just starts shouting like crazy for no reason but OMG this guy is a basketcase, really bizarre next to that "silent statue of jello while crowd shouts down global warming protester"
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:46 (eleven years ago) link
O_o Kinda shows why Mitt hasn't really talked religion much on the campaign trail.
― Sex Kitten mind control slave (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:48 (eleven years ago) link
OMG this guy is a basketcase
hey how the fuck else are you supposed to hold all that shit together
― j., Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
the pacing!
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
Video is from 07?
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:51 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MRbIwshAvU
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:52 (eleven years ago) link
this is an odd thing to only see NOW
xxpost Really? Wow. Can't believe it hasn't been passed around more, it's just...the blowsy short-tempered bullying quality of it, it's this glimpse into the board-room hardman Mitt that we got teeny little glimpses of in the debates, the total impatience with the person he's arguing with. I really can't wait for the inevitable tell-alls from his campaign staffers.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:53 (eleven years ago) link
http://youtu.be/IFkaCji-UDA
20 min director's cut (rage portion starts @ 10:00
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
7:45 or so gets onto the topic it seems
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
OK obv he's a dick in this video but it's almost a relief to see some blood flowing here...I think this actually humanizes him. Also relative to his typical convolutions his argument seems (?) rhetorically sound.
― Hadrian VIII, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:58 (eleven years ago) link
yeah I agree, if anything reminds me of romney in debate #1
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:59 (eleven years ago) link
I mean he's way more likeable getting his panties in a wad like this — w/o simultaneously wearing that shit-eating smirk.
― Hadrian VIII, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah I'm actually with him insofar as, the question about the church actually is not really fair or germane. What's staggering is just the realization that there's some kind of human being in there who gets angry and goes ham, y'know? That it takes the specific form of this board-room motherfucker is the icing on the cake really.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
Christ appears in Jerusalem, splits the mount of olives to stop the war, it's coming to kill all the Jews.
― Mordy, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:00 (eleven years ago) link
I love his hair when he's angry.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:01 (eleven years ago) link
i always took it as a given that the reason his genial campaign trail demeanor is so contrived and 'robotic' was that he has to work so hard to stifle how unappealing his natural human self can be
― some dude, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:01 (eleven years ago) link
http://olivemountainrestaurant.com/g/Olive-Mountain-Money-Mailer-Ad.jpg
― tylerw, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:01 (eleven years ago) link
have to say it really is impressive how little mormonism has come up at all in this campaign though (xpost)
― some dude, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:02 (eleven years ago) link
interviewer: talk to me about how crazy your religion is...romney: [smiles blankly]
― tylerw, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:02 (eleven years ago) link
He really does remind me of Bob Dole - when ordered by handlers to stifle his natural sarcasm he turned into a imbecile.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:03 (eleven years ago) link
true but even that Romney couldn't get away w/ "I'm not running as a Mormon!" which I suspect a lot of Christian "centrists" are dying to hear from this guy. It would probably be smart of the Romney Campaign to own this one and get it defined on these terms
― Hadrian VIII, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
― some dude, Thursday, November 1, 2012 4:01 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― Hadrian VIII, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:05 (eleven years ago) link
nice piece on silver - http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109495/%E2%80%98predict-nate-silver%E2%80%99s-future-look-the-more-enlightened-sports-world
― balls, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:12 (eleven years ago) link
I'm reminded of this guy:
http://www.supermegamonkey.net/chronocomic/entries/scans8/EA4_KenWind.jpg
― Elvis Telecom, Thursday, 1 November 2012 20:23 (eleven years ago) link
Probably late to the party, but the Margaret Sullivan/Nate Silver feud is hilarious.
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 2 November 2012 13:55 (eleven years ago) link
When he came to work at The Times, Mr. Silver gained a lot more visibility and the credibility associated with a prominent institution. But he lost something, too: the right to act like a free agent with responsibilities to nobody’s standards but his own.
...lol
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 14:02 (eleven years ago) link
gingrich endorses obama?
http://news.yahoo.com/errant-gingrich-email-obama-going-win-174518235.html
― reggie (qualmsley), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:03 (eleven years ago) link
Is it really a feud though? She was critical of him, but he doesn't seem to be bothered by it.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:26 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah feud seems a bit strong. I seriously doubt 538 will be on NYT next election cycle though.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:31 (eleven years ago) link
not this Margaret?
http://brightlightsfilm.com/49/49_images/0Sullavan_1940_1.jpg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:32 (eleven years ago) link
538 is only leaving the nyt if nate silver wants to leave. he has a more credible brand than they do at this point.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 14:32 (eleven years ago) link
Right I meant that he is likely leaving not that they would show him the door.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:34 (eleven years ago) link
I dunno, I mean he seems to have as much independence as he wants + people like steady paychecks + hitching himself to some other media property can't improve his life much. but if he did I would imagine it would be to like, the economist ie something safe and big.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 14:47 (eleven years ago) link
@DennisThePerrinTo my comedian friends: Pile on Romney now, because after Tuesday he becomes Wendell Willkie.
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:48 (eleven years ago) link
ha – Wilkie became an essential FDR ally and liasion after we declared war on the Axis powers.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:51 (eleven years ago) link
you mean like Mittens' lockstep w/ Bam on the drone wars?
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:53 (eleven years ago) link
...and boring listeners to death as a FOX News contributor until the end of his days.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:56 (eleven years ago) link
He'll have to pry those Sunday news show invites out of John McCain's cold, dead hands.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Friday, 2 November 2012 14:59 (eleven years ago) link
so, look for him in 6-8 months?
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:00 (eleven years ago) link
As Roosevelt's personal representative, he traveled to Britain and the Middle East in late 1941, and to the Soviet Union and China in 1942.
This strikes me as fairly unlikely...
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:00 (eleven years ago) link
mccain and kerry still had jobs and still have some credibility within their parties. idk if romney is talkshow material - he doesn't really have any reason to keep pushing things he doesn't actually believe once he's not running for office.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:03 (eleven years ago) link
He'll always be running for office.
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:04 (eleven years ago) link
GuysGeeks, he meant the general public will forget Willard instantly.
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:05 (eleven years ago) link
when did lacking reasons ever keep Romney from doing anything?
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
Or prepare his sons to run for office. xxp
― Sug ban (Nicole), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
I hope deathstare son goes first
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:07 (eleven years ago) link
it would be awesome if one of his sons also had a failed bid for presidency
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:07 (eleven years ago) link
the inverse Adams family
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
Dubya came so close :(
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
before every debate he would write 'dad...also grandpa' on a sheet of paper
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
Some dude on the radio this morning was actually favorably comparing polls from Nate SIlver and Karl Rove. As if the latter were not some giant, walking red flag.
― Josh in Chicago, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:09 (eleven years ago) link
isn't it likely that Mitt Romney would just go back to the private sector that he can make a couple more hundred billion dollars before he retires?
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:10 (eleven years ago) link
I think so
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:11 (eleven years ago) link
that way when one of this doofus sons is running for president in 2036 he can finance the campaign himself
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:11 (eleven years ago) link
He would be the perfect president for the apocalypse.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:11 (eleven years ago) link
200 million, not 200 billion sorry
the more interesting question would be what obama would do next if he lost
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 15:12 (eleven years ago) link
it really cracks me up that dude looks like he fell directly out of The Omen III
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:13 (eleven years ago) link
He is almost cartoonishly evil looking.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:14 (eleven years ago) link
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, November 2, 2012 11:08 AM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Yet still creepy, kooky, and altogether ooky.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Friday, 2 November 2012 15:18 (eleven years ago) link
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/#more-37035
― Mordy, Friday, 2 November 2012 16:24 (eleven years ago) link
sometimes I wonder if Obama could accomplish things that improve peoples lives a hell of a lot more easier if he weren't president
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:24 (eleven years ago) link
Really curious how much that single IN senatorial poll will change the 538 odds in that state.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:35 (eleven years ago) link
Do you mean presidentially? I think a few polls from that Senate race have shown that Mourdock is finished
― running like a young deer (symsymsym), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:43 (eleven years ago) link
No I mean for Donnelly/Mourdock. Right now 538 is still showing Mourdock as a 65% favorite. I have to assume that as soon as the most recent IN poll is added that will flip flop completely. IN is very under-polled by the way according to RCP.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:47 (eleven years ago) link
According to RCP there has been only one IN senate poll post comments (and only two in October altogether.)
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
oh, maybe it was just something I read on the Fix that the internal polls for both campaigns show Mourdock in a world of hurt
― running like a young deer (symsymsym), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:53 (eleven years ago) link
The group implosion of the Republican senate candidates has been a beautiful thing to watch.
― running like a young deer (symsymsym), Friday, 2 November 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
the exact same thing happened during the mid terms too. gotta wonder how long the 'serious' members of the gop will tolerate these tea party morans.
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 2 November 2012 17:25 (eleven years ago) link
serious Republicans have no influence or are David Frum.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 17:28 (eleven years ago) link
If that was true Rick Santorum would be the presidential candidate.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 November 2012 17:30 (eleven years ago) link
serious republicans are feeling downright grave atm
― Aimless, Friday, 2 November 2012 17:34 (eleven years ago) link
Primary voters chose Mitt because he didn't dress his children and his children's dolls in the same skirts.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 17:34 (eleven years ago) link
they should have david gergen run for president every year
― johnathan lee riche$ (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 2 November 2012 17:34 (eleven years ago) link
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, November 2, 2012 12:28 PM (34 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, November 2, 2012 12:30 PM (33 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
'no influence' might be an overstatement but they sure don't run the show. 'their guy' won because the 1000 crazy people that the base preferred flamed out + crazies can't handle national media not because the srs republican establishment took over. rick santorum isn't the candidate because of rick santorum. rick perry isn't the candidate because of rick perry.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:14 (eleven years ago) link
Mitch McConnell has run the show in the Senate since Obama was elected, WTF are you talking about
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:18 (eleven years ago) link
basically if srs republicans were holding the puppet strings we wouldn't have spent half the year talking about donald trump and herman cain. and once romney became mathematically inevitable, santorum woulda found the exit door.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:19 (eleven years ago) link
you mean this thing?
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/03/02/health/mcconnell480/mcconnell480-blogSpan.jpg
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:19 (eleven years ago) link
yes
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
not saying he runs everything but to say he has no influence is nutso
http://wuzzadem.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/turtle.gif
― 5-Hour Enmity (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
when the only gop senators still around are far right and the filibuster exists you don't have to do anything to make nothing happen. that's not the same as having real control w/r/t how the party operates.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:21 (eleven years ago) link
making nothing happen for Obama in the Senate is real control
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:22 (eleven years ago) link
I'm not arguing that 'republicans don't control congress' I'm arguing that srs people don't control republicans
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:22 (eleven years ago) link
and i am saying for you to argue that he is not a serious Republican, or a serious person who controls other Republicans, is quite foolish
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
he's a serious asshole
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:25 (eleven years ago) link
'the republican party' means a lot more than the 47 people in the senate
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:27 (eleven years ago) link
what iatee is saying is that mcconnell 'controls' the far right republicans pretty much by leading them in the direction they want to go, kind of like a five year old walking a great dane. the five year old holds the leash, but the great dane is making the decisions.
― Aimless, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
I'm trying to imagine David Gergen saying that sentence.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:30 (eleven years ago) link
no shit
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
i am not saying the republican party only exists in the vacuum of the senate
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
I think we need Pleasant Plains to weigh in on this one.
― Hans von Jerkoffsky (WilliamC), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
the fundamental difference between 'serious' republicans and tea partiers is way overstated
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
yeah I mean the tea party was just a rebranding campaign, it's not like the gop wasn't filled w/ crazies in 2008 either. but the cleansing of moderates that's been going on means that there are fewer and fewer people who you can go to for making any contrast within the party. and even when they exist and 'hold power' ie mcconnell and romney - they're forced to play by other peoples' rules. romney didn't run the campaign he wanted to run - he *couldn't*. nor could mccain.
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:39 (eleven years ago) link
I mean nobody thinks that if romney wins the presidency - 'at his deep dark core' probably the single most moderate republican to run for pres since eisenhower - he'll have any real capability w/r/t molding the gop to his image. even as the single most powerful man in the country!
― iatee, Friday, 2 November 2012 18:43 (eleven years ago) link
serious asshole
http://i48.tinypic.com/1f4op.jpg
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:44 (eleven years ago) link
despite all the cheery poll numbers, i think i'm just go to have this low level anxiety until the election is over....
thinking about signing up for a shift canvassing for obama, at least feel like i've done something i guess
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 21:45 (eleven years ago) link
2 possible ways to visualize/make intuitive a 70% chance of winning-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3[...]― flopson, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 5:06 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3[...]
― flopson, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 5:06 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
really late to reply to this, but this would only be correct if the election was done by sampling, which it isn't. with actual voting it could be more like a 69% chance of obama either winning all 10 days, a 29% chance of romney winning all 10, and 2% a mix of results.
― abanana, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:01 (eleven years ago) link
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VlmHNP9So5Y/S86arf3VhTI/AAAAAAAAFcI/yZ-JaIaYn2o/s1600/mcconnell.jpg
― Iago Galdston, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:17 (eleven years ago) link
c'mon guys we've been over this re: Senator Blobfish
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01565/blobfish_1565953c.jpg
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:18 (eleven years ago) link
it's become kind of hilarious watching everyone on ile take a turn at coming up with a shaky analogy about what polls may or may not actually mean
― some dude, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:20 (eleven years ago) link
Shakey's pretty good about making analogies himself.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:23 (eleven years ago) link
eh, if you follow sports where silver gets most of his methodology from it's not that hard to get`a grasp on
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:23 (eleven years ago) link
that's why all the pained attempts to overexplain it are funny!
― some dude, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:24 (eleven years ago) link
it's like if you put 7 obamas and 3 romneys into a bag....oh nevermind.
― ryan, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:25 (eleven years ago) link
if daily elections were held in one hundred alternate universes, the reverse vampires would elect romney πx7 times
― some dude, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:27 (eleven years ago) link
I was less trying to come up with an illustration of what 70-30 means--I'm quite sure everyone understands that--then why no one ought to be shocked if the 30% end of it were to happen (and, by extension, why the Republican freak-out of Nate Silver is silly). Surprised, sure, but not shocked.
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
"of Nate Silver" = "over Nate Silver"
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
80-20
― lag∞n, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
O'Nate Silverpants.
― Jeff, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
Yes, up to 80-20 now--if I remember 2008 correctly, it will keep increasing until Tuesday (absent any evidence that it shouldn't).
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:33 (eleven years ago) link
kinda of excited that this election has lead to a nationwide debate over statistics and probability theory
― ryan, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:35 (eleven years ago) link
They should skip the whole election and just roll a d10 every day; if it comes up 2, 6 or 7 Romney gets to be President that day, otherwise Obama gets to be President
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:36 (eleven years ago) link
xp: 2 or 7 now
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:37 (eleven years ago) link
Saving throw vs. mind flayers
― Ned Raggett, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:37 (eleven years ago) link
Future presidents to be exclusively drawn from the worlds of baseball sabermetrics and Texas Hold 'Em champions.
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:40 (eleven years ago) link
mitt vs. death
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:42 (eleven years ago) link
daryl morey at head of nasa, depodesta at hud, epstein at treasury, beane at state, bill james attorney general
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:45 (eleven years ago) link
Would have excellent, but I think he died.
http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/kicks105.com/files/2012/01/robert-hegyes.jpg
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
lasorda as henny kissinger
― sug ones (omar little), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
john schuerholz as mitch danielsjoe morgan as rick perry
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:53 (eleven years ago) link
jose canseco as donald trump
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
Quite understandable, but seriously, just do what I'm doing and drink a lot and play Xcom. It's doing wonders for my anxiety to blast Sectopods into fragments by like three dudes with plasma sniper rifles.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:55 (eleven years ago) link
yeah playing ac3, but it's just...always....there
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 23:02 (eleven years ago) link
man, Silver's "there weren't so many assholes in sports journalism" cuts pretty deep
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2012 23:57 (eleven years ago) link
Lol at "mitt v death"
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:22 (eleven years ago) link
Romney & Ryan's Alternate-Reality Adventure
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:23 (eleven years ago) link
i don't care what they claim on internet comment sections i refuse to believe any republican has any enthusiasm about voting for romney
― Mordy, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:26 (eleven years ago) link
Mitt vs. Death by Mitt
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:33 (eleven years ago) link
Maddow shining spotlight on Florida's attempt to fuck up the voting experience
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:34 (eleven years ago) link
http://fayobserver.com/articles/2012/11/01/1214384?sac=fo.home
― reggie (qualmsley), Saturday, 3 November 2012 02:10 (eleven years ago) link
http://americablog.com/2012/11/computer-glitch-votes-black-florida-county-election-fraud.html
― Fetchboy, Saturday, 3 November 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
― ryan, Friday, November 2, 2012 6:35 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
me, too
― flopson, Saturday, 3 November 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
How many of this year's Voter Fraud cases involve Republican tampering? I guess if the problem wasn't there much before, they are doing there best to prove it really exists.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 3 November 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
so I lost my ID and I was pretty sure that as a registered democrat I'd never be able to get a replacement. I went Friday and they just asked for my social and gave me the card, took 2 or 3 mins, didn't ask for any documentation. Really?!
― flag this post and die (roxymuzak), Sunday, 4 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
if the ID card had a photo, they could check it against your appearance and... bob's your uncle
― Aimless, Sunday, 4 November 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
uh-oh - carolina won.
― balls, Sunday, 4 November 2012 22:03 (eleven years ago) link
So is AC3 worth it? The podcasty reviews from the last week have been mixed.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Sunday, 4 November 2012 22:08 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.thenation.com/blog/171011/eleventh-hour-gop-voter-suppression-could-swing-ohio#
― Mordy, Sunday, 4 November 2012 22:37 (eleven years ago) link
As a displaced NJ voter, by order of the governor, I can now vote by email. However, this seems to require a printer and a scanner, so it's not quite as easy as it sounds. Not sure if this will invite massive absentee ballot fraud.
― o. nate, Sunday, 4 November 2012 23:27 (eleven years ago) link
That OH story is disgusting
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 00:13 (eleven years ago) link
bums me out
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 00:17 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/the-smug-vs-the-stupid
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 00:41 (eleven years ago) link
Guess what: if the research is correct, up to at least one in five Americans have sociopathic tendencies strong enough to believe that full-on overt fascism would be a great idea and total improvement. There's a reason why Alan Keyes got the numbers he did when he ran against Obama, or why Nixon's approval ratings were nonzero on the day he got on that helicopter to leave office, or why Dubya's numbers never dropped elong a certain point. What do you do, how do you adjust your Enlightenment-era view of the benefits of rationality, reason, and democracy when knowing how fucked up a large enough percentage of people think?
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Monday, 5 November 2012 01:13 (eleven years ago) link
Education, education, education.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 5 November 2012 02:13 (eleven years ago) link
im glad that they are giving people affected by the storm more convenient voting options, this is incredibly stupid though. do they not know that pdfs can be interactive?
― dsb, Monday, 5 November 2012 02:33 (eleven years ago) link
#jersey
― iatee, Monday, 5 November 2012 02:34 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/04/3081614/florida-democratic-party-files.html
― thraeds of life (The Reverend), Monday, 5 November 2012 02:37 (eleven years ago) link
oh yeah -- I had a friend in line over there. Shit was crazy.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 5 November 2012 02:41 (eleven years ago) link
a line to vote in FL. thank god we have all-mail voting in WA.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A6z07-WCcAAIrju.jpg:large
― thraeds of life (The Reverend), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:01 (eleven years ago) link
insane
― iatee, Monday, 5 November 2012 03:06 (eleven years ago) link
voter suppression in FL is so real. i've had multiple convos with family members this week about friends who have waited 5+ hours in line.
one of the reasons that it takes so long to vote -- i'm sure alfred could attest to this -- is because the ballots are 10+ pages long. the ballots list the full text of all ballot measures in both english and spanish. rick scott is actively attempting to make voting the most loathsome act on earth.
― lil dirk (J0rdan S.), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:08 (eleven years ago) link
After my eight-hour voting wait in 2008 i will never really be impressed by voting lines again, but that was really a matter of a significant jump in turnout and people really being super excited about voting for Obama, not a matter of anyone deliberately trying to make it hard to vote IMO.
― Doctor Casino, Monday, 5 November 2012 03:13 (eleven years ago) link
crazy thats for early voting
― lag∞n, Monday, 5 November 2012 03:14 (eleven years ago) link
The ballot is insane: five double-sided pages. One amendment "synopsis" requires a full page of legal doggerel. Voting yes to another amendment will make Obamacare unenforceable in Florida. Yet another restricts state funds for abortions.
I mailed my absentee ballot three weeks ago, about which I'm still conflicted. Naturally I avoided the fate of a friend who arrived at 6:15 a.m. at a polling station yesterday morning and didn't leave until a quarter to one, but my 88-year-old grandmother who vote in person on Tuesday.
Charles Pierce has been terrific: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:15 (eleven years ago) link
btw lines for early voting were insane in 2008 and 2010 too but when I voted on Election Day I waited ten minutes in line both times.
I need to find a story analyzing whether early voting diminishes length of time spent waiting on ED or if it's merely a cosmetic thing.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:17 (eleven years ago) link
As for the latest Pierce column, love his allusion to David Gergen blather as "enervating fatuousness."
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:20 (eleven years ago) link
Is that Nation link as disturbing as it sounds or a little paranoid?
― clemenza, Monday, 5 November 2012 03:26 (eleven years ago) link
here they just put the full text of the ballot measures in the voters' pamphlet (this year's is 151 pages!). the ballot itself is one two-sided page.
― thraeds of life (The Reverend), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:28 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/11/axelrod-theyre-in-deep-trouble-148315.html
comments on this post are psychotic - if you're into that kind of thing
― Mordy, Monday, 5 November 2012 03:38 (eleven years ago) link
Rs Smth · Top CommenterThis Veteran will not defend an Obama Amerika!Reply · 182 · Like · 11 hours agoRs Smth · Top CommenterIf Obama wins , you'll have to split the republic Red from Blue in order to remain free.
― HAPPY BDAY TOOTS (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 5 November 2012 03:50 (eleven years ago) link
my voting precinct in (flooded out town in) New Jersey has electrical power and is a block away from my (still powerless) apartment. so i plan to do it old school and just walk to the precinct to vote instead of trying to do the email/fax voting option.
― spicy bacon, bitch! (Eisbaer), Monday, 5 November 2012 04:10 (eleven years ago) link
http://m.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/president-obama-and-mitt-romney-begin-final-push-toward-election-day/2012/11/04/14b1923e-269b-11e2-8d6a-9b57d8a5215c_story.html
Love the last paragraph
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 04:51 (eleven years ago) link
Liberals are HypocritesI remember, not too long ago, when liberals said they would retain the house in 2010... they didn't. Then they said they would recall Scott Walker... they didn't. Now they say Obama will win re-election. ;)Reply · 282 · Like · Follow Post · 18 hours ago
Maura Bl · Top Commenter · Boston, Massachusetts its invent math Ma! lol first it was inventive spelling and reading which has done nothing more than make our kids dumb ... Reply · 39 · Like · 18 hours ago
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 11:33 (eleven years ago) link
Lana Savin · Top Commenter@Jack D Howard...so sick of the hypocrisy of liberals, I haven't heard about conservatives threatening riots and mayhem if Romney loses, nor have I heard about conservatives vandalizing private property and cars because they have an Obama sticker or sign. Nor have I heard of them threatening to kill black babies and black people in general. And nowhere in Paul's comments to he say he hated Obama. Democrats have become the true party of hate, the secret is out so stop the BSReply · 9 · Like · 18 hours ago
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 11:36 (eleven years ago) link
ok sorry, I just...
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 11:37 (eleven years ago) link
We all probably need to take a step back, and take a deep breath.
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 11:39 (eleven years ago) link
Yes. Yesterday I was driving through Easthampton, MA and saw a few people standing around waving Romney signs and a Don't Tread on Me Banner, which is not a common sight around here. Because the Republicans in my life have dialed it way down in the last few years or are newly minted fake-Libertarians, I felt this desperate need to talk to these people — to interact w/ them rather than read their FB comments or see them soundbitten on Comedy Central. So I parked around the corner so it didn't look like I was pulling over just to needle them or start a fight or whatever, but by the time I got there they were gone.
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 11:46 (eleven years ago) link
Hopefully that can serve as the epitaph of this election.
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 11:51 (eleven years ago) link
I feel like a such a clown every few months for having the same, private epiphany — "Oh yeah, this country has gone seriously, irretrievably off the rails." But it does feel different this time. Not because "they" are any more vitriolic or dishonest than before but because there is ZERO OVERLAP in the competing narratives.
The odds are probably better for term limits legislation or comprehensive gun control than for anything that will walk back the FCC deregulation that has allowed for this. Clear Channel, Fox, Gannett, Time Warner...the system they've been gifted with is profitable ONLY by permanent encampment on one of the two sides.
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 12:05 (eleven years ago) link
(^this is obv. a false equivalency in strictly ideological terms)
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 12:08 (eleven years ago) link
obama -- 67% to win on intrade as 7:30am EST the day before election
― reggie (qualmsley), Monday, 5 November 2012 12:36 (eleven years ago) link
some of you probably couldnt bring yourself to vote for O unless you checked the maniac militiamen comments, I suspect. (At least leave me that illusion.)
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2012 12:45 (eleven years ago) link
(At least leave me that illusion.)
Why? Your desire for this illusion would seem to bolster the thought that you're mainly in this for the superiority. (For the record, I'm voting for Jill Stein and suspect I'm in the minority w/r/t to being generally sympathetic toward yr position)
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 12:49 (eleven years ago) link
whatev, i don't get that
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2012 12:59 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, no.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 5 November 2012 13:08 (eleven years ago) link
Sorry...it sounds to me like you are saying Obama voters require wingnut noise to justify their votes, which suggests they're not thinking clearly. And yet you don't really believe this but would prefer to hold this illusion....
― Hadrian VIII, Monday, 5 November 2012 13:12 (eleven years ago) link
yes, yes
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2012 13:14 (eleven years ago) link
There you go, believing in things you don't believe in.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 5 November 2012 13:20 (eleven years ago) link
Morbs beleives in contrarianism.
― Come Into My Layer (Old Lunch), Monday, 5 November 2012 13:35 (eleven years ago) link
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeightObama's win probability peaked at 87% on 10/4, last day before polls reflected Denver debate. Fell to 61% on 10/12. Now fully recovered.
― Mordy, Monday, 5 November 2012 13:40 (eleven years ago) link
ha at mobuto's description of unskewed polls: "generated in the same way that a kid turns an F into an A by drawing an extra bar down the right side of it."
― caek, Monday, 5 November 2012 13:45 (eleven years ago) link
welp
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/this_could_get_weird.php?ref=fpblg
― it's smdh time in America (will), Monday, 5 November 2012 14:03 (eleven years ago) link
Loved that line. It was a really good piece all over.
― Manchild in Beantown (stevie), Monday, 5 November 2012 14:30 (eleven years ago) link
Yesterday I was driving through Easthampton, MA and saw a few people standing around waving Romney signs and a Don't Tread on Me Banner, which is not a common sight around here.
There are weird pockets of hardcore conservatism in that area (cf. my former employers in the adjacent town who stalked around the office muttering "I can't believe we have a n----r president" the morning after the 2008 election).
― 5-Hour Enmity (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Monday, 5 November 2012 14:46 (eleven years ago) link
A bit of levity:
http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/barack-obama-s-cold-calls
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 14:57 (eleven years ago) link
Either Obama will win, or polling/poll analysis is finished. Not sure whether that's comforting or not.
Sidenote: I wonder whether Romney's personality explains the infamous divide between national polls and battleground state polls. That is, the more you see of him, the less you want to vote for him.
― Ye Mad Puffin, Monday, 5 November 2012 15:02 (eleven years ago) link
Raymond, that was awesome.
― Johnny Fever, Monday, 5 November 2012 15:05 (eleven years ago) link
Either Obama will win, or polling/poll analysis is finished. Not sure whether that's comforting or not. --Ye Mad Puffin
Not likely. Methodologies might get adjusted, but that's it. People don't seem to remember how wrong the polls were in 2000.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Monday, 5 November 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
Thanks man
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
ya that was great
I think we are probably in a transition period w/r/t polling methodology and online/tech-related polls will def slowly take over. but its not like the field of statistics disappears if it turns out there was some huge methodology problem this time.
― iatee, Monday, 5 November 2012 15:25 (eleven years ago) link
Either Obama will win, or polling/poll analysis is finished.
No! The polling just says that Obama is substantially more likely to win than he is to lose. But he could still lose. All the polls give us is an estimate. If Romney wins California, then yeah, that's a strike against polling. But I don't think that's going to happen.
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, 5 November 2012 15:32 (eleven years ago) link
good post on the difference in methodology of the various polling agrigators, agrees w my suspicion that Nate silver is v conservative in calling an election a lock http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/04/comparisons-among-aggregators-and-modelers
― lag∞n, Monday, 5 November 2012 15:36 (eleven years ago) link
My biggest worry was that this would end up looking like the 2000 election so I went back and looked at final pre-election polling results, nationally & in OH.Bush was ahead in basically every November 2000 poll of Ohio. (2 ahead Mason-Dixon, 10 ahead Ohio Poll, 9 ahead Zogby)Bush was ahead 11-2-2 in final national polls in 2000. (11 polls where Bush was ahead, 2 where Gore was ahead, 2 tied)OTOH, Florida was lightly polled in Nov 2000 (only two polls after Nov 1), and both polls (ARG and Zogby) showed Gore ahead.
― Bnad, Monday, 5 November 2012 15:40 (eleven years ago) link
very nervous, the prospect of a romney presidency is more terrifying than 4 more years of bush
― spazzmatazz, Monday, 5 November 2012 16:18 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, not very reassuring to read of a final set of polls, which, if aggregated with no weighting, produced a result that was nearly 3pts the wrong way (Bush +2.3 rather than Gore +0.5). Looks like Nader's support was overestimated.
― Michael Jones, Monday, 5 November 2012 16:25 (eleven years ago) link
This all comes down to fans of The Newsroom: http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/what-your-favorite-tv-shows-say-about-your-politic
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 17:23 (eleven years ago) link
Why does So You Think You Can Dance lean left and Dancing With the Stars lean right? Aren't they both just dancing shows? I don't watch either so it is puzzling to me.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Monday, 5 November 2012 17:37 (eleven years ago) link
one involves discovering new talented dancers and one involves torturing celebrities in order to find the two or three who can actually dance
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Monday, 5 November 2012 17:38 (eleven years ago) link
people publicly celebrate reality tv lean right, i believe it
― da croupier, Monday, 5 November 2012 17:41 (eleven years ago) link
I'm guessing the right-leaning TCM viewers don't include the ones who stayed up to watch Riki-oh.
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 17:42 (eleven years ago) link
I can't put my finger on it either, and yet it parses so absolutely perfectly to my own personal experience.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 5 November 2012 17:44 (eleven years ago) link
Sons of Anarchy makes so much sense in that diagram.
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 17:44 (eleven years ago) link
dr. morbius who shd i vote 4! leaning towards romney obv ;)
― dojo nixon (am0n), Monday, 5 November 2012 17:56 (eleven years ago) link
This headline is a good sign:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-romney-will-win_660391.html
Fondly remeber Fred Barnes' 1996 New Republic cover story: WHY CLINTON CAN'T WIN,
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Monday, 5 November 2012 18:07 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, I tried to early vote on Saturday afternoon, and a posted sign announced it was a two hour wait. Based on past experience, I decided it'd be a lot quicker for me to vote on Election Day, so I went home. In Chicago, there are about 2,000 polling places open on election day, but only 50 were open for early voting.
― Sandy Denny Real Estate (jaymc), Monday, 5 November 2012 18:09 (eleven years ago) link
look I don't like the idea of a Romney presidency but seriously?
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Monday, 5 November 2012 18:45 (eleven years ago) link
I can actually see that argument. Partly it's because we've all survived a Bush presidency, but the landscape has changed so much.
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 18:51 (eleven years ago) link
i feel similarly. between the absolutely terrifying economic policy, the chances of heavy deregulation (particularly wrt environmental aspects), the near guaranteed tax handout to the ultra-wealthy (and requisite bashing of the middle class to make up the difference), the sabre rattling at iran, and the campaign promises of getting "tough" on china on day one, i think that romney/ryan could completely fuck up any progress we've made towards economic recovery, get us into another hopeless war, and accelerate global climate catastrophe.
― Jesus said "What the hell is a Wumpscut?" (jjjusten), Monday, 5 November 2012 18:52 (eleven years ago) link
Bush redefined the party in a way that ensures that every future GOP pres will be 'even worse' even if mittens himself might not seem so scary
― iatee, Monday, 5 November 2012 18:54 (eleven years ago) link
Hope-filled Fred Barnes cites: "a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days" as a prime reason why Romney will win.
Whenever I read about GOTV efforts that cite huge numbers of phone calls made, I immediately think... robo-calls. Then I think, if the Big Brains For Romney believe that robo-calls will inject that last bit of self-motivation to get a non-voter out the door to vote, then they truly have more money than sense. GOTV is all about human volunteers making contact with other humans. 1,800,000 calls per day is a nonsense statistic to feed to big contributors and the media.
― Aimless, Monday, 5 November 2012 19:03 (eleven years ago) link
to ease the pressure in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy, the voting has been divided into 2 days. Republicans vote Tuesday. Democrats vote on Wednesday. Please pass along
― Mordy, Monday, 5 November 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
when the robot tells u to vote u have to or it will shoot u with lasers
― ciderpress, Monday, 5 November 2012 19:08 (eleven years ago) link
"HEY JEWS" -Mamet
http://www.jewishjournal.com/opinion/article/the_final_obama_romney_showdown_a_note_to_a_stiff_necked_people
― pretty even gender split (Eazy), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:16 (eleven years ago) link
the diminution in employment and income will decrease their opportunity to marry
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:26 (eleven years ago) link
Oh right, he wrote Oleanna. Makes perfect sense now.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
in case anyone isn't paying attention, David Mamet's late career has been as a reactionary zionist
― Infamous dickbiscuits (silby), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:29 (eleven years ago) link
(the existence of reactionary zionists would, of course, have left midcentury labor zionists totally dumbfounded)
― Infamous dickbiscuits (silby), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:30 (eleven years ago) link
david mamet makes reactionary zionist look bad
― Mordy, Monday, 5 November 2012 19:38 (eleven years ago) link
lol @ mamet. that is incredibly poorly written for a guy with so many awards:
Will you explain (as you have observed) that a large part of their incomes will be used to fund programs that they may find immoral, wasteful and/or indeed absurd? And that the bulk of their taxes go to no programs at all, but merely service the debt you entailed on them?
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
anyone who makes this accuz and isn't a mindreader needs to stfu
I find the constant "yer into feeling SUPERIOR" sneer thrown at minor-party voters weird when I am regularly told by gung-ho Dem voters that I am a CHILD for 'throwing my vote away.' (In NY, of all places.)
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2012 19:56 (eleven years ago) link
one can be smug and foolish
― da croupier, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:02 (eleven years ago) link
constant "yer into feeling SUPERIOR" sneer thrown at you /= constant "yer into feeling SUPERIOR" sneer thrown at minor-party voters
get over yrself
― balls, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:04 (eleven years ago) link
don't feel sorry for the guy who pops into threads to throw out snide remarks about our moral failings and then plays the victim
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:06 (eleven years ago) link
boo hoo, woe is me
fuck off y'all
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Monday, 5 November 2012 20:10 (eleven years ago) link
like sand through the hourglass... so are the days of our lives
― lag∞n, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:16 (eleven years ago) link
Morbs we need to hug this out
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:18 (eleven years ago) link
it's a morbius strip (djp NO!)
― sweet emoticon (Hunt3r), Monday, 5 November 2012 20:19 (eleven years ago) link
so wait, someone just told me that mittens paid no taxes for 10 years per a new Bloomberg story, and I can find neither hide nor hair of it on the internetz. is it just being ignored?
― Iago Galdston, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:29 (eleven years ago) link
It was linked yesterday but nobody really cares anymore
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:30 (eleven years ago) link
“An Open Letter to Nonvoters on the Left” by Ari Feld
Dear friends,
Representative democracy is not ideal. The Electoral College is faulty. The two party system stymies political innovation. Both Republicans and Democrats cozy up with dubious sources of funding. You are right to condemn the disingenuousness of politics— the unremitting hedging and double-talk, the pandering and outright silliness of both parties. You are wrong to believe that participation in electoral democracy legitimizes a hopelessly flawed system. Despite everything, voting remains the most powerful non-violent method of effective political action.
Voters elect the president. The president appoints Supreme Court justices and a host of other judges. Voters elect state and national representatives. These people work in concert (or conflict), with or without your permission, to arbitrate legal reality. Whether you like it or not, we are all subjects to their decisions. To say otherwise is foolish. To say that Democrats and Republicans pursue comparable domestic policies is a departure from reason. To say elections don’t affect you is, at best, to delude yourself. At worst, it disavows other people’s civil rights and empowers the most reactionary and destructive forces in our society.
Which political party advances women’s and minorities’ rights, gay rights, the rights of the poor, and sounder drug and environmental policies? In general, who does more of that, Democrats or Republicans? In the broadest strokes possible, which of these parties and their judicial appointees will enact and uphold laws to improve and protect the lives of the most vulnerable and disenfranchised citizens?
Your abstention facilitates Republican victories. I understand that you abstainers have personal convictions that make it difficult for you to vote for the Democrats. You certainly have a right to your conscience. Indeed, individual rights and freedoms are a cornerstone of our democracy. However, you take these precepts too far by elevating your desire to simply express them (by not voting) over seeking their full realization for all Americans. In other words, expressing your conscience comes at the expense of women’s access to safe, effective family planning services. Your conscience gets in the way of equal marriage rights for all. Your conscience has far less to struggle with than single mothers denied vital social services by Republican policies. Your conscience is of no avail to citizens imprisoned for non-violent drug offenses. Your conscience is merely self-righteous.
Self-righteousness disguised as conscience or personal conviction is the worst kind of American individualism. There are convictions and then there is trenchant unwillingness to acknowledge any reality beyond the frontiers of your own experience or circumstance. That is solipsism, not a conviction. Citizens of a democracy have a responsibility to share struggles that are not their own. This admonishment applies equally to those of you who would “vote your conscience” by supporting unelectable independents. Until you have succeeded in implementing instant run-off voting in your community, or unless this nation becomes a parliamentary democracy, someone will be elected and it won’t be your candidate. Compromise is the reality of politics, except in totalitarian states.
Progressive and radical citizens who refuse to compromise elicit comparison with the Tea Party and their debt-limit intransigence last year. Their refusal exemplifies the most anti-intellectual strain of American politics. But to say that I am arguing for all of us on the left to fall in with a party line is to utterly miss the point: we need votes not for the sake of Obama and the Democrats but for the sake of the most vulnerable people— women, children and the elderly—who will benefit from their policies.
Voters defer to reality. We shape it. We criticize and castigate. We honor those who are maimed and killed fighting for this right. We remember that not so long ago women and African-Americans in this country struggled in this way. Nonvoters must certainly remember such history as well. Perhaps today’s struggles seem less dire. Perhaps current candidates fail to excite you.
Make no mistake, the Democrats may be nothing to get excited about this year. Who cares if you’re excited? Your excitement is of great concern to no one (except possibly to you, which in itself is a luxury). The unemployed, the marginalized and unprivileged know that reality dictates acting for reasons other than excitement. Least-worst choices are all we have for the moment. There is no time to transform America during a presidential election. To say it another way, there is no time to re-make America in your own image this year. That’s what every other year is for. Realistically, though, all I hope for is a defense and perhaps a gradual advance of progressive domestic policy. It seems that only non-voters have lower aspirations.
Indeed, what are the politics of inaction? What do you hope to rectify with your power of inertia? What is the message of civil discourse that says nothing at the national level? Before you opt out, think about what’s at stake. And remember your awesome power: nonvoters make up a greater part of the potential electorate than either Democrats or Republicans and almost as much as both of them combined. If you persist in your abstention, you persist in subservience to a ruling elite: voters.
Sincerely,
Ari Feld
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Monday, 5 November 2012 20:31 (eleven years ago) link
why does Ari Feld like killing children?
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:38 (eleven years ago) link
OK, I'm feeling pretty confident that Obama has a real lead in Ohio, but this stuff is making me feel extremely nervous:
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/ohio_republicans_sneak_risky_software_onto_voting_machines/
― Moodles, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:53 (eleven years ago) link
y'know, I love the term "to service debt". it makes it sound like our national debt is regularly receiving blowjobs
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, 5 November 2012 20:57 (eleven years ago) link
it is, didn't you know?
― Moodles, Monday, 5 November 2012 20:59 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Happy-Wen-Jiabao.jpegyou want happy ending?
― balls, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:02 (eleven years ago) link
OK, I'm feeling pretty confident that Obama has a real lead in Ohio, but this stuff is making me feel extremely nervous:http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/ohio_republicans_sneak_risky_software_onto_voting_machines/
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/ohio_republicans_sneak_risky_software_onto_voting_machines/
Just gotta hope the vote fraud is less than a percent or two I guess, US Politics 2012
― Matt Armstrong, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:02 (eleven years ago) link
what happens if the exit polls show something completely different than the official results?
― Moodles, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:03 (eleven years ago) link
i am not swayed by Ari Feld
― dojo nixon (am0n), Monday, 5 November 2012 21:05 (eleven years ago) link
that shit makes me nervous as hell, but i'd hope that a US president is not without recourse if it even remotely looks like the outcome of his re-election was tampered with
― da croupier, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:07 (eleven years ago) link
re: ohio voting machines
response to the ohio voting software stuff
http://www.theawl.com/2012/11/the-truth-about-voting-machines
― max, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:13 (eleven years ago) link
I'm cautiously reassured
― Moodles, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:19 (eleven years ago) link
Ok we can go back to worrying about the provisional ballot thing
― Matt Armstrong, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:19 (eleven years ago) link
I'd like to think no entity has the actual power/balls to successfully tamper with election results
― crüt, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:21 (eleven years ago) link
figure that every time out there's some mercenary who dumps a couple hundred dem ballots in the trash and tbh it's probably balanced out by another mercenary doing the same to repub ballots.
― sug ones (omar little), Monday, 5 November 2012 21:24 (eleven years ago) link
big conspiracies don't usually work out so good because people are generally incompetent
― iatee, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
saw that shit happen on battlestar galactica xp
― mookieproof, Monday, 5 November 2012 21:25 (eleven years ago) link
Note that all of the big spikes on 538 are to the right of 288 = Obama most likely won't need it. Which will be handy, because it could be a long time before that state is actually settled.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 5 November 2012 22:39 (eleven years ago) link
This One Weird Old Trick To Get People To Vote
― am0n, Monday, 5 November 2012 22:52 (eleven years ago) link
current first GIS hit for "fancy words for drinking" http://cdn.theatlanticwire.com/img/upload/2012/10/03/rendered/54ee622a09e4f3db08324ce3a6ca8bb4_400x280.jpg
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 5 November 2012 23:31 (eleven years ago) link
smh at that Mamet piece. It's like he's had a head injury. It's not that he's a conservative, it's that he's such a moron about it.
― Deafening silence (DL), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:04 (eleven years ago) link
he has dennis miller disease
― Manchild in Beantown (stevie), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:07 (eleven years ago) link
hes so half ass abt it, like if youre not willing to put some effort in why bother
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:11 (eleven years ago) link
its not like he cant think and write good if he tries
what happens if the exit polls show something completely different than the official results?― Moodles, Monday, November 5, 2012 4:03 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Then you know there were shenanigans, correct? Isn't that what happened to Kerry in '04 in Ohio?
― Iago Galdston, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:12 (eleven years ago) link
<3 you balls but this is bullshit, sneering condescension toward minor-party voters is pretty consistent among Democrats. Also the "you want happy ending" line a couple posts later is a li'l racist maybe don't perpetuate bogus-ass Asian stereotype "hilarious" accent bullshit? cool thanks
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:21 (eleven years ago) link
<3 you balls, butt,
― flopson, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:25 (eleven years ago) link
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 00:26 (eleven years ago) link
this is bullshit, sneering condescension toward minor-party voters is pretty consistent among Democrats.
and annoyance with morbz is pretty consistent on ilx, outside of political threads
― da croupier, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 01:01 (eleven years ago) link
the democratic party is hardly the first thing i knew morbz felt superior to
― da croupier, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 01:03 (eleven years ago) link
There ought to be a poll.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 01:48 (eleven years ago) link
fair enough aero though lol @ you having wen jiabao's back
― balls, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 02:34 (eleven years ago) link
I thought everyone knew aero was in the politburo
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 02:36 (eleven years ago) link
gay silver bumped obama up to 91% tonight
― lil dirk (J0rdan S.), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 02:38 (eleven years ago) link
the politburrito stalls (xpost)
― they say they gon' mod me, see me never do shit (some dude), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 02:40 (eleven years ago) link
We vote for Obama. Technocratic neoliberalism is preferable to theocratic neoconservatism, at this early stage before True History begins.
― Banaka™ (banaka), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:12 (eleven years ago) link
oracle speaks
― i've grown accustomed to her face tat (m bison), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:13 (eleven years ago) link
are you seriously telling people to vote against the first android candidate for a major party?
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:13 (eleven years ago) link
Power to the decline of people, right on. xxp
― WilliamC, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:14 (eleven years ago) link
a banaka post is auspicious like a f-15 flyover before kickoff imo
― sweet emoticon (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:14 (eleven years ago) link
When Romney loses I hope Guitar Center gets the credit.
― Philip Nunez, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:14 (eleven years ago) link
banaka endorsement seals this for obama imo
― Mordy, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:23 (eleven years ago) link
some concern ought to be expressed wrt banaka's motives for deigning to engage with the individuo-plebiscitic-conscientuous-ameliorative model of 'representative' 'democracy' and whether unpure elements are subverting banaka from within
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:29 (eleven years ago) link
Infecting all voting machines as we speak.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:29 (eleven years ago) link
what is even happening now
― Raymond Cummings, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:30 (eleven years ago) link
The most important erection of USA's life
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:31 (eleven years ago) link
the true path banakan ideology would consider the rigged voting machine as the only article of hope in the abyss, promising as it does the crushing of whimsical feelgood sentiment by the crystalline instrumental logic of the autophagous parasite-host that is capital prior to the singularity
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:42 (eleven years ago) link
will we even have elections after the singularity, wouldn't we just all vote for ourselves and then get on with resonating with the music of the spheres or w/e
― Infamous dickbiscuits (silby), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:44 (eleven years ago) link
that and hunting down subterranean humans iirc
― ut's nutta bull, ut's a *romanda* (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:45 (eleven years ago) link
platonic form of democracy is exercised in the moment that we collectively vote to upload our consciousness to the singularity and that ends history
― Mordy, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:46 (eleven years ago) link
The Singularity implies a quasi-religious eschatological event i.e. "the Rapture for geeks", beyond which one can only speculate. We do not choose to speak of our project in those terms.
― Banaka™ (banaka), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:55 (eleven years ago) link
Trying to follow these four different threads...is like the Seinfeld where the four of them are in four different movie theatres.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:55 (eleven years ago) link
primer-y colours
― ut's nutta bull, ut's a *romanda* (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 03:58 (eleven years ago) link
ya that u's in there what you gonna do, you're all too busy
Y'all in Deus Ex DLC/expansion pack story territory now
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 04:07 (eleven years ago) link
http://isnatesilverawitch.com/
― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 04:28 (eleven years ago) link
throw him in a pond tho
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 04:47 (eleven years ago) link
maybe when he came out his junk would be outlined by his wet trousers
― Infamous dickbiscuits (silby), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 04:50 (eleven years ago) link
"No retreat, no surrender," sang rock icon Bruce Springsteen, warming up Obama's crowd on a frosty morning outside the State Capitol in Madison, Wis. The Boss then boarded Air Force One for his first flight. "Pretty cool," he judged it.Romney had Kid Rock and the Marshall Tucker Band in the wings for his late appearances in Ohio and New Hampshire.
Romney had Kid Rock and the Marshall Tucker Band in the wings for his late appearances in Ohio and New Hampshire.
― pplains, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 05:24 (eleven years ago) link
can't you see, can't you see, what Obama, Lord, he been doin to me
― crüt, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 05:26 (eleven years ago) link
Picturing Kid Rock throwing a shoulder-bump with the Marshall Tucker guys on the tour bus, pitching a "Fire On the Mountain" cover with the guys.
― pplains, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 05:29 (eleven years ago) link
proportional map kinda reassuring
http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_map.png
― all yoga attacks are fire based (rogermexico.), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 06:09 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZHKZPMkx0A
Vid of the President's last campaign rally tonight in Iowa. Bruce introduces Michelle, and her husband's voice is gone to an almost Clinton-rasp.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 07:07 (eleven years ago) link
Enh, this shoulda gone in the other thread, but whaddaya gunna do, we got like 20 hours left
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 07:10 (eleven years ago) link
Last campaign speech he'll ever give (for himself). ;_;
Of course, he'll be campaigning for future Dems until he drops dead I'm sure.
― Johnny Fever, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 07:11 (eleven years ago) link
After 2016, he and Bruce can just tour as a duo act, taking turns as headliner.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 12:43 (eleven years ago) link
w/FL as tossup? maybe not v. reassuring
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 12:53 (eleven years ago) link
don't need florida
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 12:54 (eleven years ago) link
That's true in general. If we can airlift Alfred out, we can let the rest of it go.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:11 (eleven years ago) link
Make the Magic Kingdom a principality, Alfred can be king.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:12 (eleven years ago) link
i like the nyt main story headline right now
"Costly, Bitter Race Is Down to the Voters"
― caek, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:16 (eleven years ago) link
is that right? the proportional map above reads like "yes, need florida," doesn't it?
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:23 (eleven years ago) link
This is a pretty handy graphic of the permutations from the NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-share
― Michael Jones, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:25 (eleven years ago) link
yr eye is misleading you. difficult to judge areas (which is why pie charts are terrible.)
see http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html. give florida to romney and ohio to obama.
― caek, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:26 (eleven years ago) link
already way past 271 electoral votes in the proportional map. florida's 50-50 as far as polls go but very unlikely to be decisive as far as the electoral math goes.
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:27 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah Obama can get to 300+ w/o FL pretty easy. It'd just be icing on the cake.
― Clay, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:37 (eleven years ago) link
intrade up to 71.5% potus
― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 13:59 (eleven years ago) link
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/11/04/tarnished-silver-assessing-the-new-king-of-stats/
ha i forgot about uk 2010 thing. that was major lols.
― caek, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:00 (eleven years ago) link
is there a thread for ppl just to check in to see how it's going or should i start three?
― ut's nutta bull, ut's a *romanda* (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:05 (eleven years ago) link
bobby z is all aboard the o-train
http://news.yahoo.com/bob-dylan-predicts-obama-landslide-061628696.html
― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
thats not bobby z
― ut's nutta bull, ut's a *romanda* (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:09 (eleven years ago) link
Thought you meant Prince's old drummer for a minute.
― C-3PO Sharkey (Phil D.), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:10 (eleven years ago) link
the all important carp fishing vote
― pandemic, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:13 (eleven years ago) link
Darragh: The Choice of a New Denegration: the US Election Day 2012 Thread
― Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:15 (eleven years ago) link
"No retreat, no surrender," sang rock icon Bruce Springsteen, warming up Obama's crowd on a frosty morning outside the State Capitol in Madison, Wis.
iirc, this was Mike Dukakis' rallying cry the day before the '88 election.
(also, Springsteen's "Kitty's Back" was written about Kitty Dukakis)
― 5-Hour Enmity (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 14:32 (eleven years ago) link
aero, today's princeton map should make u happier
http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/presidential-map-election-eve-2012-500px-lores.jpg
― all yoga attacks are fire based (rogermexico.), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 15:23 (eleven years ago) link
that dude colby cosh gets some stuff wrong about pecota. or at least hes kind of misleading abt it
― max, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 15:35 (eleven years ago) link
not that silver isnt probably "overrated" or at least "over-visible" but
this cheered me up, considering the source:
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332590/twilight-or-breaking-dawn-henry-olsen?pg=1
you could say it's olsen being a "mr. me too" re: silver's methodology, but since it's coming from someone who's actively hostile, it's interesting that this rightwinger already sees Romney as toast because of his failure to connect with non-evangelical blue collar midwesterners
― the tune was space, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 15:39 (eleven years ago) link
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSmeUlU6urmKPpu4I_S_VKRNmxSbEaC7he1YlCA-KYOkiyX1ov4BZPregQ
― ^ sarcasm (ken c), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 15:45 (eleven years ago) link
Uuugh why does the 538 forecast keep going down?
― Dan I., Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:13 (eleven years ago) link
preparation for the big reveal... ROMNEY 400EV
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:14 (eleven years ago) link
Running one last projection based on this AM's polls. Our projected margin in Florida now Obama 49.797, Romney 49.775.
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:15 (eleven years ago) link
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRp2lhjUQmYye_keBZM2L8RRufdcGb-Yd_lHxTYHgWSw9dU7iU6
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:16 (eleven years ago) link
plz no florida recount
― Mordy, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
hi guys!
― the little prince of inane false binary hype (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:17 (eleven years ago) link
Obama 49.797, Romney 49.775
FFS
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:18 (eleven years ago) link
2000:48.84748.838
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:20 (eleven years ago) link
Alfred in...Swing Vote.
― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:20 (eleven years ago) link
― max, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 10:35 AM (41 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
if youre suggesting that there should be more stats dues in the media then yes, but as per the current situation where theres a million innumerate pundits and like five dudes running numbers id be happy if he was more visible
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:20 (eleven years ago) link
xxpost Yeah I'm thinking "Wait, how is that surprising, isn't that Florida anyway?"
― Mordy, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 11:17 AM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
come on itll be funny because it wont matter
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:21 (eleven years ago) link
Pretty sure Silver is off by a couple of percentage points. Let me check my math again.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:21 (eleven years ago) link
Yeah, should be:
Obama 49.798Romney 49.774
I would prefer Romney win Florida – just so we avoid a recount.
― the little prince of inane false binary hype (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:22 (eleven years ago) link
he won
http://global.fncstatic.com/static/managed/img/Opinion/110512_romney.jpg
― am0n, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:23 (eleven years ago) link
Did you know that in IL you can apparently challenge any voter at the poll? It'd be fun to be King Asshole PIA Spoiler and just bounce voting station to voting station going "J'accuse!" all willy-nilly.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:23 (eleven years ago) link
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v134/tracerhand/igotthis.jpg
(but do vote, seriously)
― Doctor Casino, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:24 (eleven years ago) link
What's scary to me is how many signs we saw that said 'Vote Pro Choice!' So who cares about policy or the economy??
― JacobSanders, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:24 (eleven years ago) link
UK bookmakers have Obama at 1/5 and Romney at 7/2 to win. They're pretty confident.
― Go Narine, Go! (ShariVari), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:25 (eleven years ago) link
abortion rights are both a policy AND economic issue! xp
― Mordy, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:25 (eleven years ago) link
7 out of 2 ppl damn
― am0n, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:26 (eleven years ago) link
Romney said he'd overturn Roe V. Wade enough times that i think it's fair game to use that against him
― ICY BRO (SPECIAL GUEST) (some dude), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:27 (eleven years ago) link
It might seem like a minor issue to those who don't have to worry about choice being taken away.
― Sug ban (Nicole), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:32 (eleven years ago) link
"policy"?
― difficult listening hour, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:32 (eleven years ago) link
for most of us it will have no effect at all --matt taibbi
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:33 (eleven years ago) link
you can't be serious
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:34 (eleven years ago) link
undecided voters are supposedly 60% female in this election
― ICY BRO (SPECIAL GUEST) (some dude), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:34 (eleven years ago) link
i believe that interracial couples should be prohibited from marrying and that gravity is "just a theory"
which guy should i vote for?
― it's smdh time in America (will), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:38 (eleven years ago) link
I'm not saying abortion is not an issue of policy, but to blindly vote for who ever is pro choice regardless of how their other goals with affect you is crazy to me.
― JacobSanders, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:41 (eleven years ago) link
jill stein iirc xp
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:41 (eleven years ago) link
guys focus on the important thing...in just 7 or 8 hours we'll know whether voters have chosen "Taxi" or "Cheers," and what their favorite "Simpsons" Treehouse of Horror segment is
― ICY BRO (SPECIAL GUEST) (some dude), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:42 (eleven years ago) link
here in downstate IL the local polls have had a fair bit of citizen kops challenging would-be voters on their id creds; US attorney's office is apparently on it.
drove about an hour on I-74 this weekend in IL & every mile there was another NOBAMA sign with a pic of a crying eagle; woulda been sad if it, along with the landscape, weren't so corny
― Euler, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:43 (eleven years ago) link
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, November 6, 2012 11:20 AM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
i just mean that like, silver is not better than, and maybe worse, than linzer and wang and a bunch of the other guys,
― max, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:43 (eleven years ago) link
hes a better explainer of his process/results is basically what it comes down to imho
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:45 (eleven years ago) link
yeah he doesn't necessarily have 'better numbers' but he is good at getting people to understand what matters
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
to blindly vote for who ever is pro choice regardless of how their other goals with affect you is crazy to me.
I'd be really surprised if a pro choice pol did not line up with a huge number of my own political beliefs. Are there many pro-choice candidates who are anti-tax, pro-bombing Iran, pro-right wingers on the Supreme Court, etc?
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
Silver also lets his balls hang out
― the little prince of inane false binary hype (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:46 (eleven years ago) link
I plugged all these guys into my model and nate silver came up as best 58% of the time
romney xp
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:47 (eleven years ago) link
Are there many pro-choice candidates who are anti-tax, pro-bombing Iran, pro-right wingers on the Supreme Court, etc?
my parents! They justify their pro-choice stance as "conservative" – no one should tell her what to do with her body, Mom says.
― the little prince of inane false binary hype (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:47 (eleven years ago) link
so, don't vote for Alfred's parents
― Doctor Casino, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
I wouldn't.
― the little prince of inane false binary hype (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
shit
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
But Repubs want to repeal Roe v. Wade? Have you told them about the Supreme Court?
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:49 (eleven years ago) link
fucked up that alfred never got to xxp
― difficult listening hour, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:50 (eleven years ago) link
"cognitive dissonance" is a term they have trouble with
― the little prince of inane false binary hype (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:51 (eleven years ago) link
Dianne Feinstein
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:52 (eleven years ago) link
Geez, I just realized I got my words mixed up I meant the signs said Vote Pro Life, need more coffee.
― JacobSanders, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:54 (eleven years ago) link
I'm not saying abortion is not an issue of policy, but to blindly vote for who ever is pro life regardless of how their other goals with affect you is crazy to me
― JacobSanders, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 16:56 (eleven years ago) link
i think being pro life is pretty crazy period so
― max, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:02 (eleven years ago) link
sorry "pro-"life""
This came in the mail, how the labors union reaches out to votershttp://farm9.staticflickr.com/8481/8161517827_73790b3f53_z.jpghttp://farm9.staticflickr.com/8485/8161515947_1ea72f33e9_z.jpg
― JacobSanders, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:02 (eleven years ago) link
I vote for whoever wants to do away with the penny, but keep dollar bills. Whatever other luggage that's attached I just live with.
― pplains, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:03 (eleven years ago) link
otm
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:03 (eleven years ago) link
haha '(two days after colorado shooting tragedy)'
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:04 (eleven years ago) link
Our union has a problem of members voting for republicans because they think Obama will take their guns. And other moral issues.
― JacobSanders, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:05 (eleven years ago) link
lol "two days after colorado shooting tragedy"
xposts!
― crüt, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:24 (eleven years ago) link
obama loves guns so much that he just doubles down after a massacre and loves guns even more than he did before
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:27 (eleven years ago) link
Sidenote: I Kinda wish Bruce would play "4th of July Asbury Park (Sandy)."
― Ye Mad Puffin, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:52 (eleven years ago) link
max the euthanasia dispensaaaaaaaaa
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 6 November 2012 17:58 (eleven years ago) link
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Tuesday, November 6, 2012 4:45 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― iatee, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 4:46 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
otm. (not to say the 2010 uk prediction wasn't embarrassingly bad.)
― caek, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 23:30 (eleven years ago) link
you can't expect his shit to work in a country run by a queen
― iatee, Tuesday, 6 November 2012 23:37 (eleven years ago) link
Scared
― ut's nutta bull, ut's a *romanda* (darraghmac), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 06:51 (eleven years ago) link
There there gentle leprechaun.
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 7 November 2012 06:52 (eleven years ago) link
Remove Bookmark from this Thread
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 06:53 (eleven years ago) link
del I would like to reassure you that romney will definitely not win
― CGI fridays (Edward III), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 06:53 (eleven years ago) link
does same
― Elvis Telecom, Wednesday, 7 November 2012 06:56 (eleven years ago) link
feeling p confident
― GOOD LUCK USA! (lag∞n), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 07:09 (eleven years ago) link
LOCK THREAD.
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 07:22 (eleven years ago) link
nah it should be converted to a temple for republican schadenfreude
― CGI fridays (Edward III), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 08:06 (eleven years ago) link
LDS temple?
― ella fingerblast hurls forever (suzy), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 08:19 (eleven years ago) link
Feeling cautiously optimistic about this.
― All hail President Optoisolator (jjjusten), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 08:31 (eleven years ago) link
Ha
― Raymond Cummings, Wednesday, 7 November 2012 11:35 (eleven years ago) link
This will surprise me.
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 12:18 (eleven years ago) link
I'm still scared, guys. Mitt + chloroform-soaked rag + Obama mask. Think about it.
― Come Into My Layer (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 13:01 (eleven years ago) link
I am beginning to become scared that Ryan/Rubio will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?
― pplains, Wednesday, 7 November 2012 15:05 (eleven years ago) link
― Bobby Ken Doll (Eric H.), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 15:06 (eleven years ago) link
71.6% Hillary wins acc to Nate: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
― sug ones (omar little), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 15:08 (eleven years ago) link
pretty good night for the senate
- went from joe lieberman to chris murphy in CT (moderate gain for good guys)- went from richard lugar to joe donnelly in IN (big gain for good guys)- went from olympia snowe to angus king in ME (probably a moderate gain for good guys)- went from president scott brown to elizabeth warren in MA (big gain for good guys)- went from ben nelson to deb fischer in NE (not so good but fuck ben nelson)
looks like the ND seat is still up in the air and i don't know much about the other intra-party seat changes
― all mods con (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 15:52 (eleven years ago) link
lol wrong thred
ben nelson was the final vote for Obamacare
― beef richards (Mr. Que), Wednesday, 7 November 2012 15:52 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/politics/mitt-romney-black-lives-matter-protest/index.html
― pomenitul, Monday, 8 June 2020 02:58 (three years ago) link
Way to finally start catchin up to where yr fucken dad was fifty years ago, there, Mitt.
― Fun-Loving and Furry-Curious! (Old Lunch), Monday, 8 June 2020 03:53 (three years ago) link
no shock that so many Republican Congressmen were fratboys, since they routinely enjoy debasing themselves for others' approval
― I am a free. I am not man. A number. (Neanderthal), Monday, 8 June 2020 03:55 (three years ago) link